Belief in Mean Reversion and the Disposition Effect: An Experimental Test

The disposition effect refers to investors' tendency to disproportionately sell more winning than losing assets. The literature mostly offered indirect evidence regarding its cause. Using a lab experiment, the author directly evaluates the two competing behavioral mechanisms for this effect: belief in mean reversion and dual risk attitudes of prospect theory. The participants were endowed with some hypothetical assets, observed price charts, and made selling decisions. Sixty-one percent of them exhibited significant disposition effect. The author elicited the participants' risk attitude parameters and beliefs about price movements, and found that beliefs, especially those in the loss domain, but not the dual risk attitudes, significantly contributed to the between-subject variation of the disposition effect. The results from a goodness-of-fit test also favor the belief mechanism.     

Individual Differences in the Disposition Effect

The authors model the role of personality traits in explaining the disposition effect building on realization utility theory and Big 5 model and moving from an aggregate level to interindividual differences. The experimental analysis, combining NEO Revised Personality Inventory measures with individual financial data from a trading simulation run by 230 individuals in China and Italy, shows that the disposition effect is driven by 2 distinct psychological processes, one related to holding losers and the other to selling winners. These 2 behavioral mechanisms are uncorrelated and influenced by different personality traits. Controlling for different demographic variables, the authors show (a) a greater sensitivity of the rewarding system that motivates “extroverts” to quickly sell the stock at gain to receive a burst of utility; (b) a tendency for “conscientious” subjects to suppress impulsivity, patiently waiting for higher cumulative returns; and (c) the importance of “openness to experience” to better value information to achieve higher outcomes.     

中国股票市场个体投资者"处置效应"的实证研究

利用中国个体投资者交易帐户的交易数据,本文对中国股票市场个体投资者"处置效应"进行了实证分析,并考察了中国股票市场是否存在"十二月效应"对"处置效应"的影响.依据情绪影响投资者决策的心理学结论,本文进一步分析了在不同的市场态势下,个体投资者"处置效应"的特征.本文研究表明,中国个体投资者存在显著的"处置效应",并在不同市场态势下表现出不同的特征,十二月份存在"反处置效应"现象.     

Disposition Effect and Diminishing Sensitivity: An Analysis Based on a Simulated Experimental Stock Market

The authors experimentally investigate the existence of the disposition effect and its relationship with diminishing sensitivity. Their approach includes 3 key characteristics: (i) an environment closely resembling actual stock markets, (ii) individual-specific reference prices, and (iii) a direct test of diminishing sensitivity as a correlate of the disposition effect. They find strong support for the existence of the disposition effect as an independent hypothesis. This is an improvement over previous studies, which tested this hypothesis only jointly with others. The authors' results also strongly point to diminishing sensitivity, of the type postulated by prospect theory, being positively associated with the disposition effect.     

Disposition Effect and Tolerance to Losses in Stock Investment Decisions: An Experimental Study

This study aims to verify whether people tolerate losses within the self-established limit through an experimental methodological procedure. In addition, it aims to analyze the decision behavior in terms of the time they take to realize gains and losses, as a way to test the manifestation of the disposition effect. The experiment consists in decision to sell stock from 4 companies, 2 with potentially negative returns and 2 with positive returns. The participants demonstrated that they accept more losses than they had attested they would bear in advance and manifested the typical disposition effect, under which people sell the winning stock earlier than the losing stock. There was no difference between men and women in the manifestation of the disposition effect, and women performed worse because they had established lower bearable losses and higher required gains in advance.     

The Effect of Confidence in Valuation Estimates on Arbitrager Behavior and Market Prices

The authors develop a complete framework for optimizing trading decisions that incorporates investors' confidence in their valuation estimates. Quantified estimates of arbitragers' uncertainty about their appraisals of asset values are shown to be extractable from market prices alone. An empirical investigation over the 1977–2015 interval indicated that confidence levels exhibit persistence subject to mean reversion, with a positive relationship found with the magnitude of existing mispricings. Higher returns are discovered to long (short) arbitrage of an asset, whose intrinsic value is higher (lower) than the market price, after rises in uncertainty among informed investors.     

The Disposition Effect and Individual Investor Decisions: The Roles of Regret and Counterfactual Alternatives

Recent studies have documented a strong tendency for individual investors to delay realizing capital losses, while realizing gains prematurely (Odean [1996], Shefrin and Statman [1985], Weber and Camerer [1996]). This tendency has been termed the "disposition effect." The disposition effect is inconsistent with normative approaches to stock sales, such as those based on tax losses (see, for example, Constantinides [1983]). We surveyed individual investors, and found that more respondents reported regret about holding on to a losing stock too long than about selling a winning stock too soon. This finding suggests that individual investors are consistently engaging in behavior that they have been warned can cost them money and that they regret later. Two additional experiments confirm the disposition effect and the role of regret, and offer evidence about the role of an agent (broker) in the assignment of blame and regret. We show that investor satisfaction and regret are not simply functions of outcome, but are influenced by counterfactual alternatives and the type of action taken (holding versus selling). We suggest that the disposition effect may be highly related to reduction of anticipated regret.     

论资本结构与公司控制权配置的优化

根据资本结构的控制权理论和我国上市公司控制权配置与资本结构现状,公司控制权配置与公司资本结构存在互动关系。在我国资本市场迅速发展的趋势下,探索并选择资本结构与控制权配置的优化途径,是业内人士与相关学者的重要责任。     

On the persistence of prices in Mexico: a fractional integration approach

A relevant yet often overlooked characteristic of the inflation rate is its mean-reverting property. If a series has this feature, shocks eventually dissipate, whereas if it does not, they have a permanent effect on the series. The usual I(1) versus I(0) dichotomy in time-series econometrics goes only so far towards disentangling this issue. By employing a methodology that estimates the persistence of inflation by allowing (i) fractional integration and (ii) persistence and level shifts in the series, we aim to define whether it is stationary and/or mean reverting and, if so, during which periods. The results of our analysis for the period 1987–2015 are threefold: firstly, inflation in the eighties and nineties should be seen as a highly persistent yet mean-reverting process (not a random walk); secondly, inflation remained mean reverting, though became a short-memory (less persistent) process around the date of the implementation of the inflation-targeting framework of 2001; thirdly, during the later phase, the level of inflation also decreased and is now within the inflation target range set by Banco de México, namely 3 per cent with an interval of ±1 percentage point.     

探究无权处分的概念界定与效力评判

无权处分的法律效果历来是民法理论和实务上的重点和难点。对于无权处分行为效力的认定应当切合《合同法》原意。本文结合我国物权模式的选择,采取体系化的民法思考方法,在利益衡量的基础上作了价值判断。无权处分订立的合同有效,这符合保护交易安全和善意第三人利益的需要,体现了合同正义原则。《合同法》第51条为无权处分订立的合同有效提供了法律适用的余地。     

The Effects of Decoy Gambles on Individual Choice

A number of studies demonstrate that individual choice can be influenced by alternatives which should be irrelevant according to standard choice theory. In these studies it has been observed that introducing a decoy option, which is either asymmetrically dominated by a target option or which makes the target a compromise, increases the likelihood of choosing the target. A common feature of earlier research on decoy effects is the use of hypothetical choice tasks. The aim of this paper is to investigate decoy effects in a properly controlled experiment where subjects are given real incentives. Here, monetary gambles are used as alternatives. The results demonstrate that decoy effects persist despite the use of real incentives.     

个人所得税改革中的马太效应及其矫正

在中国,个人所得税是通过累进的个人所得税调节收入分配,调节高收入者的收入水平,以期缩小贫富差距,逐步实现趋于社会公平的收入分配方式。然而就中国现状来看,它不仅没有起到公平收入分配的调节作用,而且也在一定程度上放大了贫富差距的“马太效应”。因此,中国个人所得税模式改革取向,应是个人所得税的工具能发挥更好的作用。     

论信心的财富效应及其对于管理的意义

财富是一个多重解读的概念,不同理论的经济学家有不同的解释.从广义虚拟经济的观点来解读财富概念,信心不但具有重要的财富效应,而且本身即是一种财富.从管理学的角度看,管理的核心是对人的管理,而信心管理则是管理人心,是管理的最高境界.     

An Experimental Study of the Disposition Effect: Evidence From Macau

The disposition effect-the tendency to sell winning transactions too soon and hold losing transactions too long-is examined experimentally in Macau. The findings show that the disposition effect exists strongly under the modified version of the experiment designed by Weber and Camerer [1998]. This study also points out that a psychological factor, the locus of control, can partly explain the disposition effect observed in this experiment.     

The Endowment Effect and the Role of Uncertainty

This paper explains the endowment effect, whereby sellers generally demand considerably more for a good than buyers are prepared to pay, and related anomalies. Many decisions, including nominating buying or selling prices, involve uncertainty, and we assert that people experience negative psychological reactions to uncertainty. These reactions can affect a person's valuation of the various options, biasing the person's actions towards the status quo, thus producing the endowment effect. Our model also proposes positive or negative reactions to unlikely prospects, which are able to explain commonly observed behaviour in the presence of ambiguity.     

数字化时代工作特征、个体特征与员工数字化创造力 -创新自我效能感的中介作用和性别的调节作用

本文以长三角地区多家企业的228名员工作为研究对象,通过问卷调研的形式对工作特征、个体特征与员工数字化创造力之间的关系,在这些关系中创新自我效能感所起到的中介作用以及性别在这一中介机制中起到的调节作用进行了实证检验,结果表明,工作特征中的工作自主性和任务多样性以及个体特征中的个体数字化技术知识分别对员工数字化创造力有显著的正向影响作用,创新自我效能感在其中起重要的中介作用,同时性别在工作特征与创新自我效能感之间起调节作用,男性更容易受到任务多样性的影响,而女性创新自我效能感的产生更易受到工作自主性的影响。     

跨国公司在华研发活动的特征、效应与对策选择

通过归纳和总结跨国公司在华研发活动在机构数量、空间集聚、行业分布、国别来源以及投资方式等方面的现状与特征,从正反两个方面分析了跨国公司在华研发活动的效应,指出跨国公司在华研发对我国研发活动产生了“溢出效应”,同时也产生了“挤出效应”,最后有针对性地提出了相关的应对思路与策略。     

员工优势使用如何影响创新行为——组织自尊与积极情绪的链式中介作用

基于自我一致性理论和情感事件理论,以认知—情感系统理论作为影响路径的逻辑脉络,构建员工优势使用通过组织自尊与积极情绪影响员工创新行为的链式中介模型,探讨差错反感文化的边界作用。采用问卷调查法在两个时间点进行数据收集,通过配对得到302份有效数据,相关分析结果表明：员工优势使用正向影响创新行为;组织自尊和积极情绪不仅分别在员工优势使用与创新行为间发挥部分中介作用,而且共同发挥链式中介作用;差错反感文化负向调节员工优势使用与创新行为、组织自尊与创新行为、积极情绪与创新行为的关系。     

The Theory of the Individual in Economics: Identity and Value

Fundamental to social provisioning is ensuring that community members have access to employment opportunities that pay living wages and sustain the environment. In a previous study, two of us (Underwood, Friesner and Cross 2014 Underwood, Daniel, Dan Friesner and Jason Cross. “Toward an Institutional Legitimation of Sustainability.” Journal of Economic Issues 48, 3 (2014): 870–885. [Google Scholar]) presented criteria for sustainable community economic development, a three-fold test to comparatively assess economic development policies: ecological holism, community centeredness, and institutional legitimacy. Applying this test generates an iterative, evolutionary process of economic development. Absent from these criteria is the concept of intention, as policy options are not “given,” but rather designed by self-interested groups to manipulate interpretations of these test criteria in advancement of their vested interests — outcomes which can be juxtaposed to the “interests of community.” Here, we integrate two additional principles: economic diversity and solidarity. Economic diversity emphasizes living wages in numerous industries to stabilize exogenous economic shocks. Solidarity, as a unit of socio-economic interdependence, stresses commonality of wellbeing within communities. Integrating solidarity and economic diversity into the criteria for sustainable community economic development improves policy design and outcomes that sustain the environment, while also providing living wage employment for community members.