后次贷危机时期对中国证券市场对外开放问题的再思考

20世纪80年代以来,各新兴市场国家相继全面开放证券市场.新兴市场国家证券市场的对外开放一方面促进了这些国家证券市场和经济的发展,同时,这些开放国家的金融风险和金融动荡也在增加.本文在分析次贷危机对新兴证券市场的影响后,提出了次贷危机后我国证券市场全面对外开放应该注意的问题.     

QFII制度安排与我国金融自由化

金融自由化是经济全球化趋势下不可逆转的潮流,同时也是我国经济发展的内在需要。但存在金融脆弱性的条件下,金融自由化意味着巨大的金融风险。合格的境外机构投资者(QFII)制度是新兴市场经济国家和地区普遍实施的,在货币没有实现完全可自由兑换、资本项目尚未开放的情况下有限度地引进外资、开放资本市场的一项过渡性制度。本文通过分析QFII制度安排对证券市场产生的作用和影响,试图寻求一条稳妥有序的金融自由化道路。     

合格境外机构投资者(QFⅡ)制度对我国证券市场的影响研究

自2003年至今,QFⅡ在中国的数量越来越多,对中国证券市场的影响也越来越大.借鉴新兴市场国家和地区的经验和教训从不同角度对QFⅡ制度对中国证券市场的影响进行分析,并提出进一步推进QFⅡ制度的政策建议,努力消除QFⅡ制度所带来的不利影响,对推动中国证券市场的健康发展及全面开放有着重要的意义.     

中国证券市场非均衡性分析

一、引言1955年 ,格利和肖 (GurleyandShaw)首先提出了金融对经济发展的重要意义。70年代 ,麦金农(Michinnon)和肖又从金融抑制论的角度 ,认为打破金融抑制 ,发展高效的证券市场是发展中国家经济增长的关键。近几十年以来证券市场的发展史已经强有力地证明了他们的观点。中国在经济转型的过程中 ,也适时地建立和发展了有中国特色的证券市场。中国的证券市场是一个典型的新兴证券市场 ,其具备所有新兴市场的两个基本特征 :第一 ,存在着严重的市场结构非均衡性缺陷 ,表现为一种非常经典的非有效市场的本质特征。第二 ,只有高速扩容的内在需…     

关于新兴证券市场开放风险研究的文献综述

亚洲金融危机以后,新兴证券市场的开放风险受到了国际社会的广泛关注。本文主要对国外关于证券市场开放风险及其可能引起金融危机的理论与实践研究进行回顾与总结。笔者认为．在证券市场开放成为国家金融自由化必然选择的背景下,深入研究证券市场的开放风险,吸取他国开放的实践经验,有利于达到优化本国证券市场开放政策的目的。     

中国证券市场国际化的现实思考与路径选择

通过对中国证券市场国际化的发展现状和存在的问题进行分析，提出在中国证券市场超走向国际化已经成为必然的情况下，只能坚持“循序渐进、稳步开放”的发展战略，走“中国资本市场渐进式国际化”的道路，逐步推进中国资本市场的国际化进程。     

哈萨克斯坦与我国证券市场的比较分析

作为中亚最大的新兴市场经济体,哈萨克斯坦近年来经济和社会发展速度受到了全世界的瞩目。特别是2006年阿拉木图区域金融中心正式成立,标志着哈国证券市场正逐步开放和融入世界金融市场。哈萨克斯坦与我国同为转型中的发展中国家,其证券市场的发展对我国有着重要的借鉴作用。文章首先介绍了哈萨克斯坦证券市场的发展状况,进而分析中哈两国在证券交易品种、投资者结构、股票市场及公司债券市场等方面的不同特色,并对两国证券市场发展中的差异和所存在的不足进行初步评价,以期为我国与中亚区域间金融合作创造条件,促进两国经济的持续繁荣。     

股指期货让中国资本市场更加成熟

伴随着中国经济的成长,中国资本市场正一步步地从新兴走到繁荣,又从繁荣走向成熟。中国期货市场在取得全球第一大商品期货市场的同时,沪深300股指期货又填补了金融期货的空白。后危机时代,在全球化时代,我们面临着一系列错综复杂的国内外经济形势和系统性风险。中国证券市场、期货市场要为中国经济的成功转型保驾护航,成为一个高效、有序、规范、开放的资产配置市场和风险管理市场。     

基于金砖国家数据的证券市场开放对资本成本影响的实证分析

本文运用金砖国家的数据,考察了证券市场开放对金融市场风险的影响,间接地考察了证券市场开放对资本成本的影响.实证结果显示,长期来看,证券市场的开放会降低金融市场的波动率,从而降低资本成本.短期来看,证券市场的开放会增加金融市场的波动率,但巴西的成功经验值得中国借鉴.本文从资本成本、资本积累的角度为金融开放促进经济增长提供了部分的实证证据.     

我国证券市场开放中的短期资本流动风险

我国证券市场是一个发展不成熟、不完善的新兴加转轨市场,与国际成熟市场相比,在国际化进程中更容易受到外部金融市场的影响。伴随着资本项目的逐步放开,面对国际游资的冲击,会形成较大的系统风险从而影响整个金融市场体系的稳定。因此,正确认识我国证券市场开放中所面临的短期资本流动风险,如何借鉴其它新兴市场开放的经验模式,采取有效的防范措施和加强对短期资本流动的监管显得尤为重要。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.