Stock price reactions to stock dividend announcements: A case from a sluggish economic period

The 2007 financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed resulted in a loss of confidence among investors, and regaining their full trust and confidence has been a challenge for companies. Although economic growth has been volatile throughout the postwar World War II period, recent growth (2008–2015) has been remarkably weaker than in the previous low-growth period (1974–1995). The 2006–2015 period is often characterized by sluggish economic growth. This study investigates stock price reactions to stock dividend announcements, 30 days before and after the announcement dates, of publicly traded companies in the period 2006–2012. We use an event study methodology for 460 events and daily stock price data for companies in the CRSP historical data set. The study shows a significant reaction in stock prices around the event date. On average, stock prices reacted positively to stock dividend announcements. However, compared to previous findings of abnormal returns (5.9%), results from this study show small abnormal returns (about 1.81%) attributable to stock dividend announcements that are cumulative of the announcement day and up to 3-day post-announcement days. Our estimates are even lower than the 2.01% stock price reaction obtained in the 1987–1996 period.     

Trading cost expectations: Evidence from S&P 500 index replacement stock announcements

This paper tests the effect on stock value of an expected change in future trading costs. The capitalized value of a reduction in trading costs is hypothesized to increase the stock value, a trading cost effect. Improved liquidity reduces trading costs. Inclusion as an S&P 500 Index replacement stock is an event hypothesized to increase liquidity. We use 114 observations between January 1, 1983 and October 12, 1989 of stocks added to the Index as replacements for stocks removed. The abnormal return of each stock is regressed against the ratio of the bidask spread to the price of the stock, the change in trading volume of the stock, and the open interest in the Index futures contracts at the close of the month prior to the replacement announcement. We find that the positive abnormal returns for replacement stocks are related to increased daily trading volume after inclusion in the Index. Further, the trading cost effect is proportional to percentage bid-ask spreads prior to inclusion. The trading cost effect increases as trading in derivatives of the Index increases. The volume and stock price changes after replacement are not transitory, indicating an improvement in liquidity. Three alternate hypotheses suggested in prior research to explain the abnormal returns for replacement stocks are tested. Testing each of the three models previously considered: price pressure, inelastic demand curves, and information, we find that none can be accepted with statistical confidence. The abnormal returns of Index replacement stocks are consistent with rational pricing of an anticipated reduction in future transaction costs. This anticipated reduction is capitalized in the value of the stock at the time of the replacement announcement. These results are consistent with a trading cost effect.     

The reaction of security prices to tracking stock announcements

This paper provides some empirical evidence on a relatively new and increasingly prevalent form of equity restructuring called tracking stock. We identify the effects associated with tracking stock announcements by excluding from our sample those announcement events that include other significant news announcements on the event date, such as announcements of acquisitions and earnings. For the 35 announcement events that fit this criteria, we find a mean abnormal return of over 3 percent in the two-day period surrounding the announced proposal to issue a tracking stock, with 30 of the 35 firms in the sample earning positive abnormal returns. The views expressed in this paper are that of the author(s) and do not reflect the views or opinions of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. or any of its affiliates.     

Estimating the Precision of Information on Earnings and Non-earnings Announcement Days,and Its Relation with the Cost of Equity

ABSTRACT

Using daily stock returns, we estimate the precision of information during earnings and non-earnings announcement days, and find that although the precision of information in daily stock returns increases during earnings announcement days, it explains less of the variation in expected returns than the precision of information on non-earnings announcement days. Our findings suggest that the precision of earnings disclosures has a small effect on the cost of equity relative to the precision of information on other days of the year.     

Market effects of private equity placement: Evidence from Chinese equity and bond markets

Research has provided empirical evidence for the stock market reaction toward private placement; however, similar research has not been conducted in terms of the bond market. Using the event study method, we empirically examine the explanatory power of the signaling, free cash flow, and wealth transfer hypotheses based on the reaction of the stock market, bond market, and firm abnormal returns to the private placement announcement. The results show that the stock market has a negative reaction toward private placement, whereas the bond market has a positive reaction. The results also show that the scale of private placement is correlated with the severity of the market reaction. Abnormal returns indicate no significant change both before and after the private placement, and they are unaffected by the scale of private placement. These results are consistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis; however, the market reaction is not attributable to the signaling hypothesis and the free cash flow hypothesis. Extensive research shows that the abnormal returns of private placement change dramatically in non-state-owned enterprises and firms with low credit rating bonds, whereas the bond maturity has no significant impact on the abnormal returns—the wealth transfer effect of private placement is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises and firms with low credit rating bond.     

Executive compensation,method of payment and abnormal returns to bidding firms at takeover announcements

This study investigates the association between method of payment, long-term performance plans, managerial stockholdings and abnormal returns to bidding firms at takeover announcements, using a cross-sectional regression methodology. Previous studies have examined each of these factors separately. The results indicate that firms with long-term performance plans and high managerial stockholdings in cash offers experience significantly higher abnormal returns at the announcement of mergers prior to 1980. The study provides additional evidence in explaining the previous conflicting results (Jensen and Ruback, 1985), examining the stock market reaction of bidding firms at merger announcements.     

Technology transactions,announcement effect,and reversal: Dissecting an anomaly

We examine the short term stock price performance of firms that acquire or sell technology rights. We find significant positive announcement-period abnormal returns to the acquirers and sellers. However, the price increases reverse during the subsequent twenty trading days. These quick fortune reversals cannot be attributed to methodology; they prevail in the late 1970s through the 2000s, in bear and bull stock markets, and in both high and low technology industries. Upon splitting the sample into two subsamples comprised each of stocks with either pre-announcement price run-up or decline; we find that the abnormal return reversal is confined to the latter subsample. Stocks that witness price run-up prior to the announcement do not reverse to original prices but lose the momentum right after the announcement-period. We believe this is caused by the combination effect of the momentum prior to-and the impact of the announcement.     

Impact of Environmental Performance on Firm Value for Sustainable Investment: Evidence from Large US Firms

This research examines the impact of environmental performance on firm value, applying the event study methodology to Newsweek’s ‘Green Rankings’ announcement of 2012 for large US firms. Specifically, it analyzes the impact of the absolute green score and green rank of firms on their performance in the stock market. We found that investors perceive the announcement as positive news, leading to significant positive standardized cumulative abnormal returns (SCARs). After controlling for industry‐ and firm‐specific effects, we observed that firms with repeated green rankings for enhancing environmental performance showed significantly higher SCARs than those with either reduced or unchanged environmental performance. In addition, the environmental impact score measuring environmental damage from a firm's operational activities was found to be the most influential factor in improving the firm's value. Our findings are beneficial to managers in allocating resources to different types of environmental initiative, and provide valuable insight for sustainable environmental investment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Mad Money</Emphasis> stock recommendations: market reaction and performance

We examine the stock recommendations of Jim Cramer televised on CNBC’s Mad Money, and document significant market reactions (i.e., announcement returns and volume) to Cramer’s recommendations, particularly for small capitalization stocks. The following findings indicate that the announcement returns are primarily due to price pressure from uninformed trading as opposed to the recommendations providing new value related information: announcement returns reverse following buy recommendations; bid-ask spreads temporarily decline; and there is no evidence of positive longer-term abnormal returns. One implication, when considered in combination with other works, is that investors should be cautious in following stock recommendations announced in the mass-media.     

Stock price effect of high-yield debt issues

This paper investigates the common stock price reaction at the announcement of the issuance of high-yield straight debt. The two-day announcement period abnormal returns are not different from zero for the 164 bond issues in the sample. No difference is found between announcement period abnormal returns of firms with bonds that default and firms with bonds that do not default. Results from statistical tests indicate that the announcement period abnormal returns are not explained by issuance year, bond-rate class, underwriter, issuance size, takeover activity or prior high-yield debt issuance experience. The findings are not consistent with the models by Miller and Rock (1985), Jensen (1986), Myers and Majluf (1984) and Krasker (1986). However, results indicate that existing stockholders are not harmed or helped by the issuance of the high-yield straight debt.     

Partners of USEPA Climate Leaders: an Event Study on Stock Performance

This research utilized an event study method to assess how the stocks of publicly traded companies responded before and after announcing their partnership with the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Climate Leaders program. Although the stocks exhibited an average non‐significant positive abnormal return of 0.56% on the day of the announcement, the cumulative abnormal returns for the stock prices of the firms for two of the three event windows showed statistically significant negative returns. These results suggest that these firms' public announcements of joining the USEPA Climate Leaders partnership did not have a positive impact on stock performance. While no immediate financial benefit was found in this research, the practices implemented by these firms to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions may still bode well for long‐term corporate earnings and attractiveness to investors. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

On the differential market reaction to dividend initiations

The finance literature documents substantial positive stock price reaction to dividend initiations. Most dividend initiation studies focus on the average positive reaction; however, 40 percent of the firms that initiate dividends experience negative abnormal returns at announcement. This paper focuses on the apparent heterogeneity in the stock price reaction to dividend initiation. I find that the observed negative market reaction reflects the market’s economic assessment of the impact of the event on these firms, and that it is not caused by anticipation or confounding events. The result is also supported by the fact that the market reaction to dividend initiation for these firms is negatively related to initial dividend yield. Both the positive and negative observed reactions are consistent with conventional arguments regarding the information content of dividends, and their role in mitigating agency problems.     

Market impact of international sporting and cultural events

We study market reaction to the announcements of the selected country hosting the Summer and Winter Olympic Games, the World Football Cup, the European Football Cup and World and Specialized Exhibitions. We generalize previous results analyzing a large number and different types of mega-events, evaluate the effects for winning and losing countries, investigate the determinants of the observed market reaction and control for the ex ante probability of a country being a successful bidder. Average abnormal returns measured at the announcement date and around the event are not significantly different from zero. Further, we find no evidence supporting that industries, that a priori were more likely to extract direct benefits from the event, observe positive significant effects. Yet, when we control for anticipation, the stock price reactions around the announcements are significant.     

Asset sales and takeover threats

This research addresses the question of whether the existence of a recent takeover threat affects the market reaction to a subsequent sale of assets. The effect of a prior takeover threat on the stock price reaction to an asset sale is examined from the perspective of both the buying firm and the selling firm. The total gains to the transaction are estimated as a market weighted average of the abnormal returns to the two firms. The results show that when there has not been a recent takeover threat on the selling firm, abnormal returns are significantly positive for the seller, the buyer and in total. However, if the selling firm has faced a takeover threat within the previous year, the abnormal returns upon announcement of an asset sale are insignificant for the seller, negative for the buyer, and negative for a portfolio of the two. Hence, the market has a lower estimate of the overall gains in transactions that follow takeover threats on the selling firm; in fact, these transactions result in a net wealth reduction.     

The Information Content of Guidance and Earnings

I compare the information content of quarterly earnings guidance and quarterly earnings by examining their associations with current and future stock returns when the two signals are bundled at earnings announcements. At the bundled announcement, I find a significantly stronger association between announcement returns and guidance news. From the day after the bundled announcement through the next earnings announcement, both signals generate abnormal return drifts of about 200 basis points. However, the timing of the post-announcement returns differs considerably. For guidance, about 50% of the post-announcement drift occurs at the next earnings announcement. In contrast, for earnings, about 20% of the preceding drift reverses at the next earnings announcement. Investor ignorance of the drift following guidance news coupled with a fixation on post-earnings announcement drift potentially explains this surprising difference in the timing of the post-announcement returns. Overall, this study indicates that bundled quarterly earnings guidance contains more information than quarterly earnings and that investors incorrectly overweight the earnings news and underweight the guidance news during the post-announcement period until the next earnings announcement.     

Acquiring firms' stock returns: Methods of payment,change in leverage,and management ownership

This study examines the effects of the method of payment, change in leverage, and management equity ownership on the acquiring firm's stock returns around the initial announcement date of the merger. Results indicate that stockholders of mergers financed with stocks suffer significant losses. These losses are larger when management ownership is low and smaller in mergers that resulted in acquiring firm leverage decreases. Stockholders of acquiring firms involved in cash mergers gain significant abnormal returns, provided that acquiring firms increase their leverage and that managerial ownership is high. When management equity ownership is low, leverage has no effect on stock returns. When management ownership is high, mergers which resulted in acquiring firm leverage increases have significant positive effects, and those which resulted in acquiring firm leverage decreases have negative but insignificant effects.     

New evidence on shareholder wealth effects in bank mergers during 1980-2000

This paper employs two unique bank event study methodologies to calculate abnormal returns for bidder, target and combined firms. The first methodology is a modified market model that controls for shocks common to the banking industry. The second is an EGARCH (1, 1) model that adjusts for the violated regression assumptions of the traditional market model event study. The results of both methodologies reveal that target shareholders enjoy significantly positive abnormal returns, whereas the bidder shareholders experience significantly negative abnormal returns. Overall, announcements of bank mergers generate positive wealth effects for the combined shareholders. However, the evidence presented in this paper underscores the importance of the choice of models describing stock returns in examining the impact of bank mergers.     

The Impact of Horizontal Mergers on Rivals: Gains to Being Left Outside a Merger

It is commonly perceived that firms do not want to be outsiders to a merger between competitor firms. We instead argue that it is beneficial to be a non-merging rival firm to a large horizontal merger. Using a sample of mergers with expert identification of relevant rivals and the event-study methodology, we find rivals generally experience positive abnormal returns at the merger announcement date. We also find that the stock reaction of rivals to merger events is not sensitive to merger waves; hence, 'future acquisition probability' does not drive the positive abnormal returns of rivals. Further, we find the positive (or non-negative) abnormal returns of rivals to be robust when considering heterogeneity in merger and rival characteristics.     

Requiem for market discipline and the specter of TBTF in Japanese banking

This study examines the reaction of private market participants to the enhancement of the “Too-Big-To-Fail” (TBTF) doctrine in the Japanese banking sector. The event justifying the use of the “TBTF” label occurred on May 17th, 2003, when the Japanese government decided to bailout Resona Holdings, the 5th largest financial group in the country. By using a sample of all Japanese listed banks and the standard event study methodology, we document significant and positive wealth effects in the stock market accruing to large banks and negative (though non-significant) effects accruing to smaller banks. Besides the effect on bank equity values, we also document a significant abnormal volume of trading on days following the bailout announcement date for the largest banks only. We extend our empirical analysis on stock prices and trading volumes by detecting a significant impact in the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market. This last result allows us to quantify, in a probabilistic sense, the effects of TBTF in addition to uncovering the mere presence of such a regulatory policy.     

股价波动与信息公告方式相关性研究

文章首先构造赢家(输家)组合,并根据信息公告方式定义信息类型属于私人信息还是公开信息,然后考察股价波动与信息发布方式的关系。通过实证研究,我们发现:股价波动和信息的公布方式存在紧密的联系,其中赢家组合整体表现出明显的收益反转现象,对私人信息存在过度反应;输家组合虽整体上未表现出明显的惯性现象或者反转现象,但其对私人信息表现出明显的过度反应。