The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and export diversification

This paper explores the effect of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on export diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa. The existing empirical studies suggest that AGOA has had a positive effect on the overall volume of trade between Sub-Saharan Africa and the United States. However, the economic development literature emphasizes the importance of export diversification for developing countries; therefore, it is important to understand the effects of AGOA on the extensive margin of trade (i.e. the number of distinct products a country exports). Our empirical results suggest that AGOA does contribute to export diversification, specifically through its apparel provision. Countries that are eligible for the AGOA apparel provision export not only more apparel products, but also more non-apparel products to the USA. Thus, AGOA contributes to export diversification at the extensive margin of trade with the USA.     

Export diversification,composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis

We investigate the export-growth relationship at disaggregate levels – disaggregation both at the country level and at the level of exports – focusing on the diversification and the composition of exports of countries. In a sample of 65 countries for the period 1965–2005 the dynamic panel estimation reveals that both diversification and composition of exports are important determinants of economic growth after controlling for the impacts of other variables like lagged income, investment, and infrastructure. There is a critical level of export concentration beyond which increasing export specialization leads to higher growth. Below this critical level, diversification of exports matters for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Growth of high technology exports also contributes tothe output growth; the relationship becomes stronger for countries that have share of manufacturing exports in their total exports greater than the world average. These results are robust even when the dataset isclassified in four sub-panels based on the export-economic growth relationship.     

Export product range and economic growth in the EU countries

We analyse the number of different HS8 products in the EU countries’ exports in 1995–2015. We review what share, or coverage, of the total possible number of these products the countries have exported each year. The EU15 countries have typically witnessed a slow rise in this coverage rate, that is, a widening of their extensive margins. The exception is Finland where the share has declined considerably. On the other hand, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and the new member countries have seen a dramatic increase in their export product coverage. We analyse how the development in the coverage rate and, as a comparison, the diversification of exports as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman index are associated with GDP per capita growth. We find that changes in the former measure are positively associated with economic growth after we have controlled for GDP per capita catching‐up as well as investment and export activity. We also find that smaller EU economies do not specialise more than large ones in their exports as could perhaps be assumed.     

Distance from core competences and new export survival: Evidence from multi‐product exporters

We study the determinants of the survival of new export products of multi‐product firms. We use micro‐level data from Chile to estimate linear fixed‐effects and non‐linear survival models to show that a measure of “distance” between a firm's new export and its previous export basket is a negative and significant determinant of the survival of the new export, especially during its first year. Our interpretation of this finding is that exports further away from firms’ core competences have lower chances of survival in exports since it is more difficult for firms to achieve competitiveness in them. Our results suggest that country‐level diversification, at least through existing firms, should be gradual.     

Trade Policy and Export Diversification: What Should Colombia Expect from the FTA with the United States?

Sectoral concentration of exports has been a longstanding matter of concern for policymakers in developing countries. According to economic theory and recent empirical evidence, improved market access through trade agreements is likely to favor export diversification. In this article, it is assessed whether this has been the case for Colombian exports to the United States and whether an FTA with the United States would help Colombia diversify their exports. We find that lower tariffs have indeed favored exports of new products from Colombia. Predictions suggest that the FTA is likely to induce further diversification, but only up to a certain point.     

The Extensive and Intensive Margins of Exports: The Role of Innovation

An important prediction of trade theories is that innovation can improve a country’s export performance. Using data on patents granted by the US as a proxy for innovation and data on manufacturing exports from 105 countries over the period 1975–2001, I investigate the extent to which innovation increases the number of products traded (the extensive margin) and the export value of each product (the intensive margin). The empirical results show that (i) innovation has a positive and significant effect on both the extensive and intensive margins. The intensive margin contributes 70 per cent of the effect, and the extensive margin accounts for 30 per cent. (ii) The effect of innovation on exports is stronger for low‐income countries than for high‐income countries. (iii) More innovative countries export greater quantities and charge higher prices, suggesting that innovation increases the product quality of exports.     

Export Performance and Access to Intermediate Inputs: The Case of Rules of Origin Liberalisation

Internationally fragmented production processes have highlighted the need of efficient sourcing from foreign suppliers. This paper aims to investigate how exports of final goods are affected by better access to foreign intermediate inputs. In particular, the paper empirically tests whether expanding the set of available intermediate input suppliers through preferential rules of origin liberalisation affects exports of final goods. We exploit the introduction of the southern Mediterranean countries into the Pan‐Euro‐Med zone of diagonal cumulation which meant that foreign intermediate inputs could be used from more countries than before without jeopardising the preferential access to the EU. Using a fixed effects specification that controls for detailed levels of unobserved heterogeneity and multilateral resistance, we examine the effect of the new diagonal cumulation possibilities on southern Mediterranean exports to EU‐15. We find a positive effect on both export intensity, the value of exports, and export diversification, the number of exported products. Being part of the Pan‐Euro‐Med zone of diagonal cumulation is associated with a 20 per cent increase in export intensity and a 5 per cent increase in export diversification.     

Trade barriers and trade flows with product heterogeneity: An application to US motion picture exports

We extend Melitz (2003) to allow for both global and bilateral fixed export costs. If global (bilateral) export costs dominate, the average sales ratio (import sales per product variety/domestic sales per variety), decreases (increases) in variable (fixed) trade barriers, due to adjustment along the intensive (extensive) margin of trade. Using novel data on bilateral US movie exports we find that (i) variation in box-office revenues per movie is much larger than in the number of movies exported, and (ii) the average sales ratio decreases in geographic and linguistic distance. These findings suggest that global fixed export costs dominate.     

贸易便利化对中国企业出口二元边际的影响

本文采用中国海关数据库和OECD编制的TFIs指数,从出口企业-目的地层面分析了出口目的地贸易便利化对中国企业出口二元边际的影响。研究显示:目的地贸易便利化的提升对中国企业出口额增长有显著的促进作用,但企业的出口增长是通过缩小出口产品种类数(扩展边际)、扩大产品平均出口额(集约边际)实现的。拓展分析表明:随着目的地贸易便利化水平的提升,小企业和加工贸易企业会更多地缩小出口产品种类;低收入经济体贸易便利化提升对中国企业出口扩展边际的消极影响更大。据此,企业应专业化、规模化地生产有比较优势的产品,不断提升自身生产率,积极应对贸易便利化带来的机遇和挑战。     

我国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口态势浅析

"一带一路"倡议的实施不仅改善了外部发展环境,更是成为新常态下外贸提质增效的战略支撑。笔者基于我国对"一带一路"沿线国家的出口数据分析,揭示三大态势:一是初级产品与工业制成品出口双增长,但制成品出口中沿线国家所占份额趋于稳定,而初级产品出口中沿线国家占比不断上升;二是工业制成品中劳动密集型产品出口下滑而高新技术产品出口增势明显;三是对东盟出口中间品与进口最终消费品保持较快增长。进一步分析表明,上述三大态势缘自"一带一路"背景下我国对外直接投资的发展、经济增长方式的转型以及东亚分工体系的调整。     

The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: Some new insights on the openness measurement issue

Empirical results on the links between trade openness and economic growth often suggest that, in the long run, more outward‐oriented countries register better economic growth. However, a similar level of trade openness can hide different types of trade structures. The aim of this paper was to enrich the way of measuring trade openness taking into account two different dimensions of countries’ integration in world trade: export quality and export variety. Based on the estimation of an endogenous growth model on a panel of 169 countries between 1988 and 2014 using a generalised method of moments estimator, our results confirm that countries exporting higher quality products and new varieties grow more rapidly. More importantly, we find a non‐linear pattern between the export ratio and the quality of the export basket, suggesting that openness to trade may impact growth negatively for countries which are specialised in low‐quality products. A non‐linear relationship between export variety, the export ratio and growth is also found, suggesting that countries increasing their exports will grow more rapidly after reaching a certain degree of the extensive margin of exports.     

Export diversification,margins and economic growth at industrial level: Evidence from Thailand

This paper examines the relationship between export diversification, export margins and economic growth at the industry level using Thailand as a case study during 2002–16. Our results show that the effects of export diversification and margins on economic growth vary across industries. Export diversification helps boost growth only in some sectors, including electronics, automotive and chemicals, plastic and rubber, while in the processed food, and textiles and apparel industries, specialisation matters more in promoting growth. In almost all industries, a non-linear relationship between diversification and economic growth is not revealed, except in textiles and apparel. The diversification is crucial in enhancing the impact of exports on growth only in the processed food and textiles and apparel industries. Expansion of intensive margins plays an important role in boosting growth in key industries within Thailand. The role of extensive margins, both in terms of new products and new market destinations, in promoting economic growth is limited. For extensive margins (new products), it is found to be significant in boosting economic growth only in processed food and textiles and apparel, while in the case of extensive margins (new market destinations), its significance in boosting growth is revealed only in the electronics sector.     

Does aid for trade diversify the export structure of recipient countries?

The importance of aid for trade as a tool for facilitating trade, economic growth and social development has received attention since the concept was introduced in 2005. While one of the main targets of aid for trade is export diversification, reflecting the fact that the exports of many developing countries are concentrated in a small range of items, there have not been many efforts to measure the effect of aid for trade on export structure. This study, therefore, attempts to trace the relationship between aid for trade and 133 aid recipients' export structure between 1996 and 2013. Using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index to measure the degree of export concentration, the findings suggest that total aid for trade has reduced the concentration level in the short run. In the long run, on the other hand, aid for trade has had no significant effect on export structure of recipient countries. Only aid for building productive capacity, which is one of the three categories of aid for trade, contributes to lower concentration. Yet, this change is not caused by an increase in export diversity but by the redistribution of shares of existing products of a similar sophistication level.     

Are US Exports Different from China’s Exports? Evidence from Japan’s Imports

Are US exports different from China’s exports? If so, how? This article attempts to answer this question, using product‐level manufacturing import data from Japan. To make the comparison clear, this article also examines exports from the EU. The results indicate that more than 85 per cent and 83 per cent of products exported by the US and the EU, respectively, to Japan are also commonly exported from China. Both the US and the EU export products are priced higher than China’s export products, regardless of industries. This result suggests that quality differences matter in explaining the high overlap of China’s export products with US and EU export products. In some industries, however, the price differences of US and EU exports relative to China’s exports are relatively small. This result implies that either Chinese firms are upgrading the quality of their products, or US and EU firms are improving their efficiencies such that they can compete with Chinese firms.     

中国农产品对美国出口的比较优势探讨

近年来,中国农产品对美国出口呈稳步增长趋势,贸易结构呈现多样化。本文运用比较优势分析方法重点对中国农产品出口美国的比较优势状况进行了测算。结果表明,中国农产品出口美国总体上处于比较劣势,但部分农产品,特别是劳动密集型农产品仍具有较高的比较优势。进一步提高中国农产品的比较优势,并将比较优势转化为竞争优势是扩大中国农产品出口美国市场的主要途径。     

双向知识产权保护对中国出口三元边际的影响

理论分析了双向知识产权保护对出口国出口三元边际的影响,并选取2005—2015年中国出口到世界65个国家的HS-6位贸易数据,构建引力模型进行了实证验证。主要结论是,国内加强知识产权保护可以提升中国的出口种类和数量,贸易伙伴国加强知识产权保护可以提升中国的出口种类;没有证据表明,国内或国外知识产权保护水平的提升会影响中国的出口价格;当国内知识产权保护更强时,双向知识产权保护对中国出口种类的促进作用都有所增强,反之则二者作用都不显著;分国家类型的研究表明,双向知识产权保护的同时加强更有益于中国向发展中国家出口产品种类的扩张,但对发达国家则不显著。     

Export diversification across countries and products: Do Eastern European (EE) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries diversify enough?

Despite the importance of geographical and product diversification of exports, this question has not got enough attention in the literature. We look at country and product diversification of exports from Eastern Europe (EE) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), two groups of countries that both substantially increased trade openness since the beginning of transition, but took different paths in terms of product and geographical composition of exports, and compare with the export diversification predicted by the gravity equation estimated on a large sample of countries in 2001–2007. The results demonstrate substantial deviations of the actual diversification levels from the levels predicted by the gravity model for the CIS countries, while the EE countries' levels of diversification are much closer to the levels predicted by the model and consistent with the data. All CIS countries lag behind the region leaders – Czech Republic and Poland – in terms of the degree of export diversification. In particular, the CIS countries extensively engaged in the export of raw materials have the most concentrated exports in terms of their product composition. In terms of geographical diversification, Belarus has the least diversified exports among all transition countries.     

2000—2009年黑龙江省主要食品和药品行业出口概况分析

分析2000—2009年黑龙江省主要食品和药品行业的概况。食品行业前五年出口额年均小幅下降,2000—2008年增幅平稳,2009年出口额下降。出口市场相对集中稳定,初级产品出口比重大,但工业制成品的年均增幅不断上升,出口产品结构稳定。医药行业以出口为主,出口市场较分散且主要向发展中国家出口。     

Firm strategies in expanding and diversifying exports

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the patterns and dynamics of exports by Irish firms over the past two decades from a highly detailed data set of export records at the firm‐product‐destination level. We identify patterns of export concentration and specialisation and how these evolved over time. Firms’ strategies for export growth along product and destination markets mixes are then examined and the contributions of intensive (average sales) and extensive (number of products or markets) margins to overall exports and to export growth are calculated. We find that most exporting firms are quite small, selling a few products to a small number of destinations while export values are dominated by a relatively small group of highly globalised large firms selling many products to many destinations. Continuing exporters frequently introduce new products, drop products and enter and exit markets. Export growth in the case of Irish‐owned exporters appears largely driven by the extensive margin of product and destination changes. However, the opposite pattern holds for foreign‐owned firms with growth mainly coming from the intensive margin.     

US Economic Sanctions Against China: Who Gets Hurt?

The United States maintains a broad spectrum of economic sanctions against China ranging from export controls to prohibitions on certain imports. Our study finds that, although from a macroeconomic perspective, US sanctions have had no significant adverse effect on China's overall economic growth and trade between the two countries, they do have a negative impact on producers and consumers in both countries. US economic sanctions have hindered technology transfer to China and US investment in China. US restrictions on imports from China have caused deadweight losses for the US due to higher domestic production costs for import substitutes and a reduction in consumption. US export controls have hindered US exports to China and contributed to large US trade deficits with China. The export controls have also caused losses of high‐paid jobs in the United States and benefited competitors from other countries. In addition, US economic sanctions against China have had significant third‐party effects. China's diversification of imports to sources other than the United States may have a long‐term effect on US exports to China even after US economic sanctions against China are lifted.