Simple Banking: Profitability and the Yield Curve

How does bank profitability vary with interest rates? We present a model of a monopolistically competitive bank subject to repricing frictions and test the model's predictions using a unique panel data set on UK banks. We find evidence that large banks retain a residual exposure to interest rates, even after accounting for hedging activity operating through the trading book. In the long run, both level and slope of the yield curve contribute positively to profitability. In the short run, however, increases in market rates compress interest margins, consistent with the presence of nonnegligible loan pricing frictions.     

Asymmetric information and price competition in small business lending

This paper examines the relationship between bank lending rates and their cost of funds in New Zealand. Our results show that on average mortgage rates respond more quickly to changes in the cost of funds than base business lending rates. We also find an asymmetry in the initial (short-run) response of banks to changes in funding costs; in particular, our results show banks adjust mortgage rates downwards faster than upwards. The speed to which lending rates revert back to their equilibrium relationship with funding costs varies across the lending markets. We find the adjustment speed is faster when mortgage rates are below equilibrium, whereas it is slower when business lending rates are above long-run levels in relation to funding costs. Our analysis suggests that banks prefer the plain-vanilla type of lending such as mortgages in comparison to small business lending consistent with asymmetric information associated with business loans.     

Pricing,operating efficiency,and profitability among large commercial banks

This study uses statistical cost accounting techniques to examine the relationship between bank profitability and two dimensions of operating performance — pricing and operating efficiency. The traditional statistical cost accounting model, which relates a firm's income to its asset and liability mix, is expanded to account for differences in market structure, regional demand and supply conditions, and macroeconomics factors. The study focuses on large (above $500 million in domestic deposits) banks, comparing a sample of relatively profitable banks against a matched group of much less profitable banks over the period 1970–1977. After allowing for regional supply and demand factors, the high and low-profit banks are estimated to earn equal market rates of return on individual assets and liabilities. There is virtually no evidence that differential prices are an important discriminator between the two bank groups. Some evidence is found that the high-earnings banks experience lower operating costs on some liabilities, but the opposite is true with respect to selected asset items. After taxes are taken into account, however, any such cost differentials virtually disappear. Overall, there is no compelling evidence that high-profit banks are characterized by greater operating efficiency than their low-earnings counterparts. This finding is consistent with the view that over time, and especially among relatively large banks, information flows and competitive pressures act to reduce operating efficiency differences that may appear in the short run.     

Access policy and money market segmentation

Deviations between interest rates paid in the Swiss franc unsecured money market and the respective Libor rate are analysed for a period spanning the financial crisis. First, banks that have access to sources of secured central bank and interbank funding pay less than other banks. Second, foreign banks (not chartered in Switzerland) pay more than domestic banks. Third, both lines of segmentation are economically relevant but limited due to open access to sources of secured funding. Thus, access policy matters for monetary policy implementation and financial stability.     

Do negative interest rates affect bank risk-taking?

We offer early evidence on the impact of negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on banks’ risk-taking. Our primary result shows banks in NIRP-adopter countries reduce holdings of risky assets by around 10 percentage points following implementation of NIRP in comparison to banks in non-adopter countries. We augment this result by identifying NIRP’s impact on other aspects of banks’ risk-taking behaviour; NIRP is associated with reductions in banks’ loan growth and average loan price (by 3.7 percentage points and 59 basis points) and a rebalancing of asset portfolios towards safer assets. Secondly, we find the NIRP-effect is heterogeneous; post-NIRP risk-taking increases at strongly capitalised banks and at banks operating in less competitive markets that exploit market power to insulate net interest margins and profitability. Our robust empirical evidence supports the “de-leverage” hypothesis which suggests that banks acquire safer, liquid assets to bolster their capital positions rather than searching for value by acquiring riskier assets. We base our evidence on a sample of 2,584 banks from 33 OECD countries across 2012 to 2016, and from models that employ a difference-in-differences framework.     

The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the activity of Italian banks

We examine the implications of the sovereign debt tensions on the Italian credit market by estimating the effect of the 10-year BTP-Bund spread on a wide array of bank interest rates, categories of loans and income statement variables. We exploit the heterogeneity between large and small intermediaries to assess to what extent the transmission of sovereign risk differed in relation with different banks’ balance-sheet characteristics and business strategies. Regarding the cost of funding, we find that changes in the BTP-Bund spread have a sizeable effect on the interest rates on term deposits and newly issued bonds but virtually no effect on overnight deposits. Furthermore, the sovereign spread significantly affects the cost of credit for firms and households and exerts a negative effect on loan growth. All these results are magnified when considering alone the five largest banks, which are typically less capitalized, have a larger funding gap and incidence of bad loans and rely more on non-traditional banking activities. Sovereign tensions also affect the main items of banks’ income statement.     

Banks' Advantage in Hedging Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market

Banks have a unique ability to hedge against market‐wide liquidity shocks. Deposit inflows provide funding for loan demand shocks that follow declines in market liquidity. Consequently, banks can insure firms against systematic declines in liquidity at lower cost than other institutions. We provide evidence that when liquidity dries up and commercial paper spreads widen, banks experience funding inflows. These flows allow banks to meet loan demand from borrowers drawing funds from commercial paper backup lines without running down their holdings of liquid assets. We also provide evidence that implicit government support for banks during crises explains these funding flows.     

Harming Depositors and Helping Borrowers: The Disparate Impact of Bank Consolidation

A model of multimarket spatial competition is developed wheresmall, single-market banks compete with large, multimarket banks(LMBs) for retail loans and deposits. Consistent with empiricalevidence, LMBs are assumed to set retail interest rates uniformlyacross markets, have different operating costs, and have accessto wholesale funding. If LMBs have significant funding advantagesthat offset potential loan operating cost disadvantages, thenmarket-extension mergers by LMBs promote loan competition, especiallyin concentrated markets. However, such mergers reduce retaildeposit competition, especially in less concentrated markets.Prior empirical research and our own analysis of retail depositrates support the model's predictions.     

Monetary Equilibrium and the Cost of Banking Activity

We investigate the effects of banks' operating costs on allocations and welfare in a low interest rate environment. We introduce an explicit production function for banks in a microfounded model where banks employ labor resources, hired on a competitive market, to run their operations. In equilibrium, this generates a spread between interest rates on loans and deposits, which reflects the underlying monetary policy and the efficiency of financial intermediation. In a deflation or low-inflation environment, equilibrium deposits yield zero returns. Hence, banks soak up labor resources to offer deposits that do not outperform idle balances, thus reducing aggregate efficiency.     

Loan pricing under Basel capital requirements

We analyze the loan pricing implications of the reform of bank capital regulation known as Basel II. We consider a perfectly competitive market for business loans where, as in the model underlying the internal ratings based (IRB) approach of Basel II, a single risk factor explains the correlation in defaults across firms. Our loan pricing equation implies that low risk firms will achieve reductions in their loan rates by borrowing from banks adopting the IRB approach, while high risk firms will avoid increases in their loan rates by borrowing from banks that adopt the less risk-sensitive standardized approach of Basel II. We also show that only a very high social cost of bank failure might justify the proposed IRB capital charges, partly because the net interest income from performing loans is not counted as a buffer against credit losses. A net interest income correction for IRB capital requirements is proposed.     

Policy uncertainty and bank’s funding costs: The effects of the financial crisis,Covid-19 pandemic,and market discipline

This paper examines the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on bank funding costs using the 2001–2021 data of US banks. We document consistent evidence of a negative relationship between EPU and bank funding costs, implying lower bank funding costs during a time of high EPU, consistent with the hypothesis that economic agents tend to reallocate their assets into safer investments, such as bank deposits during high uncertainty. Large banks are likely to benefit most during high EPU when experiencing lower costs of funds compared with other banks, suggesting the “too-big-to-fail” perception of depositors. Cross-sectional analysis indicates that depositors require safer banks to pay lower rates, indicating the existence of market discipline. The cost-decreasing effects of policy uncertainty are less pronounced during the global financial crisis than the Covid-19 crisis.     

Ownership,evergreening and crisis: an analysis of bank–firm relationships in India

Employing data on publicly listed firms for 1995–2012, the article examines the behaviour of bank lending and interest cost and how it evolved during the crisis. The evidence suggests that high-Non-performing Loans (NPL) main banks raised their lending and lowered lending rates during the crisis, especially to risky, low-profit firms, indicative of a flight from quality. A disaggregation of the possible reasons for the flight from quality provides evidence in favour of short-termism behaviour by banks. The analysis also provides evidence in support of tunnelling by risky firms, which became amplified during the crisis. The net effect of these developments was a perceptible reduction in overall employment.     

Capital Regulation and Competition as a Moderator for Banking Stability

Capital regulation forces banks to fund a substantial amount of their investments with equity. This creates a buffer against losses but also increases the cost of funding. If higher funding costs translate into higher loan interest rates, the bank's assets are also likely to become more risky, which may destabilize the lending bank. This paper argues that the level of competition in the banking sector can determine whether the buffer or cost effect prevails. The endogenous level of competition may be crucial in determining the efficiency of capital regulation in undercapitalized banking sectors, with excess capacities and correlated risks.     

How do global banks scramble for liquidity? Evidence from the asset-backed commercial paper freeze of 2007

We investigate how banks scrambled for liquidity following the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market freeze of August 2007 and its implications for corporate borrowing. Commercial banks in the United States raised dollar deposits and took advances from Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), while foreign banks had limited access to such alternative dollar funding. Relative to before the ABCP freeze and relative to their non-dollar lending, foreign banks with ABCP exposure charged higher interest rates to corporations for dollar-denominated syndicated loans. The results point to a funding risk manifesting as currency shortages for banks engaged in maturity transformation in foreign countries.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy in Turkey

This article investigates the bank-specific characteristics of risk-taking behavior of the Turkish banking sector as well as the existence of risk-taking channel of monetary policy in Turkey. Using bank-level quarterly data over the period 2002–2012 a dynamic panel model is estimated. We find evidence that low short-term interest rates reduce the risk of outstanding loans; however short-term interest rates below a theoretical benchmark increase risk-taking of banks. This result holds for macroeconomic controls and external factors as well. Furthermore, in terms of bank-specific characteristics, our analysis suggests that large, liquid, and well-capitalized banks are less prone to risk-taking.     

Keep the faith in banking: New evidence for the effects of negative interest rates based on the case of Finnish cooperative banks

This paper analyses the profitability of Finnish cooperative banks during the period of negative nominal interest rates. Contrary to expectations, the continuous decline in money market interest rates between 2009 and 2014, and the following negative rate era, did not have adverse effects on the profitability of banks at the beginning of negative interest rate period. Based on especially using a risk-adjusted measure for bank profitability, these results contrast with previous findings. In our findings, the increasing wholesale funding (WSF) ratio seems to be an important factor. However, after 2017 the banks have not been able to improve especially their risk-adjusted profitability so strongly anymore, because the WSF and the development of other than net interest margin returns have been in negative connection to it. In addition, the unconventional monetary policy actions seem not to improve profitability in the most recent observations of our data. These results raise serious concerns for the future of bank profitability during the prolonged period of negative interest rates.     

Foreign bank penetration and the lending channel in emerging economies: Evidence from bank-level panel data

This paper examines the main implications of recently increasing foreign bank penetration on bank lending as a channel of monetary policy transmission in emerging economies. Using a dynamic panel model of loan growth, we investigate the loan granting behavior of 1273 banks in the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe during the period from 1996 to 2003. Applying the pooled OLS, system GMM, and panel VAR estimators, we find consistent evidence that foreign banks are less responsive to monetary shocks in host countries, as they adjust their outstanding loan portfolios and interest rates to a lesser extent than domestic private banks, independent of their liquidity, capitalization, size, efficiency, and credit risk, and although there exists a bank lending channel in the emerging economies, it is declining in strength due to the increased level of foreign bank penetration. We also explore possible driving factors for the different responses of foreign and domestic banks to monetary policy shocks by investigating foreign banks’ different behavior during banking crises and tranquil periods, the effects of mode of entry to host countries, the home-country effects, and the response of foreign banks from OECD countries vs. all foreign countries including non-OECD countries. We suggest the access of foreign banks to funding from parent banks through internal capital markets as the most convincing explanation.     

Brazilian retail banking and the 2008 financial crisis: Were the government-controlled banks that important?

We revisit the interest rate pass-through effect using weekly retail banking data from May 2006 to March 2010. Our choice of data avoids caveats of previous studies concerning excessive data aggregation and the estimation of how fast changes in benchmark interest rates impact those charged on short-term loans in Brazil. Our analysis focuses on four large retail banks – two of them privately owned and run, two of them government-controlled – before and after September 2008. They account for 60% of the total credit supplied by retail banks. Results indicate that government control over two of the largest banks, supposedly an asset for crisis management, may have had higher welfare costs than assumed. We find no evidence of asymmetry in adjustments of retail rates charged by private and government-controlled banks.     

The Relaxation of Entry Barriers in the Banking Industry: An Empirical Investigation

Until recently, state laws restricted entry into local banking markets in many states by limiting both branching and multibank holding company (MBHC) operations. To the extent that these laws impeded entry into local banking markets, the removal or relaxation of the restrictions should have reduced barriers to entry, leading to more competitive price levels in the affected markets. This paper tests for such effects by examining the changes in deposit interest rates offered by banks operating in markets affected by liberalization of state banking law relative to the changes in deposit interest rates offered during the same time period by banks operating in markets not affected by such liberalization. We find evidence that liberalization of state laws restricting intrastate MBHC operations, interstate branches, and interstate MBHC operations caused deposit interest rates to become more competitive. We, however, find no evidence of such effects associated with the removal of restrictions on intrastate branching.     

Do more competitive banks have less market power? The evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Studies that have explored the competitive behaviour of banks frequently arrive at divergent conclusions because they use different measures of competition. This study first discusses these various measures of competition and their divergence from a theoretical perspective and then employs them to measure the competitiveness of Central and Eastern European banks and to investigate whether more competitive banks really have less market power. We find that these banks increase their market power when there is low banking concentration and do not necessarily become less competitive. Moreover, a more concentrated banking market does not enhance the market power of banks and does not make them less competitive, and more competitive banks do not necessarily have less market power. This latter outcome ensues because revenue and production reactions to cost evolution are either positively related – or completely unrelated – to the competitive behaviour of banks.