新兴市场国际资本流动的动因——基于亚洲和拉美新兴市场的研究

本文基于亚洲和拉美新兴市场13个样本国家1980~2013年的季度数据,运用静态和动态非均衡面板模型,对国际资本流动两种重要形式——直接投资和证券投资的动因进行区域比较研究。实证结果表明:本国和发达国家经济发展水平均对新兴市场的国际资本流动具有较为明显的拉动和推动作用;贸易开放度、利率水平、金融深化程度等表征一国投资环境的指标是国际资本流动的重要驱动因素;重大事件的发生、经济预期和汇市预期等预期因素的作用亦不可忽视;直接投资和证券投资的驱动因素存在显著的区域性差异。     

近期人民币汇率走势的多角度观察——专访摩根大通银行（中国）有限公司亚洲新兴市场中国区主管徐文波先生

2014年以来,国际汇市风云突变,美元指数在沉寂中迎来爆发,而人民币即期汇率在中间价波幅进一步放宽的基础上呈现明显的双向波动态势。如何理解各个货币涨跌背后的逻辑？展望4季度以及明年上半年,包括政策面、外汇市场业务、宏观经济走势等在内的多重因素会对人民币汇率走势产生怎样的影响？国际汇市格局将如何演变？针对这些问题,本刊从第10期开始将陆续刊发一组稿件,邀请市场知名机构的资深人士发表对于人民币汇率与国际汇市走势以及外汇市场业务相关问题的预测和看法,供读者参考。     

亚洲新兴市场银行业的崛起:现状、挑战与实现路径——兼评2007年全球1000家大银行排行榜

新世纪以来,亚洲新兴市场银行业发展迅猛,在2007年全球1000家大银行中,总资产、一级资本和税前利润规模全面超越日本银行业,与美国银行业差距逐步缩小,但当前仍然面临如何全面提高经营效率的种种挑战。以欧美经验为鉴,充分立足和挖掘本土市场、着眼经营战略转型、审慎掌握改革开放节奏、重视区域金融合作,应是亚洲新兴市场银行业走向崛起的重要路径选择。     

人民币离岸市场：风险可识规模可控政策可调——专访德意志银行大中华区首席经济学家马骏

2010年下半年以来,香港的离岸人民币市场高速成长,成为人民币国际化过程中最引人瞩目的亮点。但伴随着人民币离岸市场的高速发展,关于人民币国际化和离岸市场发展风险的讨论也日渐升级。     

On market price of risk in Asian capital markets around the Asian flu

This study investigates a contemporaneous relationship between realized market risk premia, and conditional variance and covariance in nine Asian markets and the US. The time period for this study is before, during, and after the Asian financial crisis. A contemporaneous state-dependent capital asset pricing model (CAPM) that allows for negative and positive market prices of variance and covariance risk is investigated. In the light of significant upstate and downstate reward to local and world variance risk for all markets and all periods, we conclude that a market return-generating process is a piecewise function of local and world variance over time. Furthermore, a cross-sectional analysis of upstate and downstate market prices of variance and covariance risk indicates that reward to risk is a mix of reward to local and world variance, depending on the ever-changing correlation with the world market. Our findings are consistent with the one-factor conditional international CAPM.     

银行与股票市场越走越近

西方一位营销专家、曾经这样描述过五六十年代西方商业银行传统业务的繁荣景象：“主管信贷的银行高级职员，面色呆板地把客户安排在大写字台前比自己低得多的觉子上，居高临下，颐指气使。阳光透过窗子照在孤立无援的贷款者身上，他正在对银行的高级职员叙述着自己的贷款理由，而冰；争的银行大楼则宛如希腊神殿．让人不寒而粟。”     

The effect of financial market development on bank risk: evidence from Southeast Asian countries

This paper examines how bank risk varies with changes in financial markets development in a broad data set of 52 publicly listed commercial banks in five Southeast Asian countries over a 23-year period between 1990 and 2012. A consequence of two financial crises (i.e. the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 and the global financial crisis of 2007–2009) provides a natural experiment in which linkages between financial markets development and bank risk are measured. Empirical results show that higher degrees of financial markets development are associated with weaker bank capital positions and are positively related to higher degrees of bank revenue diversification. There is also evidence for a U-shaped relationship between the degree of financial markets development and bank capital.     

亚洲经济体和金融市场面临的挑战

金融危机后亚洲国家取得了很多成绩,但仍然面临金融全球化、人口结构的改变、分配不公和贫困问题带来的挑战,这些挑战当中也蕴涵着机遇。十年前,亚洲主要经济体经历了由资本短期内大规模外逃导致的货币危机,此次资本外逃的规模和速度是前所未有的。危机暴露了金融业和产业界隐藏的风险,并造成了严重破坏。但亚洲国家最终成功走出危机。当私人部门的资本撤离亚洲国家时,国际社会通过IMF与包括日本的亚     

Diversification,rationality and the Asian economic crisis

We examine the reaction of world equity markets to the 1997 Asian Crisis. Correlations across the markets increased dramatically during the economic crisis but only during a relatively short period around the crisis. After the crisis, the benefits of international diversification improved substantially but did not return to the levels existing before the crisis. We then examine whether the market reactions to the crisis can be explained by economic fundamentals. We find that virtually all of the variation in returns across markets can be explained by these factors. The reaction of markets to the Asian Crisis was rational.     

资本市场要创新更要监管

1990年岁末,中华人民共和国先后在沪深两地开办了上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所。从此,中国大陆资本市场经历了从无到有、从＂摸着石头过河＂到交易监管体制不断完善的20年风雨历程。今天,中国沪深两市总市值已位列世界资本市场第二,并伴随着中国经济的高速发展越来越受到全球资本的瞩目。20年,在数千年中国历史的长河中,非常短暂,但是,中国改革开放的30载历史中,这20年的股市发展进程,却深刻影响了中国经济,影响了许多中国人的财富观,同时,也将成为促进未来国民经济结构调整和实现增长方式转换的重要资本力量。但是,比之国际老牌资本市场,中国大陆的资本市场尚有很多与经济发展速度不匹配的问题亟待完善。为此,《国际融资》杂志记者专程采访了原中国证监会主席周道炯     

Arbitrage risk and market efficiency

This article explores arbitràge risk and models a testable hypothesis for studies in the treasury bill futures market efficiency. The modern mean-variance theory applied to a hedged arbitrage portfolio is used for the analysis. For a given expected arbitrage profit, we derive minimum variance arbitrage (MVA) conditions. A minimum variance arbitrage line (MVAL) is then derived to show the risk-return tradeoff for arbitrage. Market efficiency conditions are discussed by taking into account arbitrage risk along with bid-ask spreads. The analysis in this study helps explain the puzzle of inefficiencies in the T-bill futures market. Because refinancing and variation margin (due to marking-to-market) are required for arbitrage using futures trading in general, our ex ante arbitrage model using the case of T-bill futures can be applied to other futures markets.     

Asian sovereign debt and country risk

This paper analyzes systematic risk of sovereign bonds in four East Asian countries: China, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. A bivariate stochastic volatility model that allows for time-varying correlation is estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The volatilities and correlation are then used to calculate the time-varying betas. The results show that country-specific systematic risk in Asian sovereign bonds varies over time. When adjusting for inherent exchange rate risk, the pattern of systematic risk is similar, even though the level is generally lower. The findings have important implications for international portfolio managers that invest in emerging sovereign bonds and those who need benchmark instruments to analyze risk in assets such as corporate bonds in the emerging Asian financial markets.     

The pricing of foreign exchange risk around the Asian financial crisis: evidence from Taiwan's stock market

The volatile exchange rate movement during the Asian financial crisis has led global investors to re-evaluate the importance of currency exposures in Asian stock markets. In this paper, we examine industry-level currency risk of Taiwan's stock market around the Asian financial crisis. The results show that most export-oriented industries, except for the electronics industry, are positively affected by the depreciation of the New Taiwan Dollars (NTD) against the US Dollars (USD). We also find that the magnitude of currency risk is less for banking and electronics industries in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) than for those in the over-the-counter (OTC) security exchange. Our results are consistent with the findings of Chow et al. (J. Financial Res. 2 (1997b) 191) and have important implications for international investors with exposures in Taiwan's stock market.     

Interaction of market and credit risk

Experience during the financial crisis illustrates that the integrated measurement and management of different forms of risk remains a challenge for industry practitioners, researchers and financial supervisors alike. In the context of related literature, this article summarizes new research on the interaction of market and credit risk and implications for risk management that is presented in this special issue. The research covered highlights in particular the errors that can occur in the aggregation of the two types of risk and the strong relationships between them that suggest caution in the use of pragmatic distinctions between them. The article also touches on some research-based lessons for supervisory policies and suggests some directions for future research.