Is China up to the Test？ A Review of Theories and Priorities for Education Investment for a Modern China

This paper reviews the key theories relating to the role of education in economic development and social change and how education, as a critical component of total factor productivity, contributes to sustained economic growth. It examines how China ＂s education policy reflects the country＇s unique dual economy. Focusing on the post-reform period, the paper contends that while progress has been made, there are risks to China＇s future growth prospects from failing to reap the benefits of sound education policy. It argues that if the Chinese education system is to continue to be a driver of rather than a drain on economic growth, and if China is to successfully manage its transition towards more inclusive, sustainable and equitable growth, reforms will be needed to improve the quality of education at all levels and to create an environment in which China＇s extensive human capital is duly recognized and respected. Crucially, the education system should be transformed to ensure it promotes a comprehensive range of human capabilities, including those that go beyond the part humans play in augmenting production possibilities.     

英文文摘

Economists talk about China＇s future
He Qiang, professor of Central University of Finance and Economics, believes that economic indicators will be from high to low in short-term and that is normal. And he advises that China＇s policy maintains stability in the last few months, the government shouldn＇t change its policy accroding to a temporary quarter fluctuations. He said, the stability development of following two years is important to the future.     

Reaping the Economic Benefits of Decarbonization for China

Chinaneeds to reduce its carbon emissions if global climate change mitigation is to succeed. Conventional economic analysis views cutting emissions as a cost, creating a collective action problem. However, decarbonization can improve productivity andprovide co-benefits that accord with multiple national policy objectives. We track China ＇ s progress in reducing the emissions intensity of the economy, and construct a macro scenario with China＇s carbon emissions peaking in the 2020s. Investment in greater energy productivity and economic restructuring away from heavy industries can bring productivity gains, and decarbonization of energy supply has important co-benefits for airpollution and energy security. Combined with lower climate change risks and the likelihood thai China＇s actions will influence other countries, this suggests that cutting carbon emissions is not only in China＇s self-interest but also in the global interest. To properly identify the true costs and benefits of climate change action requires new thinking in economic analysis.     

China＇s Role in Global Climate Change Mitigation

China contributed a majority of the growth in global greenhouse gas emissions in the first 11 years of this century The trajectory of emissions has changed radically since then, as China has irrplemented its Cancun 2010 commitment to reduce the 2005 emissions intensity of economic activity by 40-45percent by 2020. The change in trajectory has been reinforced by China＇s new model of economic growth, with its greater emphasis on equity in income distribution, consumption and services. The large-scale deployment of low emissions technology in China is lowering the cost of transition to a low carbon economy all over the world. China ＇ s new emissions trajectory improves the opportunity For the international community to meet the 2℃ climate target. It is essential that the changes in China are brought to account in shaping global mitigation ambition.     

Financial Imbalance Index as a New Early Warning Indicator： Methods and Applications in the Chinese Economy

Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index （FII） from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China＇s macro-financial analysis. The results show that the FII is not only an effective index to detect financial imbalances in China＇s economic cycles, but is also more accurate than and plays more of a leading role than conventional indicators, such as the consumer price index, the financial conditions index and the purchasing managers indicator. Empirical analysis shows that the FII can be used as an effective indicator to measure systemic financial risk, and can provide policy-makers and market participants with useful information to make appropriate decisions.     

China＇s Economy in 2007/2008： Coping with Problems of Runaway Growth

Fuelled by high domestic investment and rapid export expansion, China ＂s economy grew by ll.4 pereent in 2007, the highest increase since 1994 and the fifth eonseeutive year of double-digit growth. Such spectacular growth performance is unprecedented in the world＇s economic history. However, the Chinese Government is again worried about a possible ＂hard landing＂for the economy, as no economy can sustain very strong growth for extremely long period without overheating. Cracks in China ＂s economy are indeed emerging. The eonsumer priee index shot up to 6.9percent in November 2007, the highest level in a decade, with the annual inflation for 2007 rising to 4.S pereent, well above the government＇s ＂comfort level＂ of 3 percent. This prompted China＇s top leadership to declare that reducing economic overheating and curbing inflation would be the top poliey priorities for 2008. To contain such cost-push inflation, the government has to tackle its root causes, such as excessive liquidity, which is caused by the undervaluation of the renminbi, which in turn is attributable to China＇s chronic external and internal maeroeeonomie imbalances~ High growth is likely to continue in 2008, at around l O pereent, with inflation of S-6 pereent expected, despite the anticipated tighter maeroeeonomie control measures and the more troubled external economic environment （e.g. the expected US economic slowdown）. Regardless, China ＂s fundamental problems associated with runaway growth will largely remain. In addition, if the US economy slips into a serious recession, the Chinese economy will not be able to deeouple from it and escape unscathed.     

Guest Editors＇ Words

For this Special Issue we have endeavored to compile a set of papers that carry a coherent message to the readership of China ＆ World Economy. The work builds upon and seeks to extend two recent topics of debate in China. First, we recognize and add to the literature on tightening labor markets, rising wage rates and the emergence of a new era in China＇s economic development. Second, we contribute to the debate on the seriousness of inequality inChina.     

Financial Development, Economic Growth and Adaptive Efficiency： A Comparison between China and Pakistan

The strong economic growth in China is difficult to reconcile with its inefficient financial system. The puzzle of China＇s financial development and growth can be explained through a dynamic criterion of adaptive efficiency, rather than through allocative efficiency. Using the framework of an autoregressive distributed lag model, the present paper tests the hypothesis that the GDP growth rate is dependent on financial development along with other variables in China and Pakistan. The hypothesis cannot be rejected in both cases. However, the results show that economic growth has a negative relationship with credit to the private sector in China. We conclude that financial development is a source of China＇s high growth rate and that the banking system is still under an evolutionary process, involving the pursuit of social objectives instead of the sole objective of profit maximization. Our results provide some implications for other developing countries like Pakistan.     

Economic Policies for a Harmonious Society： A Symposium Editorial Introduction

China＇s remarkable economic growth has produced dramatic structtral and socioeconomic change. Economic growth has solved many problems but the accompanying changes in the economy and society have brought new problems to the fore. This has been recognized by China＇s Government in the recent emphasis that it has placed on the need to create a ＂harmonious society.＂ The new leadership will wish to devise new policies for the current challenges and those ahead.     

RMB Internationalization and Its Implications for Financial and Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

This paper emphasizes the importance of the denomination of financial assets rather than trade invoicing as a long-term determinant of an international currency. China needs to liberalize and open its financial system and make the RMB fully convertible, and to adopt a moreflexible exchange rate system to speed up its currency internationalization, for which China could follow either a global or regional approach. The global approach is a riskier and more unpredictable strategy because it would demand a scope and timeframe of financial liberalization that is likely to be beyond China＇s institutional capacity over the coming decade. There are two options that could be taken in following the regional approach. One is creating an ASEAN＋ New 3 （the Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan） RMB bloc and the other is liberalizing China＇s financial industries and internationalizing the RMB by playing a leading role in East Asia＇s economic integration within the framework of ASEAN＋ 3, This paper concludes that the latter is a more realistic and effective approach for China.     

Growing Economic Interdependence of China and the Gulf Cooperation Council

The six nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council （GCC） have approximately 40percent of total proven oil reserves as well as 23 percent of the world＇s gas reserves. Although rising oil revenues have led to greater outward investment flows, there is also a growing need for significant expansion of the domestic energy sector＇s capacity. Meanwhile, China＇s sustained economic boom has resulted in China emerging as the world＇s second largest consumer and importer o foil, with close to 40percent of its import demand presently sourced from the GCC. This share will grow significantly in the future. Commercial relations between the GCC and China have to date been dominated by energy-related bilateral investment flows and China＇s oil imports. Although this will continue to be a central feature, trade and investment links in non-energy areas will further broaden and deepen the relationship. China ＇s relationship with the USA in terms of energy is also emerging as a major issue. Rather than being competitors, a mutual dependence on stable and secure supplies from the GCC highlights the need for a cooperative relationship.     

The effect of customer perceived value on B ＆ R loyalty model --An empirical study on China＇s commercial banks

Under the economic globalization trend and new domestic and international competitive environment, how to develop and upgrade the comprehensive strength and international competence, and how to promote marketization and internationalization have becomes the very focuses of China＇s commercial banks. Since the 1990s, the marketing paradigm of customer-orientation has replaced the product-orientation, therefore, perceived value, the variable from consumer＇s perception, begins to draw academic and financial fields＇ attention. However, few studies tended to analyze the relationship between perceived value, word-of-mouth communication intention, and satisfaction. Also, no study combined customer perceived value with the loyalty model of B ＆ R, thus the authors make a new attempt in this regard, and hope that the conclusion will provide useful reference for financial activities.     

Labor Market Reform, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China

The year 1996 was a turning point both in terms of Chinese labor market reform aria m China＇s economic growth pattern. Before 1996, labor market reform was mainly implemented through adjustment of people＇s occupation and income structure. Since 1996, employment restructuring has led to differentiation in terms of employment status. Labor market reform in the former stage resulted in slow growth in wages, whereas reform in the latter stage enhanced economic efficiency. Both stages have enabled the Chinese economy to apply its comparative advantage of low labor cost. Labor market reform has also increased income disparity and, therefore, new challenges are posed in sustaining economic growth. China needs to adjust its development strategies and introduce labor market reform that can improve income equality, so as to achieve sustainable economic development.     

The Research on the Relation between China＇s Accession to WTO and China＇s Economic Development under the Theory of Comparative Advantage

According to the theory of comparative advantage, the relation between China＇s accession to WTO and China＇s economic development is studied. And a positive conclusion is presented in this article.     

Study on Distribution Model of Lubricant in China

In China, the lubricant market is confronted with a new competitive situation. This paper analyzes the status quo of market of lubricant and discusses the pros and cons of four major distribution models of lubricant in China market now. This paper＇s results will be beneficial to further study of how to choose the appropriate distributor for both local and international lubricant companies.     

ECONOMIC RESEARCH JOURNAL

Established in 1955, the Economic Research Journal （Jingji Yanjiu） is a comprehensive Chinese economics journal sponsored by the Institute of Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and circulated worldwide. It has been adhering to the principle of maintaining high academic standard, keeping pace with the times, upholding innovation and promoting forward thinking. Based on China＇s realities and geared to the forefront of the international economics research, ERJ is devoted to publishing high-quality and original theoretical articles on economic issues that have cropped up during China＇s reform and opening-up, economic development and institutional restructuring.     

China： Unscathed through the Global Financial Tsunami

This paper investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China＇s economy to the global financial tsunami. China ＇s economy is lowly leveraged in its banking, household, public and external sectors and, therefore, is less plagued by the global deleveraging than most developed economies. Chinese domestic sectors have improved significantly over the past decade, giving them larger capacity to cope with external shocks than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that China＇s economic growth is highly dependent on exports, we find that the main growth engine for China is domestic demand. Destocking, rather than falling exports, was the main cause of the sharp economic slowdown in China in late 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the global economic slowdown should have limited impact on China＇s economy. We forecast a sustained eeonomic recovery in China in 2009-2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010.     

The Research on the Way of Improving Chinese Enterprises＇ Competitiveness

With China＇s entry into WTO, the constant quickening of industrializing process and further improvement of the opening, the range and means that Chinese enterprises participate in international competition will be expanded and improved further. So, how to improve the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises as soon as possible becomes a very important and urgent subject in front of us. To improve the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises effectively we must rely on the national conditions and the existing industries, use new and high technology, aim at the structure adjustment, tuna the style of economic increase of enterprises from extensive operation to intensive operation practically, set up normal modem company＇s system and improve the administration, promote the competitiveness of the state-owned enterprises, accelerate promoting the vigor of the privately operated enterprises, thus strengthen the market competitiveness of Chinese enterprises on the whole.     

＂The Belt and Road＂ Initiative and APEC Regional Economic Cooperation

Facing the profound changes in today＇s global political and economic situation, ＂the belt and road＂ initiative turns to be China＇s the most significant regional arrangement and opening-up strategy, which embraces great internal consistency with APEC graphically, methodologically and connotationally, and deeply related to the FTAAP Initiative.     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.