Devaluation and liberalization in the presence of tariff and quota restrictions: An equilibrium model

The purpose of this paper is to examine and compare the effects of devaluation and trade liberalization policies on a monetary economy which uses quotas in contrast to an economy which uses tariffs. This is done in a general equilibrium framework. The paper also investigates the reasons for coupling liberalization policies with a devaluation.     

全球服务贸易自由化态势研判——以多哈回合服务贸易谈判为视角

服务贸易是多哈回合谈判的一个重要领域。由于多哈回合进展极不顺利,新一轮服务贸易谈判进程也十分曲折。从总体上看,这轮谈判已取得了一定的阶段性成果,同时在许多方面也存在着明显的缺失。从多哈回合服务贸易谈判存在的问题、发展的进程及趋向来看,今后一个时期全球服务贸易自由化的基本态势为:领域更趋广泛,任务更为艰巨,成果仍将有限,影响更加深远。     

过境交付服务贸易的发展及其自由化问题初探

过境交付是四种服务贸易模式中与其他模式最显著不同的一种。这种最类似于货物贸易的国际服务贸易的成长,打破了服务总是需要人或物为载体,服务本身不能被存储和独立运输的传统观念,提高了服务的可贸易性,对推动全球服务贸易的发展具有极为重要的意义。全球电子商务和服务外包的蓬勃发展,原本不占服务贸易重要地位的过境交付贸易迎来了发展新机遇。在电子商务被引入多哈回合的谈判后,与电子商务密切相关的过境交付自由化问题也引起全球关注。     

Trade liberalization in asian newly industrialized countries

Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan are often perceived as having achieved similar trade patterns; nevertheless, their trade policies and patterns differ in fundamental respects. In this study, three models are considered and different aspects of the trade liberalization policies of these three countries are highlighted. The model of South Korea underscores the significance of product market concentration in restraining real wage growth and contributing to income inequality. The model of Singapore highlights the role of foreign investment in producing manufactured goods for export and in raising real wages. The factor proportions model of a labor-abundant economy adequately describes the Taiwanese liberalization. The model's predictions of rising real wages and no monopoly profits are consistent with Taiwan's declining income inequality.     

关于贸易自由化对中国环境影响的分析

贸易自由化成为当前全球经济发展中的一大趋势,关于贸易与环境之间的争论因此变得越来越激烈。基于国际竞争力的可持续性这一视角,本文首先对贸易自由化可能产生的环境影响进行理论上的分析,指出环境规制是其中的一个关键因素,然后,选取中国制造业作为研究对象,论证在中国所制定和实施的环境政策下,贸易自由化对中国环境造成的实际影响,最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

多哈回合中的农业问题对中国的影响

多哈回合的谈判结果对于多边贸易体制的稳定、经济全球化的进程、贸易自由化给各成员国带来的福利增进而言,具有极其重要的意义。世贸组织承诺,多哈回合要给发展中国家带来真正的好处。作为世界上最大的发展中国家,中国所受到的影响更是引人注目。     

WTO框架下国际粮食援助与公平贸易——后多哈时代展望

粮食援助和贸易本是两个相对独立的问题,粮食援助最初主要满足人道主义目的。随着粮食援助形式的发展和国际贸易自由化程度加深,粮食援助商业色彩越来越浓,逐渐与公平贸易挂钩。粮食援助是多哈回合谈判重要议题之一,欧盟、美国和受援国间矛盾分歧严重,谈判陷入僵局未取得实质进展,粮食援助与贸易将面临后多哈时期一系列新的挑战。     

Trade liberalization and the allocation of labor between households and markets in a poor country

We consider the relationship between relative price changes and the allocation of labor between households and the formal wage labor market in the context of Vietnam's liberalization of its rice trade in the 1990s. Many individuals in poor economies work within their own household rather than in formal labor markets. We find that larger rice price increases in a community are associated with declines in hours adults devote to work within the household and increases in time spent in the wage labor market. We also observe increased specialization in household economic activities accompanying these shifts in hours towards wage work. Our results are consistent with the idea that a growth in the extent of the market shifts production and labor from households to markets during development, thereby inducing gains from specialization. Thus, the reallocation of labor between households and markets in response to a trade liberalization might be an important component in understanding the link between trade and growth in very poor economies, currently the focus of the Doha WTO negotiation round.     

Markets for risk and openness to trade: how are they related?

If protectionist trade policies aim to insure domestic industries against swings in world market prices, the development of financial markets could lead to trade liberalization. Likewise, trade liberalization could lead to the development of financial markets that help agents diversify the added risks. In this paper, we empirically address the hypothesis that there is a positive interdependence between financial development and liberal trade policies. We find a positive and economically significant relationship between the two, with causation running in both directions. The results are, however, somewhat dependent on the measure of trade policy being used.     

Market Reforms,Technological Capabilities and the Performance of Small Enterprises in China

This paper shows that the domestic and foreign trade liberalization of the Chinese economy since the late 1970s has led to much dynamism among small and medium firms. Such firms have grown at a rapid pace and have increased their share of value added in the Chinese economy. At the same time, they have recorded gains in total factor productivity. However, after two decades of decontrol, the potential for further growth among small and medium industries is limited unless further liberalization is undertaken and government policies pertaining to the allocation of credit, levy of taxes, and grants of research and other subsidies are applied in a more even-handed fashion.     

STOLPER–SAMUELSON REVISITED: TRADE AND DISTRIBUTION WITH OLIGOPOLISTIC PROFITS

This paper investigates the distributional impact of international trade when goods markets are oligopolistic and firms partially pass‐through changes in tariffs into prices and factor costs for differentiated products. Trade liberalization raises mark‐ups and profit shares in the export industry and lowers them in the import‐competing industry, while Stolper–Samuelson effects on real prices of primary factors are attenuated or possibly reversed. An extended model shows how ‘offshoring’ (trade in intermediate goods) can potentially increase mark‐ups for oligopolistic producers of final goods. The analysis illuminates why business interests generally support trade liberalization policies today, regardless of their countries' factor abundance.     

Beyond Border Barriers: The Liberalisation of Services Trade in Tunisia and Egypt

Tunisia and Egypt have both recently undertaken significant steps toward trade reform. They have committed to a partnership agreement with the European Union. Both countries have also joined the WTO and are participating in Doha Round discussions on the liberalisation of non‐tariff barriers on both goods and services trade. These developments provide an interesting context within which to investigate not only the changes in welfare associated with reforms affecting the trade in goods, but also the impacts of services liberalisation. Using open‐economy computable general equilibrium models for both Tunisia and Egypt, this paper explores the reasons why structural differences in these two economies imply different opportunities and challenges with trade reform and services liberalisation. The gains from eliminating barriers at the border for goods trade are significantly greater for Tunisia than Egypt. Both countries, however, gain substantially from liberalisation of foreign direct investment in services. Furthermore, economic growth is more evenly distributed across sectors than with liberalisation of trade in goods alone. In addition to reporting on the impact of alternative policies on income, output, employment and trade, sector‐level effects are also considered.     

Education bias of trade liberalization and wage inequality in developing countries

The aim of this article is to examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries, and whether a higher human capital stock moderates this effect. We look at the skilled–unskilled wage differential. When better educated societies open up their economies, increased trade is likely to induce less inequality on impact because the supply of skills better matches demand. But greater international exposure also brings about technological diffusion, further raising skilled labour demand. This may raise wage inequality, in contrast to the initial egalitarian level effect of human capital. We attempt to measure these two opposing forces. We also employ a broad set of indicators to measure trade liberalization policies as well as general openness, which is an outcome, and not a policy variable. We further examine what type of education most reduces inequality. Our findings suggest that countries with a higher level of initial human capital do well on the inequality front, but human capital which accrues through the trade liberalization channel has inegalitarian effects. Our results also have implications for the speed at which trade policies are liberalized, the implication being that better educated nations should liberalize faster.     

The unfinished agenda: Indian agriculture under the structural reforms

Employing a dynamic nine-sector, seven-income classes computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the Indian economy (1985–90). this paper analyses the medium-run effects of (agricultural) trade liberalization. Its focus is on the effects of trade reform on farmers' incentives, because it is often presumed that the lack of adequate incentives constitutes the major constraint on private agricultural investment and the use of modem inputs. The simulation results suggest that, given empirically plausible price response elasticities, the improvement in farmers' incentives consequent upon trade liberalization is unlikely to increase agricultural productivity and real incomes in a broad-based and sustained manner. It is with reference to these results that major technological, social and structural, and organizational barriers to private agricultural investment are discussed and an important role is identified for government intervention in fostering agricultural development.     

How and how far to liberalize a developing economy with informal sector and factor market distortions

Whether a liberalizing developing economy should implement the entire WTO-prescribed package, and to what extent this is expedient, are two important questions, especially because the available empirical evidence suggests that developing countries have been facing substantial adjustment costs in their endeavour to implement trade and investment reform. The present paper makes a humble effort to provide answers to the above questions in terms of a three-sector general equilibrium model with informal sectors. Welfare implications of three liberalization policies: inflow of foreign capital, tariff reduction and labour market reform, have first been analysed in a full-employment framework. Later, the paper has been extended into a Harris?–?Todaro framework with an urban informal sector and capital market distortion. We have shown that welfare consequences of a tariff reform and/or a policy of deregulating the labour market crucially depend on the presence and magnitude of foreign capital in the economy. It is argued here that unless a proper choice among different prescribed policies, compatible with the internal institutional, technological and trade-related characteristics, is made, drastic implementation of reform measures may produce counterproductive results for the welfare of the relevant country.     

关贸总协定1994第20条中环保例外条款的适用及困惑

贸易与环境问题是一个涉及国际社会多层面、多领域的复杂而重大的问题,已成为世贸组织新一轮多哈回合谈判的重要议题。世贸组织环保例外条款承认了各国国内环境政策的合法性,但运用不当易演变成贸易保护手段,从而阻碍国际贸易的发展。本文通过对关贸总协定1994第20条(b)、(g)两项立法主旨、适用条件的阐释,揭示了这些条款在实际运用中存在的问题,目的是促使世贸组织环保例外条款公正有效地实施,并期望对我国外贸政策的选择有所裨益。     

A gravity model to account for vertical linkages between markets with an application to the cattle/beef sector

A gravity model is developed to explain bilateral trade flows in primary and processed commodities within the same agri-food supply chain. It accounts for vertical production linkages, trade and domestic policies, and supply rigidities at the farm level. Our application focuses on cattle/beef trade flows between 42 countries. The estimated parameters of the model are used to simulate trade flows. We found large differences in the impacts of the full and partial liberalization scenarios. A parametric bootstrap procedure is used to generate confidence intervals around predicted trade liberalization outcomes.     

Antitrust and Liberalization in developing countries

A number of developing countries around the world have recently liberalized once highly protected regimes through privatization programs and by reducing impediments to market trade. Many of these countries have adopted an antitrust policy as an integral component of their market reforms. Recent assessments of trade liberalization programs show disappointing results. Such outcomes contradict long-held beliefs that free trade is sufficient to generate competitive outcomes in small economies. Antitrust advocates view these underwhelming achievements as further justification for extensive antitrust enforcement. We argue instead that the failure of liberalization suggests not the correctness but the inappropriateness of the enactment of antitrust policies. The continuance of market power after liberalization is due primarily to lobbying activities by producer interest groups to establish nontariff barriers rather than to collusive practices among producers. Interest groups find cartelization and rent seeking as substitutes in raising prices above competitive levels. Accordingly, the establishment of antitrust serves to improve the relative attractiveness of seeking nontariff barriers. Antitrust policies are ineffective in challenging the emergence of nontariff barriers and thus may have the unintended consequence of promoting anticompetitive activities.     

贸易自由化视角下新新贸易理论的再审视

新新贸易理论是以企业异质性、不完全竞争和规模经济为特征的国际贸易理论。文章首先从三个方面梳理以往贸易理论对现实的解释力,之后将贸易自由化对新新贸易理论影响的相关文献进行整理发现:通过跨企业的再分配效应,贸易自由化在提高总生产率方面发挥了重要作用,在新新贸易理论的发展中占有重要位置,最后提出新新贸易理论未来可能的发展方向。     

Trade and technology adoption

This paper endogenizes firms' choices of production technology in what would be a standard Melitz model otherwise. The responses of firms' productivity to trade liberalization are heterogenous: exporters, on average, improve their level of technology adoption, whereas nonexporters downgrade their level of technology adoption. The degree to which firms adjust production technology depends on domestic market size, export destination market size, trade impediments, and export status. The conflicting empirical results of the impact of trade liberalization on exporters' productivity are rationalized by showing that changes in different trade costs (variable vs. fixed costs) affect firms' productivity differently. We calibrate the model's parameters to match firms' characteristics in the global economy. The results indicate that endogenous productivity increases the gains from trade liberalization.