Cross-border transmission of stock price volatility: evidence from the overlapping trading hours

Using high-frequency (5-minute returns) data, the transmission pattern of intraday volatility among three international stock markets (i.e., the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada) during their overlapping trading hours (9:30–11:30 a.m. New York time). The major findings are as follows. First, the conditional variance of a domestic market is affected not only by the volatility surprises of its own market, but also by those of foreign markets. This finding holds for the United States as well as for Canada and the United Kingdom, implying that the information contained in the volatility surprises of each national market is clearly transmitted to other national markets. The volatility spillover is not unidirectional. Second, the magnitude of volatility spillover does not decrease monotonically as the lag length increases, indicating that the effect of a foreign volatility shock on the conditional variance of the domestic market tends to persist.     

Contemporaneous ADR pricing: intraday dynamics during overlapping trading hours

We contribute to the literature by identifying and accurately measuring the drivers of American depositary receipt (ADR) returns contemporaneously across various global time zones. We consider ADRs as two inherently distinct asset classes – stocks and currencies – bundled into one. Throughout, we use a relatively refined, focused, and synchronized minute-by-minute data set on ADRs and all other variables. ADRs from all countries with regular trading hours that overlap with those of the US are considered individually and in clusters. We analyze the interplay of several factors that influence ADRs pricing patterns. Further, we investigate whether such patterns vary by currency, ADR, industry, and emerging/developed market classifications. Our findings indicate that synchronized returns on underlying shares comprise 68.5–74% of the explained returns in ADRs. The remaining 31.5–26% of returns are generated by movements in currency rates. These results are robust across the several models and estimation methods employed. Our findings also show persistent small price discrepancies between ADRs and dollar-adjusted underlying shares on a minute-by-minute basis, implying possible arbitrage opportunities. However, we conclude that trading and ADR conversion costs render such opportunities unattractive.     

A common factor analysis for the US and the German stock markets during overlapping trading hours

We employ a bivariate common factor model to establish a permanent-transitory decomposition of two major stock indices (the Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) for Germany and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for the United States). Using high-frequency data, we (1) identify a common trend shared by both indices, (2) find that the DJIA contributes up to 95% to the total innovation of the common factor, (3) show that both markets adjust within minutes to a system-wide shock, and (4) verify by hypothesis testing that the DJIA is the driving force in the transatlantic system of stock indices.     

Insider employee stock option trading and stock prices

The question of which factors determine corporate bonds pricing is investigated by analysing the spreads of eurobonds issued by major G-10 companies during the 1991–2001 period. Three main results emerge from the analysis. First, bond ratings appear as the most important determinant of yield spreads, with investors’ reliance on rating agencies judgments increasing over time. Second, the primary market efficiency and the expected secondary market liquidity are not relevant explanatory factors of spreads cross-sectional variability. Finally, rating agencies adopt a different, ‘through the cycle’, evaluation criteria of default risk with respect to the forward looking one adopted by bond investors.     

Social media and price discovery: The case of cross-listed firms

In this article, we examine whether social media information affects the price-discovery process for cross-listed companies. Using over 29 million overnight tweets mentioning cross-listed companies, we examine the role of social media for a link between the last periods of trading in the US markets and the first periods in the UK market. Our estimates suggest that the size and content of information flows on social networks support the price-discovery process. The interactions between lagged US stock features and overnight tweets significantly affect stock returns and volatility of cross-listed stocks when the UK market opens. These effects weaken and disappear 1 to 3 hr after the opening of the UK market. We also develop a profitable trading strategy based on overnight social media, and the profits remain economically significant after considering transaction costs.     

The determinants of price discovery: Evidence from US-Canadian cross-listed shares

We examine the determinants of price discovery for Canadian firms cross-listed on the main US stock exchanges over the period 1996–2011. Sampling at a one-minute frequency, we compute Gonzalo and Granger Component Shares (CS) and employ a system GMM approach to control for persistence in price discovery and endogeneity between CS and its determinants. We find that price discovery is highly persistent and that there is strong evidence of simultaneity between CS and its determinants. We conclude that lower relative spreads and higher relative trading activity increase an exchange’s contribution to price discovery. We also document that it is small trades that drive price discovery, particularly since the introduction of decimalization.     

Dynamic relationship between exchange rate and stock price: Evidence from China

The paper empirically analyzes the dynamic relationship between Renminbi (RMB) real effective exchange rate and stock price with VAR and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models using monthly data from January 1991 to June 2009. The results show that there is not a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and stock price. There are also not mean spillovers between the foreign exchange and stock markets. Furthermore, the paper examines the cross-volatility effects between foreign exchange and stock markets using likelihood ratio statistic. There exist the bidirection volatility spillovers effects between the two markets, indicating the past innovations in stock market have the great effect on future volatility in foreign exchange market, and vice versa.     

Corporate cash flow and stock price exposures to foreign exchange rate risk

This paper estimates the foreign exchange rate exposure of 6917 U.S. nonfinancial firms on the basis of stock prices and corporate cash flows. The results show that several firms are significantly exposed to at least one of the foreign exchange rates Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and Euro, and significant exposures are more frequent at longer horizons. The percentage of firms for which stock price and earnings exposures are significantly different is relatively low, though it increases with time horizon. Overall, the impact of exchange rate risk on stock prices and cash flows is similar and determined by a related set of economic factors.     

Dollar exchange rate and stock price: evidence from multivariate cointegration and error correction model

In this paper, we investigate existence of long-run equilibrium relationships among the aggregate stock price, industrial production, real exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation in the United States. Applying Johansen's cointegration analysis to monthly data for the 1974:01-1998:12 period, we find that the S&P 500 stock price is positively related to the industrial production but negatively to the real exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation. Analysis of error correction mechanism reveals that the stock price, industrial production, and inflation adjust to correct disequilibrium among the five variables, while variance decompositions indicate that the stock price is driven to a considerable extent by innovations in the interest rate. Structural stability tests show that the parameters of the cointegrating system and the error correction term are stationary.     

The dynamics of price discovery for cross-listed shares: Evidence from Australia and New Zealand

This paper studies the dynamics of price discovery for markets with bilateral cross-listings. Using a sample of four Australian stocks cross-listed in New Zealand and five New Zealand stocks cross-listed in Australia for the period January 2002 to December 2007, we assess Hasbrouck (1995) information shares and Grammig et al. (2005) conditional information shares over time. We observe that in both cases the home market is dominant in terms of price discovery. However, when studying price discovery over time, we find that the importance of the Australian market (the larger of the two markets) is increasing for both Australian and New Zealand domiciled firms. Finally, using panel regression analysis, we find that the growth in the importance of the Australian market is positively related to the growth in the size of the firm and negatively related to the size of the percentage spread in the Australian market, implying that as firms grow larger and their cost of trading in Australia declines, the Australian market becomes more informative.     

Price reversals versus price continuations: the transitory price effects of futures trading extension on the underlying stock market

This paper examines the transitory price effects of index futures trading extension on the underlying stock market. Based on the model formulation of George and Hwang (1995) and Amihud and Mendelson (1987) and using the Hong Kong data, we find that the extension of futures trading hour helps to reduce the opening pricing errors and change the correlations between daytime and overnight stock returns. Our finding adds to the literature that the trading behavior of derivatives has a significant influence on the transitory price changes of the underlying cash products.

The effects of changes in index composition on stock prices and volume: Evidence from the Istanbul stock exchange

Previous evidence has shown that stocks included in (excluded from) an index exhibit significant positive (negative) abnormal returns on the announcement day, and that trading volume is affected by the event. This study examines the price and volume effects on stocks associated with the changes in the value-weighted index composition of two indices, of the ISE, where the index funds and index derivatives do not exist. Consistent with previous evidence, stocks included in (excluded from) the index tend to generate positive (negative) abnormal returns in ISE. Volume and volume volatility are also significantly affected. Our results seem to support the hypotheses of price-pressure, imperfect substitute and attention due to the lack of index-funds and derivatives market in Turkey.     

Systematic risk, and oil price and exchange rate sensitivities in Asia-Pacific stock markets

This paper examines the relationship between beta risk and realized stock index return in the presence of oil and exchange rate sensitivities for 15 countries in the Asia-Pacific region using the international factor model. Thirteen of the 15 countries have the expected beta signs and show significant sensitivity to domestic risk when the world stock market is in both up and down modes. In terms of oil sensitivity, only the Philippines and South Korea are oil-sensitive to changes in the oil price in the short run, when the price is expressed in local currency only. Basically no country shows sensitivity to oil price measured in US dollar regardless whether the oil market is up or down. Nine countries are affected by changes in the exchange rate. In terms of relative factor sensitivity distribution, one is willing to conclude that these stock markets are more conditionally sensitive to local currency oil price changes than to beta risk wherever the relationships are significant.     

Options trading volume and stock price response to earnings announcements

We examine the effect of options trading volume on the stock price response to earnings announcements over the period 1996–2007. Contrary to previous studies, we find no significant difference in the immediate stock price response to earnings information announcements in samples split between firms with listed options and firms without listed options. However, within the sample of firms with listed options stratified by options volume, we find that higher options trading volume reduces the immediate stock price response to earnings announcements. This conforms with evidence that stock prices of high options trading volume firms have anticipated and pre-empted some earnings information in the pre-announcement period. We also find that higher abnormal options trading volume around earnings announcements hastens the stock price adjustment to earnings news and reduces post-earnings announcement drift.     

A comparison of trading and non-trading mechanisms for price discovery

This paper compares trading and non-trading mechanisms for price discovery during the Nasdaq pre-open and examines whether prices discovered though non-trading mechanisms are less efficient or reveal less information than prices discovered through trading. As Nasdaq pre-open trading volume increased, the opening price became more efficient and price discovery shifted from the opening trade to the pre-open. Price discovery shifted from the trading day to the pre-open only for the highest-volume stocks. These results suggest that pre-open trading contributes to the efficiency of the opening price, but that a critical threshold of trading volume is required to increase the amount of information in the opening price.     

Macroeconomic news announcements and price discovery: Evidence from Canadian–U.S. cross-listed firms

This study employs macroeconomic news announcements as a proxy for new information arrivals and examines their impact on price discovery. We compare the price discovery of 38 Canadian companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) for the period 2004–2011. First, we observe that price discovery shifts significantly during macroeconomic news announcement days. Second, the NYSE becomes more important in terms of price discovery, regardless of the origin of the news. Third, we examine the relation between price discovery and market microstructure variables. After controlling for liquidity shocks, we find that the impact of news announcements persists. Intraday analyses of price discovery on periods surrounding news releases further support these findings. Overall, our findings suggest that there is a difference in information-processing capability of the two markets, with the U.S. market being better at processing information than the Canadian market during macroeconomic news announcements.     

The relationship between stock price index and exchange rate in Asian markets: A quantile regression approach

This paper uses the data of six Asian countries to estimate the relationship between stock price index and exchange rate. According to the portfolio balance effect, these two variables should be negatively related. However, since the evidence from traditional ordinary least squares estimation is not favorable, the quantile regression model is adopted to observe the various relationships between stock and foreign exchange markets. The results show an interesting pattern in the relation of these two markets in Asia, which indicates that the negative relation between stock and foreign exchange markets is more obvious when exchange rates are extremely high or low.     

Optimal stock trading with personal taxes: Implications for prices and the abnormal January returns

The tax law confers upon the investor a timing option - to realize capital losses and defer capital gains. With the tax rate on long term gains and losses being about half the short term rate, the law provides a second timing option - to realize losses short term and gains long term, if at all. Our theory and simulation over the 1962–1977 period establish that taxable investors should realize long term gains in high variance stocks and repurchase stock in order to realize potential future losses short term. Tax trading does not explain the small-firm anomaly but predicts a seasonal pattern in trading volume which maps into a seasonal pattern in stock prices, the January anomaly, only if investors are irrational or ignorant of the price seasonality.     

Downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices

We examined downside and upside risk spillovers from exchange rates to stock prices and vice versa for a set of emerging economies. We characterized the dependence structure between currency and stock returns using copulas and computed downside and upside value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk. We documented a positive relationship between stock prices and currency values in emerging economies with respect to the US dollar and the euro, with downside and upside spillover risk effects transmitted both ways. Finally, we also documented asymmetries in upside and downside risk spillovers and asymmetric differences in the size of risk spillovers when the domestic currency values against the US dollar and the euro. Our results, consistent with flight-to-quality phenomena, have implications for downside and upside risk management of international investor portfolios in emerging markets.     

投资物价再度升温汇率股价攀高震荡——2008年宏观经济金融形势分析与预测

2007年固定资产投资同比增速虽有所下降,但在地方政府换届、企业盈利增长等因素的推动下,2008年固定资产投资将再度升温.虽然目前尚未出现全面通货膨胀,但2008年物价上涨压力不容忽视,通货膨胀威胁增大.2007年以来人民币对美元汇率升值加速,但对欧元和日元却相对贬值,导致人民币实际有效汇率升值有限,2008年人民币升值步伐会有所加快,但不会迅速地大幅度升值,汇率水平将呈现攀高震荡格局.2007年股票市场在持续攀高之后出现大幅震荡,预计2008年股票市场牛市格局不会变,股价震荡可能加大.