Fertility decline in Indonesia: a review of recent evidence

The author presents an annotated list of major data sources on Indonesian fertility. The general consensus that there has been a decline in Indonesian fertility is noted, and the various estimates concerning fertility levels prior to that decline are discussed. The relationship between fertility and the family planning program is examined     

The sources of long-term economic growth in Indonesia, 1880-2008

This paper presents new time series estimates of GDP, capital stock and education-adjusted employment, and uses a growth accounting approach to analyze GDP growth during 1880-2008. The growth of capital stock, employment and educational attainment explained almost all of GDP growth. During key growth periods 1900-29 and 1975-97, Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth was on balance negative. TFP growth was substantial during some sub-periods, particularly 1933-41, 1951-61, 1967-74 and 2000-08. Each followed a major economic downturn that slowed capital stock growth and required a more efficient use of productive resources, supported by changes in economic policy that enhanced productivity and efficiency.     

Indonesia Update 2010 Employment,living standards and poverty in contemporary Indonesia

The Indonesia Update Conference, now in its 28th year, was held at the Australian National University on 24–25 September. Convened by Chris Manning (Indonesia Project, ANU) and Sudarno Sumarto (SMERU Research Institute, Jakarta), the conference attracted around 300 participants from academia, government, NGOs and the business community, including many from Indonesia. Apart from the traditional political and economic updates, both of which are published in this issue of BIES, six broad topics were covered: employment, migration and microenterprises; education and health; health care for the poor; trends in poverty and social protection; government interventions; and the politics of poverty.     

Trade Reform in Indonesia, 1987–95

This paper quantifies Indonesian trade liberalisation between 1987 and 1995 as measured by changes in real effective rates of protection (RERP), i e effective rates of protection corrected for trade policy-induced changes in wages. The RERP for manufacturing, including oil refining, fell from 27% in 1987 to 11% in 1995, for manufacturing, excluding oil refining, the fall was from 59% to 16%, and for agriculture from 9% to 4% The standard deviation of RERPs for all tradeable sectors fell from 42 percentage points to 26; and for manufacturing, excluding oil refining, from 102 percentage points to 39.     

Forestry,Forest Fires,and Climate Change in Indonesia

In recent months, strong global growth, rebounding commodity prices, and relatively accommodative financial conditions have benefited the Indonesian economy. The first quarter of 2017 in Indonesia saw resilient GDP growth, moderate inflation, stable exchange rates, an increase in the growth of non-oil exports, and an investment upgrade from ratings agency Standard & Poor's. Investment growth, however, did not pick up enough to drive overall growth to a higher rate. The poor quality of banking-sector assets and the gaps in tax revenue—despite the fulfilment of the government's tax-amnesty program—are two of the most immediate economic concerns. President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), who is well into the second half of his term, is under pressure to deliver on his development platform, which includes making progress in sustainable development and climate change mitigation. The effective management of forests is key to this platform. There has been longstanding tension over Indonesia's forests between the protection of environmental values, including carbon storage, and the production of valuable commodities, including timber, palm oil, and pulpwood, which generate revenue and employment. We survey recent developments in four storylines related to forestry and climate change: first, Indonesia's commitment to reducing emissions to 29%–41% below projected business-as-usual levels by 2030, as well as the international climate agreements and finance that can help achieve this commitment; second, land-use rights and regulations, including a moratorium on clearing, draining, or setting fires on peatland; third, measures to prevent catastrophic forest fires like those during the 2015 El Niño, including the establishment of the Peatland Restoration Agency; and, fourth, the actions of non-state actors, especially large agribusinesses, in managing forests and peatland. We conclude by discussing differences in the approaches of Jokowi's administration and those of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's administration and by questioning whether Indonesia's budgeted resources, actions, and results to date are commensurate with its climate commitments.     

Decentralisation in Indonesia

This paper attempts to assess the extent of decentralisation efforts and their impact on various dimensions of the development process. We find relatively little ‘real’ decentralisation (devolution): local governments have little tax autonomy and central priorities tightly constrain most funding from the centre. Indeed, increased revenue flows serve as a disincentive to modest local tax efforts, reduce the relative importance of locally controlled funds and thus retard real decentralisation. Central transfers for health, education and infrastructure have nonetheless significantly improved social and economic indicators. Greater local control over funds is found to lead to more expenditure on the social sectors (and within them on priority areas), and to increase spending on small scale locally oriented infrastructure. More decentralisation thus offers the potential for increased allocations to social and economic priorities, enhancing efficiency and equity within regions; but the promotion of national standards and equity across regions requires central government action.     

The determinants of internal migration in West Germany, 1967

Summary and Conclusion We initially set ourselves the task of explaining the geographical movement of labor in West Germany in 1967. In so doing we have investigated two alternative models; the standard model based on net advantages and the job opportunity model. Our results clearly support the thesis that job opportunities playa substantial role in the geographical distribution of labor in West Germany. Of the two measures of job opportunity the vacancy rate seems to be preferable, at least, in labor scarce economics. The standard distance variable performs quite well, perhaps unexpectedly well in light of the relatively small distances involved. This has led us to speculate that distance may be closely related to the difficulty with whichm potential movers acquire labor market information. Finally, wage differences seem not to explain the locational patterns of movers. However, the lack of variation in wages among the regions that we studied causes us to consider this result highly tentative and subject to further study.     

千岛之国[印度尼西亚]

印度尼西亚共和国(THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA),简称印尼,位于亚洲大陆与大洋洲之间,横跨赤道,北邻菲律宾,西接马来西亚和新加坡。首都雅加达。陆地面积1,904,443平方公里,海洋面积3,166,163平方公里,人口2.15亿,为世界第四人口大国。多数居民信仰伊斯兰教。印尼是世界上岛屿最多的国家,共有岛屿17506个,素有千岛之国之称。它也是世界上现存火山最多的国家,拥有400多座火山。巴厘岛是印尼三大旅游景区之一,以典型的海滨自然风光和独特的风土人情而闻名。     

The sources of unemployment in Canada, 1967-91: evidence from a panel of regions and demographic groups

We analyze the determinants of Canadian unemployment in a frameworkincorporating demand and supply-side variables: the interestrate, taxation, foreign activity, minimum wages, union density,demographic pressure, unemployment insurance, terms of trade.The model is estimated with 500 observations for five Canadianregions and four demographic groups, 1967-91. We provide a comprehensivepicture of the macroeconomic and structural causes of unemploymentwith data combining the advantages of macroeconomic time seriesand microeconomic cross sections. The long-term rise in Canadianunemployment since 1960 is attributed to higher real interestrates, the UI reform of 1972, and slightly adverse net demographicpressure.