资产价格波动差异:由股市与房价观察

我国股票市场和住宅市场的市盈率与货币幻觉代理变量通货膨胀率、名义利率呈现明显的反向关系,即在高通胀时,市场被低估;在低通胀时,市场被高估。通货膨胀通过货币幻觉,影响资产估值高低。股市的市盈率波动幅度远大于住宅市场,股票价格波动主要来自估值倍数变化;而住宅的估值倍数波动小,房价波动更多地受到了估值倍数与租金变化的综合影响。     

Notes and Communications

Summary The relationship between home ownership of Dutch elderly households and age is strongly negative. Other studies suggest that this age gradient should be attributed to a cohort effect. In this paper, we investigate where those cohort effects come from. We also observe that mortgage ownership among elderly home owners increased considerably during the nineties. Using panel data, we estimate models explaining home and mortgage ownership by age, cohort, and time effects, as well as other factors. Cohort and time effects are modelled explicitly using macro economic and housing market related variables. We find that the level of GDP per capita when the household head was young is the main factor explaining generation effects in home ownership among the elderly. After accounting for cohort effects it also appears that home ownership decreases slightly with age. Mortgage ownership among elderly home owners rose considerably during the nineties due to house price increases and due to financial innovation in the mortgage market. Cohort effects are also important. A supplementary analysis suggests that those cohort effects are due to the fact that the accidental bequest motive is becoming less important. We thank Maarten van Rooij, Konstantinos Tatsiramos, Casper van Ewijk, Wouter Vermeulen, Frederic Vermeulen, Frank de Jong and Marcel Lever for their useful comments     

中国货币供应量与能源价格的实证分析

以2005年1月至2011年12月的货币发行量和能源价格月度数据为样本,采用VAR模型和基于该模型的脉冲响应、方差分解、误差修正和格兰杰因果检验等实证方法分析二者之间的短期及长期均衡关系,结论表明:货币发行量(M2)和能源价格具有显著的长期协整关系;但短期内,与货币发行量对能源价格的影响程度相比,能源价格对货币发行量的影响程度较强,即在短期内货币发行量的变动没有显著地传导到能源价格变动上。     

居民消费价格指数变动趋势预测

一年来,居民消费价格指数(CPI)呈线性增长态势,形成通胀压力。经过建立数学模型测定,以及定性分析对定量分析结果的修正,可以预见,CPI增幅将会突破4%,且今后一段时期内,CPI仍会处在增幅3%以上的高位波动,通胀压力仍然存在,但CPI的上升空间有限。     

国内价格的汇率传递性——基于VAR模型的实证研究

本文利用VAR模型研究了我国国内价格的汇率传递性。VAR模型的脉冲反应函数显示,存在人民币汇率对国内价格的不完全传递性,但是,传递弹性极低,进口价格指数的汇率传递弹性要强于消费价格指数的汇率传递弹性,且进口价格指数向消费价格指数传导逐渐衰减。因此,通过汇率升值来抑制通胀效果并不理想,从紧的货币政策才是医治通胀的良药。     

Hogdges-Ajine test for hypothesis of uniform distribution of China consumer price index from 2001 to 2005

The uniformity of China consumer price index （CCPI） could be tested by using the Hodges-Ajine testing method. The result that population is submitting to uniform distribution is obtained. Correspondingly, the uniformity of CCPI indicates that the general price level has been stable in the past five years. Finally, the reasons of the uniformity are analyzed.     

货币供应、通胀预期管理与物价调控手段

基于VAR模型的物价波动成因的实证分析显示,1992年以来货币因素对CPI的贡献率为70.03%,货币始终是影响我国物价的主要因素;但2003年以来,影响物价的因素变得更为复杂,物价上涨主要由劳动力成本、通胀预期和货币因素共同拉动,其对CPI的贡献率分别为39.97%、26.73%和25.19%,输入性通胀因素对CPI的贡献率为8.11%。现阶段稳定物价水平不仅要注重控制货币供应,更应注重劳动生产率的提高和通胀预期的管理。     

我国信贷规模、价格与货币供应量关系的实证研究

本文根据1978～2009年我国历年银行信贷量、居民消费价格指数和货币供应量的有关数据,运用协整理论,从短期和长期两方面对改革开放以来我国信贷规模、价格与货币供应量之间的动态关系进行实证研究,结果表明,三者之间存在长期均衡关系。从总体上说,货币供应量、银行信贷的变化对物价均有明显的正效应,且货币供应量的变化较银行信贷对物价有更大的影响。从短期看,银行信贷的变化较之货币供应的变化对物价又有更快的更为明显的效果,具有更好的时效性。因此,在制定政策稳定物价、抑制和缓解通货膨胀时,应从总体上着眼于货币供应量的调控,同时考虑到时效性,也要关注银行信贷的短期影响,将二者有机结合起来以达到更好的宏观调控效果。     

辽宁省出口贸易的多因素分析

为了更好的发展辽宁省出口贸易,运用计量经济学的计量方法以及E-views软件,对辽宁省出口额、辽宁省地区生产总值、人民币汇率（人均年平均数,对美元）、居民消费价格指数、城镇新增固定资产进行回归分析,并且对模型的时间序列平稳性、多重共线性、异方差以及自相关进行检验。得出最终模型,分析表明居民消费价格指数、人民币汇率对产品出口具有很高的相关性,其次是地区生产总值,城镇新增固定资产也对辽宁出口贸易产生影响。     

Household consumption patterns and the consumer price index,England, 1260–1869

Existing long-run consumer price indices for England rely on a fixed consumption basket. Here we construct a methodologically improved, chained-Laspeyres price index for ordinary households based on their changing expenditure patterns between 1260 and 1869. Rather than offering a revisionist perspective on long-run costs, it confirms the broad accuracy of existing indices for the pre-industrial period. The dominant dependence of the key items of expenditure on agricultural, particularly arable, prices explains this finding. The industrial period introduced a new dynamic. The shift in household expenditure towards imported groceries and manufactured goods allowed for more substitution in response to relative price and income changes. Adding the current series to those chained-Laspeyres indices available for later periods provides a CPI for ordinary households in England over nearly eight centuries; from 1260 to the present day.     

The impacts of distance to CBD on housing prices in Shanghai: a hedonic analysis

It is widely recognized that location is the primary determining factor of housing price. But to what extent the variation of housing price in Shanghai can be explained by the locational factor has not been empirically examined. In this paper, we examine the power of applying the hedonic method to the spatial-statistical analysis of housing prices in Shanghai. The data we use covers all new commercial residential housings sold in Shanghai during July 2004 and June 2006. The main focus in this paper is to examine the effect of geographical distance to city centre on the selling price of residential housings in Shanghai. We also discuss how the price gradient varies at different directions in Shanghai. Finally, we demonstrate the importance of applying quality control on the development of a housing price index. The statistical methodology and empirical results obtained in this paper carry interesting implications for other cities in China as well.     

人民币汇率、短期国际资本流动与房价——基于时变参数向量自回归模型的研究

2017年上半年以来,金融周期的概念受到广泛关注。我国房价与人民币汇率,作为资产价格,在金融周期中呈现较强的相关性。随着我国资本项目的逐步对外开放,国际资本流动加大了二者的相关程度,表现出金融顺周期性。通过TVP-VAR模型,文章分析房价、短期国际资本流动与人民币汇率的时变动态关系,试图用短期国际资本流动解释房价与汇率的相关性,并发现国际资本的顺周期性呈现不对称特点：国际资本流出时期在房价与汇率的相关性中起到桥梁变量的作用,较流入时期而言顺周期性更强。因此,文章认为关注金融周期中资本项目开放产生的不对称顺周期性对于防范金融危机具有重要意义。     

Housing Supply,Demand and Price: Construction Cost,Rental Price and House Price Indices

Housing prices are subject to the impacts of supply as well as demand. While supply is affected by construction costs, demand is determined by the renting/buying considerations of the public. As a result, the construction cost index (CCI) on the supply side and the rental price index (RPI) on the demand side should be closely related to the house price index (HPI). The present study adopts three price indices of the Taiwan housing market, the CCI, the RPI and the HPI, and examines long‐term and short‐term correlations among the three indices. Empirical results indicate that the relationships among three indices are nonlinear. More interestingly, this article finds that the HPI stimulates changes in the CCI and the RPI, although construction costs and rent are viewed as fundamentals in the existing literature. This phenomenon is rather obvious when deviations of the latter two indices from the HPI are greater. The corrective behavior of the HPI is more notable under these circumstances.     

Analysis of main subjects of the goods price formation in the market economy

The theoretical researchers, in the socialist market economy, are obliged to study the new features, the new rules, and the new important subjects of the product and service price formation in the contemporary economic development. Based on the theoretical analysis of the main subjects of the goods price formation, this paper reveals that the governmental policy is the main information resource of the main subjects of the goods price formation, the cost of goods is the main index of the main subjects of goods price formation and the consumer demand is the initial motivation of the main subjects of goods price formation.     

输变电工程造价指数体系构建及计算方法研究

针对以往造价指数分析中运用同一种方法进行全部指数计算时的不适用性,在充分对比派氏及拉氏指数计算方法的基础上,结合不同造价指数的特点为输变电工程的综合及分项造价指数、价格指数及物量指数分别制定了适宜的指数编制过程,并对电网公司2008-2014年输变电工程造价指数进行实例分析。实例分析结果表明：研究提出的指数计算方法能够更准确的衡量造价波动实际情况。     

铜期货价格与现货价格的关系及启示

随着经济的快速发展,我国对大宗商品的消费需求不断增加,然而综观我国目前的对外贸易,作为大买家却没有定价权,这与需求大国和对外贸易大国的身份极不相称。本文对铜期货价格与现货价格的关系进行了实证研究,进而对现货市场价格的局限性及期货市场价格的功能进行了理性分析,提出利用期货市场争夺国际定价权。     

Output and Productivity Performance of Hong Kong and Singapore's Transport and Communications Sector, 1990 to 2005*

This paper uses the industry of origin approach to analyze value added and labor productivity outcomes arising from progressive liberalization of government and from statutory board control of transport and communications in Singapore. The paper compares these outcomes with those from the market‐orientated, more privatized transport and communications sector in Hong Kong, for the benchmark year 2004 and a review period from 1990 to 2005. The study is among the first to carefully compare labor productivity in specific sectors between the two countries. Although Singapore generally recorded higher levels of labor productivity, there was some catch‐up by Hong Kong in the later part of the review period. There was also substantial variation in labor productivity performance within sectoral branches in the two sectors. The study suggests there is some evidence that the different political–economic structures and policy approaches to deregulation and liberalization played a role in determining productivity performance in the transport and communications sectors in Singapore and Hong Kong. The analysis infers a potential, increasing focus on privatization as the driving force for further liberalization of the transport and communications sector in Singapore.     

浙江出口商品质量的测度及比较分析

文章基于浙江2002-2012年海关HS六位码贸易数据,从浙江出口商品构成、出口商品的技术含量、出口商品的单位价格三个方面对浙江的出口商品质量与19个样本国及中国总体水平进行比较分析,研究发现:浙江的出口商品构成、技术复杂度与发达国家有明显差距,而且不及中国总体水平,但浙江出口商品有鲜明的"差异化"特色;不同于中国总体的显著正偏离,浙江的出口复杂度与其收入水平基本相符;浙江出口商品的单位价格显示,相对于不同的参照国,浙江出口商品具有不同的出口优势。总体上,浙江的出口商品质量与其在中国的经济地位并不匹配,为此,浙江出口急需深化加工和转型升级。     

Revisiting Cash Endowment and House Money Effects in an Experimental Auction of a Novel Agri‐food Product in the Philippines

This study explores the effect of varying cash endowments on bidding behavior in auction experiments conducted in a developing country. Our results suggest that cash endowment levels can have different effects on bidding behavior under second price auction and random nth price auction. In contrast to past studies conducted in developed countries, we generally do not see the presence of positive house money effect in our results. If behavior varies significantly as the cash endowment is varied, then care must be taken when designing auction experiments or when comparing results to other experimental results and theoretical predictions.