Evolution of Poverty During the Crisis in Indonesia

The economic crisis caused a clear deterioration in the welfare of the Indonesian people. In this paper, we examine the appropriate method to compare the change in poverty rates over time. We then piece together a consistent series of estimates of poverty rates during the crisis from various sources, covering a period from February 1996 to February 2002. The reconciliation of these various estimates paints a very reasonable picture and neatly tracks events. The poverty rate increased from the lowest point of approximately 15% at the onset of the crisis in the middle of 1997 to the highest point of approximately 33% nearing the end of 1998. This maximum increase in poverty rate during the crisis of 18 percentage points implies that approximately 36 million additional people were pushed into absolute poverty due to the crisis. After the peak point, the poverty rate started to decline again and reached the pre-crisis level of approximately 15% at the end of 1999, implying that the lost time in poverty reduction due to the crisis was approximately 2.5years. However, the poverty rate after this point appears to have fluctuated. During 2001 and early 2002, poverty was on the rise again.     

Assessing Poverty Trends in Indonesia by International Poverty Lines

Indonesia has made well-documented and drastic progress in raising average incomes and reducing poverty. This article adds to the literature by providing a complementary perspective of poverty between 1984 and 2011. We discuss the evolution of poverty in Indonesia using international poverty lines—$1.25 per person per day (in 2005 purchasing power parity dollars) and $2.00 per day, and we add $10.00 per day. We generate estimates of poverty since 1984 and make projections based on various trends in growth and inequality. We find that Indonesia has the potential to become a high-income country by around 2025 and end $1.25-per-day and $2.00-perday poverty by 2030, but this will require strong economic growth and favourable changes in distribution. Looking ahead, the end of poverty in Indonesia may mean that a large proportion of the population will remain vulnerable to poverty for some time to come, suggesting that public policy priorities will need to balance insurance and risk-management mechanisms with more ‘traditional’ poverty policy.     

Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis

It is well known that the economic crisis in Indonesia has caused the poverty rate to increase significantly. The present study finds, not only that the poverty rate increased significantly, but also that much of the increase was due to a large increase in the chronic poor category (i.e. the poor who have expected consumption below the poverty line and most likely will stay poor in the near future). Furthermore, the present study also finds that the proportion of households that have high vulnerability to poverty has more than doubled since the economic crisis. As a result, the proportion of the total vulnerable group (the current poor plus the high vulnerability group) has jumped from less than one-fifth of the population before the crisis to more than one-third after the crisis.     

Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia

Covid-19 has infected and will continue to infect millions of people all over the world. The economic impact is predicted to be large and millions of people will be pushed into poverty. In this paper, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on poverty in Indonesia. The economic impact is expected to be severe, reducing the economic growth rate projected for 2020 from about 5% to between 4.2% and –3.5%. We find that under the best-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase from 9.2% in September 2019 to 9.7% by the end of 2020, pushing 1.3 million more people into poverty. Under the worst-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase to 16.6%, close to the level seen in 2004 when the poverty rate was 16.7%. This means that 19.7 million more people will become poor, substantially reversing Indonesia’s progress in reducing poverty. The implication is that Indonesia will need to expand its social protection programs to assist the new poor as well as the existing poor.     

我国现行农村贫困标准的完善

进入新世纪,我国农村挟贫效益呈现出递减态势,其原因固然众多,但农村贫困标准的缺陷应是首当其冲,因为贫困标准是监测贫困状态、制定反贫困政策的重要理论依据和行动指南。文章从贫困标准的总体水平、内部构成、动态化、多样化、国际化等方面对我国当前农村贫困标准的缺陷与完善进行了全面探讨。     

Revisiting the Impact of Consumption Growth and Inequality on Poverty in Indonesia during Decentralisation

This article analyses the consumption growth elasticity and inequality elasticity of poverty in Indonesia, with a particular focus on the decentralisation period. Using provincial panel data, we show that the effectiveness of growth in alleviating poverty across provinces was greater during decentralisation—that is, between 2002 and 2010—than at any other point since 1984. The growth elasticity of poverty since 2002 is estimated to have been –2.46, which means that a 10% increase in average consumption per capita would have reduced the poverty rate by almost 25%. However, we also find that rising income inequality negated a quarter to a third of the 5.7-percentage-point reduction in the headcount poverty rate. This increasing inequality has contributed to a lower level of pro-poor growth than that maintained in Indonesia before decentralisation.     

The determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia: evidence from panel data

We use the ‘spell’ approach to identifying poverty and apply an ordered logit model to examine the determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia, categorising households as poor, transient poor (–), transient poor (+) or non-poor. Observing the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) balanced-panel data sets of 2005 and 2007, we found that 28% of poor households are classified as chronically poor (that is, remaining poor in two periods) while 7% of non-poor households are vulnerable to being transient poor (–). Our estimations confirmed that the determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia are educational attainment, the number of household members, physical assets, employment status, health shocks, the microcredit program, access to electricity, and changes in employment sector, employment status and the number of household members. We also found that households in Java–Bali are more vulnerable to negative shocks than those outside Java–Bali.     

Agro-clusters and Rural Poverty: A Spatial Perspective for West Java

Neighbouring economies are likely to influence one another. The concentration of farming activities referred to as an ‘agro-cluster’ generates opportunities for income and employment in a given region and its surrounding area. We analyse the link between poverty rates and agro-clusters by accounting for spatial spillovers. To quantify agroclusters, we employ one input-oriented and one output-oriented measure. Our analysis applies six spatial econometric specifications and focuses on 545 subdistricts of West Java, where about 10% of the population live in poverty. We find that the concentration of agricultural employment substantially reduces poverty in a subdistrict as well as in neighbouring subdistricts. We also find that specialisation in crop outputs has positive impacts on poverty reduction and that localisation externalities are fundamental to agriculture's success. These findings imply that policy interventions may be applied in a spatially selective manner because they will generate spatial-spillover effects on poverty reduction in surrounding areas.     

喜忧并存之35年——中日建交以来的历史回眸

自1972年中国与日本建立正式外交关系,至今已经时逾35载。在这35年中,两国关系不论在政治上、经济上还是文化交流上,都取得了可喜的成绩。但中日关系中的喜与忧从来都是并存的。为消除中日间堪忧问题,双方都应以实际行动恪守中日间3个重要文件精神;积极主动地制止不利于中日友好的各种言行;两国的媒体都不应做鼓动本国民族情绪的工具;日本的领导人及政治家们应该换一种思维方式对待历史认识问题。     

国家行为与产权：一个新制度经济学的分析框架

早期的产权理论侧重于微观层次的分析,较少考虑中观（利益集团）及宏观层次（国家）对产权结构形成的影响及不同层次产权的交互作用的机制。文章从新制度经济学关于国家的定义入手,通过对个体权力与国家、集体行动与国家以及法治化社会与国家的三个层次的分析,提出建立产权制度分析的国家模型,从而论证国家与产权制度变迁的关系。     

Poverty and environmental degradation: A review and analysis of the nexus

There is much controversy surrounding the poverty-environmental degradation nexus. The predominant school of thought argues that poverty is a major cause of environmental degradation and if policy makers want to address environmental issues, then they must first address the poverty problem. Another school of thought argues that a direct link between poverty and environmental degradation is too simplistic and the nexus is governed by a complex web of factors. In this paper, a formal structure for analyzing the complex web of factors is formulated and used to review the existing literature on the links between poverty and the degradation of four natural resource sectors. The analysis highlights the important role institutional and market failure in encouraging agents from various income groups to exhibit unsustainable activities which in turn forces some of the agents to fall into poverty. Another important factor is the role of conflicts between different agents (income groups) in the povertyenvironmental degradation nexus. The analysis also highlights the presence of feedback loops between environmental degradation and poverty.     

Old Age and Poverty in Developing Countries: New Policy Challenges

Almost all developing countries are now experiencing demographic ageing. This paper examines the consequences of ageing for the poor. It assesses the extent to which the poor are participating in demographic ageing, or whether the process is largely restricted to relatively privileged groups. The paper observes that policy and research mainly focus on pensions programs, which have little relevance for most poor older people. It then describes livelihood patterns for poor elders, highlighting the importance of intergenerational exchange. Health policies are also found to largely ignore the needs of this group, and the expansion of private financing presents particular problems.     

A new view of the breakthrough in the Finnish sawmilling industry

Abstract

This paper investigates the development of poverty in Sweden using micro data derived from tax files for the city of Göteborg for the years 1925, 1936, 1947 and 1958, as well as more recent (1983, 1994 and 2003) information. We define poverty as living in a household with a disposable income lower than a poverty line that represents a constant purchasing power all years, as well as poverty lines defined as 60% of contemporary median income. Clear reductions of poverty from 1925 to 1947, as well as from 1958 to 1983, are found. We argue that an important poverty-reducing mechanism during both periods was narrowing earnings disparities. Further, we claim that the poverty reduction from the end of the 1950s to the first half of the 1980s was the outcome of improved transfer systems as well as the establishment of pronounced characteristics of present-day Sweden: the dual earner system.