Spatial economic development in South Africa: an overview and evaluation of the platinum spatial development initiative

The Platinum Spatial Development Initiative (Platinum SDI), located in the North West province of South Africa, is examined in this article. The article commences with a historical synopsis of industrial policy and regional industrial development policy in South Africa. Thereafter the trade and industrial policies of the North West Provincial Government are discussed in the contexts of its economic development strategies ‘North West 2001’ from 1997, and the ‘North West Economic Development and Industrialisation Strategy’ from 2002. Various arguments for and against the viability of the Platinum SDI are put forward.     

Prospects of trade liberalization between the developed and the developing countries

This paper analyzes the theoretical and policy aspects of various possible approaches — multilateral, preferential and others — toward new initiatives for liberalizing trade relations between the developed and the developing countries. The increasing differentiation between the Newly Industrializing Countries (NICs) and the Less Developed Countries (LDCs) suggests that a multidimensional framework, allowing flexibility in dealing with different subsets within the developing countries would be more relevant. The paper analyzes the probable outcomes and constraints of the various trade-liberalizing options with regard to their effects on trade flows, welfare and terms of trade.     

The long-run determinants of North-South terms of trade and some recent empirical evidence

This paper reviews some recent evidence of the long-run decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities versus manufactures in the context of North-South trade. This evidence is evaluated in the light of competing explanations of the sources of the observed long-run trends in the context of a model of North-South trade which includes a general resource, labor and capital in the North and specific factors in a dual economy model of the South. Changes in factor supply, sectoral and factoral bias in technical change, biased demand conditions, changes in the pattern of protection, and institutional elements, all play a role in determining the evolution of commodity and factor prices. The Lewis hypothesis of sectoral bias in the pattern of technical change towards temperate agriculture in the North and against tropical agriculture in the South is then reexamined in the light of the recent empirical evidence on terms of trade movements and some sketchy evidence presented on the patterns of bias in technical change in the North and the South. The evidence is not consistent with an absolute technical change bias towards temperate agriculture in the North. Rather, the rate of technical change in temperate agriculture is now comparable to that experienced in manufactures so that Engel curve effects now assert the major downward pressure on the long-run terms of trade between temperate agriculture commodities and manufactures, overriding the effects of diminishing returns to natural resources as Northern population expands. The empirical evidence onbiased technical change in the South is much more sketchy and the evidence on various components of North-South terms of trade is more varied.     

Innovations for reaching the green sustainable development goals –where will they come from?

Reaching the sustainable development goals needs innovations. This paper addresses the dynamics of green energy and resource efficiency innovations, and looks at the positioning of countries from the North and emerging economies. We use indicators for both general innovation capabilities and specific green technology capabilities. Data on general innovation capabilities reveal that the traditional OECD countries, by and large, still possess advantages compared to Newly Industrializing Countries (NICs). Literature and Patent indicators reveal that the innovation dynamics are particularly high for publications. Literature and exports indicators reveal that the South has been catching up substantially. With regard to patents, some countries of the South are catching up, but the North is still cleary leading. A detailed analysis of co-patenting and country-to-country trade data reveals a more differentiated picture: Leading countries from Europe such as Germany as still specializing on serving the markets of traditional OECD countries. Japan and Korea are very reluctant with regard to co-patenting, but specialize in exporting to China. South-South trade in green technologies is the fastest growing market segment. However, countries of the South are pursuing a differentiated strategy: Mexico is highly integrated into the US economy. Singapore and South Korea have been catching up and provide technologies especially for China. China itself is following a double strategy, with absorbing technology from the North in order to compete on markets of the North on the one hand, but increasingly specializing on becoming lead supplier for countries of the South on the other hand. The other technology providers from the South are mainly specializing in supplying other countries from the South. Thus, a segmentation of the market is likely, with green sustainability innovations in the South more likely originating in the South as well, and China being an important country to adapt knowledge from the North to the needs of the South.     

The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030

Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.     

Protection of trade for innovation: the roles of Northern and Southern Tariffs

Using a North–South trade model with innovation and imitation, we investigate the interaction of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and trade protection. We show that unlike a Southern tariff, a Northern tariff supplements IPR protection and is not necessarily a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. The globally optimal Northern tariff increases as IPR protection in the North or the South decreases. Global welfare may rise as Northern tariff increases, but necessarily declines as Southern tariff increases. This suggests that pushing for freer trade in the South is more urgent than in the North in innovation-intensive sectors where IPR protections are weak in both regions.     

From protectionism to free trade fever? Recent reforms in developing countries

During the 1980s, increasing numbers of developing countries unilaterally liberalized their trade regimes. This paper presents an overview of this dramatic shift from protectionism toward freer trade. South Asia, Latin America, and East Asia have implemented extensive reforms, yet each region has shown a distinct difference in approach and in the degree of liberalization actually achieved. Latin America stands out as moving sharply toward the level of openness of the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs). Only in Africa is there little progress toward freer trade.     

Impact of International Trade with Asian Newly Industrialized Countries on Wages in the European Union

This paper deals with the effect of international trade with newly industrialized countries (NICs) on wage inequality in the European Union (EU). We apply a two-stage mandated wage-estimation procedure to assess the respective impact of trade and technology on the relative wages of low-skilled workers. We find weak evidence of a positive impact on the wages of high-skilled workers with regards to trade with high-wage South-East Asian NICs but no evidence for other groups of NICs. We also find evidence of technological change, induced by trade with high-wage South-East Asian NICs. However, this indirect effect of international trade seems to have reduced wage inequality in the EU.     

Mobile entrepreneurship: Informal sector cross-border trade and street trade in South Africa

This article presents the results of a study on the participation of non-South Africans in the handicraft/curio sector of street trade in South Africa in informal sector cross-border trade. The findings provide an introduction to the largely unexplored phenomenon of informal sector cross-border trade between South Africa and neighbouring states and challenge some of the common myths about non-South African street traders which pervade public discourses around migration. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is presently involved in prolonged and contentious negotiations to establish a free trade area for the region based on the SADC protocol on trade and development. At the same time, against a backdrop of anti-immigrant rhetoric, the South African government is developing a new migration policy. The article argues that informal cross-border entrepreneurs should not be disadvantaged by the renegotiation of regional trade agreements and the reformulation of South Africa's new migration policy.     

The pressure towards protectionism: Is it systematic? A legacy of the recession? The result of policy to promote recovery?

In light of the concern being expressed in many national and international fora about the pressures towards protectionism, this paper explores the reasons for and the possible consequences of this new protectionist trend. The analysis is restricted to macroeconomic issues and policy situations. In answer to the question, ‘Can the current recovery be turned into durable economic growth, more evenly distributed among countries, across productive sectors, and throughout the population?’, the author replies in the affirmative on two conditions: (i) if macroeconomic and structural adjustments are pursued with unmitigated determination where needed; and (ii) if trade, the vital link among our economies, is allowed to revive worldwide. The core of the paper discusses four major unresolved policy issues that have important implications for world trade: (1) internal and external imbalances in the US recovery; (2) trade and underperformance in Europe; (3) the question of Japan and the Pacific NICs; and (4) external debt and adjustment in LDCs.     

R&D subsidy,intellectual property rights protection,and North–South trade: How good is the TRIPS agreement?

This paper investigates the competition in technology and production between a firm in the North (developed country) and a firm in the South (developing country), and how such competition may be affected by the North’s subsidy on technology improvement and the South’s intellectual property rights (IPR) protection level. It is argued that allowing the North to choose the policy first could bring Pareto improvement. This paper also shows that requiring only the South to tighten its IPR protection (as required by the TRIPS agreement) without putting similar pressure on the North to provide more R&D hurts the South. A more rewarding outcome exists if both the IPR protection level and the technology subsidy rate are chosen optimally. We point out that maximizing world welfare does not consequently hurt the South, or require a tightening of IPR protection in the South.     

Geography,policy, or productivity? Regional trade in five South American countries, 1910–50

Regional trade in South America since independence has long been much smaller than would be expected if geography were the only constraint on trade. Several potential explanations exist, including low technological and demand complementarities; low productivity; and high natural and policy barriers to trade. Focusing on the latter explanations, policy makers have long advocated a South American/Southern Cone Free Trade Area—proposed as early as 1889. Would reductions in trade costs have been sufficient to raise trade significantly, or was trade low for other reasons? We study bilateral trade between 1910 and 1950, when large external shocks altered global supply and demand. These shocks help us show that intra‐regional trade could have been boosted by reductions in trade costs. Trade among Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, and Peru could have benefited from more benign trade policies or better infrastructure. Regional trade in textiles, which took off from the 1930s, supports our argument that trade improved when trade costs fell.     

Entitlements,destitution, and emigration in the 1930s Singapore great depression

This article uses an entitlements approach to analyse the divergent impacts of the 1930s great depression on the diverse population groups of Singapore and its Malay Peninsula hinterland. Contrary to a revisionist argument in the literature that the depression had comparatively little effect on South‐east Asia, Singapore was considerably affected. This arose more from the externality of migration of unemployed hinterland workers to the city than from a shift in the terms of trade against Singapore producers. Only the ‘safety valve' of mass emigration, promoted by colonial policy, enabled Singapore to escape the depression with a sharp, if relatively brief, drop in welfare and serious distress for its inhabitants.     

Understanding China's move into Africa: an empirical analysis

An important new issue on the international scene is the upsurge in market and non-market South–South relations. The aim of this paper is to understand the dynamics that lie behind the recent Chinese move into Africa by empirically exploring the determinants of Sino-African relationships. In order to have a comprehensive picture, the analysis takes into consideration the main channels of commercial and political interactions: outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), trade and aid (international economic cooperation). The empirical analysis utilises a panel data set, from 1998 to 2005, for 43 African countries. The econometric estimates for three simultaneous equations are based on an instrumental variables method. Results show that the Chinese move into Africa is driven by strategic interaction among the three channels (FDI, trade and economic cooperation) as well as by pull factors, i.e. the characteristics of the receiving countries in terms of natural resource endowments and their market potential.     

日本关于区域经济集团化政策的艰难调整

20世纪80年代末至90年代初，尽管北美自由贸易区和欧洲统一大市场相继形成，北美和西欧的经济联合也取得了实质性的进展，但日本关于经济集团化的政策取向却主要表现为坚持非集团化和批判集团化。然而，伴随着世界性双边自由贸易的迅速发展，及以自由贸易协定为基本内容的国际经济合作组织的日渐增多，为了充分谋求自由贸易的实惠，日本以日-新双边自由贸易谈判为契机，已经从经济集团化政策的坚定批判者转变为谨慎实践者，但是，在国内外政治、经济环境的影响下，这种政策的调整程度还很有限，日前，日本关于经济集团化的政策仍处于不断探索和艰难调整之中。     

Most-favoured-nation treaty in service of trade? Case: early trade policy relations between Finland and Japan and their impact on the sales networks of the Finnish forest industry

This article scrutinises the significance of the most-favoured-nation (MFN) treaty in promoting the development of commercial activity and its results in transnational trade. As cardinal agents of trade policy, governments act as ‘umpires’ in formulating and guarding the rules of international trade, while the ‘players’ are private corporations which conduct commercial operations in the playing field of international trade. Within the framework of Finno-Japanese trade relations, the players established and developed their trade networks (corporate interconnections) regardless of the umpires and their official rules, meaning the commercial treaties. Through a close examination of the early trade policy relations between Finland and Japan along with the formation and development of the Finnish forest industry’s sales networks into the Japanese market in the early twentieth century, this study demonstrates that there was no explicit causal connection between MFN treaties and the evolution of the Finnish forest industry’s export efforts – and their results.     

南北贸易与内生增长——南方既模仿又创新

本文模型是对GH模型(Grossman and Helpman,1991)的一个拓广,不仅包括GH的情形(北方创新、南方模仿),还包括北方创新、南方既模仿又创新的情形。在后一种情形下我们发现:(1)参与国际贸易的南北双方能享受更高的增长率;(2)北方规模扩大会提高增长率、降低模仿率以及模仿企业数与北方企业数的比率;南方规模扩大会提高增长率、模仿率、南方相对工资水平,以及模仿企业数与北方企业数的比率;(3)南、北方政府资助创新会提高增长率、模仿率,但南方政府资助创新会提高南方相对工资、降低模仿企业数与北方企业数的比率,而北方自主创新的影响不确定;南方政府资助模仿的政策除提高南方相对工资外,对稳态的增长率、模仿率以及模仿企业数与北方企业数的比率都不产生任何影响。     

Openness,Regional Trade Agreements and Growth: Evidence from Asia*

This paper assesses the relationship between regional trade agreements, trade integration and economic growth in 21 South and South‐East Asian countries over the period from 1980 to 2004. We aim to answer the following questions. First, how does the trade policy of a given country (and countries within the same region) affect a nation's domestic growth? Second, should developing economies in South and South‐East Asia engage in regional trade agreements (RTA) or move towards broad liberalization? Our results show that openness of either a single country or of its neighbors does not affect a nation's growth and that the impacts of RTA are unclear (if not detrimental to growth in some cases, once endogeneity is accounted for). Panel Granger‐causality tests running from openness to growth yield mixed results and some conclusions depend on the particular subsample under scrutiny.     

中国加入WTO以来的美国对华贸易政策

中美贸易摩擦并未因中国加入WTO而得到缓解,相反却向更深层、更宏观、更关键的层面发展。这表明美国对华贸易政策的制定和实施有其自身的逻辑和规律,并不受具体事件或外在机制的影响。美国贸易政治的实质是政府、国会和利益集团三方之间的博弈和平衡,而本文就中国加入WTO承诺履行、知识产权、反补贴、特保措施以及人民币汇率等美国对华贸易政策中的重大议题展开分析,重点剖析美国政府、国会和利益集团在各个议题上的不同立场,探索美国对华贸易政策选择的政治和经济根源,并进而预测美国对华贸易政策的前景。     

中国贸易条件变动的宏观经济效应——理论解析与动态计量检验

通过构建包含贸易条件的DSGE模型和SV-TVP-FAVAR模型,依次对中国贸易条件变动的宏观经济效应展开理论解析和动态计量检验。研究发现:(1)贸易条件变动对宏观经济的冲击很大程度上依赖于贸易弹性的高低,当贸易弹性较高时,贸易条件恶化尽管有助于促进就业和经济增长,但对消费和投资将产生显著的"挤出效应";(2)货币政策目标对贸易条件变动的动态传导机制具有重要影响,以价格稳定为目标的货币政策能够有效缓解贸易条件恶化对消费和投资的"挤出效应";(3)中国贸易条件恶化对宏观经济主要变量的影响在短期内和中长期内存在明显不同,并且在不同时期也表现出显著的阶段性差异,相比于两次金融危机时期,经济新常态下贸易条件恶化的产出效应和价格效应相对较小,并且对消费和投资产生的"挤出效应"也有所下降。