Discrimination in Lending: Theory and Evidence

Using a general equilibrium model of credit market discrimination, I find that both taste-based discrimination and statistical discrimination have similar predictions for the intergroup differences in loan terms. The commonly held view has been that if taste-based discrimination exists, loans approved to minority borrowers will have higher expected profitability than those to majorities with comparable credit background. I show that the validity of this profitability view depends crucially on how expected loan profitability is measured. I also show that taste-based discrimination must exist if loans to minority borrowers have higher expected rates of return or lower expected rates of default loss than those to majorities with the same exogenous characteristics observed by lender at the time of loan originations. My analysis suggests that the valid method to test for taste-based discrimination should be reduced-form regressions. Empirically, I fail to find supporting evidence for the existence of taste-based discrimination.     

The role of bankers in the U.S. syndicated loan market

I construct a novel dataset of individual bankers in the U.S. syndicated loan market to analyze the impact of bankers for the largest, most transparent borrowers. Bankers exhibit time-invariant preferences for specific loan characteristics, or styles. In addition, exploiting within-borrower variation in personal relationship strength from banker turnover, I find that stronger relationships lead to significantly lower interest rates. This effect is stronger if borrowers lack a credit rating or issue less frequent and shorter horizon management reports. Relationship loans are associated with fewer bankruptcies and fewer favorable modifications in renegotiations.     

Cultural Affinity and Lending Discrimination: The Impact of Underwriting Errors and Credit Risk Distribution on Applicant Denial Rates

We examine the impact of underwriting errors on marginal loan denial rates when these errors or average creditworthiness differ across racial groups. We find that the noise in evaluating applicant credit risk can have a differential impact on marginal borrowers across racial groups. Consequently, discrimination can go undetected in an examination of relative loan denial rates when it is present. We also show that discrimination can be detected where none exists. Furthermore, we argue that it is likely that the errors a bank makes in assessing applicant credit risk are a consequence of its skill or affinity, which, in turn, is shaped by the underwriting experiences in the bank's market. A resulting implication is that banks that develop affinities in serving different market segments may have substantially different denial rate experiences across racial groups. This observation can shed light on the puzzling result that minority-owned banks tend to perform poorly in studies of lending discrimination. We conclude that underwriting errors call into question the reliability of the fair-lending guidelines used to assess all banks.     

Payday Loan Choices and Consequences

High‐cost consumer credit has proliferated in the past two decades, raising regulatory scrutiny. We match administrative data from a payday lender with nationally representative credit bureau files to examine the choices of payday loan applicants and assess whether payday loans help or harm borrowers. We find consumers apply for payday loans when they have limited access to mainstream credit. In addition, the weakness of payday applicants’ credit histories is severe and longstanding. Based on regression discontinuity estimates, we show that the effects of payday borrowing on credit scores and other measures of financial well‐being are close to zero. We test the robustness of these null effects to many factors, including features of the local market structure.     

The Effects of Banking Mergers on Loan Contracts

This paper studies the effects of banking mergers on individual business borrowers. Using information on individual loan contracts between banks and companies, I analyze the effect of banking consolidation on banks' credit policies. I find that in-market mergers benefit borrowers if these mergers involve the acquisition of banks with small market shares. Interest rates charged by the consolidated banks decrease, but as the local market share of the acquired bank increases, the efficiency effect is offset by market power. Mergers have different distributional effects across borrowers. When banks become larger, they reduce the supply of loans to small borrowers.     

Learning by lending

This paper studies bank learning through repeated interactions with borrowers from a new perspective. To understand learning by lending, we adapt a methodology from labor economics to analyze how loan contract terms evolve as banks acquire new information about borrowers. We construct “proxy” variables for this information using data from borrowers’ out-of-sample, future credit performance. Due to the timing of their construction, banks could not have used these variables directly to price loans. We nonetheless find that these proxies increasingly predict loan prices as relationships progress, even after controlling for possible omitted variable bias. Our methodology provides strong evidence that: (a) bank learning affects loan prices, and (b) relationship benefits are heterogeneous. In particular, higher quality borrowers face differentially lower spreads as their relationship with lenders develop – and banks learn about their quality – while lower quality borrowers see loan prices increase and their loan amounts fall. We further find suggestive evidence that banks incorporate CEO-specific information into loan prices.     

The Role of Bank Reputation in “Certifying” Future Performance Implications of Borrowers’ Accounting Numbers

We investigate the role played by the reputation of lead arrangers of syndicated loans in mitigating information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. We hypothesize that syndications by more reputable arrangers are indicative of higher borrower quality at loan inception and more rigorous monitoring during the term of the loan. We investigate whether borrowers with more reputable lead arrangers realize superior performance subsequent to loan origination relative to borrowers with less reputable arrangers. We further examine whether certification by high‐reputation lead banks extends to the quality of borrowers’ reported accounting numbers. Controlling for endogenous matching of borrowers and lead banks, we find that higher bank reputation is associated with higher profitability and credit quality in the three years subsequent to loan initiation. We also show that bank reputation is associated with long‐run sustainability of earnings via higher earnings persistence, and debt contracting value of accounting via a stronger connection between pre‐loan profitability and future credit quality. We further document that the enhanced earnings sustainability associated with higher reputation lead banks reflects both superior fundamentals and accruals more closely linked with future cash flows.     

The effect of information sharing between lenders on access to credit,cost of credit,and loan performance – Evidence from a credit registry introduction

Using a rich dataset from a commercial bank in Albania, we utilize the introduction of a public credit registry by the Albanian central bank in January 2008 as a natural experiment to analyze the effect of information sharing between lenders on (1) access to credit, (2) cost of credit, and (3) loan performance. Our results suggest that information sharing by means of a credit registry does not affect access to or cost of credit, but improves loan performance. Specifically, loans granted after the introduction of the credit registry are 3% points less likely of turning problematic, representing a 35% reduction of the overall sample average arrear probability. We further find that the effect is more pronounced for repeat borrowers and in areas, where competition is weak. This indicates that information sharing among lenders improves loan performance mainly by disciplining borrowers to repay in their concern about future access to credit.     

Additional Credit for Liquidity-Constrained Individuals: High-Interest Consumer Credit in Korea

We find that the delinquency probability on formal sector debts of private loan borrowers in Korea increases from 2.4% to 20% in the first year after the borrowing and to 32% in the second year. This increase happens despite private loan borrowers trying to rebuild their financial health by reducing formal sector debts, credit card cash service balances, and credit card purchases during the post-borrowing period. This limits the possibility of moral hazard driving the results. Private loan amounts are positively associated with the delinquency probability after controlling other commonly used variables, suggesting that they contain additional information on the worsening financial situation of an individual.     

Auditor size, tenure, and bank loan pricing

Using a large sample of U.S. bank loan data from 1996 to 2008, we investigate the relation between two auditor characteristics, namely, auditor size and tenure, and loan interest rates. Our results show the following: First, we find that the loan interest rate is significantly lower for borrowers with prestigious Big 4 auditors than for borrowers with non-Big 4 auditors. Second, we find that auditor tenure is negatively associated with the loan interest rate, suggesting that a long client–auditor relationship lowers the loan borrowing cost. Third, we find that the negative association between auditor size and loan rate is more pronounced for transaction-based term loans than for relationship-based revolving loans. Fourth, our sub-period tests show that our results are driven by the post-Sarbanes–Oxley Act period. Our study provides direct evidence that auditor size and tenure are incremental credit risk-reducing factors in the bank loan market.     

Economic value in tranching of syndicated loans

This paper presents a theory to explain the economic value of tranching and provides empirical evidence to support the theoretical implications. I show that riskier firms are more likely to take loans with multiple tranches. Therefore, the average credit spread on a syndicated loan with multiple tranches is higher than that on a non-tranched loan. However, after accounting for the risk characteristics of a tranched loan, I show that borrowings that are a part of tranched loans have lower credit spreads than otherwise identical non-tranched loans. I also show that the benefits of tranching accrue primarily to riskier borrowers.     

How do lending relationships affect access to credit and loan conditions in microlending?

A key problem facing microlenders is the high level of information asymmetry between them and their borrowers. In this paper, we analyze whether the relationship intensity between microlenders and borrowers helps to overcome existing information asymmetries and how this impacts access to credit and loan contract terms. Using a rich loan-level data set provided by a microlender in Mozambique for the years 2000-2006, we find that access to credit improves and that the loan approval process takes less time when relationships become more intense. Borrowers further profit from a more intense relationship through lower guarantee requirements. All effects are more pronounced the more opaque the borrowers are. These results suggest that longer lending relationships indeed help to reduce information asymmetries and that this is beneficial for microborrowers.     

The Impact of Durable Relationship with Banks when Crisis Hits

Firms develop relationships with their banks in order to ensure access to financing when credit conditions deteriorate in time of crisis. I investigate the effect of bank-firm relationships in Turkey where 90 percent of a firm’s financial debt is obtained through bank loans. I find that adjusted for loan terms and firm-fixed effects, borrowers with past relationships with incumbent banks have lower risk-adjusted financing costs. Furthermore, lower financing costs associated with relationship are even more pronounced during the 2008–2009 financial crisis.     

Sovereign stress and SMEs’ access to finance: Evidence from the ECB's SAFE survey

We study the effect of sovereign stress on SMEs’ capital structure using restricted-access data from the European Central Bank. We find that during the sovereign debt crisis, and controlling for borrowers’ quality, firms in stressed countries became more likely to be denied credit, to be credit rationed, and to face higher loan rates. Less creditworthy firms were not more likely to become credit constrained, suggesting no flight to quality in lending. We also find that in order to make up for the decline in bank credit firms in stressed countries began relying considerably more on retained earnings and government subsidies.     

Structure in the Italian overnight loan market

We analyze the Italian interbank loan market from 1999 until 2010. The analysis of net trade flows shows a high imbalance caused by a few large net borrowers in the market. The trading volume shows a significant drop starting in 2007, which accelerates with the Lehman default in late 2008. The interbank loan network is very dense. Hence, we try to identify strong links by looking for preferential lending relationships expressed by discounts in the loan rate. Furthermore, we estimate the dynamics of credit spreads for each bank and find that economically significant spreads for the overnight market developed only in 2010. The analysis of preferential loan relationships reveals that in the pre-Lehman era large net borrowers used to borrow at a slight discount. In the post-Lehman era borrowers with large net exposures paid more than the average market rate, which shows that the risk evaluation of market participants has changed considerably.     

Do Tighter Loan Covenants Signal Improved Future Corporate Results? The Case of Performance Pricing Covenants

Covenants in corporate bonds and loan agreements mitigate agency conflicts between borrowers and lenders and may provide a signal of borrower quality to help resolve information asymmetry. Performance pricing covenants in bank loans specify automatic adjustments to loan spreads based on borrowers’ subsequent performance. Our covenant signaling framework views interest‐decreasing performance pricing as a tight covenant associated with borrowers’ private information on improved future performance accompanied by reduced credit risk. This positive signal is associated with larger positive loan announcement returns and greater improvements in future borrower performance. Further, in addition to signaling value, we find that the spread impact of this class of covenant also depends on its option value and reduction in transaction costs.     

Information verifiability, bank organization, bank competition and bank-borrower relationships

This paper investigates whether the benefits of bank-borrower relationships differ depending on three factors identified in the theoretical literature: verifiability of information, bank size and complexity, and bank competition. We extend the current literature by analyzing how relationship lending affects loan contract terms and credit availability in an empirical model that simultaneously accounts for all three of these factors. Based on Japanese survey data we find evidence that the benefits from stronger bank-borrower relationships in terms of credit availability are limited to smaller banks. However, when the benefits are measured as improved credit terms, we find little additional benefit, and in some cases increased cost, from stronger relationships for opaque borrowers and for borrowers who get funding from small banks. These latter findings suggest the possibility that relationship borrowers may suffer from capture effects.     

Securitization and distressed loan renegotiation: Evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis

We examine whether securitization impacts renegotiation decisions of loan servicers, focusing on their decision to foreclose a delinquent loan. Conditional on a loan becoming seriously delinquent, we find a significantly lower foreclosure rate associated with bank-held loans when compared to similar securitized loans: across various specifications and origination vintages, the foreclosure rate of delinquent bank-held loans is 3% to 7% lower in absolute terms (13% to 32% in relative terms). There is a substantial heterogeneity in these effects with large effects among borrowers with better credit quality and small effects among lower quality borrowers. A quasi-experiment that exploits a plausibly exogenous variation in securitization status of a delinquent loan confirms these results.     

Beyond the Transaction: Banks and Mortgage Default of Low‐Income Homebuyers

We evaluate the effects of the lending institution and soft information on mortgage loan performance for low‐income homebuyers. We find that even after controlling for the propensity of a borrower to get a loan from a local bank based on observable characteristics, those who receive a loan from a local bank branch are significantly less likely to become delinquent or default than other bank or nonbank borrowers, consistent with an unobserved information effect. These effects are most pronounced for loans originated to borrowers with marginal credit, where soft information may have a stronger effect. These findings support previous research on information‐driven lending, and provide additional explanation for observed differences in mortgage loan performance between bank and nonbank lenders.     

Bank loan announcements and borrower stock returns before and during the recent financial crisis

The impact of U.S. bank loan announcements on the stock prices of the corporate borrowers has been decreasing during the two last decades with estimated two-day cumulative abnormal returns slipping from almost 200 basis points in the beginning of the 1980s to close to zero by the turn of the Century. We estimate excess returns before and after the onset of the most recent financial crisis. We find that while prior to August 2007 returns were indeed close to zero, afterwards returns jump back up to around 200 basis points. We surmise that in a booming credit market the certification of corporate borrowers by banks started to play a lesser role, while during the crisis the banks’ role was revitalized. Consistent with this interpretation we find that after August 2007 excess returns increase especially for loans with a longer maturity, and for smaller, levered, less profitable or lowly rated firms.