Employment Creation and Manufactured Exports in Indonesia, 1980–90

One of the most significant effects of the trade and regulatory policy reforms introduced in Indonesia since the mid 1980s has been the growth of manufactured exports, particularly labour-intensive manufactures. The growth of these sectors' exports has in turn generated substantial employment benefits, both directly and through backward linkages. In this paper we estimate the employment effects of the rapid growth in manufactured exports between 1980 and 1990, and compare two subperiods, 1980–85 and 1985–90. In the latter period, employment created by exports of light industries increased dramatically in absolute terms, far exceeding employment created by primary exports.     

Poverty and Inequality in The Soeharto Era: An Assessment

This paper surveys the evidence on trends in poverty and inequality during the years of Soeharto's presidency. That Indonesia saw a decline in the incidence of poverty, and improvements in other welfare indicators such as infant mortality rates and literacy rates over these years, seems indisputable. Comparative studies show that by the latter part of the 1980s, the headcount measure of poverty in Indonesia was below that in the Philippines although above that in Malaysia and Thailand. But relative poverty has declined more slowly, and indeed increased in some urban areas between 1987 and 1996. The paper also examines evidence on the determinants of rural poverty in Indonesia in 1993, and suggests that rural development programs targeted to the specific needs of poor people in poor areas will be essential if rural poverty is to be further reduced in future years.     

Family Matters: Demographic Change and Social Spending in Indonesia

Economic growth of only 4.9% in Indonesia in the first quarter of 2016 cast doubt on the previous official target of 5.2%–5.6%. Given the lacklustre internal demand and dampening global outlook, whether the government can generate faster growth in the remaining months will depend on the extent to which its programs champion productive spending. The government’s response to stalling growth has focused on increasing infrastructure and social spending. In the face of budgetary constraints to financing such expenditures, initiatives to raise revenue and to improve targeting on social spending are taking place. On the revenue front, two initiatives are worth noting: the issuance of Law 11/2016 on Tax Amnesty and the amendment of Law 16/2009 on General Provisions and Tax Procedures. To improve the targeting of social spending, the National Team for the Acceleration of Poverty Reduction (TNP2 K) launched an updated Unified Database, which contains information on 24 million of Indonesia’s poorest households. Meanwhile, around 167 million Indonesians have registered for the National Health Insurance scheme. Yet any consolidation of social protection and insurance programs in Indonesia necessitates an understanding of long-run trends in population dynamics. In particular, understanding the trends and drivers of family change is pivotal to mapping key issues and challenges in President Joko Widodo’s continued push towards welfare reform. We outline key features of contemporary family change in Indonesia: a modest decline in average household size, an uncertain trend in age at first marriage, fertility rates that hover just above replacement level, an increasing tendency for women to ‘marry down’ in education, more interethnic marriages, and an upturn in divorce since around 2006. We note the implications of family change on future trends in population and the workforce, and their associated longer-term challenges for current social protection initiatives.     

Measuring Barriers to International Division of Labor in East Asia*

International fragmentation has developed dramatically in East Asia since the 1990s. The purpose of the present paper is to measure border barriers in transactions of intermediate goods in East Asian countries. We find that the barriers in each country have steadily declined since 1985. The barriers in China and Taiwan have declined remarkably since the 1980s, whereas those in Indonesia experienced a slight increase in the 1980s. These results are qualitatively unchanged even if we control the effect of agglomeration on intra‐national inputs.     

The growth of urban centres in Java since 1961

The rate of urban population growth from 1961 to 1980 in the larger cities of Java, Indonesia, is examined using data from the 1980 census. The author notes that these data disregard boundary changes, and he attempts to take these changes into account by presenting revised rates of growth for various major urban centers in Java. The differences among the growth trends of the national capital, the three provincial capitals, and the remaining urban centers are discussed.     

What has Happened to Wages in the New Order?

This paper reviews trends in real wages in Indonesia since the early 1970s. It finds that there has been wage growth in a range of agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. However, growth has been uneven across sectors and for different periods. After the oil boom, wage growth slowed during the second half of the 1980s, although it picked up again in the 1990s. The paper discusses the relationship between various episodes of economic growth and labour market developments which might have contributed to patterns of wage change in various sectors. It also examines the influence of price deflators on real wage change, and compares trends in real earnings with trends in wage rates.     

The Demography of Indonesia in Comparative Perspective

Having reduced its fertility rate over the past 40 years, Indonesia has reached a new demographic crossroad. Its fertility rate is now around 2.5 births per woman, which, if sustained, would add substantial numbers to Indonesia's population in the future. There are concerns within Indonesia that the present level of population growth is an obstacle to continued economic development and, accordingly, that fertility should be reduced to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman as soon as possible. Yet a comparative perspective indicates that countries such as Singapore, Japan, and Thailand are concerned about the effects that their very low rates of fertility are having on their labour forces and their rates of population ageing. This article suggests that with the right policy settings Indonesia can avoid this outcome yet continue to reduce its fertility. It discusses the implications of Indonesia's population growth and distribution for its economy, as well as the poor quality of demographic data.     

The Development of Inequality and Poverty in Indonesia, 1932–2008

We estimate inequality in Indonesia between 1932 and 2008. Inequality increased at the start of this period but declined sharply from the 1960s onwards. The increase was due to a shift from domestic to export agriculture over the period up to the Great Depression. During the 1930s, as the price of export crops declined, the income of rich farmers suffered a blow. Yet this was counterbalanced by an increasing gap between expenditures in the urban and rural sectors, causing an overall rise in inequality. As for the second half of the century, we find that the employment shift towards manufacturing and services—combined with an increase in labour productivity in agriculture—accounts for inequality’s decline, which was halted in the 1990s. These inequality trends affected poverty as well, but prior to the 1940s the negative impact of the rise in inequality was offset by an increase in per capita GDP. Between 1950 and 1980 a decline in inequality, combined with increased per capita GDP, rapidly raised a large portion of the population above the poverty line.     

Continuing demographic transitions in Asia

This article updates the literature survey on demographic trends and policies published in the May 1987 issue of this journal. It reports substantial adjustments in earlier population projections, suggesting slower decline in population growth rates for China and several other Asian countries. It gives an account of recent trends and policies in the Asian-Pacific region, especially China, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore.     

Gravity Models of Interregional Migration in Indonesia

This article explores the determinants of interregional migration in Indonesia. Employing basic and modified (extended) gravity models, and using data from the 2000 and 2010 Population Censuses and the 2005 Intercensal Population Survey, we test Long’s (1985) hypothesis that in the early stages of population redistribution, economic development is positively related to a concentration of the population. Using per-capita GDP as a proxy for income and as an indicator of economic development, we find that migration in Indonesia is indeed directed towards more developed regions. This finding supports the notion that regional disparities in development are an important factor in interregional migration in Indonesia. In line with classical gravity models, our findings show that distance is negatively related to the size of migration flows. However, unlike previous studies of interprovincial migration in Indonesia, we find that the effect of distance has weakened over time.     

Fertility Change in Asia and Africa

There have been profound changes in fertility rates in Asia and Africa in the past two to three decades. The availability of new data allows a closer examination of fertility trends and underlying causes than has hitherto been possible. This collection brings together evidence on fertility decline in India, China, and a number of African countries. The papers examine the role of different explanatory factors in lowering fertility, including female education, declines in child mortality, urbanization, and the spread of mass media and “modern” consumer culture. The relative importance of female education as an explanatory factor vis-à-vis other factors is examined, with specific reference to India. The papers also explore the impact of the decline in birth rates for ageing and social security reform as well as health policy.     

The changing age distribution in Indonesia and some consequences

"Beginning with a discussion of the sources and quality of Indonesian age data by sex, this paper examines the changes in the functional age groups of the population of Indonesia from 1971 to the year 2005, and the implications of these changes for education, labour force participation, dependency ratios and fertility. Data for the period 1971 to 1985 are based on actual enumerations, while those for the period 1990 to 2005 are based on projections. Although the provisional totals of the 1990 Census had been released before the publication of this paper, their breakdown by age was still not available. The functional age categories discussed in the paper include the pre-school years, the primary and intermediate school ages, the teenage years, the reproductive ages of women, the principal working ages and the post-work years. It concludes with a discussion of various policy and planning implications of these changes."     

我国大城市80后生育观的调查研究——基于杭州市的数据

调整人口政策,平衡人口结构对于现阶段全面做好人口工作具有十分重要的意义。文章首先简要的对生育观文献进行了述评,进而在此基础上运用问卷调查的方法分析了杭州市80后的生育观现象,主要表现为杭州市80后都有生儿育女的观念、孩子的数量为一至两个、女性偏好略大于男性、生育的动机主要为满足亲子感情及家庭完整等高层次的精神需要、晚婚晚育普遍等方面。最后上升到更宏观的角度,从整个国家的视角为我国经济发达的大城市的生育政策调整提出政策建议,主要有继续坚持实行计划生育基本国策不动摇;从人们的经济条件和生活质量方面影响人们的生育行为;鼓励大城市推行适度的"开放二胎"政策;完善并加大对计划生育家庭的扶助制度,以期能为政府相关部门建言献策。     

Fertility decline in Indonesia: a review of recent evidence

The author presents an annotated list of major data sources on Indonesian fertility. The general consensus that there has been a decline in Indonesian fertility is noted, and the various estimates concerning fertility levels prior to that decline are discussed. The relationship between fertility and the family planning program is examined     

Fertility decline and the heights of children in Britain, 1886–1938

In this paper we argue that the fertility decline that began around 1880 had substantial positive effects on the health of children, as the quality–quantity trade-off would suggest. We use microdata from a unique survey from 1930s Britain to analyse the relationship at the household level between the standardised heights of children and the number of children in the family. Our results suggest that heights are influenced positively by family income per capita and negatively by the number of children or the degree of crowding in the household. The evidence suggests that family size affected the health of children through its influence on both nutrition and disease. Applying our results to long-term trends, we find that rising household income and falling family size contributed significantly to improving child health between 1886 and 1938. Between 1906 and 1938 these variables account for 40% of the increase in heights, and much of this effect is due to falling family size. We conclude that the fertility decline is a neglected source of the rapid improvement in health in the first half of the twentieth century.     

The Role of Markets,Technology, and Policy in Generating Palm-Oil Demand in Indonesia

Indonesia produces more palm oil and consumes more palm oil per capita than any country in the world. This article examines the processes through which Indonesia has promoted palm-oil consumption and some of the consequences of that promotion. Partial equilibrium modelling shows that Indonesia's remarkable increase in palm-oil consumption since 1985 is not largely attributable to population and income growth. Instead, much of this consumption growth has resulted from substitution away from coconut oil, facilitated by government policies on technology, pricing, distribution, and trade. The switch from coconut oil to palm oil in Indonesia was associated with increased land conversions to agriculture and diminished smallholder competitiveness. Despite lower rates of cooking-oil substitution in the future, simulations suggest that Indonesia's total palm-oil consumption in 2035 will be at least double that of 2010.     

Long-term Evolution of Productivity in a Sample of Philippine Rice Farms: Implications for Sustainability and Future Research

We investigate long-term productivity trends in a representative intensive rice cropping system using periodic farm level survey data spanning more than 20 years of the Green Revolution in two rice bowls of the Philippines. Estimation of production functions with year dummy variables shows substantial declines in productivity from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s. Examination of secondary data shows, however, that the survey years were unrepresentative of long-term trends and were unduly influenced by exogenous yield shocks. Correction for these effects removes the productivity decline, but shows that productivity has stagnated. A renewed emphasis on increasing crop genetic yield potential may be necessary in order to improve productivity and restore the contribution of this important farming system to poverty alleviation.     

The Timing of the Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa

If demographic and health surveys have underlined declining fertility trends in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, little is known on the precise timing and the speed of the fertility transition in the continent. This study attempts to fill this gap, by using an innovative approach to the analysis of DHS data and other relevant surveys. The method utilizes fine tuning of fertility trends year by year, for urban and rural areas separately. The paper starts by a case study of the fertility transition in Kenya. The same method is later applied to more than 20 countries. Results indicate that in many countries, fertility started to decline in the late 1960s and 1970s in urban areas, and about 10 years later in rural areas, much earlier than usually thought. Placing a time frame at the onset of the fertility transition allows one to develop further analysis of the key determinants of the fertility transition. Emphasis is on the role of family planning programs, as well as on emerging independent individual behavior such as delayed marriage and induced abortions. Comparison is made with the situations of other developing countries, and with the possible role of mass media, in particular television.     

Gender Differences in Schooling in Indonesia

Despite almost universal primary education in Indonesia, and increasing female educational participation, gender differences remain in access to Indonesian education. This paper attempts to measure and explain these differences at primary and secondary level in Indonesia's provinces between 1980 and 1985. It examines the relationship between provincial school enrolment ratios for males and females and four factors: school availability, formal sector employment, ‘drop-out’ patterns and marriage patterns. School availability is found to be a strong predictor of enrolment levels, and stronger for females than for males. Relationships between enrolment patterns and the other three factors appear less clear cut.     

Ready to stop: socioeconomic status and the fertility transition in Stockholm, 1878–1926

The western fertility decline is arguably the most significant demographic change to have occurred in the past 200 years, yet its causes and processes are still shrouded in ambiguity due to a lack of individual‐level longitudinal data. A growing body of research has helped improve our understanding of the decline's causes by examining the development of socioeconomic differences in fertility using historical micro‐data, but these have largely only considered rural areas where fertility was generally slower to decline. This article contributes to the literature by utilizing individual‐level data from the Roteman Database for Stockholm, Sweden between 1878 and 1926 to examine the association of socioeconomic status and fertility and the adoption of stopping behaviour during the city's transition. Using piecewise constant hazard models and logistic regression, we find that a clear class pattern arises in which the elite were early practitioners of fertility control, followed by the working classes. As the transition unfolded, socioeconomic differences in stopping behaviour disappeared and overall fertility differentials were also minimized, both of them being consistent with patterns observed in rural populations. The implications of these findings for major explanations of the decline are discussed in the concluding section.