Households savings in the U.S.A.

In this paper we study the saving behaviour of U.S.A. households. We use micro data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey from 1982 to 1995. We employ synthetic cohort techniques to characterize the life cycle profile of saving rates and other variables of interest. In particular, we pay attention to the distinction between mandatory saving and discretionary saving. We then relate our evidence to the recent policy debate on saving incentives and their usefulness.     

德国电信集团在T．I．M．E．S市场中

德国电信是欧洲最大的电信公司之一。公司在德国以内以及世界上另外若干个选定的国家里提供各种最现代化的产品与服务——从高速网络接入服务到移动因特网以及其他种种。德国电信认为信息社会正在形成一个需求深不可测的新的通信市场,并称之为T．I.M.E.S,即电信(T)、信息技术与因特网(I)、多媒体与移动商务(M)、娱乐与电子商务(E)、系统解决办法与安全服务(S)。     

F. A. Hayek vs. J. M. Keynes in Shackle's marginal gloss*

The intellectual rivalry of F. A. Hayek and J. M. Keynes has recently caught the attention of historians of economic thought, journalists and the broad public. However, how was it viewed at the time? This article uses archival material in the form of marginal annotations made by G. L. S. Shackle to determine contemporary reading responses to the theoretical developments of the 1930s. Shackle's unique reading style that includes legible, dated, annotations and the fact that a substantial part of his academic library survives gives us a unique vantage point from which to explore anew this period of intellectual history.     

美英对公用事业的管制

本文简要地介绍了美国和英国对公用事业实行管制的由来、做法和经验。作者指出．由于生用事业的自然垄断性质及其与公共福利密切相关的缘故，使得美英两国在公用事业各部门建立了管制体系。实践表明，管制既有利于保障公众福利，又有利于改善公用事业的经营管理。他们的经验可为中国改革公用事业的管理体制提供有益的参考。     

现代经济学在美国

现代经济学的分析框架由三个重要部分组成：视角（perspective)、参照系（reference）或基准点（benchmark）和分析工具（analytical tools）。效率是经济学家分析问题的着眼点；参照第在分析框架中居于核心位置；分析工具是重要的分析问题的手段。以上对理解现代经济学很重要。数学在经济学中的作用分两个方面：一是在理论分析中的作用，它可以逼你把前提假定写清楚，使你在逻辑推导中少出错，并运用已有的定理把不相通的结论连结起来；二是数学在教学中的作用，它可以以同一标准将经济学知识传授给很多人。但是，数学的作用只能是工具。经济学的思想是最重要的。     

Determinants of U.S. direct investment in the E.E.C.: Revisited

This paper expands upon an earlier work in this Review concerning the specification of a model to identify the determinants of U.S. direct foreign investment (DFI) in the E.E.C. Compared to earlier studies, a longer data series is used, an improved tariff discrimination proxy is employed, and ‘predicted sales’ are estimated and used as the output variable in the empirical work. A variable to capture the effect of the U.S. capital control programs is also included. The findings reaffirm the importance of market size, especially in the plant and equipment equations, as being an important determinant of DFI. Strong support was also found for the growth hypothesis. Consistent statistical support was found for the tariff discrimination hypothesis. In addition, the findings imply that a variable to capture the effects of fluctuating exchange rates should be included in future studies.     

Determinants of U.S. direct investment in the E.E.C.: Revisited again

This paper discusses the Scaperlanda-Balough comment on a previous study of mine that appeared in this Review. The Scaperlanda-Balough paper extends and improves upon my study by employing better variables to test the hypotheses. However, I offer a different interpretation of the empirical evidence they present concerning the efficacy of the U.S. controls on direct investment.     

Technical change in U.S. industries

We use the normalized quadratic cost function, introduced by Diewert and Wales (1987), to measure and analyze the rate and biases of technical change at the sectoral level in eleven major U.S. industries — manufacturing, construction, mining, agriculture, finance, health, wholesale, transportation, education, hospitality, and utilities — using annual KLEM (capital, labor, energy, and intermediate materials) data from the World KLEMS database, over the period from 1947 to 2010. We extend the work in Feng and Serletis (2008), by taking a new approach to econometric modeling, merging the econometric approach to productivity measurement with recent state-of-the-art advances in financial econometrics. In particular, we relax the homoskedasticity assumption and instead assume that the covariance matrix of the errors of the flexible interrelated factor demand systems is time-varying. We also pay explicit attention to theoretical regularity, treating the curvature property as a maintained hypothesis, thus achieving superior modeling in the context of a parametric nonlinear factor demand system that captures certain important features of the data.     

Predictable non-linearities in U.S. inflation

This paper compares the out-of-sample inflation forecasting performance of two non-linear models; a neural network and a Markov switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. We find that predictable non-linearities in inflation are best accounted for by the MS-AR model.     

Determinants of U.S. direct investment in the E.E.C.: Further evidence

This study attempts to identify the determinants of U.S. direct foreign investment in the E.E.C. Previous studies are examined and an alternative specification is presented. The results indicate that the size of the market, growth of the market, height of trade barriers, and lagged net plant and equipment expenditures are important. Even so, the author feels that the data is too weak to permit strong policy statements from being made, as has been done in some of the previous papers.     

新经济与美国的经济周期

本文首先分析了美国经济的长波特性，说明了创新是长波发动的原因，并指出目前美国正处于第五轮长波的上升期。然后通过希克斯经济周期模型实证分析了美国自1990年代初开始的经济中波，根据中波的周期、波形特征并结合长波解释了美国1990年代的新经济以及从2000年下半年开始的经济减速，并据此对美国今后一段时间的经济走势作出预测。最后，根据结论分析了对我国经济的启示。     

美国生物医学研究概况

美国国立卫生研究院（NIH）专司是美国唯一一家国家级公立生物医学研究机构，负责生物医学领域的研究和管理。在关联邦机构中，NIH掌管的研发经费仅次于国防部。本文对NIH的科研投入情况、资助计划和发展方向进行介绍和分析，旨在从宏观上把握美国生物医学的总体发展水平和重点方向。