On the Role of Imports in Enhancing Manufacturing Exports

Making use of a large panel data set on Italian manufacturing firms, we provide evidence on the effect of imports on the firm's export performance. We distinguish imports of intermediates according to their origin, and we find that inputs sourced from low labour cost countries promote the firm's export activity. Imports from high‐income countries do not significantly contribute to the export orientation of firms, especially when both persistence in export and the possible endogeneity of the import measures are accounted for via system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation of a linear probability model. Our evidence suggests that the impact of imports on the firms’ export activity works through the cost‐saving channel rather than the technology channel.     

On the choice of in-house production versus outsourcing by multinationals

Abstract

The global economy is becoming more integrated with the increase in international fragmentation. This paper examines two forms of global production networks in a general equilibrium framework by building on the ‘knowledge-capital model.’ The focus is the relationship between country characteristics and the multinational firm's choice either to allocate the labor-intensive processing stage in-house to its foreign affiliates or to outsource the activity to outside contractors at arm's-length. Chinese data on the export processing trade are used to test the theory. The findings show that multinational firms with their headquarters in highly skilled-labor-abundant countries of intermediate size have a preference for outsourcing. By contrast, skilled-labor-abundant countries of small size are homes to multinational firms with subsidiary production in the host country where unskilled labor is cheap.     

Resolving the paradox of social standards and export competitiveness

Over the last decade there has been increasing international pressure on countries to raise ‘social standards’ (i.e. production standards based on environmental and labor conditions). Currently, the World Trade Organization does not allow countries to impose minimum standards on imports based on environmental or labor standards because it is assumed to undermine competition. There is no consensus in the empirical literature, however, to support this claim. In fact, the evidence suggests that while stronger environmental standards hurt competitiveness, stronger labor standards do the opposite. This paper offers one possible explanation for this paradox. In a simple model of incomplete information, externally imposed standards may either increase or decrease the competitiveness of infant firms from developing countries depending on the degree of complementarity between the standard and the production of high-quality goods.     

Foreign sourcing and exporting

The aim of this paper was analysing the role of sourcing intermediate inputs internationally on export decisions and distinguishing whether intermediates are sourced from firms belonging to the same business group or from independent suppliers. To analyse firms' export decisions, we use a specification that also accounts for sunk costs and accumulated experience in export markets (i.e., export market learning). We consider that importing intermediates might have direct and indirect effects (operating through enhanced productivity) on the export participation decision. The direct effects on exporting are isolated once we control for productivity and the effects of belonging to an international group. We use a manufacturing panel data set drawn from the Spanish Survey on Business Strategies (ESEE) for the period 2006–14. Both productivity and inward or outward FDI increase the probability of exporting. Moreover, our results uncover the existence of sunk costs and export market learning, and also the relevant role played by intermediate imports in firms' export choices. Their effects act both through the (indirect) channel of enhancing firms' productivity and through a direct effect related to product upgrading, more competitive selling prices or learning from the firm's import experience.     

Developing countries in competition for foreign investment

This study analyzes the competition for foreign direct investment (FDI) among countries at different stages of development. It is assumed that domestic companies in a more-developed country use more capital in production and that wages in a less-developed country are lower. Countries can compete for FDI by increasing the supply of public inputs in the economy, in addition to (or instead of) offering subsidies or tax reliefs to foreign investors. The results reveal that if governments of competing countries are not allowed to discriminate between domestic and foreign firms, there may be situations in which a less-developed economy will attract FDI depending on the labor cost differential and the responsiveness of foreign investor's and domestic companies' output to changes in the supply of public inputs. If tax discrimination between domestic and foreign firms is permitted, both countries will optimally raise the supply of public inputs, but the more-developed country will always win the foreign investment despite higher labor costs. Thus, governments of less-developed countries may have an incentive to work on an international agreement to disallow tax discrimination.     

Firms' imports and quality upgrading: Evidence from Chinese firms

Using transaction-level data for the Chinese manufacturing sector, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the causal effect that firms' imports have on quality upgrading. We implement an empirical strategy that delivers quality estimates at the firm-product-destination level. Exploiting this measure and accounting for the endogeneity of imported inputs, this paper shows that sourcing from abroad boosts export quality. Moreover, the analysis indicates that quality improvements are particularly strong when firms purchase inputs from high-income countries. Taken together, these results provide direct evidence that quality upgrading is an important mechanism through which imports favour firms' export performance.     

Competitive pressure,innovation and trade protection: Evidence from US patent data

Recent theoretical models have suggested that the relationship between competition and innovation may best be characterised as an inverted‐U shape: firms in industries with low levels of competition are more likely to innovate in the wake of increased competition as they attempt to escape competition, while those in highly competitive industries will decrease innovation in the wake of increased competition as the profit incentive to innovate dissipates. Results from other studies have found positive as well as negative relationships between innovation and competition. In a parallel literature, trade economists have produced conflicting results regarding the impact of trade liberalisation on innovation. One stream of research has shown that increased access to imported intermediate goods increases productivity, suggesting a positive relationship between imports and innovation. Others have hypothesised that firms may use the technology embodied in intermediate inputs as a substitute for domestic innovation. In this paper, we merge these divergent literatures and investigate whether innovation, as measured by the production of patents by US manufacturers, has been impacted by market competition and tariff reductions. Our empirical findings indicate that insulation from imports in the form of higher tariffs on final goods was associated with innovation until the late 1980s, while falling tariffs on intermediate goods appear to have facilitated innovation during the 1990s. We also find evidence of the inverted U‐shaped relationship between market competition and innovation.     

The effects of bilateral attitudes on imports

Research based on the gravity model has shown that non-economic factors affect international trade, and recent studies have shown that people's perception affects economic exchange. In this study, we explore the effects of attitudes on bilateral trade. Using survey data from the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Projects for 68 countries from 2002 to 2015, we find that a more favourable attitude of a country towards another country will increase the former country's imports from the latter. The result is robust to an endogeneity check, to different measures of attitudes and to different estimation methods. However, heterogeneity is observed across different types of goods and countries. The result holds for trade in intermediate and consumer goods, but the effects are not statistically significant for capital goods. The effects are statistically significant for bilateral trade between different country groups, except for high-income countries' imports from non-high-income countries.     

Firm R&D,Processing Trade and Input Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from Chinese Firms

This paper examines the impact of input trade liberalisation on firm R&D activity by taking China's accession to the WTO as a quasi‐natural experiment. Different from ordinary imports, processing imports in China enjoy zero tariffs and are not affected by input trade liberalisation due to the WTO accession. The paper uses disaggregated firm‐level production data and transaction‐level trade data to perform difference‐in‐difference analysis by taking processing import firms as a control group. An intensive empirical search shows that after China's accession to the WTO, input trade liberalisation fostered firm R&D significantly. The findings are robust to different measures and various empirical specifications.     

Offshore production and skill upgrading by Japanese manufacturing firms

We investigate the influence of offshore production by Japanese multinationals on domestic skill intensity. Identifying relationships based on within variation in a panel of 1070 firms, we find that additional foreign affiliate employment in low-income countries raises skill intensity. The positive effect of FDI on domestic skill intensity, however, diminishes as investment shifts towards high-income countries. Increases in affiliate employment in low-income countries also raise a firm’s reliance on finished goods purchases, suggesting that overseas employment affects domestic skill intensity because imports of final goods from foreign affiliates displace domestic production.     

Friends like this: The impact of the US–China trade war on global value chains

This paper considers the indirect impact the recent tariff increases between the United States and China can have on third countries through links in global supply chains. We combine data from input–output relationships, imports and tariffs, to calculate the impact of the tariff increases by both the United States and China on cumulative tariffs paid by third countries. We show that the tariff hikes increase cumulative tariffs for other countries and thus hurt trade partners further downstream in global supply chains. We also show that this is particularly important for tariff increases on Chinese imports in the United States. These are likely to be used as intermediates in production in the United States, which are then re-exported to third countries. The most heavily hit third countries are the closest trade partners, namely the EU, Canada and Mexico. We estimate that the tariffs impose an additional burden of around 500 million to 1 billion US dollars on these countries. China's tariffs on US imports have less of an effect.     

The Impact of Trade Openness on Regional Inequality: The Cases of India and Brazil

Regional inequalities are large in India and Brazil and represent a development challenge. This article aims to determine whether regional inequalities are linked to a country's trade openness. An annual indicator of regional inequalities is constructed for India for the period 1980–2004 and for Brazil from 1985–2004. Results from time series regressions show that Brazil's trade openness contributes to a reduction in regional inequalities. The opposite result is found for India. India's trade openness is an important factor aggravating income inequality among Indian states. In both countries, inflows of foreign direct investment are found to increase regional inequalities.     

Technology gap,imported capital goods and productivity of manufacturing plants in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper uses firm-level data from Ghana, Tanzania and Kenya to examine the effect of capital goods imports on domestic firms' productivity, and the role firms' technology gap plays in aiding the transmission of knowledge embodied in capital goods to domestic firms. The results show that increasing imports of capital goods and closing technology gaps have positive effects on productivity. Furthermore, domestic firms with technology standards farther from international best practices benefit more from capital goods imports. The results also imply that trade liberalization policy aimed at eliminating tariffs on capital goods will significantly improve the performance of technically incompetent firms in the African manufacturing sector.     

A comparison of FDI determinants in China and India

This study explores foreign direct investment (FDI) determinants in China and India and fills the gap in the literature by providing a comprehensive empirical comparison analysis. Two panel data sets and two statistical models are employed to identify the determinants of FDI inflows from home countries worldwide to the two host countries by considering both home and host countries' characteristics. The empirical results show some interesting similarities and differences between the two countries. Market growth, imports, labor costs, and country political risk/policy liberalization are the determinants for both countries. However, exports, market size, and borrowing costs are important to China's FDI, while geographical and cultural distance factors are important to India's FDI. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Has Import Disciplined Swedish Manufacturing Firms in the 1990s?

This paper analyses how increased integration and the ongoing enlargement of the EUs internal market affected the performance of Swedish manufacturing firms. The pro-competitive effect of international trade, in term of intensified import competition on domestic firms market power, has been investigated extensively at the industry-level. In contrast to previous studies, this analysis is based on detailed firm-level information and import data divided into both an EU member group and a group of recently approved EU member candidates. It focuses on how imports from these groups, together with imports from other non-European trading partners, impact on firm-level profitability, while taking firm-specific efficiency effects into account. The findings are that imports from the new EU-candidates, Japan and Asian newly industrialized countries seem to have a disciplinary effect on firm-level profits, whereas imports from EU-member countries only appear to have an impact on firms with large market shares and in highly concentrated industries.     

局部地区冲突冲击了中国石油进口吗

文章利用1992~2018年中国从80个国家石油进口的非平衡面板数据,实证考察出口国发生局部地区冲突对中国石油进口的影响,并对其异质性特征和可能的影响机制予以识别。研究表明,出口国局部地区冲突会给中国石油进口带来显著的负向冲击,该影响主要是局部地区冲突引起出口国石油产量下降所致。局部地区冲突不会通过国际油价和中国石油对外直接投资影响中国石油进口。石油资源禀赋和"一带一路"倡议能够在一定程度上对冲局部冲突对中国石油进口的负向影响。局部地区冲突对中国石油进口的冲击具有明显的阶段性特征,并且随着中国石油进口依存度的攀升逐渐增强。在当前国际油市深度调整的现实背景下,该研究为深刻认识一系列国际重大突发事件对中国石油进口的影响、保障中国石油进口安全提供了科学借鉴。     

Learning-by-importing in emerging innovation systems: evidence from Ecuador

Using data from the population of Ecuadorian importers, we examine the extent to which the characteristics of their imports relate to their labor productivity. Results indicate that the technological intensity of imports does not explain differences in labor productivity, although the region of origin of imports explains differences in the manufacturing sector, as imported technologies from advanced regions are associated with superior labor productivity. Nevertheless, as technology intensive imports are not associated with superior performance, we argue that importers from developing countries may use foreign technology inexpertly due to the lack of absorptive capacity and the emerging nature of their national innovation system.     

The effect of investor origin on firm performance: Domestic and foreign direct investment in the United States

This paper evaluates the causal relationship between the source of origin of FDI and the performance of the target firm. The empirical analysis uses new data on a comprehensive sample of public U.S. firms that received FDI between 1979 and 2006. To account for the possibility that performance differences arise due to the selection of superior target firm rather than the change in ownership, I use propensity score matching to create similar comparison groups of target firms prior to acquisitions. The analysis reveals three major findings. First, acquiring firms from industrialized countries lead to labor productivity increases of 13% in the target firm three years after the acquisition compared to targets acquired by domestic firms. Firms that received developing country firm acquisitions, on the other hand, exhibit lower labor productivity gains four years after acquisition, compared to targets acquired by domestic firms. Second, targets receiving FDI by firms from industrial and developing countries also experience increases in profits, compared with firms receiving acquisition by domestic firms from the United States. Third, compared with domestic acquisitions, foreign industrial firm acquisition FDI tends to increase their targets' employment and sales, whereas targets acquired by firms located in developing countries experience a decrease in both revenues and total number of employees. These findings suggest that target firms are subject to significantly different restructuring processes depending on the origin of the acquiring firm.     

FDI and the skill premium in a North–South global economy

The effect of FDI from North to South countries on the skill premium of both groups of countries is examined. The lower wage of unskilled labor in the South induces the Northern firms to shift the unskilled labor intensive production processes in the South. FDI occurs in an unskilled labor intensive activity, but in a skill-intensive sector. It is shown that this leads to an increase in the skill premium of skilled labor in both North and South.     

Regionalism Within Multilateralism: The WTO Trade Policy Review of Canada

The World Trade Organisation published a Trade Policy Review of Canada in 2003. In this paper, we discuss the WTO Review and augment the discussion by presenting original data and reviewing the empirical literature. The WTO concludes that Canada's trade regime is open and transparent but maintains barriers in a few important sectors. We subject this claim to empirical scrutiny, comparing Canada's actual imports to a multilateral benchmark based on the gravity equation. We show that Canada imports about what should be expected given the size of its economy and its location. In a second benchmarking exercise, we show that Canada's anti‐dumping initiations are in proportion to its imports and that Canada's exports are targeted less by other countries’ anti‐dumping investigations than what might be expected based on Canadian export levels. Like many other countries, Canada has pursued trade liberalisation through the World Trade Organisation while simultaneously signing multiple regional trade agreements. Our summary of the recent literature indicates that Canada's regional trade agreements have generated more trade creation than trade diversion. Canada has also spurred imports from the least developed countries by unilaterally eliminating tariffs and quota barriers on 48 of the world's poorest countries in January 2003. We also discuss Canadian progress in opening its agriculture and clothing industries. Overall, we conclude that Canada appears committed to advancing globalisation through multilateral trade liberalisation supplemented by unilateral and bilateral initiatives.