Exploring the future of ecological genomics: Integrating CTA with vision assessment

Interactive approaches to technology development provide opportunities for the development of innovative technologies which clearly connect with social practices and address the positive and negative effects as perceived by relevant actors. The challenge is to start an interactive approach early in the development of new technologies, when many options are still open for exploration and there are good possibilities for steering. Early involvement of societal actors is, however, challenged by the absence of concrete applications on which they can develop their own visions from the perspective of their own needs, interests, norms and values. Integrating Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) with vision assessment is proposed as an approach to overcome this dilemma in the field of ecological genomics and bridge the knowledge gap between parties closely involved with ecogenomics research and other relevant actors. We present, evaluate and discuss the process of identifying guiding visions of the technology developers as a first step in this approach and end with some suggestions on how desirable futures for ecogenomics can subsequently be assessed from the perspectives of different actors.     

From ecological footprint to ecological rent: An economic indicator for resource constraints

This paper takes as a starting point a combination of an input-output model with a national Ecological Footprint account for Germany in the spirit of Wiedmann et al. [Wiedmann, T., Minx, J., Barrett, J., Wackernagel, M., 2006. Allocating ecological footprints to final consumption categories with input-output analysis. Ecological Economics. 56, 28-48]. Footprint as well as Biocapacity is dealt with at the industry level. Gross output of each industry and final demand for each industry can then be split up into a share that is reconcilable with Biocapacity and another share that corresponds to the ‘Ecological Deficit’. The Ecological Footprint concept is extended in this study by introducing the additional biocapacity necessary for sustaining the given level of economic activity. It is assumed that each industry had to rent the corresponding areas and to apply a given technology in order to make this additional land biophysically productive. That results in an additional technology for each industry leading to an increase in costs and prices. The new price level is directly linked to the share of output that corresponds to Biocapacity overshooting, which is defined by the ‘Ecological Deficit’. Economic indicators can be derived by measuring the income difference brought about by the price increase. This difference corresponds to a Ricardian rent which is due to resource constraints on output growth.     

Human appropriation of natural capital: A comparison of ecological footprint and water footprint analysis

The water footprint concept introduced in 2002 is an analogue of the ecological footprint concept originating from the 1990s. Whereas the ecological footprint (EF) denotes the bioproductive area (hectares) needed to sustain a population, the water footprint (WF) represents the freshwater volume (cubic metres per year) required. In elaborating the WF concept into a well-defined quantifiable indicator, a number of methodological issues have been addressed, with many similarities to the methodological concerns in EF analysis. The methodology followed in WF studies is in most cases analogous to the methodology taken in EF studies, but deviates at some points. Well-reasoned it has been chosen for instance to specifically take into account the source and production circumstances of products and assess the actual water use involved, thus not taking global averages. As a result one can exactly localise the spatial distribution of a water footprint of a country. With respect to the outcome of the footprint estimates, one can see both similarities and striking differences. Food consumption for instance contributes significantly to both the EF and the WF, but mobility (and associated energy use) is very important only for the EF. From a sustainability perspective, the WF of a country tells another story and thus at times will put particular development strategies in a different perspective. The paper reviews and compares the methodologies in EF and WF studies, compares nation's footprint estimates and suggests how the two concepts can be interpreted in relation to one another. The key conclusion is that the two concepts are to be regarded as complementary in the sustainability debate.     

农村劳动力流动的过去、现在和未来

回顾新中国成立以来农村劳动力流动的历史,世界上还没有哪个国家像中国一样,在推进现代化过程中,伴随如此大规模人口的迁移,并且在今后很长一段时间还将继续保持,并指出农村劳动力流动对中国的经济崛起发挥了重要作用。而当前农村劳动力转移也在发生变化,这是基于中国的政策变迁、地方政府行为和劳动者自身行为的变化所导致的。未来中国的城市化和工业化能否深度推进,农村劳动力流动起着重要作用。适时调整政策以适应农村劳动力流动的变迁将是对中国政府新的考验,如果成功,将走出中国独特的农村劳动力迁移道路。     

The past and future of knowledge-based growth

This paper consolidates two previously disconnected literatures. It integrates R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The theory suggests a refined view on the human factor in productivity growth. It helps to explain the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The model predicts that the erstwhile positive correlation between population growth and innovative activity turns negative during economic development. This “population-productivity reversal” explains why innovative modern economies are usually characterized by low or negative population growth. Because innovations in modern economies are based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth—when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries—are better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories.     

Portuguese Economic Journal,past and future

Portuguese Economic Journal - This article is a contribution to the history of the creation of the PEJ, officially launched in 1999. It bears witness to the context in which research in economics...     

Application of ecological footprint in ecological industrial systems：a study case of maize-MSG production systems

To improve the comparability of the research results of ecological industry, the ecological footprint is appliedto analyze the resource utilization and environmental pollution in various subsystems, taking maize-MSG as a case.Results show that the production process from maize to MSG is a extended process of ecological footprint, and that theecological footprint of the maize production is the biggest; the extension of ecological footprint is followed by the increaseof footprint profit, which means that the extension of production chain is an important method to improve the resourcesprofit; the systems have a big proportion of the indirect energy ecological footprint; the air and water pollution in MSGsubsystem is the most serious. At last, it can be identified that ecological footprint is a good method to measure resourceutilization and environmental pollution in various subsystems of an integrated ecological industry.     

Evaluating the effects of embodied energy in international trade on ecological footprint in China

Based on sub-sectoral level of economy and detailed traded items, embodied energy (EE) in international trade flow in China is estimated during 1996-2004, and the effects of EE on sustainability are quantified by using one of the most popular indicators—Ecological footprint (EF). A framework of EF method, which is more relevant to realism of specific country, is proposed in this paper. The results show that China is a net importer of EE during the period covered by this study except for the year from 1997 to 1999. Imported, Exported and Net imported EE tends to increase sharply along time series. Net imported energy would increase 38% and energy consumption would increase 2.8% in 2004 if EE were taken into account. Footprint_energy is the most important part of EF components and is significantly affected by EE, and the effects of EE on EF are similar to that of Footprint_energy. Footprint_energy, EF and ecological deficit of 2004 will be underestimated about 2.92%, 1.36%, 2.83%, res pectively, if EE is not taken into the national energy budget. Continuous increase of EF and ecological deficit along time series indicates that China is moving away from sustainability. 1.47 times Chinese territories are accurately occupied by China in 1996 while 1.71 times in 2004. Obviously unsustainability procedure of China is accelerated by EE. The contribution of EE to EF and ecological deficit is small in absolute terms expressed in per capita, but the effects on whole nation are huge if the population of China multiplies them. To curb the increase of EF and ecological deficit and to achieve the goal of sustainability, some policy and measures are also proposed.     

A consumption-based approach to environmental Kuznets curves using the ecological footprint indicator

Recent research suggests that consumption-based measures offer an insightful perspective on the debate on the relationship between economic growth and the environment. In this article we deepen the consumption-based line of inquiry by investigating the empirical evidence in support of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis using 2001 ecological footprint data for 141 countries. We perform Ordinary Least Squares and Weighted Least Squares analysis on linear, quadratic and cubic functions, in standard and logarithmic specifications, as candidate models to represent the relationship between per capita income and environmental pressure. We replicate the cross country analysis also by estimating the regression function directly, through a nonparametric regression. In our analyses, with and without weighing data by population, the results do not show evidence of de-linking.     

Measuring sustainability: Why the ecological footprint is bad economics and bad environmental science

The ecological footprint is a measure of the resources necessary to produce the goods that an individual or population consumes. It is also used as a measure of sustainability, though evidence suggests that it falls short. The assumptions behind footprint calculations have been extensively criticized; I present here further evidence that it fails to satisfy simple economic principles because the basic assumptions are contradicted by both theory and historical data. Specifically, I argue that the footprint arbitrarily assumes both zero greenhouse gas emissions, which may not be ex ante optimal, and national boundaries, which makes extrapolating from the average ecological footprint problematic. The footprint also cannot take into account intensive production, and so comparisons to biocapacity are erroneous. Using only the assumptions of the footprint then, one could argue that the Earth can sustain greatly increased production, though there are important limitations that the footprint cannot address, such as land degradation. Finally, the lack of correlation between land degradation and the ecological footprint obscures the effects of a larger sustainability problem. Better measures of sustainability would address these issues directly.     

Measuring sustainability: Why the ecological footprint is bad economics and bad environmental science

The ecological footprint is a measure of the resources necessary to produce the goods that an individual or population consumes. It is also used as a measure of sustainability, though evidence suggests that it falls short. The assumptions behind footprint calculations have been extensively criticized; I present here further evidence that it fails to satisfy simple economic principles because the basic assumptions are contradicted by both theory and historical data. Specifically, I argue that the footprint arbitrarily assumes both zero greenhouse gas emissions, which may not be ex ante optimal, and national boundaries, which makes extrapolating from the average ecological footprint problematic. The footprint also cannot take into account intensive production, and so comparisons to biocapacity are erroneous. Using only the assumptions of the footprint then, one could argue that the Earth can sustain greatly increased production, though there are important limitations that the footprint cannot address, such as land degradation. Finally, the lack of correlation between land degradation and the ecological footprint obscures the effects of a larger sustainability problem. Better measures of sustainability would address these issues directly.     

基于生态足迹理论的天津市可持续发展动态研究

利用生态足迹分析方法对天津市1989—2008年的生态足迹进行了计算和分析。计算结果表明：天津市人均生态足迹由1989年的1.64 hm2上升到2008年的1.65 hm2;同期的人均生态承载力则由0.27 hm2逐年上升到0.32 hm2;人均生态赤字由1.36 hm2降到1.32 hm2。虽然天津市人口对自然资源的利用呈下降趋势、生态足迹与生态承载力之间的矛盾有所减缓,但生态足迹目前仍然超出了自然生态系统的生态承载力范围,现有的发展模式是不可持续的,生态环境处于较不安全的状态。     

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

Spatial welfare economics versus ecological footprint: modeling agglomeration,externalities and trade

A welfare framework for the analysis of the spatial dimensions of sustainability is developed. It covers agglomeration effects, interregional trade, negative environmental externalities, and various land use categories. The model is used to compare rankings of spatial configurations according to evaluations based on social welfare and ecological footprint indicators. Five spatial configurations are considered for this purpose. The exercise is operationalized with the help of a two-region model of the economy, that is, in line with the ‘new economic geography.’ By generating a number of numerical ‘counter-examples,’ it is shown that the footprint method is inconsistent with an approach aimed at maximum social welfare. Unless environmental externalities are such a large problem that they overwhelm all other components of economic well-being, a ‘spatial welfare economic’ approach delivers totally different rankings of alternative land use configurations than the ecological footprint.      

Considering the effects of imprecision and uncertainty in ecological footprint estimation: An approach in a fuzzy environment

This paper demonstrates the development of the Ecological Footprint within a fuzzy environment. The approach taken provides a means to understand the impacts of imprecision and uncertainty in the input-output framework, which forms a cornerstone of many recently constructed Footprint estimates. The paper uses, as a basis, an example of Footprint construction presented in the paper of Bicknell et al. [Bicknell, K.B., Ball, R.J., Cullen, R., Bigsby, H.R., 1998. New methodology for the Ecological Footprint with an application to the New Zealand economy. Ecological Economics 27, 149-160]. The analysis considers levels of fuzziness surrounding the technical coefficients in the underlying input-output framework. The results presented fully exposit the effect of the defined analysis, including the presentation of; fuzzy sector Ecological Footprints and overall fuzzy Ecological Footprint. Accompanying these findings, the fuzzy versions of certain moments associated with these Footprints are also presented, namely possibilistic mean and variance. The findings contribute to the elucidation of the potential policy impacts afforded when acknowledging imprecision and uncertainty in the data used in estimating Ecological Footprints.