Fisher's Introductory Text

A bstract .   In this essay, James Tobin discusses Fisher's Elementary Principles of Economics (1912 ). This essay was first published in the American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings , 87 (May 1997): pp. 430–432. We are grateful to the American Economic Association for permission to republish this essay.     

计量经济学理论与案例分析的整合

计量经济学应用性和实践性的特点与案例教学法是一致的,本文基于案例分析对计量经济学教学积极而重要的作用,分析了当前计量经济学案例分析在内容、方式、支持资源和成绩评定方式等方面遇到的问题,提出解决问题必须对计量经济学基本理论和模型进行精致化和精细化的处理,必须选取恰当案例保证案例分析效果,而提升教师专业素质是实现计量经济学人才培养目标的保障。     

Fisher's Inverse Probability of 1930

In 1930 R. A. Fisher put forward the fiducial argument. This paper discusses the argument and its origins in Fisher's earlier work. It also emphasises the contribution of Mordecal Ezekiel to the 1930 publication.     

Distinctive Features of Environmental Innovators: An Econometric Analysis

This paper analyzes the main determinants influencing environmental innovators (i.e. firms developing or adopting environmental innovations) in Spain with respect to non‐environmental innovators. Similarly to other contributions in the literature, our results show that Spanish environmental innovators respond to regulatory stimulus in the form of demand‐pull and technology‐push instruments. They have a high internal technological capability and combine internal and external information sources, mostly in cooperation with knowledge institutions. Environmental innovators are more concentrated in mature, traditionally highly polluting sectors, but new firms are not more environmentally innovative than incumbents. Most importantly, in contrast to other environmental innovation studies, mostly carried out in a German context, we have not found evidence of a market pull from either the domestic or international markets. Furthermore, cost savings are not found to be a distinctive driver for environmental innovators. These differential results are possibly related to the special features of Spain regarding its national innovation system and the degree of stringency of environmental regulation and environmental consciousness of its consumers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables

This paper provides a selective survey of the recent literature dealing with I(2) variables in economic time series, that is, processes that require to be differenced twice in order to become stationary. With reference to particular economic models intuition is provided of why I(2)-and polynomial cointegration are features likely to occur in economics. The properties of I(2) series are discussed and I review topics such as: Testing for double unit roots, representations of I(2) cointegrated systems, and hypothesis testing in single equations as well as in systems of equations. Different data sets are used to illustrate the various econometric and statistical techniques.     

Econometric Causality

This paper presents the econometric approach to causal modelling. It is motivated by policy problems. New causal parameters are defined and identified to address specific policy problems. Economists embrace a scientific approach to causality and model the preferences and choices of agents to infer subjective (agent) evaluations as well as objective outcomes. Anticipated and realized subjective and objective outcomes are distinguished. Models for simultaneous causality are developed. The paper contrasts the Neyman–Rubin model of causality with the econometric approach.     

教育对经济增长贡献的计量分析

教育在经济增长中起着重要作用，是促进经济增长的重要因素；经济增长反过来又能够支撑着教育，并有利于它的发展。两者呈现出辩证的相关关系，形成良性循环。本文从研究教育对经济增长贡献的角度出发，分析、认识这种辩证关系。     

计量模型中的加总偏误识别与检验

采用逐步分类加总方法,运用美加与欧盟五国大豆贸易经验数据,依据加总的一般形式对欧盟转基因政策贸易效应研究中的加总偏误问题进行分路径、分步骤的识别与检验,考察加总偏误的存在性及偏误来源,有效诊断加总过程内生性存在的路径与节点。根据有限剔除法将部分内生性因素进行剔除,分析结果显示修正模型中的加总偏误得到显著改善。     

中国省域经济增长趋同的空间计量经济分析

本文在巴罗与萨拉一伊一马丁新古典增长模型的基础上，提出了区域经济增长口趋同的空间计量经济分析模型框架，采用1978～2002年的截面数据，分析了空间效应和口趋同效应及其成因。中国省域经济经过改革开放25年的发展，在地理上的集聚性明显增强的同时，空间联系也在不断密切，考虑空间自相关的空间误差趋同口模型是目前研究中国省域经济增长截面趋同比较合适的模型，趋同速度约为2％，这与目前跨国截面研究的结果基本一致。地理因素和空间效应一起对经济增长和收入差距产生重要影响。     

Econometric analysis of copyrights

This paper explores the impact of copyrights on firm value and on the demand for firm output. Using panel data on franchise value and ticket sales from the National Football League over the 1991–2000 period, we analyze the effect of copyrights (in this case, team logos) using several parametric estimators, the Arellano and Bond [1991. Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies 58, 277–297] dynamic panel data estimator, and a semi-non-parametric method based on difference-in-differences propensity score matching. We find a negative effect of logo changes on franchise value that is robust across multiple specifications. In addition, logo changes also appear to have a moderate positive, albeit not particularly robust, impact on ticket sales.     

微观计量分析中缺失数据的极大似然估计

微观计量经济分析中常常遇到缺失数据,传统的处理方法是删除所要分析变量中的缺失数据,或用变量的均值替代缺失数据,这种方法经常造成样本有偏。极大似然估计方法可以有效地处理和估计缺失数据。本文首先介绍缺失数据的极大似然估计方法,然后对一实际调查数据中的缺失数据进行极大似然估计,并与传统处理方法的估计结果进行比较和评价。     

Fisher's The Nature of Capital and Income*

Abstract . In this essay James Tobin reminds us of the importance of Irving Fisher's great book and how that book was favorably received by economists. Fisher presented fundamental definitions and supplied a path breaking exposition of the mathematics of interest rates and their relationship to the valuation of assets. This essay was originally published as the “Editorial Introduction to Volume 2 of The Works of Irving Fisher, 14 vols London: Pickering & Chatto, 1997; 2:1–6.     

Information and Economics in Fisher's Design of Experiments

In 1951 R. A. Fisher described what had been achieved in the 20th century so far: “we have learnt (i) To conserve in its statistical reduction the scientific information latent in any body of observations. (ii) To conduct experimental and observational inquiries so as to maximise the information obtained for a given expenditure.” This paper asks what Fisher meant and, in particular, how he saw his work on experimental design as contributing to the objective of maximizing information for a given expenditure. The material examined ranges from detailed work on issues like “the information lost in measurement of error” to polemics against decision theory .     

转轨时期的工资差异:歧视的计量分析

消除城市劳动力市场上对于农村迁移劳动力的歧视性政策，消除城市劳动力市场的扭曲，使农村迁移劳动力融入城市生活，对于一个健康的城市化过程和经济发展是非常必要的。本文的研究表明，政府必须在这个过程中发挥主要和积极作用，尽量减少劳动力市场扭曲，消除对于农村迁移劳动力的歧视，加快培育完善的劳动力市场。     

An Econometric Analysis of Polish Inflation Dynamics with Learning about Rational Expectations

Rational expectations modelling has been criticized for assuming that economic agents can learn quickly about and compute rational price expectations. In response, various authors have studied theoretical models in which economic agents use adaptive statistical rules to develop price expectations. A goal of this literature has been to compare resulting learning equilibria with rational expectations equilibria. The lack of empirical analysis in this literature suggests that adaptive learning makes otherwise linear dynamic models nonlinearly intractable for current econometric technology. In response to the lack of empirical work in this literature, this paper applies to post-1989 monthly data for Poland a new method for modelling learning about price expectations. The key idea of the method is to modify Cagan’s backward-looking adaptive-expectations hypothesis about the way expectations are actually updated to a forward-looking characterization which instead specifies the result of learning. It says that, whatever the details of how learning actually takes places, price expectations are expected to converge geometrically to rationality. The method is tractable because it involves linear dynamics. The paper contributes substantively by analyzing the recent Polish inflation, theoretically by characterizing learning, and econometrically by using learning as a restriction for identifying (i.e., estimating wth finite variance) unobserved price expectations with the Kalman filter. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于神经网络计量经济学模型经济扰动分析的研究

神经网络计量经济学模型可以描述很复杂的经济现象，但由于神经网络模型没有一目了解的函数关系，限制了经济振动分析的进行。本文利用数值求导得到了一个基于神经网络计量经济学模型的经济振动分析公式，并通过建立一个神经网络递归计量经济学模型来描述日本政府参与中小企业金融的行为，并在此基础上用经济振动分析来进行检验。