VAPORWARE*

It is a widely adopted practice for firms to announce new products well in advance of actual market availability, especially in the computer industry. In this article, a firm makes pre‐announcements on its product, which are “cheap talk.” We develop a reputation model of “vaporware” where the product pre‐announcement can partially convey information about the product's quality. We discuss its implications for social welfare.     

Can financial media sentiment predict merger and acquisition performance?

This paper explores whether and how media serves as an information intermediary in the capital market and predicts value creation from mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Using a sample of 288 M&A deals in the U.S. market from 2000 to 2015, this paper examines whether pre-merger news about acquirers correlates to M&A performance. The empirical evidence shows that a positive media attitude before merger announcements has predictive power for stock returns in both the short and long run. Moreover, media pessimism is associated with higher bid premiums, meaning that acquirers must raise the bid price to offset the negative effects produced by the media. These findings suggest that media news contains information relevant to M&A performance and thus has implications for shareholder wealth.     

The effect of natural gas discoveries in Israel on the strength of its currency

In light of the natural gas discoveries in the Mediterranean Sea and their impact on the Israeli economy, I must assess the change in the exchange rate and its impact on the foreign exchange market. There are numerous positive social impacts resulting from the gas discoveries including optimising Israel's energy security and its move to cleaner energy. However, not all of the consequences of discovering natural resources may be positive. One possibly negative outcome could be the well-known phenomenon called the “Dutch disease” in which the discovery of a natural resource can cause a country's currency to spike. To investigate whether the strengthening of the Israeli currency in recent years is a symptom of the “Dutch disease” I used daily and intraday event study methodology to explore the changes in the real exchange rate of the Israeli shekel and the US dollar between 2008 and 2017, according to announcements related to the gas discoveries published during this period. In addition, I examined whether an increase in the real exchange rate was a result of the publication of announcements about natural gas harming the manufacturing and industrial sectors. I found that announcements related to gas discoveries did affect the real exchange rate and caused an appreciation of the Israeli shekel. Investors could analyse the announcements and achieve an abnormal return in the foreign exchange market. In addition, investors' expectations of an appreciation in the real exchange rate causes damage to various manufacturing and industrial sectors.     

A structural event study for M&As: an application in corporate governance

We apply structural event study methodology in the context of corporate governance to account for the interaction of two merger and acquisition (M&A) effects: synergy (total value) and dominance (bargaining power). The interaction of these effects simultaneously determines the parties’ abnormal returns. We posit that M&A synergy effects correspond to changes in agency costs between target’s management and target’s shareholders, while the dominance effects correspond to the balance of power between acquirer and target during negotiations. Our structural estimates suggest that more stable or entrenched directors generate higher value during normal operations but are softer negotiators when their firm becomes an acquisition target.     

Getting post-M&A integration mechanisms tuned in to technological relatedness and innovation synergy realisation

Studies on Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) typically relate innovation synergies to either context characteristics or post-M&A integration. There is little research on how to tune the relevant practices to the benefit of realising specific innovation synergies. It is the purpose of this paper to develop a conceptual framework on innovation synergy realisation in large M&As, that relates the following components: (1) strategic M&A characteristics; and (2) post-M&A integration mechanisms; to (3) innovation synergy realisation. The research explored how different innovation synergies were achieved in nine large medium-tech and high-tech M&As in the life sciences. From this case studies research, it turns out that higher degrees of technological relatedness allow for the realisation of more types of innovation synergy, brought about by the more demanding integration mechanisms structural linking and process re-design.     

The effect of Airbnb announcements on hotel stock prices

The sharing economy model that was developed in the last decade has a major effect on a different aspect of life. The purpose of this research is to test the effect of a sharing economy product on its competitors. Specifically, this study used the event study approach to examine how Airbnb announcements affected hotel stock prices. To accomplish this goal, we used 180 Airbnb announcements to investigate the general effect of Airbnb, and the effects according to the type of announcement and the type of audience. The findings indicate that general Airbnb announcements have a negative effect on the hotel stock prices. In addition, investors respond negatively to positive announcements but not to neutral ones. Finally, announcements targeting young people have no effect on the stock prices of hotel companies, while the effect of announcements targeting families lasts the longest. We also explored investment strategies for general investors and those with inside information. We suggest that general investors short sell the stock on the day of the news announcement. Investors with inside information should short sell the stock a few days before the day of the news announcement. In both cases, investors should close their positions a few days later depending on the type of announcement.     

Market efficiency and investors' adjustments to asset valuation errors

Market participants are hypothesized to form expectations of future earnings by a process of adjustments to new earnings information while taking into account the pattern of errors in past judgements. Using an ‘adaptive expectations’ model, 140 New York Stock Exchange sample firms were classified as over- or undervalued based on earnings on announcement date versus market expectations. Comparing the risk-adjusted returns of the over- and undervalued securities for two four-year test periods, the conclusion is drawn that the securities market reacts to earnings announcements efficiently.     

Can M&A activities act as a predictor of the performance of economic growth or stock prices?

One of the important issues with regard to the relationship between M&As (mergers and acquisitions) and economic growth or stock prices is whether such activities can act as a predictor of these two variables' performance, or whether these variables have resulted in significant impacts on M&A activities. The aim of this paper is to use the method proposed in Kónya (2006) to carry out a causality test among M&A activities, economic growth and stock prices, because the causal relationships that may be uncovered by this would be meaningful for both policymakers and stockholders. This paper uses quarterly data from six OECD countries for the period from April 1980 to March 2010. The bootstrap panel Granger causality test that this work applies also considers cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity simultaneously. The findings of the paper are as follows. There is significant, one-way causality from stock prices to M&A activities, and thus changes in stock prices lead M&A activities. With real GDP as the control variable, for all the countries surveyed, except Australia, stock prices lead M&A activities. As for the impact that economic growth has on M&A activities, we conclude that, when using stock prices as the control variable, there is almost no lead-lag relationship between economic growth and M&A activities, except for in Japan.     

Exchange rate pass-through in Turkish export and import prices

This article investigates the effects of horizontal acquisitions on the performance of target firms in the 1990s. Using French manufacturing firm-level data, we examine two main indicators of performance: the profit and the productive efficiency. We distinguish domestic from cross-border acquisitions. To evaluate the impact of take-overs, we implement appropriate difference-in-difference estimation techniques associated to a matching propensity score procedure. We find that Mergers &?Acquisitions (M&A) do not increase the profit of French target firms, even on the long run. However, they clearly raise the productivity of target firms. These results suggest that firms probably redistribute efficiency gains at the upstream and/or downstream production stage. There is no evidence of an increase in market power. In addition, the consequences of domestic and cross-border M&A significantly differ. Efficiency gains are stronger for cross-border M&A. This conclusion is however true only for extra-European Union operations. The achievement in the European economic integration certainly explains the absence of difference between European and domestic acquisitions. Finally, our results cast some doubt on the frequent discrimination attitude towards foreign takeovers and the fears of their impact on firms’ performance and the host country's welfare.     

The game analyses to price the target enterprise of merger and acquisition based on the perspective of real options under stochastic surroundings

Although several approaches have been developed to evaluate the target enterprise of merger and acquisition (M&A) such as classical net present value (NPV) evaluation model and real options techniques, the logic of pricing processes in all these approaches is still faulty. The classical approach of NPV perspective to price the target enterprise of M&A has been replaced by integration of contemporary perspectives such as NPV perspective, real options perspective, game perspective, and so on. In this paper, the dynamic analyses model to price the target enterprise of M&A is developed from the perspective of real options integrated with game theory under stochastic surroundings. The synergy multiplication coefficient is introduced into the evaluation model to reflect the synergy management process of M&A, and the equilibrium price formula is proposed by applying the famous offer-counteroffer Rubinstein theorem, which is improved to fit for the stochastic surroundings. The price formula is further discussed on condition that the operating cost is more than or less than profit flow, which is assumed to follow geometric Brownian motion process. The numeric simulations show that the proposed formulas in this paper can perfectly well reflect the realistic practice of M&A.     

经济政策不确定性、产业政策与中国企业海外并购

本文通过融入偏向性产业政策特征,拓展了在经济政策不确定下企业并购时机选择的实物期权模型。本文使用2002—2018年中国上市企业海外并购数据,从微观层面检验了经济政策不确定性对企业海外并购时机选择的影响以及产业政策对上述影响的调节作用。理论研究发现不确定性升高会导致企业最优并购时机延后,产业政策会缓解上述影响从而使得并购呈现“逆势”特征。实证检验证实了中国企业海外并购存在“逆势”特征,且“五年规划”产业政策是中国企业呈现“逆势”并购特征的重要推动力。机制分析显示,“五年规划”产业政策通过缓解融资约束和增加政府补贴两个渠道影响企业海外并购时机选择。相对于未实施海外并购的企业,在上一期实施了并购的企业获得贷款资金和国家补贴资金显著提高。企业对上述“政策收益”的预期进一步助推了其海外并购决策。     

知情交易概率能够测度信息风险吗?——以并购公告前后的信息效应为例

本文利用2004～2008年的86起并购重组事件考察了并购公告前后信息结构的变化。发现在并购公告之前,存在显著的信息泄漏。本文检验了并购公告前后知情交易概率(PIN)的变化,发现并购公告前的PIN低于并购公告后的PIN,从而表明PIN无法准确地反映信息不对称程度,因而PIN并不是衡量信息不对称的很好指标。另外,买卖价差在并购公告之前逐渐上升,并购公告之后逐渐下降,因此,买卖价差能够较好地反映信息结构的变化。     

Good and useless FDI: The growth effects of greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions

We explore the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, distinguishing between mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and “greenfield” investment. A simple model underlines that, unlike greenfield investment, M&As partly represent a rent accruing to previous owners, and do not necessarily contribute to expanding the host country's capital stock. Greenfield FDI should therefore have a stronger impact on growth than M&A sales. This hypothesis is supported by our empirical results that are based on a panel of up to 127 industrialized, emerging, and developing countries over 1990 to 2010.     

Will FinTech make regional banks superfluous for small firm finance? Observations from soft information-based lending in Germany

Regional banks have a competitive advantage in that short distances to clients enable the use of soft information for superior lending decisions. If the ambition of FinTech start-ups to create superior screening and monitoring technologies materialises, this advantage would be diminished and regional banks would become superfluous for small firm finance. To explore this claim, the paper in hand analyses qualitative empirical data about the lending processes and rating system use of regional German savings banks. In essence, the results from participant observation and interviews clarify the importance of “real” soft information for critical lending decisions. The context specificity and limited verifiability of “real” soft information hamper it from being hardened through the use of rating systems and other bank-ICT. Though FinTech's scoring technologies may overcome the first limitation, it appears likely that in the course of scoring development “real” soft information will be systematically crowded out due to the manipulation problem. The paper expects improved access to finance for SMEs if FinTech solutions overcome both limitations of “real” soft information use, or if peer-to-peer lending and regional banks coexist. Deteriorated access to finance is expected if FinTech companies displace the relationship banking of regional banks due to enhanced competition, without preserving the advantages of “real” soft information with superior screening and monitoring technologies. The paper concludes with recommendations on how to prevent deteriorated access to finance for small firms by promoting fair competition and FinTech innovations.     

Animal spirits and the composition of innovation in a lab-equipment R&D model with transition

We study the effect of animal spirits on the composition of aggregate R&D, the consumption level and economic growth in a tournament model of horizontal and vertical R&D. By considering a full lab-equipment specification, the model predicts a positive effect of animal spirits on the balanced-growth-path (BGP) level of per-capita consumption without impacting on economic growth and on aggregate vertical R&D. However, transition is slower under “waves of enthusiasm”, implying a longer period in which growth rates are higher than the BGP level. An economy that is subject to expectations shocks then converges at a time-varying speed. On average over time, transition is longer but less “painful”—i.e., with higher per-capita consumption levels—than otherwise.     

State‐Society Synergy and Export Sophistication

This paper contributes to the recent research on “export sophistication,” or the composition of a country's export portfolio. The central question of the current study is what determines a country's level of export sophistication. I argue that a synergetic relationship between state and society positively contributes to the level of export sophistication. The logic behind the argument is that the socially optimal level of investment in new products can only be realized if both the firm and the government find it individually profitable to carry out the investment. In cases whereby either or both lacks private incentive to invest, higher synergy between public and private sectors makes such joint investments more likely to occur. This logic is formally illustrated using a simultaneous game with incomplete information. The central hypothesis is tested using time series cross‐sectional data. The key empirical novelty of this paper is the construction of a “synergy index” based on Peter Evans' conceptualization of the term. Overall, the data give good support to the hypothesis. This relationship is particularly robust for the subsample of countries with intermediate levels of synergy. Furthermore, there is evidence suggesting that state‐society synergy is subject to diminishing returns as its values get higher.     

The New York Times and Wall Street Journal: Does Their Coverage of Earnings Announcements Cause “Stale” News to Become “New” News?

Recent research suggests that the stock market reacts to stale information if it is reported in the media because it is gives the impression of being “new” news. The objective of this study is to provide a unique test of this hypothesis using the time-series properties of quarterly earnings. It is well documented that seasonally differenced quarterly earnings for adjacent quarters are positively correlated. Therefore a component of current quarter earnings when reported is news that was known or predictable at the end of the prior quarter and thus is old news. We find for those firms that receive media coverage in the Wall Street Journal and The New York Times that the price reaction at the time of the announcement of current earnings to past quarter's seasonally differenced quarterly earnings is greater than those firms that do not receive media coverage. The result is consistent with stale earnings information being given the appearance of new information resulting in a further price reaction. This suggests that the stale information hypothesis and media coverage could be a partial explanation for post-earnings announcement drift.     

上市公司市值管理的有效性研究*——基于企业并购绩效的实证分析

在不完美市场和信息不对称的背景下,企业并购能否通过协同效应带来有效的市值管理？本文选取了在2007—2010年期间发生并购的A股上市公司,检验了并购的价值创造和市值管理有效性之间的联系,并做了分组检验。实证结果表明,对企业未来三年经营绩效有正协同效应的并购可以为上市公司带来更高的市值管理效用。分组检验结果进一步显示,投资者更为关注异地并购、同行业并购、民企并购以及股权分散型企业并购。这些并购类型的市值管理更为有效。     

Effect of piracy on innovation in the presence of network externalities

This paper analyzes the impact of simultaneous increases in piracy (piracy effect) and network externalities (network effect) on R&D investment. A single firm's R&D investment increases (or decreases) if the network effect (or piracy effect) is dominant. With R&D competition, if the firms “significantly” differ with respect to their R&D efficiencies and if the piracy effect dominates the network effect then the less efficient firm's R&D investment increases and that of the more efficient firm's decreases. In this case, the overall probability of successful innovation increases. The reverse holds if the network effect dominates the piracy effect. If the firms are “less” asymmetric then their R&D investment either increases or decreases depending on the relative strengths of the piracy and network effects.     

The role and contribution of networks in M&A of innovative ventures: can lessons learned from networks of Israeli start-ups be applied by China?

Networks’ impact on business outcome is documented in various theories. We examined the role of specific actors in the networks of successful Israeli technology ventures and identified the actor's contribution during early, advanced, and merger and acquisition (M&A) stages. A mixed qualitative–quantitative method was applied to collect insight and data from 185 founder-entrepreneurs who exited via M&A. A name generator-interpreter technique was used to obtain details on the role and contribution of 768 actors. Our findings pointed to the influential role of actors such as Venture Capitalists , angels, board members, and multinational firms, as well as the vital contribution of foreign actors, during M&A transactions. We further draw implications to illustrate that, if applied, lessons learned from sell-side acquired ventures can benefit Chinese companies in their quest to acquire innovation via M&A. We suggest that the understanding of networks practiced by acquired ventures can increase buyers’ accessibility and visibility to target opportunities and improve M&A outcomes.