计划行为视角的公共租赁住房退出意愿研究——以武汉市为例

论文借鉴计划行为理论构建公租房退出意愿分析框架,从个人及家庭特征、住房配置与运行满意程度以及退出认知等方面探索了公租房退出意愿的影响因素和特征。研究结果表明,教育程度、家庭收入、人口规模、住房面积、租金、配置满意度、退出政策知晓程度对租户退出公租房的意愿有正向影响,而对运行状况、住房环境和邻里的满意度则会抑制退出意愿。应考虑提高租户家庭收入、构建渐退机制、严格执行退出政策、宣传退出政策等办法,提高租户退出意愿,促进公租房有序退出。     

中国一线城市房租形成机理和调控对策

房租是由房屋租赁市场的需求和供给两个方面决定的,而房屋租赁市场的需求和供给都受到房屋交易市场所形成的房价的影响。房价对房屋租赁市场需求的影响主要是由于房屋租赁市场和房屋交易市场的替代效应所导致,房价对房屋租赁市场供给的影响主要由房屋租售比和房价的上涨幅度决定。我国一线城市房价近十年的平均年上涨率为10%左右,这导致了我国一线城市的房屋租售比维持在极低的水平。随着房价的平稳,房租必然大幅上涨,故必须采取措施增加一线城市房屋租赁市场的供给,以供给量的大幅增加稳定房租。     

PPP融资模式在我国公共租赁房建设中的应用研究

我国公租房建设面临着较大的资金缺口,而由于公租房项目存在资金回报率低、回收周期长的特点,传统的融资方法无法吸引私营资本的进入。本文通过对PPP（Public—Private-Partnerships）融资管理模式的分析,结合公租房项目建设的特点,探讨了PPP融资模式在我国公租房建设项目中的应用。     

Japanese Housing Tenure Choice and Welfare Implications after the Revision of the Tenant Protection Law

A new mode of housing tenure in Japan, rental housing with fixed rental terms, was introduced in March 2000 with the revision of the Japanese Tenant Protection Law. This paper examines the implications of this new system by analyzing the determinants of the choices by households among the three types of housing tenure in Japan: owned housing, general rental housing, and rental housing with fixed rental terms, and calculates the estimated compensating variation. Our micro-data is based on the three waves of Japanese household longitudinal data (Keio Household Panel Survey, KHPS) covering all of Japan. The difference between general rental housing and rental housing with fixed rental terms is reflected in the length of the contract term and the level of rent. We carefully eliminate potential sample selection bias introduced to the conditional logit housing tenure choice model through the estimation of the hedonic price regression of each housing tenure alternative. We find that households with a smaller number of family members, those who moved from outside the local housing market, those headed by an unmarried household head, and those with plans to own a house in the near future tend to select rental housing with fixed rental terms. The estimated mean compensating variation by introducing rental housing with fixed rental terms for all households selecting that tenure is 1,205 JPY per month or 1.96% of their monthly rent. Moreover, younger and/or lower income households derived the greatest benefit from the revised law in the form of lower rents.

中国住房市场波动的影响因素研究——基于租金收益率的方差分解

基于资产定价的视角,本文通过将标准的动态戈登增长模型和传统的住房使用成本模型相结合,建立了一个关于住房市场租金收益率的动态住房使用成本模型。该模型将租金收益率分解为购房的预期资金成本、预期购房相对于租房的风险溢价和预期未来租金增长率三个部分的现值之和。进一步,本文将该模型应用于京沪广深四大城市的季度数据,并使用方差分解方法来考察国内住房市场动态波动的影响因素及其相对重要性。本文结果表明,资金成本变动在四大城市的住房市场波动中为最重要的影响因素,而租金在住房市场波动中虽然存在着一定的影响作用,但并不如资金成本显著。此外,本文还发现,不能直接观测得到的购房相对于租房的风险溢价也是影响国内住房市场的一个不可忽视的重要因素。值得注意的是,近年四大城市居民租房面临的风险相对于购房正日益上升。     

Public Debt,Human Capital Formation,and Dynamic Inefficiency

The present paper considers public debt in an economy where human capital formation sustains long-run per capita income growth. It shows that contrary to what has been obtained in other types of endogenous growth economies public debt may benefit current and future generations by removing dynamic inefficiency.     

Duration of Residence in the Rental Housing Market

This paper estimates a proportional hazard model of duration of residence in rental housing over 1987–1998 based on a unique dataset from the BLS-CPI housing sample together with American Housing Survey and other metropolitan economic data. The paper employs an innovative semi-parametric estimation approach for group duration analysis of the proportional hazard model. Results of the analysis indicate that the duration of residence in rental housing varies significantly across individual units and market segments, and is effected by tenant, dwelling, and market characteristics. An improved understanding of duration of residence offers new insights as regards fluctuations in tenant turnover, building occupancy, and rent flows, as well as new confidence in pro forma assumptions critical to rental housing development.     

What Accounts for the Differences in Rent-Price Ratio and Turnover Rate? A Search-and-Matching Approach

We build an on-the-house search model and show that two frequently used metrics for the housing market, the rent-to-price ratio (or rental yield) and the turnover rate, are jointly determined in equilibrium. We, therefore, estimate a simultaneous equations system on matched sale-rental pairs, as a housing unit cannot be owner-occupied and renter-occupied at the same time. We confirm that a higher turnover rate is associated with a lower rental yield. We also identify a form of “dichotomy” in empirical determinants of rental yields and turnover rates at the estate level: the demographic structure and past returns affect an estate’s turnover rate, while popularity, human capital, mortgage burdens, and long-run rent growth determine its rental yield. The robustness of our results is established through a series of tests. Our popularity index for 130 estates in Hong Kong, estate rankings, and the brand premia of major real estate developers may carry independent interests.     

The experience with rent control in Israel: From rental housing to condominiums

During the past decades, home ownership has replaced privately owned rental housing as the dominant form of tenure in Israel. An important factor in this transition has been rent control. This paper examines the development of the rent control system, surveys the other major housing policies, and considers the main effects of rent control on the housing market.The Israeli rent control system is characterized by far reaching security of tenure; rent ceilings that are a fraction of the free-market rent; legalized key money shared between owner and tenant; and decontrol after a tenant dies or the landlord repurchases the unit. Consequently, the construction of privately owned rental housing has ceased. The controlled sector is disappearing, and the remaining stock is badly undermaintained and deteriorating.     

Economic and political aspects of negotiated rents in the Swedish housing market

The aim of this paper is to describe the rent control system in Sweden, evaluate the effects on consumption and production in the housing market, and provide a public choice explanation of the present rent control system.The first section of this paper contains introductory remarks and an overview of the rental market in Sweden. The Swedish rent control system and its prerequisites are described in section 2. Attention is given to two important prerequisites: the existence of a large municipal housing sector and a strong tenants' movement. As a result, a rent system has been developed with all rents set by negotiations. The rent structure is determined by a fairness principle, which has some resemblance to market adapted rents. The rent level will be determined by a non-profit condition in municipal housing companies.In section 3 the effects of the existing rent control system are discussed with the municipality of Stockholm as a test case. Effects on rent level and rent structure are evaluated, and the relation between rent policy in municipal housing companies and resulting rents in private housing is analyzed. Gains and losses to tenants and landlords are evaluated as well as effects on construction and maintenance.In section 4 a political perspective is discussed. The aim is to explain why the system is not implemented in the market adapted way it was intended. Finally, the future of the rent system is discussed.     

Growth and Welfare Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Investment

In this paper we analyze growth and welfare effects of fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model along the balanced growth path. As to the model we assume that sustained per capita growth results from public investment. The government uses its tax revenue for investment in public capital, for investment subsidy and for transfer payments. We then analyze how the balanced growth rate reacts to variations in those policy variables. Further, we study welfare effects of varying the fiscal parameters and demonstrate that, in general, maximizing economic growth is not equivalent to maximizing welfare on the balanced growth path.     

Immigration and local spending in social services: evidence from a massive immigration wave

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between immigration and redistributive public spending by using the recent, massive arrival of immigrants in Spain. Specifically, we focus our analysis on the effect of 1998–2006 changes in local immigrant density on contemporaneous changes in municipal spending in social services. To address the potential endogenous location of immigrants, we adopt an instrumental variables approach that uses the distribution of rental housing in 1991 to predict the location of immigrant inflows. The results indicate that (per capita) social spending increased less in those municipalities that recorded the largest increases in immigrant density. We interpret our results as a reduction in natives’ demand for redistributive public spending.     

Vacancies and Rent Dispersion in a Stochastic Search Model with Generalized Tenant Demand

I model imperfect information, derive a downward sloping market demand curve, and explain vacancies in a partial equilibrium model of a rental housing market. Tenants can be completely described by an exogenous demand curve, perhaps arising from differences in income, preferred location, or tastes, and view vacant units based on a stochastic arrival of rental information. Free entry of these landlords induces excess rental housing capacity (equilibrium vacancies). I determine the equilibrium distribution of rents for vacant units, show that this rent distribution may be discontinuous, and explore the equilibrium vacancy rate to changes in exogenous parameters. The resulting characterization of equilibrium distributions of rents may be amenable to econometric modeling exploring the relationship between market rents and vacancies.     

Housing Rents and Inflation Rates

This paper develops a quality-adjusted measure of marginal housing rents using a monthly statistic of landlord net rental income. The marginal rent index (MRI) exhibits deflation during recessions and leads the official rent index by 7 months. The modified inflation rate based on MRI suggests that the annual official inflation rate was overestimated by 1.7–4.1% during the Great Recession but underestimated by 0.3–0.7% during the subsequent expansionary period.     

劳动力转移对农户消费和投资水平的影响

劳动力转移会显著提高农户人均生活消费和人均居住支出水平,但对农户人均生产性固定资产购置支出没有产生显著影响。通过劳动力就地转移方式和异地转移方式的比较发现,就地转移会使农户人均生活消费和人均居住支出水平得以提高,但异地转移却对农户人均生活消费和人均居住支出没有产生显著影响,同时,两种转移方式对农户人均生产性固定资产购置支出均没有产生显著影响。     

What Drives the Owner‐Occupied and Rental Housing Markets? Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

Most dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with a housing market do not explicitly include a rental market and assume a tight mapping between house prices and rents over the business cycle. However, rents are much smoother than house prices in the data. We match this feature of the data by adding both an owner‐occupied housing market and a rental market in a standard DSGE model. The intertemporal preference shock accounts for more than half of the variation in house prices and contributes to residential investment fluctuations through the liquidity constraint, and nominal rigidity in rental contracts captures the variation in the price‐rent ratio.     

Pricing the US residential asset through the rent flow: A cross-sectional study

The paper explores how the standard consumption-CAPM fares in pricing housing returns and regional rental income streams in a cross-section of regions. In particular, we estimate the Euler equations associated with the gross housing returns inclusive of price appreciations and rents jointly for several metropolitan areas of the US. The representative agent has a Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility. The rent growth is allowed to depend on the business cycle. When biannual data from 1978 to 2007 is used, the parameter estimates are reasonable, and the model is not rejected. Large standard errors indicate uninformative estimates. The implied price rent ratio time series averages are similar to the data; however the model misses the boom-bust pattern in the prices. The model significantly understates the average and the variance of the price appreciations. Results are robust to allowing housing consumption directly in the utility function or using the Epstein–Zin–Weil utility.     

Housing and Tax Policy

This paper investigates the effects of housing‐related tax policy measures on macroeconomic aggregates using a dynamic general‐equilibrium model featuring borrowing and lending across heterogeneous households, financial frictions in the form of collateral constraints tied to house prices, and a rental housing market alongside owner‐occupied housing. We analyze the effects of various tax policies and find that they all lead to significant output losses, with large long‐run tax multipliers of around 2. Among them, reducing the mortgage interest deduction is the most effective in raising tax revenue per unit of output lost, whereas reducing the depreciation allowance for rental income is the least effective.     

新兴房屋租赁模式的思考--以一二线城市房地产市场供需为例

当前我国房地产市场出现结构性矛盾,一二城市住房价格上涨过快,而三四城市供大于求,面临较大去库存压力。因此,一些互联网企业、新兴创业投资公司乃至大型房地产企业开始在一二线城市创新住房租赁模式,布局住房租赁市场。5月4日召开的国务院常务会议提出培育和发展住房租赁市场,推进新型城镇化以满足群众住房需求。从国家政策的层面鼓励房屋租赁市场的发展,这是在年初多措并举降低房地产库存的背景下,国务院出台的又一新政。实行购租并举,发展住房租赁市场,是深化住房制度改革的重要内容,有利于加快改善居民尤其是新市民住房条件,推动新型城镇化进程,为青年创新创业提供安居保障。因此,有必要针对这一新兴业态给予一定的金融政策支持。     

The relationship between rents and prices of owner-occupied housing in Taiwan

This article analyzes the changes of equilibrium rent and equilibrium price of owner-occupied housing in Taiwan, and also computes the rent multiplier and its trend in the past ten years in Taiwan to show how the housing consumption and housing investment change. A hedonic rent equation and a hedonic housing price equation are built first. Then, we apply the Housing Survey Report data from 1979 to 1989, and employ ordinary-least squares method to estimate the two equations. Using estimated coefficients of the two equations, we compute the market rents for owner-occupied housing and the market prices for rental housing. Finally, the rent multipliers are calculated from the market rents and market prices. The article finds that (1) changes of housing prices in Taipei lead to price changes in Kaoshung, and the latter leads Taiwan province; (2) changes of rent are much smaller than the changes of housing price; and (3) housing prices in Taiwan increased drastically. We also find: (1) at the peak of the housing market cycle, the rent multiplier is extremely high; (2) the rent multiplier drops in the year after the peak year because the rent catches up; (3) the rent multiplier in Taipei is greater than that of Kaoshung, and the multiplier in Kaoshung is greater than that of Taiwan province; and (4) overall, the rent multiplier in Taiwan is much greater than that of the United States.