Benefit entitlement and unemployment duration: The role of policy endogeneity

The potential duration of benefits is generally viewed as an important determinant of unemployment duration. This paper evaluates a unique policy change that prolonged entitlement to regular unemployment benefits from 30 weeks to a maximum of 209 weeks for elderly individuals in certain regions of Austria. In the evaluation, we explicitly account for the fact that the program was an endogenous policy response to deteriorating labor market conditions for older workers in certain regions and sectors. The main results are: (i) REBP reduced the transition rate to jobs by 17%; (ii) accounting for endogenous policy adoption is important and quantitatively significant.     

Asymmetric quantile analysis of the Swedish mortgage price discovery process

Based on Swedish banking data we discover robust and significantly positive Asymmetric Price Transmission (APT) effects over all analysed regression quantiles of our mortgage interest rates, with even larger positive APT for the higher percentiles. The analysis was enabled through unique access to a Swedish bank's (SEB) own records of their true borrowing costs. Our central contribution is that there is a higher propensity for the bank to rapidly increase its mortgage interest rates for customers following an increase in its borrowing costs, compared with the propensity for the bank to decrease its customers’ mortgage rates subsequent to a corresponding borrowing cost decrease.     

The return to education and its distribution in urban China: evidence from quantile regression analysis

Based on Chinese Households Income Projects in 2002, this paper discusses the relationship between the return to education and the quantiles of income distribution. The findings in this paper show that the return to education is lower for the higher quantiles, while the estimators also depend on the choice of control variables. The methodology of the quantile regression might be helpful in adjusting the ability bias in the estimation on return to education. The policy implications of the paper highlight the impact of the education expansion in boosting the income growth for those in lower quantiles.     

Long-term unemployment, the invention of 'hysteresis' and the misdiagnosis of structural unemployment in the UK

This paper investigates the empirical basis for the belief thatunemployment makes people less ‘employable’, andthat the existence of a pool of long-term unemployed peopleis therefore in itself a barrier to full employment. Drawingon data for Great Britain from the 1940s to the present day,it shows that this idea has arisen through misinterpretationsof the statistical evidence. The resulting policies, besidesdiverting resources from the demand-side programmes appropriateto the true situation of structural unemployment, appear tohave created a problem of the kind they were intended to address,by encouraging unemployed people to move onto sickness benefits.     

Into thin air: using a quantile regression approach to explore the relationship between R&D and innovation

Applying quantile regression to 760 Finnish firms, we show that the relationship between R&D and firm performance is less straight forward than so far assumed. OLS regression analysis fails to capture the effect of R&D expenditure at different locations on the performance distribution. We reveal that R&D matters, especially on the medium quantiles, while regressing against the upper quantiles of the economic gains from innovation distribution exhibit decreasing returns scale in R&D. Our results confirm that Gaussian statistics fail to capture the most interesting part of the distribution – namely the extreme observations located in the tails.     

Regional and gender differentials in the persistence of unemployment in Europe

The persistence of unemployment increased during the recent great recession in many European countries, although with diversified impacts. We therefore analyse such impacts in four European countries – Italy, Spain, France and the UK – which represent different institutional frameworks and may reflect the so-called continental European and Anglo-Saxon frameworks. We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence using individual-level data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) panel for the period 2007–2013. These data enable us to take into account initial conditions and state dependence in addition to individual and household characteristics. We focus on gender and regional effects, which have a strong impact on the persistence in the state of unemployment. We find that gender gap is significant in Italy and the UK, implying that male workers show a higher probability of remaining unemployed. In Italy, such a pattern is due to the worsening of male workers’ conditions during the crisis, whereas in the UK, male workers show higher unemployment rates than women. Regional effects are significant in all countries analysed and underline a relevant structural factor that should be addressed on policy grounds in Europe. Such effects are greater in Spain and Italy.     

International commodity taxation in the presence of unemployment

In this paper, we evaluate the impact of commodity tax competition on welfare and employment under the destination and origin principles, when the labor market is imperfectly competitive owing to a binding fixed wage. Our main finding is that commodity taxation causes an employment externality whose signs may be opposite under the two principles. While tax competition leads to inefficient tax rates under both principles, we also prove that the origin principle guarantees lower unemployment and higher welfare when the fixed wage is high. Finally, we show that the employment externality still exists in a standard union model of wage determination.     

The Role of Education vis-a-vis Job Experience in Explaining the Transitions to Employment in the Spanish Youth Labour Market

It is well known that young cohorts experience higher unemployment rates than their adult counterparts. However, it is less well known that more educated young cohorts may face higher unemployment rates than less educated ones. This seems to be the evidence in some OECD countries such as Spain and Italy. We use data on the Spanish labour market and estimate a duration model for young unemployed people. University graduates’ lack of job experience may explain this puzzling observation.     

Testing poolability in a system of dynamic regressions with nonspherical disturbances

This study analyzes the testing of cross-equation restrictions within a set of regression equations. Through Monte Carlo experiments we examine the actual size of various asymptotic procedures for testing the poolability hypothesis, i.e., equal slope vectors across individual equations. Regression models with both lagged dependent variable regressors and nonspherical disturbances are considered. In these models we find that the performance in finite samples of classical asymptotic test procedures using critical values from either or ² approximations is often rather poor. However, employing the original test statistics with bootstrapped critical values leads to much more accurate inference in finite samples. In an empirical analysis of panel data on GDP growth and unemployment rates in OECD countries it is shown that classical asymptotic tests and bootstrap procedures may lead to conflicting test outcomes. I am indebted to Peter Boswijk, Jan Kiviet, Peter Vlaar, the associate editor and 2 anonymous referees for their constructive comments. I want to thank Geoffrey Garrett for kindly making available his data.     

最低工资标准的就业效应研究--基于30个省际面板数据的实证分析

通过构建一个由最低工资标准等因素共同决定的劳动力就业函数,从理论层面分析最低工资标准提升等因素对城镇劳动力就业的影响。同时基于中国2004_2011年的省际面板数据,引入技术进步、城镇化、老年抚养比等指标,运用面板分位数回归方法进行实证分析。综合比较来看：现阶段最低工资标准提升与城镇劳动力就业呈显著正相关关系,而技术进步对城镇劳动力就业的影响不能一概而论,具有不确定性。其他控制变量如城镇化发展有利于提高城镇劳动力就业,而老年抚养比、对外开放度的提高却与城镇劳动力就业呈负相关关系。其对策含义为：要充分考虑相关因素对劳动力就业的冲击,理清不同地区、不同企业类型以及不同性别可能存在的有差异的劳动力就业效应,主张通过就业政策和劳动力市场制度的进一步完善,实现劳动力更加充分的就业。     

Patinkin,the Cowles Commission,and the theory of unemployment and aggregate supply

The paper provides an account of Don Patinkin's long-time search for an explanation of the notions of an aggregate demand constraint and unemployment under the assumption of a perfectly competitive goods market. It is argued that Patinkin's quest is reflected on the development of the concept of an aggregate supply function in the goods market. Patinkin's interpretation of aggregate supply and unemployment is compared to similar ideas put forward by Jacob Marschak, Trygve Haavelmo and Lawrence Klein, his former colleagues at the Cowles Commission in Chicago.     

Unemployment Durations in West Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System during the 1980s

Abstract. This paper analyzes empirically the distribution of unemployment durations in West Germany during the 1980s and 1990s. It therefore covers periods before and after the changes during the mid‐1980s in the maximum entitlement periods for unemployment benefits for older unemployed. The analysis is based on the IAB employment subsample containing administrative data for about 500,000 individuals. Since these data only partly reveal the unemployment duration in an economic sense, we use a narrow and a wide proxy for unemployment. Our empirical analysis finds significant changes in the distribution of non‐employment durations for older unemployed. At the same time, the distribution of unemployment durations between jobs remained unchanged after the reforms. Our findings clearly show that many firms and workers used the more beneficial laws as a part of early retirement packages. Surprisingly, for those workers who found and accepted a new job, we do not observe a prolongation of their search periods to a sizeable extent.     

An econometric analysis of the effects of market liberalization on price dynamics and price volatility

The paper investigates price dynamics under market liberalization, with a focus on the effects of lowering price floors. We analyze price dynamics by specifying and estimating a dynamic Tobit model under time-varying volatility, where the market price is censored by a government-set support price. The model is applied to the U.S. butter market over the last three decades. The econometric results show how the price support program affects both expected prices and the volatility of prices. It is found that the censoring effects of a price support program can be significant and large even if the price support is set relatively low.

Partial identification of distributional and quantile treatment effects in difference-in-differences models

In this paper, we supplement the identification results for the mean treatment effect for the treated in the difference-in-differences framework studied by Abadie (2005) by establishing partial identification results for the distribution and quantile of the counterfactual outcome and of the treatment effect for the treated. Unlike the mean treatment effect which is identifiable from either the panel or the repeated cross sectional data, we show that the distribution/quantile of either the counterfactual outcome or of the treatment effect is only partially identified and in general the identified interval is tighter with panel than with the repeated cross sectional data. We further illustrate this gain from the panel via a numerical example.     

Labour market reform and the macroeconomic efficiency of the labour market in Australia

This paper assesses the effects of a decade and a half of labourmarket reform in Australia on labour market flexibility at themacroeconomic level. Increased labour market flexibility isinterpreted as reduced structural unemployment and enhancedefficiency of matching. We use shifts in the Beveridge Curveas a measure of changes in labour market efficiency (followingSolow, R., What is labour-market flexibility? What is it goodfor?, Keynes Lecture, British Academy, London, December, 1997).Time series analysis of unemployment, vacancies and other relevantvariables strongly suggests that changes in the efficiency oflabour market matching over the period reflect the cyclicaleffects of hysteresis rather than the effects of labour marketreform.     

期货市场交易量与收益及波动关系的分位分析

采用分位数回归方法对上海期货市场铜、铝和燃料油期货收益及波动与成交量的动态关系进行实证研究。该方法允许估计不同分位的方程,从而得到条件分布的完整描述。结果显示上海期货市场期货价格收益具有异方差的特点;存在量价齐扬和量价背离现象;收益波动和成交量之间随着波动增大呈现逐渐加强的正向关系,从而说明我国期货市场信息传播符合混合分布假说。     

Policy matters. The long run effects of aggregate demand and mark-up shocks on the Italian unemployment rate

This paper estimates a VAR including labor productivity, real wage and unemployment rate, to identify the dynamic effects of technology, demand, and mark-up shocks, respectively, on the Italian labor market. Identification is achieved by imposing recursive restrictions on the matrix of long run multipliers. Our results show that both mark up and aggregate demand shocks permanently reduce the unemployment rate. Finally, technology shocks do not significantly affect the unemployment rate in the long run. These findings convey important policy implications: expansionary aggregate demand and deregulation policies reducing the mark up permanently decrease the Italian unemployment rate.Jel classification: C32, E32, J29This paper has been produced as part of a CEPR Research Network on New Approaches to the Study of Economic Fluctuations. We would like to thank Marcello DAmato, Mario Forni, Marco Lippi and Antonio Ribba for useful comments. We are also grateful to Bernd Sussmuth for pointing out to us several significant improvements to the paper.First version received: November 2001/Final version received: October 2002     

Interbank Relationships and the Credit Channel in Germany

A crucial condition for the existence of a credit channel through bank loansis that monetary policy should be able to change bank loan supply. This papercontributes to the discussion on this issue by presenting empirical evidence fromdynamic panel estimations based on a dataset that comprises individual balancesheet information on all German banks. It shows that the average bank reduces itslending more sharply in reaction to a restrictive monetary policy measure the lowerits ratio of short-term interbank deposits to total assets. A dependence on its size canonly be found if explicitly controlled for this dominating effect. Overall, the evidenceis compatible with the existence of a credit channel but the results indicate that it is weakened by the network structures that exist in the German banking system.     

The determinants of tendering periods for PPP procurement in the UK: an empirical analysis

The procurement of infrastructure projects via public–private partnerships (PPPs) is rising globally. PPPs are, however, often characterized by lengthy tendering periods, defined as the difference between contract notice and financial close. Tendering periods are important because they account for a significant proportion of overall project delivery time. Slow tendering deters bidders and thus reduces competition for contracts. We source data on 670 PPP projects in the United Kingdom and use a duration analysis model to empirically examine factors that impact tendering period duration. Our results reveal significant sectoral variation with projects in the health and housing sectors taking significantly longer to reach financial close. We also show that, after controlling for other factors, projects with higher capital values and projects that overlap with the timing of general elections are associated with significantly longer tendering periods. We further examine the impact of the competitive dialogue procurement method and find evidence that tendering periods have increased since 2006; the year competitive dialogue was introduced. We do, however, observe a significant reduction in the time between appointment of preferred bidder and financial close post-2006. This suggests that competitive dialogue is effective in reducing the scope for negotiations by preferred bidders holding quasi-monopoly advantages.