江苏经济增长因素分析及政策建议

全要素生产率方法是研究经济增长质量的重要方法。文章对江苏20年来的经济增长因素进行了实证研究,将促进江苏经济发展的全要素生产率因素分解为：产业结构的调整、所有制的变迁以及金融深化,并根据柯布—道格拉斯生产函数建立计量分析模型。回归结果表明：传统要素投入的增长已经不再是江苏经济增长的主要驱动力,取而代之的是产业结构的不断调整以及非公有制经济的迅速崛起,而金融深化对现阶段的经济增长并未产生重要影响。文章最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

Productivity growth, technological progress, and efficiency change in chinese agriculture after rural economic reforms: A DEA approach

This study applies a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to analyze total factor productivity, technology, and efficiency changes in Chinese agricultural production from 1984 to 1993. Twenty-nine provinces in China were classified into advanced-technology and low-technology categories. The Malmquist (1953) productivity measures were decomposed into two components: technical change index and efficiency change index. The results show that total factor productivity has risen in most provinces for both technology categories during the 1984–1993 period. Technical progress was mostly attributed to Chinese agricultural productivity growth after the rural economic reforms. The deterioration in technical efficiency in many provinces indicates China has great potential to increase productivity through improved technical efficiency. Enhancing rural education and research and development (R&D) in agriculture may also help farmers to improve technical efficiency and productivity in agricultural production.     

Trade, technology spillovers, and food production in China

Trade, Technology Spillovers, and Food Production in China. — This paper studies technology spillovers between China and other countries, international trade in inputs being the prime carrier of knowledge in agricultural production. Human capital characteristics and structural characteristics of the agricultural production sys-tems determine the local usability of foreign knowledge for Chinese farmers. The authors utilize a multi-region applied general equilibrium model to analyze Chinese opportunities to benefit from foreign technology improvements in grain production. It is shown that possible negative welfare effects of unilateral trade liberalization of China against North American imports of agricultural inputs may be more than compensated by productivity gains if technology spillovers are included.     

Agricultural labor productivity in the Lower South, 1720-1800

The primary factor determining the rate of economic growth in 18th-century British America was the pace of improvement in agricultural productivity. This paper examines agricultural productivity advance in the Lower South between 1720 and 1800. We extend and refine previous measures based on export performance, and offer new productivity measures based on the real value of slave labor, and total agricultural production in the region. Despite differences in their short-term behavior, all of the indices show that long-run productivity improvements were modest at best, and may have been negative. Surprisingly, taking account of production for domestic consumption yields the most favorable long-term performance.     

欠发达地区经济增长全要素生产率的测算与分析——以三明市为例

运用索洛模型对三明市经济增长的全要素生产率进行测算和分析,结果表明,改革开放以来,三明市的经济增长主要表现为资本驱动的外延式增长,新世纪以来这种趋势更明显,2000-2007年期间技术进步对经济增长的贡献度是负值。因此,本文提出,三明市应当在注重加大投入的同时,也应当注意提高投入的效益,注重科技对经济的拉动作用,尤其对于拉动全市经济发展的那些主导产业,加大科技创新投入,提高这些产业的生产率,加强这些产业的产业竞争力,实现全市经济的健康、可持续发展。     

国家现代农业产业园建设与共同富裕

促进农村共同富裕是当前扎实推动共同富裕最艰巨最繁重的任务,2017年以来正式启动的国家现代农业产业园建设具有强农富农使命,但其对地区共同富裕的影响尚不明确。文章以“总体富裕”和“成果共享”两个维度构建地区共同富裕指标体系,使用2015—2020年中国地级市面板数据,利用国家现代农业产业园建设作为准自然实验,从农业生产效率和劳动力转移就业角度研究了国家现代农业产业园建设对农村共同富裕的影响。研究发现,国家现代农业产业园建设有助于推进地区共同富裕的实现,尤其是中西部地区和处于经济发展中间水平地区。同时,国家现代农业产业园建设的“成果共享”效应大于“总体富裕”效应。进一步地,在机制检验方面,文章发现,国家现代农业产业园建设提高了地区农业全要素生产率,促进了农民群体就业从第一产业向第三产业转移,提升了弱势群体收入,从而促进了发展包容性,切实推进了共同富裕。因此,文章提出：加快国家现代农业产业园总量扩容,扩大覆盖面,严格考核,切实发挥其包容性发展效应;加快形成省市区联动的现代农业产业园建设体系,为农村共同富裕注入持续动力;现代农业产业园建设应注重农业的高质量发展和外延式发展;各地区应因地制宜依托...     

Mises's dynamics of interventionism: Lessons from Indian agriculture

Despite trade liberalization, industrial delicensing, and deregulation in other sectors of the Indian economy since 1991, the agricultural sector is stifled by arbitrary, complex, and ever-increasing regulation in both input and product markets. This article resolves this puzzle of the Indian economy and, using Mises's theory of interventionism, explains the growth of regulation and subsidies in Indian agriculture. I argue that each intervention in agriculture created distortions in the market, necessitating the subsequent intervention in agricultural inputs and/or outputs. Land ceiling policies led to a large number of farmers with small and marginal landholdings. Attempts to increase agricultural productivity and income on small holdings led to interventions, and consequent distortions, in factor markets for seeds, fertilizer, electricity, water, credit, insurance, as well as in output markets in the form of minimum support prices. Indian agriculture policy serves as a cautionary tale of interventionism and needs systematic and comprehensive reforms.     

广西农业生产要素错配测度及差异性研究

全要素生产率是经济持续增长的源泉，而全要素生产率的提升不仅取决于技术进步，更依赖于资源的有效配置。基于广西壮族自治区2005—2020年各地级市面板数据，借鉴HK经典要素错配理论，构建农业生产要素错配模型，分别测算出广西“两区一带”及14个地级市农业资本、劳动力和土地资源错配的相对扭曲系数。结果表明：广西整体农业资源错配水平偏高，且不同经济区农业生产要素错配情况不尽相同；三类农业生产要素错配中农业资本要素错配地区间差异最大；观测期内广西农业生产要素错配有不同程度改善，但总体上波动趋势明显；不同地级市间农业生产要素呈现出不同偏向的错配。深化供给侧结构性改革，降低农业资源错配程度，为广西农业经济增长提供新动能，助推广西农业高质量发展。     

The Impact of Economic Reform on Productivity Growth in Chinese Industry: A Case of Xiamen Special Economic Zone

China's industrial and trade reforms were expected to stimulate growth in output and welfare by increasing the capacity of industry to absorb surplus factors of production, and by utilizing labour, capital, energy and materials more efficiently. The impact of the special economic zone reform policies on productivity and growth is assessed by studies of China's overall industrial sector performance and case studies in Xiamen and Shanghai Beijing, which is not subject to special policy initiatives, is used as a control. Although there were data limitations, several conclusions may be drawn. An increase in total factor productivity was found to have occurred in Xiamen during the reform period, but the creation of the special economic zone does not appear to have had a significant impact on productivity. Productivity performance in Beijing's state-owned industry was considerably poorer than that of total Xiamen industry, including state, collective and firms jointly owned with foreign investors, and was also lower than the productivity performance of Xiamen's state sector. The productivity performance of Xiamen's joint ventures and collectively owned firms was, however, considerably superior to the state sectors in both cities. Due to data constraints, the analysis of productivity in Shanghai was for a shorter period. Most of Shanghai's state-owned industry did better than the state-owned sector in Beijing but did not perform as well as the non-State sector in Xiamen over this period. Factor productivity in Shanghai industry was stagnant, Beijing's industrial productivity generally declined, but Xiamen's productivity improved considerably over the decade. One of the major strengths of this study is its access to new and more accurate disaggregated price indices to deflate capital investments on an industry by industry basis. Hence, the availability of the new capital stock deflator series should improve the total factor productivity estimates considerably.     

Quality change and productivity improvement in the Japanese economy

This paper provides a new view of the rate of productivity growth in Japan, and the contribution of productivity improvements to the growth of the Japanese economy. Many studies point to the high rates of labour and total factor productivity growth in Japan during the early post-War period as the principle cause of the rise of the Japanese economy. The present study, however, emphasises the role of quality change in Japan’s development. In order to do this, quality-constant measures of both inputs and outputs are derived using time series hedonic regression techniques. These quality-constant series are then used to revise the traditional partial and total factor productivity measures. We demonstrate that all of the traditional measures of productivity are biased insofar as their construction does not fully account for quality change. The essential message is that, in Japan, quality change accounts for significant parts of the true growth in both inputs and outputs, leading to underestimation of their growth rates in the official statistics. However, given the nature of the ratios employed in measuring productivity, the implications for factor productivity growth are more complex.     

我国农业经济发展水平及其影响因素实证研究

农业经济发展与农业生产自然制约条件、农业人力资本投入、农业生产资本投入、农业生产技术、农业经济的市场作用、农业生产条件制约因素等密切相关.本文选取反映农业经济增长的13个指标,对其1980-2012年的时间序列运用主成分回归分析与其误差修正模型,研究我国农业经济发展全要素生产率及影响我国农业长期经济发展与短期经济发展的因素.结果表明,影响我国农业长期与短期经济发展的主要因素按影响力大小依次为农业生产条件、市场作用、自然制约条件、农业生产资本、农业生产技术、人力资源.     

新疆农业投资绩效的实证分析

改革开放以来,新疆农业与农村经济取得了巨大的成就,农业生产条件明显改善,农业生产力得到长足发展,农业连续25年获得丰收,农民收入稳步提高。但新疆地广人稀,农业发展潜力非常大,因此,研究新疆农业投入的实际效果有着重大意义。     

1993-2005年广东农业生产率的变动与分解——基于Malmquist生产率指数的实证分析

本文使用非参数的Malmquist生产率指数方法,对广东省1993—2005年间农业全要素生产率（TFP）的变动趋势进行了考察,并把TFP的增长构成分解为技术进步、纯技术效率变化、规模效率变化三个部分。结果表明：13年间广东全省农业TFP的增长主要是由技术进步推动的,纯技术效率和规模效率的下降对TFP的增长造成了不利影响;农业TFP增长的地区水平差异显著,而且增长的结构也有所不同。最后是相应的政策建议。     

广东农业科技创新效率研究 ——基于超效率DEA模型和M almquist指数法

基于2010—2016年广东省各市的面板数据,运用超效率DEA模型和Malmquist指数法对广东农业科技创新效率和全要素生产率进行了实证分析。结果表明:广东省农业科技创新水平较高,但区域发展不平衡问题突出,粤北与珠三角、粤西、粤东有较大差距;广东全要素生产率指数平均值大于1,农业科技创新效率呈上升趋势,技术进步是全要素生产率增长的动力所在。因此,农业科技创新效率的提高关键在于提升农业技术水平,同时还需注意技术效率,科学调整农业科技资源配置,提升农业科技资源经营和管理水平。     

Nonfarm Employment and Poverty Alleviation of Rural Farm Households in Honduras

This paper analyzes the role of nonfarm income of rural farm households in Honduras. It uses the national income and expenditure survey from 1993 to 1994. Income from nonfarm wage and self-employment represents 16–25% of farm household income and is especially important for middle and higher income strata. Nonfarm wage labor is geographically concentrated in small rural towns and in the industrial free zones located in the Northern region, while self-employment is particularly developed in the Southern region. Access to nonfarm wage employment is confined to educated individuals that belong to large households, while female members of wealthier households are mainly involved in self-employment. Food security is strongly enhanced through the engagement in nonfarm activities. Moreover, nonfarm income enables farmers to purchase external inputs for improving yields and labor productivity. Suitable policies to enhance nonfarm employment include education, training, and technical assistance to reduce labor intensity in agricultural production, as well as public investment and credit services to improve access to nonfarm activities.     

中国工业企业的增长动能、配置效率与经济利润

传统宏观经济增长的分解框架仅仅关注微观的技术进步效应和资源配置效应，无法识别要素层面的这两种效应以及两种要素的经济利润。为此，文章借助一个新的基于要素层面的全要素生产率增长分解框架，采用1998-2007年中国工业企业数据，对中国工业企业的增长动能、配置效率以及经济利润进行了分析。研究发现：（1）中国工业企业的生产率增长是其产出增长的主要推动力量，这个结论在不同所有制、不同产业以及不同地区均适用。中国工业企业正逐渐由劳动密集型向资本密集型和技术密集型转移。（2）企业自身技术进步对全要素生产率增长的增进效应贡献最大，企业之间的资源配置效率显著抑制了全要素生产率的提升，从抑制效应大小来看，其抑制作用抵消了企业技术进步的绝大部分。具体到资源配置效率程度大小来看，行业内部企业之间的资本配置效率年均恶化程度至少是劳动配置效率的两倍，而行业之间的资源配置效率对全要素生产率的影响微弱。（3）就要素获取的经济利润份额来看，资本占优，高达3.2%，资本利润是劳动利润的至少四倍，劳动利润的上升极为有限。民营企业、技术密集型企业以及中东部地区企业获取了更大的资本利润，而外资获得了更多的劳动利润，体现了外资进入中国的战略取向。东部获得了更多的利润说明其反哺中西部地区的必要性。     

Regional production networks,service offshoring,and productivity in East Asia

Using the Asian International Input–Output Table (1990, 1995, and 2000), this paper explores regional production networks and offshoring of material and service inputs in East Asia. In doing so, offshoring is measured directly from the Table, which has not been used in previous literature regarding this issue. It turns out that East Asian countries source significant shares of inputs within East Asia. In addition to material offshoring, service offshoring in East Asia has become increasingly common in the era of globalization. We also evaluate the effects of this fast growing offshoring on productivity. Our econometric results demonstrate that offshoring exerts a significant and positive impact on total factor productivity in East Asia. Service offshoring, in particular, performs a more significant role than material offshoring.     

IMPORT LIBERALIZATION AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN INDIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN THE 1990s

Total factor productivity growth in Indian manufacturing decelerated in the 1990s, a decade of major economic reforms in India. Econometric analysis presented in the paper indicates that the lowering of effective protection to industries favorably affected productivity growth. The results suggest that gestation lags in investment projects and slower agricultural growth in the 1990s had an adverse effect on productivity growth. The analysis reveals that underutilization of industrial capacity was an important cause of the productivity slowdown. With corrections for capacity utilization, the estimated productivity growth in the 1990s is found to be about the same as in the 1980s.     

Elasticities and factor weights for agricultural growth accounting: A look at the data for China

We review factor weight assumptions used in four studies of trends in total factor productivity (TFP) in Chinese agriculture, and factor elasticities estimated in 12 Chinese agricultural production function studies. We find that econometric estimates of the output elasticity of land typically exceed the upper bound weight for that factor used in the TFP studies. We illustrate the sensitivity of TFP trends to factor assumptions by showing that adopting average elasticities as factor weights leads to a less negative assessment of TFP performance in the collective period. We suggest directions for further progress in these studies.     

Technological progress and technical efficiency in Chinese industrial growth: A frontier production function approach

We estimate a frontier production function for Chinese industry for the period 1953–1985. Contrary to prior studies based on OLS estimates, we find that Chinese industry has been characterized by a rate of growth of technological progress between 1.8 and 3.6 percent per year. We also find that the capital-saving nature of technological progress has adversely affected Chinese productivity growth because of increases in the capital-labor ratio. The utilization of industrial resources has been quite suboptimal for much of the sample period, with industrial production well off the production frontier. These deviations from efficient resource use reflect well-known political and economic developments that disrupted economic activity. Finally, both technical efficiency and total factor productivity increased appreciably in the period 1978–1985, suggesting that the reforms have had some positive impact on industrial performance.