Convergence in car prices among European countries

This article contributes to the literature on price convergence in Europe by investigating the existence of stochastic and deterministic convergence of car prices in the EU15 countries. We apply recently developed econometric techniques that allow for multiple structural breaks to an up-to-date dataset. We find considerable evidence of both types of convergence in our sample of countries and car models, therefore suggesting a tendency for relative prices to equalize over time. In addition, we find evidence regarding the importance in this convergence process of both legislative changes taking place in the years 1996 and 2002, and the implementation of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).     

Spatial heterogeneity and interregional spillovers in the European Union: Do cohesion policies encourage convergence across regions?

Using a spatial econometric perspective, the speed of convergence for a sample of 163 regions of the European Union (EU) over the period 1981–1996 is estimated. For this purpose, we use a specification strategy which allows an explicit modeling of both spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation found in the analyzed sample. The estimated final model combines groupwise heterocedasticity, the identification of two spatial regimes and spatial dependence. Our results show how an appropriate consideration of the role of spatial effects can shed new insights into the European convergence process. We find that regions in the EU cohesion-fund countries (Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain) are converging separately from the rest of regions of the EU. Our estimations indicate that over the analyzed period, there was a faster conditional convergence in relative income levels of the regions belonging to Cohesion countries (5.3%) than in the rest of the regions of the EU (3.3%). Therefore, our results contrast with other evidence that points to the fact that the convergence process in Europe has weakened or even has stopped at the beginning of the 1980s. Moreover, our work shows clear evidence of separate spatial convergence clubs among EU regions.     

转移支付与地区经济收敛

转移支付是政府调节区域经济的重要政策手段 ,本文分析了 1 994年新财税体制改革以后转移支付与地区经济收敛的关系 ,发现转移支付总体上没有达到缩小地区差距的效果 ;对转移支付决定的因素分析 ,则解释了现行转移支付不能缩小地区差距的原因 ,最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

Convergence,technological interdependence and spatial externalities: a spatial dynamic panel data analysis

This study adopts a spatial dynamic panel data approach and spatial quasi-maximum likelihood to re-estimate the speed of growth convergence in 91 countries based on technological interdependence and spatial externalities. We perform a conditional Lagrange multiplier test for spatial error dependence and find some differences to previous studies. First, the switch from a cross-sectional to a dynamic panel data framework enables the estimated rate of conditional convergence to be higher, more accurate and more appropriate for realistic and theoretical expectations. Second, the spatial Durbin model (SDM) is a general form of simplified model that considers spatial error correlation, and its likelihood ratio test for the theoretical model of ‘learning by doing’ effect provides further evidence. Finally, statistical tests find that spatial correlation not only occurs in each variable, but also appears in the error term. Thus, the SDM does not exist in the assumptions associated with the spatial error, which are not necessarily correct.     

Beyond GDP: an analysis of the socio-economic diversity of European regions

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to analyze the socioeconomic diversity of the European Union (EU-28) regions from a dynamic perspective. For that purpose, we combine a series of exploratory space-time analysis approaches to multiple Factor Analysis (MFA) applied to a large range of indicators collected at the NUTS-2 level for the period 2000–2015 for the EU-28. First, we find that the first factor of MFA, interpreted as economic development (ECO-DEV), is spatially clustered and that a moderate convergence process is at work between European regions from 2000 to 2015. Second, when comparing these results with those obtained for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, we show that the convergence pattern detected with GDP per capita is more pronounced: ECO-DEV adjusts slower over time compared to GDP per capita. Third, pictures provided by the remaining interesting factors, capturing educational attainment, population dynamics and employment, are very different.     

Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Convergence Approach

This paper estimates dynamic effects of public capital on output per capita. Based on an open economy growth model, I derive a version of the income convergence equation augmented with public capital. This equation is estimated using panel data of United States and Japanese regions. Sensible results are obtained when public capital is disaggregated into components. In both countries, the infrastructure component of public capital turns out to have significantly positive effects. The implied elasticity of output with respect to infrastructure is somewhere around 0.1 to 0.15. This suggests a modest contribution of infrastructure to postwar growth of the two countries.     

Price convergence across regions in India

The paper attempts to examine whether there is price convergence across various regions in India. Using panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-sectional dependence, it is found that relative price levels among various regions in India are mean-reverting. Further, we decompose each series into a set of common factors and idiosyncratic components. The decomposition enables us to test stationarity and estimate half-lives of the common factors and the idiosyncratic components separately. Both these components are found to be stationary. Idiosyncratic price shocks, however, are found to be more persistent as compared to the common factor. Results also indicate that transportation cost proxied by distance can explain a part of the variation in prices between two locations in India. The authors would like to thank Dibyendu Bhaumik for arranging the data for this study. Views expresed in the paper are personal and do not reflect the views of the organizations.     

Convergence and spillover of house prices in Chinese cities

The issue of house price convergence in 34 Chinese cities is investigated. We augmented the convergence model with contemporaneous spatial dependence in house prices and found that price convergence and positive spatial spillover are both present. We explicitly addressed the endogeneity problem by introducing a Bayesian instrumental variable setup, which was estimated with particle filtering techniques. From a growth poles perspective, the empirical evidence indicates that the spread effect in regional house prices outweighs the backwash effect. The identified positive spatial spillover has two effects on the growth of house prices in Chinese cities. First, the spillover elevates the trajectories of the steady-state growth paths of house prices. Second, the spillover narrows the gaps between the growth paths of house prices in neighbouring cities. Shocks to the socio-economic variables of a city generate their own effects on domestic house prices that dominate the effects arising from cross-city price feedbacks, thus mitigating the prospect of level convergence. Our findings also suggest a collaborating role between time and spatial dependence parameters. The identification of inter-city spillover, which is a conditioning factor for regional house price convergence, offers implications to policies that are most likely to be effective in reducing regional disparity.     

Are U.S. regions converging? Using new econometric methods to examine old issues

Are different regions of the United States experiencing convergence in levels of GDP? Carlino and Mills (1993) examined this question through time-series techniques, and found some evidence in favor of regional convergence. This paper checks the robustness of their results by using new econometric methods proposed by Vogelsang (1998). Our results, together with results from Loewy and Papell (1996), suggest there is stronger evidence in favor of convergence than previously thought based on the results of Carlino and Mills (1993). First version received: September 2000/Final version received: December 2000     

Convergence in a Two-Sector Nonscale Growth Model

Much of the convergence debate has focused solely on output. Recent empirical evidence suggests that crucial inputs, such as technology and capital, may exhibit markedly distinct convergence patterns. We examine the convergence characteristics of a two-sector nonscale model of growth that features population growth and endogenous technology. The model replicates key economic ratios and speeds of convergence with relative ease. Most important, however, is that capital and technology differ strikingly in their convergence paths and speeds. The nonconstancy of the convergence rates and the nonproportionality of the endogenous variables during transition suggests further refinements for the empirical tests of convergence.     

Real Convergence and European Integration: The Experience of the Less Developed EU Members

This study aims at providing an assessment about real convergence across countriesand regions in the EU, focusing more specifically on the four cohesion EU members.The results show that in the course of the last few years a process of convergence hastaken place between the per capita income levels of the EU regions and also, to a largerextent, of the Member States. Nevertheless, advances in real convergence are largelydetermined by the growth strategy implemented by the countries themselves. Lastly,our study suggests that the Community's regional policy has played a significant rolein favor of real convergence between the Member States of the EU. One importantlesson to be drawn is that the accession is likely to contribute significantly to improvingthe possibilities of the current Central and East European countries (CEECs) candidatesin aligning their per capita income levels with those of the EU members.     

A bottom-up approach for forecasting GDP in a data-rich environment

In an increasingly data-rich environment, the use of factor models for forecasting purposes has gained prominence in the literature and among practitioners. Herein, we assess the forecasting behaviour of factor models to predict several GDP components and investigate the performance of a bottom-up approach to forecast GDP growth in Portugal, which was one of the hardest hit economies during the latest economic and financial crisis. We find supporting evidence of the usefulness of factor models and noteworthy forecasting gains when conducting a bottom-approach drawing on the main aggregates of GDP.     

Decentralisation and income inequality in Central and Eastern European countries

This paper provides empirical evidence for the association between fiscal decentralisation and income distribution for a panel of 11 economies from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) during 1992–2016. We focus on three research topics: the effect of decentralisation on income inequality; the effects of the structure of subnational government finance on income inequality; and the validity of the Kuznets hypothesis. The main findings from the empirical exercise are as follows: first, we provide firm evidence on the presumed favourable effects of fiscal decentralisation on income distribution in the CEE countries; second, our empirical model suggests that the effects of fiscal decentralisation on income inequality are dependent on the source of finance of subnational governments, i.e. intergovernmental transfers may have a role in income equalisation; third, we cannot confirm the validity of the Kuznets hypothesis in CEE countries.     

Comparative performances of EU-15 and Turkey: a PIN analysis

Turkey started the accession process with European Union (EU) in 2005. One of the main topics of EU Turkey negotiations was the economic convergence of Turkey to EU norms. This study devises and uses Panel Index Numbers (PIN) analysis to evaluate the performance and convergence prospects of Turkish economy in the face of EU-15 economies. As evaluation areas, we have selected two main macroeconomic indicators as GDP and Export. Our results have shown that, for both indicators, Turkish economy outperforms rest of the EU-15 economies, a point that should be valuable in the process of accession.     

Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis

Abstract

Using panel data unit root tests and panel cointegration tests, as well as estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels such as the full modified OLS, this paper re-examines the long-run co-movement and the causal relationship between GDP and social security expenditure in a bivariate model, employing data on 25 OECD countries from 1980 to 2001. Our cointegration test results show strong evidence in favour of the existence of a long-run equilibrium cointegrating relationship between GDP and social security expenditure after allowing for a heterogeneous country effect. Regarding the panel-based error correction model, we find that GDP and social security expenditure lack short-run causality, but reveal the existence of long-run bidirectional causality. This shows that, in the long run, economic growth must be based on a social welfare policy that should be carried out, and economic growth can facilitate contiguous development in a social welfare policy. Lastly, we also provide evidence to support that social security expenditure can affect growth through the savings and human capital accumulation in OECD countries.     

Robotization and labour dislocation in the manufacturing sectors of OECD countries: a panel VAR approach

Robots are the most important innovation which has affected the production process in the last three decades. Thanks to the latest advances in technology, they have been able to perform an ever-increasing number of tasks, eventually replacing human work within the whole production process. However, because of the scarcity of suitable data, the extent of this potentially disrupting process is not fully assessed. This paper makes up for the lack of empirical evidence on the effect of robotization on labour dislocation using data collected by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) on the number of robots installed in the different manufacturing industries of 16 OECD countries over the period 2011–2016. We show that at the industry level a 1% growth in the number of robots reduces the growth rate of worked hours by 0.16, as well as the selling prices and the real values of the compensations of employees. Moreover, we show that a given sector is more likely to be robotized when it is expanding both in terms of relative prices and employee compensations. We conclude that, at least in the selected countries, the introduction of robots plays a key role in slowing down human labour and compensation growth.     

中国区域技术效率的空间收敛性分析：1994—2008

空间计量经济学认为一个地区空间单元上的同一现象或属性值与邻近地区空间单元上同一现象或属性值是相关的。文章通过对我国地区技术效率的空间依赖性检验发现我国地区技术效率存在显著的空间依赖性。因此本文在地区技术效率宅间依赖性的基础上对我国地区技术效率的收敛性及其影响因素进行了分析,实证结果表明我国地区技求效率存在显著的条件收敛性,其中地区对外开放水平、资源禀赋条件、市场化程度是我国地区技术效率趋异的重要因素;而地区工业化水平、人力资本水平、科技投入水平则是促进我国妯区技术效率趋同的雷辱陶素．     

都市圈经济增长的空间相依性研究——基于中国三大都市圈的实证研究

There are a number of theoretical reasons why cities interact with each other. Such spatial interdependence has been largely ignored by the empirical literature with only a couple of recent papers accounting for such issues in their estimation. This paper takes spatial dependence panel data models in specifying and testing to analyze three metropolitan growth behaviors in China. We find that controlling for fixed-effects allows us to disentangle the effect of spatial dependence from that of spatial heterogeneity and that of omitted variables. The estimated relationships of traditional determinants of urbanization are robust to inclusion of terms to capture spatial interdependence, even though such interdependence is estimated to be significant. Additionally, the three metropolitan areas might be said to represent three distinct stages during the urbanization of China.      

农业产业化的路径转换:产业融合与产业集聚

我国农业产业化的进程正面临着重大的路径转换。在这一过程中,产业融合与产业集聚应运而生,通过产业融合形成新的产业形态,实现产业化农业;通过产业集聚加快农业产业化进程。     

Modeling asymmetric price transmission in the European food market

In this study, we employ a multivariate panel error correction model (PVECM) to investigate asymmetric price transmission among the farm, processor, and retail segments of the European food supply chain for the 2005–2016 period. The results indicate that, in both the long- and short-run, retail prices respond more strongly to processor price increases than decreases and the same occurs for processor prices due to farm price changes. Thus, the findings demonstrate the presence of positive asymmetric price transmission in the European food supply chain. Finally, the results of the present study indicate that the food price pass-through varies greatly across product category and across countries, and that the pass-through to producer prices is greater than that to consumer prices.