行为金融学视角下信用风险管理研究

随着金融市场上各种异常现象的累积,模型和实际的背离使得传统金融理论的理性分析范式陷入了尴尬境地,行为金融理论悄然兴起。阐述了行为金融学的产生,研究了行为金融对信用风险管理的影响,最后探讨了行为金融学视角下对金融租赁公司信用风险研究的启示。     

LES LOGIQUES D'ACTEURS DES FINANCES SOLIDAIRES CONTEMPORAINES: DE LA RESISTANCE A LA RESILIENCE?

RESUME ** :  Cet article explore la pluralité des logiques d'action qui organise les finances solidaires contemporaines à partir d'études et d'expériences françaises. Il s'articule en deux points. D'une part, il analyse le glissement d'une finance alternative vers une finance solidaire sur les vingt-cinq dernières années et, interroge les frontières «zone de conflit>> entre cette autre finance et la finance standard. D'autre part, il insiste sur l'attraction des isomorphismes qu'ils soient marchands ou non marchands menaçant la pleine affirmation de la finance solidaire, tout en démontrant une certaine capacité de résistance et de partenariats.     

Beyond Behavioral Finance

Throughout its history, finance theory has made certain simplifying assumptions regarding human behavior and concerned itself with whether the implications of these assumptions were true and not with whether the assumptions themselves were. Recently, however, more interest has been shown in experimental investigation of these assumptions, and the resultant behavioral finance has been presented as a significant departure from the current research paradigm. Recent research in cognitive science, however, is finding that the mind can and does work differently than traditional finance assumes, and the differences between the behavioral assumptions of traditional finance and the supposedly more realistic ones of today's behavioral finance are frequently superficial. Knowledge and knowing are likely to be profoundly different from the forms in which we have incorporated them in our extant models, both traditional and behavioral, and they differ in ways similar to those which, for example, have differentiated corporations from corporate images in marketing. To truly understand what is going on we must go beyond behavioral finance to address these differences.     

持续性不平等的原因及其动态演化综述

该文综述了国内外行为研究中金融资产定价异常现象的文献,提出绝大部分金融资产定价异常可按偏离类型归为横截面定价异常、基础衍生定价异常二个维度.金融资产定价异常二维分类方法简单,具有排他性和完备性,同时解决了目前行为金融研究分散、无逻辑和内涵模糊的问题,为其发展打开了新空间;更重要的是二维体系有望将红利贴现模型、CAPM、Fama&French的三因素模型和APT模型统一,形成一个包含二维定价因子的新资产定价模型.     

企业投资管理的创新研究

通过分析研究企业投资决策人存在的认知偏差和非理性行为,提出了企业投资决策中的行为财务创新策略:企业投资决策人必须熟悉在企业投资决策中各种认知偏差和非理性行为的特征,善于学习、了解和接受行为财务相关新投资理念,保持谦虚冷静、自省自律心态,实行集体决策和科学决策,建立投资项目终止机制等。     

Professionals’ endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?

This paper provides evidence on the hypothesis that many behavioral finance patterns are so deeply rooted in human behavior that they are difficult to overcome by learning. We test this on a target group which has undoubtedly very strong incentives to learn efficient behavior, i.e. fund managers. We split this group into endorsers and non-endorsers of behavioral finance. Endorsers do, indeed, view markets differently as they regard stronger influences from behavioral biases. However, when it comes to the perception of one's own behavior the endorsement of behavioral finance becomes almost meaningless, even though endorsers otherwise do adapt behavior towards their conviction.     

金融租赁风险特性及其管理研究——基于行为金融理论

在由美国次贷危机引发的经济危机已经席卷全球的今天,对风险特别是金融风险的审视和管理迫在眉睫。金融租赁是一种将＂融资＂与＂融物＂结合为一体的新型融资手段、投资方式和贸易方式,成为连接金融、贸易和工业生产的桥梁。金融租赁风险相对于其他金融机构业务,如银行贷款业务的风险比较,具有一些特殊性。研究表明,承租企业的风险偏好、过度自信均对金融租赁公司的信用风险产生影响;期望理论和羊群行为均体现了金融租赁公司自身的有限理性,从而放大了自身的信用风险。     

Does Implied Volatility Pricing Follow the Tenets of Prospect Theory?

Abstract

Prospect theory and behavioral finance are gaining recognition as useful frameworks for the analysis of economic behaviors. Yet, behavioral finance is generally concerned with specific anomalies and individual behaviors and does not deal with market indices. To bridge this gap, the authors studied the changes in the value of implied volatility indices on several markets, relative to changes in the level of the corresponding equity indices with dividends reinvestment. We hypothesized that the relation should follow the psychological tenets of prospect theory. In accordance with this hypothesis, the authors found concavity in the gain area, convexity in the loss area, and evidence that market losses have more impact than gains on the pricing of implied volatility indices. These findings are observed in all the markets under consideration and are robust to the use of different functional forms. The parameters are in the range observed in previous laboratory studies but vary in different trading environments.     

The Ecological Economic Model Based on Bounded Rational Agents

I. Introduction Ecology is a newly emergent subject. Stemming from natural history and evolutionary biology, ecology came into being at the beginning of the 20th century. Ecology has been strug- gling for its existence as a science, which has involved a s…     

A Turning Point Method For Measuring Investor Sentiment

Technical analysis has always been a controversial topic with weak evidence in the literature while behavioral finance has enjoyed success. Yet the objective of technical analysis is to measure investors’ behavior, implying the need to reexamine the study of technical methods. This study begins to close the gap in evidence between behavioral finance and technical analysis by developing an objective turning point methodology to infer unobservable investor sentiment. Using Parkinson's [1980] estimate of volatility, the findings indicate that the turning point method not only captures investor sentiment effectively, but more effectively than traditional time-static methods.     

基于有限理性智能体的生态经济模型

From the view of hominine bounded rationalities, this paper analyzes the important relationships between ecology and economics with behavioral finance. With a different focus, this paper adopts a new conceptualization of stock to show how this conceptualization leads to a new measure of the interaction between ecology and economics, based on bounded rational agents. The hierarchical structure of ecological economic system is described with a multi-agent simulation program. This paper also develops an ecological economic model, in which behavioral finance theories are applied to simulating the dynamics system. With the model, this paper confirms that macro-level indicators of sustainability are predictably influenced by behaviors of bounded rational agents at the micro-level. We discuss the significance of these findings in order to better understand the ecological-economic system based on behavioral finance.     

经济不确定、银行管理者乐观主义与银行风险承担

基于行为金融理论的有限理性，本文从行为金融学的角度将管理者乐观主义置于经济不确定性与银行风险承担的关系中，利用中国商业银行2008-2017年的季度数据，通过中介效应的两阶段回归实证检验了经济不确定性、管理者乐观主义与银行风险承担三者的关系。研究结果发现：经济不确定性增加会抑制管理者乐观主义的心理偏差；管理者乐观主义会使得银行风险增加；在经济不确定性影响银行风险承担过程中，至少有一部分是通过“管理者乐观主义的中介渠道”实现的，而管理者乐观主义的中介作用具体表现为“遮掩效应”。进一步研究发现，在经济不确定性与银行风险承担的关系中，银行市场纪律约束具有调节作用，并且该调节效应至少部分是通过管理者乐观主义中介渠道而发挥作用的。     

政府在农村金融市场重构中的功能与定位

完善农村金融市场是解决中国＂三农＂问题的重要前提之一。政府在农村金融市场重构中的功能与定位,应从协调推进农村公共财政改革与农村金融改革、建立多层次竞争的农村金融体系、完善农村金融市场法律、优化农村金融生态环境等多角度协调健全发展农村金融市场。     

Les finances solidaires et l'économie sociale en roumanie: une réponse de «proximités» à la régionalisation d'une économie en transition?

La Roumanie apparaît en Europe centrale et orientale comme un territoire d'expérimentation d'une forme particulière d'économie sociale liant coopératives et organisations «not‐for‐profit». En transition économique et sociale, la Roumanie est également un pays en transition territoriale dont les systèmes de financements locaux ont quitté leur approche centralement planifiée, pour rejoindre un secteur financier solidaire dont les Instituts de Microfinance (IMFs) sont les principaux acteurs. La question à laquelle cet article tente d'apporter quelques éléments de réponse est celle du rôle de la finance solidaire locale dans la soutenabilité des transitions socio‐économiques territoriales en cours. Il s'agit d'envisager une économie humaine au sein de laquelle les conditions dignes de vie, nous amène à envisager un modèle particulier d'économie conviviale située à partir des outils conviviaux des finances solidaires locales.     

财经类大学生思想行为特点及对策研究

文章认为高校财经类专业学生在思想观念、专业学习、文化素质、情感等方面具有与其它专业不同的特点,并根据财经类专业学生的思想特点和行为方式,探讨了教育管理内容,提高思想政治教育工作的针对性和实效性。     

基于行为金融理论的机构投资者羊群行为分析

中国股票市场不完善,经常出现剧烈波动,投资者相互模仿的行为非常普遍,股市上跟风跟庄此起彼伏,齐涨齐跌的现象比比皆是。这种现象在行为金融理论中称为"羊群行为"。运用行为金融理论,对其羊群行为特征进行解释和分析,并提出相应对策建议,以促进中国基金业及股市的稳定健康发展。     

金融复杂性与行为金融理论

金融市场是一个复杂性系统,其中市场异象一直是金融界争论的焦点问题,行为金融理论从主观复杂性出发,引入了心理学、社会学的研究成果,以人的有限理性为前提,分析投资者的认知偏差,建立投资者行为模型,对现代金融理论体系形成巨大冲击。通过对金融复杂性的表现、行为金融的微观基础及理论模型的系统研究,可作出展望与评价。     

DÉterminants de la Performance de Remboursement Dans Les Institutions de MicroFinance au BÉnin

Resume ** :  Les Institutions de MicroFinance nées après la libéralisation financière des années 90 pour répondre à la demande spécifique des petites entreprises ont très tôt révélé leurs limites en matière de performance de remboursement au Bénin. La présente étude a identifié les déterminants du taux de remboursement dans les IMF du Bénin. Les résultats permettent de conclure que les facteurs liés à l'expertise, à la confiance de l'emprunteur dans son projet et à son intégration dans sa communauté(garantie immatérielle) d'une part et les facteurs liés à l'expertise des gestionnaires des IMF d'autre part, sont déterminants dans le dénouement heureux des crédits .     

农村发展中金融要素作用的实证分析

农村金融是农业及农村经济发展的“核心”,新农村建设离不开金融的有效支持。通过建立分析农村金融作用的指标体系,运用因子分析法计算得出农村金融作用质量的得分,分析各因素对农村金融作用的影响程度。研究发现：农村经济货币化程度对农村经济发展起到非常重要的作用,农村金融对农村建设发挥着越来越大的作用。因此,要充分挖掘农村金融发展对农村经济发展、农户增收的作用,要扩大农村金融规模,强化支农效率：改革农村金融中介机构,引导资金回流;加大城乡金融调控力度以促进农民增收,加强对中小企业的信贷支持,加强对农业和农民的信贷支持。