Trading away what kind of jobs? Globalization,trade and tasks in the US economy

Economists and other social scientists are calling for a reassessment of the impact of international trade on labor markets in developed and developing countries. Classical models of globalization and trade, based upon the international exchange of finished goods, fail to capture the fragmentation of much commodity production and the geographical separation of individual production tasks. This fragmentation, captured in the growing volume of intra-industry trade, prompts investigation of the effects of trade within, rather than between, sectors of the economy. In this paper we examine the relationship between international trade and the task structure of US employment. We link disaggregate US trade data from 1972 to 2006, the NBER manufacturing database, the Decennial Census, and occupational and task data from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles. Within-industry shifts in task characteristics are linked to import competition and technological change. Our results suggest that trade has played a major role in the growth in relative demand for nonroutine tasks, particularly those requiring high levels of interpersonal interaction.     

How much slack was there in the Chinese economy prior to its economic reform of 1978?

The existence of economic slack or inefficiency is a common phenomenon of economies that operate under mandatory central planning. It implies that the economy operates in the interior of its set of production possibilities and not on its frontier. It also implies that output can be increased without any increase in the inputs if the constraints which prevent the economy from operating on the frontier in the first place are removed. Thus, there is “surplus potential output” that is not directly observable and cannot be identified by conventional analysis of the relationship between inputs and output alone. The objective of this study is to attempt to identify and estimate the surplus potential output in the Chinese economy prior to its economic reform in 1978. This will help answer the question of how much of the Chinese economic growth since 1978 can be attributed to the reduction and elimination of the pre-existing economic slack. This question is important because the increase in output due to the reduction or elimination of the economic slack can only take effect once and cannot be continuing. It will also affect the attribution of the sources of Chinese economic growth. Our investigation suggests that a reasonable estimate of the magnitude of the surplus potential output of the Chinese economy on the eve of its reform is approximately 50% of the actual realized output in 1978.     

The role of small enterprises in the household and national economy in Kenya: A significant contribution or a last resort?

Based on a nationwide survey, this article addresses the contribution of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) to employment, national income, and household income in Kenya. One-third of all working persons are employed in MSEs and the sector contributes 13% to national income. Despite their large contribution as a whole, returns to individual MSEs vary tremendously. Among those MSEs that represent the sole source of income for the household, 72% make less than the absolute poverty line in urban areas and none of the MSEs in rural areas make above the absolute poverty line. Comparing hourly MSE returns to average earnings in the private sector, the majority make below the average earnings while a minority make significantly higher earnings.     

Is small beautiful? Understanding the contribution of small businesses in township tourism to economic development

The increased importance attached by policy-makers to the anticipated developmental effects of tourism in developing countries has been insufficiently examined by academic researchers, particularly in the context of the contribution of small firms in urban areas. This deficiency is addressed by providing a review of existing research followed by an analysis of interviews with 90 tourism business located within and outside the townships of Langa and Imizamo Yethu, Cape Town, South Africa. The findings reveal tensions between the different actors involved in township tourism. While the involvement of small, locally owned, businesses is beneficial, it is limited by conflicts of interest, lack of trust, limited social networks and little attachment to the township locality. The discussion highlights the complexity of tourism's role in economic development, which has significant implications for local policy-makers.     

Analysis on economic growth variances and convergences of county economy in China

In this paper, the economic structure of county development in China is reflected in seven terms： capital input, labor input, geographical position, industrial structure, and level of agricultural development, level of urbanization and public expenditure with the method of cluster analysis, which categorizes Chinese counties into three different area classifications according to the economic characteristics. The first classification of county economic variance covers not only the α-divergence, but also the club convergence apparently. The second classification covers the α-divergence, but not the club convergence. The third classification apparently covers the α -divergence, yet the club convergence as well.     

Is Swedish research in economic history internationally integrated?

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence of the international integration of Swedish economic historians. Contrary to the claims of a recent national evaluation of the discipline, the Swedish shares of international publications and conference presentations are robustly below available cross-country and cross-discipline benchmarks. Also considering levels of research inputs, the relative underperformance of the Swedish field is alarming. Four main explanations to this situation are forwarded: 1) being among the largest economic history communities in the world, Sweden has become self-sufficient and almost independent of the international arena; 2) the dominating research language is Swedish; 3) the dominating publication format is the monograph (in Swedish); and 4) Swedish economic historians are reluctant to use modern economic theories and statistical analysis to complement the traditionally dominant qualitative research methods.     

Economic spillover effects in the Bohai Rim Region of China: Is the economic growth of coastal counties beneficial for the whole area?

This study uses panel data on the Bohai Rim Region of China to test for spatial autocorrelation, and measures economic spatial spillover effects with the space Durbin econometric model. We discuss whether the economic development of coastal counties benefits the whole area. To do this, we focus on the “distance from the coast” factor, which is influenced by transportation time. The results indicate the presence of significant spatial autocorrelation in the Bohai Rim Region. Further, economic spatial spillover effects exist in this region. “Distance from the coast” exerts a significantly negative impact on the local GDP per capita but a significantly positive impact on the GDP per capita of other districts. This means that the economic development of coastal counties does not benefit the whole region. “Value of exports” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and no significant influence on other counties, while “foreign direct investment” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on other counties. “Number of employees in units” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on the other counties. The factors “primary industry's share in GDP” and “tertiary industry's share in GDP” influence the local economy positively, but the former exerts no significant influence on other counties and the latter exerts a negative influence on other counties. “Rate of fixed asset investment” influences the local economy negatively and has no significant effect on other counties. “Total retail sales of social consumer goods” has no significant influence on the local economy but a positive significant influence on the others. Finally, marine resource utilization and marine output can affect economic growth positively. On this basis, we propose policy suggestions for harmonious economic development in this region.     

Have cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty changed during the US–China trade war?

This study investigates the interconnection of policy uncertainties between the world’s two largest countries, the US and China, and sheds light on whether and how the US–China trade war affects each party. Given the deep-seated economic integration and trade linkage between the two countries, these characterizations are essential for understanding how policy shocks propagate spatially. Using fiscal, monetary, and trade policy data from January 2000 to December 2019, I provide ample evidence of bilateral, multilateral, and system-wide measures of policy uncertainty connectedness. Monetary policy is most likely to be the leader of policy uncertainty in China, while fiscal policy is more likely to be the leader in the US. The cross-category connectedness is not constant over time. Overall, the direction of spillover is from the US to China, although this changes in different periods owing to different environments. These findings are useful for policymakers to monitor the effectiveness of policies and to help investors avoid economic policy uncertainty shocks induced by return fluctuations.     

On the development of the crisis of the Russian economy in 2008–2009

This paper is devoted to analyzing the preconditions and course of the economic crisis in Russia in 2008 and early 2009. Special attention is paid to the accumulation in the previous period and the mechanisms of realization of the crisis potential of the Russian economy, as well the impact of the anticrisis actions of the financial authorities.     

Analysis of main subjects of the goods price formation in the market economy

The theoretical researchers, in the socialist market economy, are obliged to study the new features, the new rules, and the new important subjects of the product and service price formation in the contemporary economic development. Based on the theoretical analysis of the main subjects of the goods price formation, this paper reveals that the governmental policy is the main information resource of the main subjects of the goods price formation, the cost of goods is the main index of the main subjects of goods price formation and the consumer demand is the initial motivation of the main subjects of goods price formation.     

Is there a euro effect in the drivers of US FDI? New evidence using Bayesian model averaging techniques

In this paper the authors analyze the potential determinants of US outward FDI stock with a particular focus on the euro effect during the period 1985–2017. To this aim, they consider a large set of candidate variables suggested both by theory and previous empirical analysis. They select the covariates using Bayesian model averaging, a data-driven methodology. Their sample includes a total of 56 host countries, that represent around the 70% of US outward FDI stock. They study the role of the euro on American FDI both in Europe and the rest of the world. In Europe, they consider various country groups: the European Union (EU), the euro area (EA), as well as core and periphery within this last group. They conclude that many variables studied by previous FDI literature cannot be considered robust determinants. Moreover, US OFDI is explained by both horizontal and vertical motives. However, HFDI strategies predominate in EA core countries, whereas VFDI prevails in the periphery. As for the euro effect, the common currency seems to have played an important role encouraging US FDI, being a crucial element in the convergence of EA periphery to its core. In addition, the results indicate that the adoption of the euro has favoured VFDI to the detriment of HFDI.

     

Were capital flows the culprit in the Weimar economic crisis?

This paper examines the role of capital flows in the interwar German economy. We use a calibrated model of sudden stops as our analytical framework and derive four key findings. First, capital flows aggravated the boom–bust cycle of the Weimar economy. Second, these flows were strongly associated—during different periods—with reparations, conditions in the US capital market, and German domestic events. Third, capital flows before 1930 allowed Germany to pay reparations on credit and thus postponed the hour of reckoning when that debt had to be serviced using trade surpluses. Fourth, the German economic downturn in 1931 was due more to capital flows than to productivity shocks or reparations.     

Are Illegal Drugs Inferior Goods in the US?

Using data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, evidence of income inferiority in illegal drug consumption is presented. This is done by estimation of binary choice probit models with endogenous regressors. The endogeneity of income with regard to drug consumption is considered and the more efficient three-stage least squares procedures have been implemented. In general, the results indicate that accounting for endogeneity improves results on income inferiority with regard to drug consumption. An implication of this study is that some form of income distribution policies towards the poor might be more effective in controlling substance abuse. It also points out the regressive nature of the government’s substance abuse program.

Is China Relinquishing Manufacturing Competitiveness to Mexico in US Markets?

The present paper expands on the understanding of the competition between China and Mexico in US markets. Using the OECD International Trade by Commodity Statistics covering the period 2002–2012, we undertake both relative‐market‐share analysis and constant‐market‐share analysis. Through comparison of market share changes at both macro and micro levels, we find that on the one hand China's total negative impact on Mexican manufactured exports has been greatly reduced since 2007; on the other hand, China is increasingly aligned with Mexico in terms of its competitive position over the US market, consolidating its competitiveness in high and medium‐to‐high technology products and gaining market share in the US market, mainly at the expense of the most advanced economies. This changing pattern suggests the intensification of competition between Mexico and China, but also a potential for cooperation, with the enhancement of bilateral intra‐industry trade as a result of different technology choices and specialization paths.     

Can Changing Economic Factors Explain the Rise in Obesity?

A growing literature examines the effects of economic variables on obesity, typically focusing on only one or a few factors at a time. We build a more comprehensive economic model of body weight, combining the 1990–2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System with 27 state‐level variables related to general economic conditions, labor supply, and the monetary or time costs of calorie intake, physical activity, and cigarette smoking. Controlling for demographic characteristics and state and year fixed effects, changes in these economic variables collectively explain 37% of the rise in body mass index (BMI), 43% of the rise in obesity, and 59% of the rise in Class II/III obesity. Quantile regressions also point to large effects among the heaviest individuals, with half the rise in the 90th percentile of BMI explained by economic factors. Variables related to calorie intake—particularly restaurant and supercenter/warehouse club densities—are the primary drivers of the results.     

Is education the panacea for economic deprivation of Muslims?: Evidence from wage earners in India, 1987–2005

Few researchers have examined the nature and determinants of earnings differentials among religious groups, and none has been undertaken in the context of conflict-prone multi-religious societies like the one in India. We address this lacuna in the literature by examining the differences in the average log earnings of Hindu and Muslim wage earners in India, during the 1987–2005 period. Our results indicate that education differences between Hindu and Muslim wage earners, especially differences in the proportion of wage earners with tertiary education, are largely responsible for the differences in the average log earnings of the two religious groups across the years. By contrast, differences in the returns to education do not explain the aforementioned difference in average log earnings. In conclusion, we discuss some policy implications.     

Improving the quality of investment processes in Moscow’s economy

The paper proposes ways of using data on actually executed investments in fixed assets in the work of state auditors in order to solve two practical problems: estimating the volumes of tax revenues from the property of organizations and concluding on the degree of reliability of feasibility studies on the city’s participation in the authorized capital of economic entities. An original methodology, based on considering regularities in the process of reproduction in fixed assets, is proposed for estimating increases in tax receipts.     

Is the price elasticity of demand for coal in China increasing?

China's dependence on coal is a major contributor to local and global environmental problems. In this paper we estimate the price elasticity of demand for coal in China using a panel of province-level data for 1998–2012. We find that provincial coal demand has become increasingly price elastic. As of 2012 we estimate that this elasticity was in the range − 0.3 to − 0.7 in point estimate terms when responses over two years are considered. The results imply that China's coal market is becoming more suited to price-based approaches to reducing emissions. The elimination of coal consumption subsidies could reduce national coal use and related emissions by around 2%.     

Is the People's Bank of China consistent in words and deeds?

The People's Bank of China (PBC) now frequently uses communication as a policy tool. Whether its words are consistent with its deeds is important for the public to understand the PBC's complex behavior. In this paper, we employ a supervised learning model to construct monetary policy (MP) and economic outlook (EC) communication indices based on the outlook section of quarterly China Monetary Policy Reports (MPRs). We find that the PBC not only adjusts its interventions according to the corresponding economic situation, but also takes into account the information released in the previous outlook section, which indicates its consistency in words and deeds. Using a time-varying parameter model, we further find that the PBC's consistency of words and deeds has made progress over time. The PBC tends to be more consistent in words and deeds under higher uncertainty, and the improvement of such consistency can significantly decrease disagreement about inflation expectations. An additional analysis shows that the full text of MPRs can help predict future monetary policies on a longer time horizon.