连续进化金融模型与全局渐进化稳定策略

本文运用达尔文生物进化论思想研究连续交易金融市场选择的动态变化及一般均衡规律。本文发现并证明了:金融资产“赢利”的充要条件是该资产相对股息大于相对股价;投资比例等于股息分发比例的简单混合策略是全局渐近进化稳定策略;在均衡条件下,对应的金融资产价格等于该资产股息占总股息的比例的数学期望;市场变异或金融创新是有效市场形成的动力;全局渐近进化稳定策略业绩可能在某些时候不是最好的,但只要其初始财富大于零,最终将控制市场上的所有财富,而简单混合策略,可能在某个时候业绩优良,然而,在市场存在全局渐近进化稳定策略的条件下,只要其初始财富份额小于1,最终控制的财富趋向于零,从而被市场所淘汰。     

Thought Contagions in the Stock Market

The evolutionary epidemiology of ideas, or thought contagion theory, is introduced and applied to possible examples in the stock market. It is suggested that differences in transmissivity, receptivity, and longevity of belief may contribute numerous irrational influences on the stock market, generating sources of inefficiency. These include a wide variety of mechanisms that may generate both positive and negative market overreactions. The soaring prices of Internet stocks during 1998-1999 are used as an example of how investment ideas correlating with new communication behaviors may affect share prices, and how contagion effects in general can affect the broader market. New avenues of empirical investigation are proposed to test the types of hypotheses presented.     

The concept of routines: some clarifications

The concept of an ‘organisational routine’ is centralto the evolutionary theory of the firm. However, the conceptitself is still unclear. There is not much consensus in theliterature regarding its dimensions, its characteristics andits functions. Despite increasing use of the concept, not muchconceptual progress has been made in recent years, as remarkedby several of the leading writers on the topic. The objectiveof this paper is to contribute to further theoretical developmentof the concept of ‘organisational routine’, andto elaborate the research agenda on organisational routines.Both of these measures contribute to clarifying the conceptand enabling its application in empirical research in the socialsciences, thereby unlocking its potential for understandingorganisations and organisational change. Several problems forconceptual progress are identified. Implications for the conceptualisationof ‘organisational routines’, and for the researchagenda on organisational routines are drawn.     

Charles Sanders Peirce and the Social Ontology of the Firm: A Semiotic Perspective on Human Agency

The ontological framework developed in the article aims to contribute to the social ontology of the firm by achieving three objectives: (i) to provide a well-developed conception of the human mind and conscience, (ii) to define the role of human agency in an evolutionary context and (iii) to highlight the importance of semiosis for the emergence of social structures with an emphasis on the concept of the firm as a social entity. Peirce’s semiotic conception of mind and consciousness provides insights for combining human signifying practices and social emergent properties. Thereupon, the semiotic attributions of the human mind may be understood as a basis for the ontological perspective of the firm.     

The Narrow and Broad Approaches to Evolutionary Modeling in Economics

Some models in evolutionary economics rely on direct analogies to genetic evolution, assuming a population of firms with routines, technologies, and strategies on which forces of diversity generation and selection act. This narrow conception can build upon previous findings from evolutionary biology. Broader concepts of evolution allow many or just one adaptive entity, instead of necessarily requiring a population. Thus, an institution or a society can also be understood as an evolutionary entity. Both the narrow and broad approaches have been extensively used in the literature, albeit in different literature traditions. I provide an overview of the conception and development of both approaches to evolutionary modeling, and argue that a generalization is needed to realize the full potential of evolutionary modeling.     

On positional consumption and technological innovation: an agent-based model

Positional behaviour is arguably a source of social externalities. Remedies for this market failure are defended by some authors and rejected by others. One of the issues discussed is the role that the competition for positional goods may have in generating technological innovation. This article aims to contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of this process through the use of an agent-based model. Simulations show a plausible dynamics of the process of technological innovation as generated by consumption of positional nature. An interpretation of the results in the scope of the policy discussion in question is provided. The influence of key factors such as income inequality, the materialization of the Hirsch conjecture, and characteristics of the network of relative preferences, is analised. We also frame the potential interest of positional consumption and this model in particular in the context of the ongoing discussion among evolutionary economists on the behaviour of demand.     

预期利润、企业家精神与技术创新

技术创新对经济发展具有重要作用,它是演化经济学研究的重要领域.演化经济学将经济发展和产业变迁看成是一个动态的、非均衡的演化过程,但是也强调动态稳定的重要性.本文是在演化博弈的框架下,基于对演化稳定概念的分析,阐述在不同的技术创新战略下,预期利润、企业家精神对于技术创新的重要影响.     

A survey of evolutionary policy: normative and positive dimensions

We explore public policy from the perspective of evolutionary analysis. Potential entry points for developing a normative evolutionary policy theory are examined, which involves a critical examination of the related idea of “evolutionary progress”. The meaning of evolutionary policy is next studied from two different, normative and positive angles: namely, policy design informed by evolutionary thinking; and policy-making and politics as an evolutionary process. Several examples are provided to discuss the value of evolutionary thinking for policy, including in the context of the current economic crisis. Next, evolutionary policy is compared with policy advice coming from two dominant schools of policy analysis, namely neoclassical economics and public choice theory. We conclude that evolutionary thinking offers a distinct and useful perspective on public policy change and design. Nevertheless, there is a need for more synthesis and coherence among different studies as well as for policy experiments and in-depth empirical studies.     

Market failure vs. system failure as a rationale for economic policy? A critique from an evolutionary perspective

This paper reconsiders the explanation of economic policy from an evolutionary economics perspective. It contrasts the neoclassical equilibrium notions of market and government failure with the dominant evolutionary neo-Schumpeterian and Austrian-Hayekian perceptions. Based on this comparison, the paper criticizes the fact that neoclassical reasoning still prevails in non-equilibrium evolutionary economics when economic policy issues are examined. This is more than surprising, since proponents of evolutionary economics usually view their approach as incompatible with its neoclassical counterpart. In addition, it is shown that this “fallacy of failure thinking” even finds its continuation in the alternative concept of “system failure” with which some evolutionary economists try to explain and legitimate policy interventions in local, regional or national innovation systems. The paper argues that in order to prevent the otherwise fruitful and more realistic evolutionary approach from undermining its own criticism of neoclassical economics and to create a consistent as well as objective evolutionary policy framework, it is necessary to eliminate the equilibrium spirit. Finally, the paper delivers an alternative evolutionary explanation of economic policy which is able to overcome the theory-immanent contradiction of the hitherto evolutionary view on this subject.     

Evolvability and progress in evolutionary economics

This paper develops an account of evolutionary progress for use in the field of evolutionary economics. Previous work is surveyed and a new account set out, based on the idea of evolvability as it has been used recently in evolutionary developmental biology. The biological underpinnings of this idea are explained using examples of a series of phenomena that influence the evolvability of biological systems. It is further argued that biological and economic selection pressures and developmental processes are sufficiently similar to make this biological concept useful in economics. The new account is defended against a number of common objections to the notion of progress in evolving systems, including the claim that all stipulated measures of evolutionary progress are essentially arbitrary and the idea that economic evolutionary progress might not accord with the preferences of economic actors. It is argued that progress, understood as an increase in evolvability over time, is both philosophically well-justified and provides useful predictive and explanatory resources to those seeking to understand and manipulate evolving economic systems.     

伦敦金融中心发展机制对上海的启示——一个关系地理学的视角

中国（上海）自贸区开设后,上海的国际金融中心建设面临新的机遇。本文试图从＂金融大爆炸＂改革后伦敦金融中心复兴的案例中,以关系地理学为视角,分析归纳伦敦金融中心的发展机制。全球经济金融一体化的现代经济中,金融中心的内涵发生了变化,从强调空间区位的金融集聚逐渐演化为全球金融生产和服务的节点和枢纽。伦敦作为全球领先的金融中心,它的发展机制迎合了金融中心演化的趋势,并在这个过程中逐渐壮大,为上海国际金融中心的建设提供了借鉴。     

The use of modeling tools for policy in evolutionary environments

This is a position paper on the possibilities of informing the (economic and environmental) policy debate by using quantitative evolutionary models. I argue that an evolutionary worldview implies that the existing quantitative modeling tools used for policy analysis are problematic. Then I summarize the main elements of an evolutionary way of analysis, and the way in which it can be incorporated into quantitative models. I conclude with an outline of a proposal for how to apply the ideas in the analysis of energy transitions.     

The evolutionary firm and Cournot's Dilemma

Recently, competence/capability has been introduced as a rivaland as a complement to the idea of transaction-costs as thefoundation for a modern theory of the firm. However, while thecompetence-based approach may be inspired by evolutionary economics,it does not, in its current form, provide an evolutionary theoryof the firm. To transform this competence-based approach intoan evolutionary theory, the connection between the firm andVeblen's concept of social knowledge is more fully developed.Once established, the evolutionary theory of the firm is utilisedto bypass Marshall's reconciliation problem and solve Cournot'sDilemma.     

On the role of intentionality in evolutionary economic change

One important challenge to evolutionary economics consists of tackling the paradoxical relationship between purposeful human action and the ‘blindness’ of evolutionary processes. We argue that the theoretical treatment of intended action is a prerequisite for venturing beyond the phenomenological explanation of evolutionary processes. If so, evolutionary processes are not (at least completely) ‘blind’. Of course, not every change in a society is a consequence of purposeful action. However, even if not every action were intended and not every novelty were the consequence of pursuing particular goals, the evolution of individual intentions and pursued goals (micro-level) is a key process in explaining economic change. In this context, an evolutionary efficiency criterion is proposed.     

Innovation diffusion,employment and wage policy

Contrary to most writings in the field of evolutionary economics which have a strong microeconomic flavor, here amacroeconomic evolutionary model will be presented in order to deal with themacroeconomic employment effect of technical change where there is just one old and one new technology. Several authors who favour an evolutionary approach to the theory of technical change share an optimistic view with respect to the macroeconomic employment effect of technical change. In the paper we are dealing with the question of whether this optimistic view is a necessary result of an evolutionary approach to technical change or rather of some other characteristic of the models used. It is shown that the evolutionary approach to technical change is not inherently optimistic or pessimistic with respect to the employment effects. Rather it is the labour market behaviour that will decide, whether the employment effects of technical change are positive, negligible or even negative.     

The Emptiness of Peasant “Rationality”: “Demirationality” as an Alternative

This article discusses consumption as a social process that is part of social provisioning and is in an evolutionary interplay with other social processes. The analysis provides grounds for a context-specific research that explores consumption in the context of a culture-nature life process, and draws on material from various disciplines. The article seeks to contribute to the literature on social provisioning as an organizing concept in heterodox economics. The first section explains what is meant by social process and delineates its elements. The second section formulates a categorization of social processes, and locates a consumption process within a system of culture-nature life processes. The rest of the article delineates the elements of the consumption process, providing illustrations based on literature from various disciplines. Specifically, the third section discusses consumption activities. The fourth section discusses institutions and systems of provision of goods and services. The fifth section applies the concept of habits of life and thought to the consumption process. Finally, the article concludes that the formulated analysis transcends dualisms such as social-economic, cultural-material, society-nature, and micro-macro, and draws implications for heterodox economics.     

J.A. Schumpeter and T.B. Veblen on economic evolution: the dichotomy between statics and dynamics

At present, the discussion on the dichotomy between statics and dynamics is resolved by concentrating on its mathematical meaning. Yet, a simple formalisation masks the underlying methodological discussion. Overcoming this limitation, the paper discusses Schumpeter's and Veblen's viewpoint on dynamic economic systems as systems generating change from within. It contributes to an understanding on their ideas of how economics could become an evolutionary science and on their contributions to elaborate an evolutionary economics. It confronts Schumpeter's with Veblen's perspective on evolutionary economics and provides insight into their evolutionary economic theorising by discussing their ideas on the evolution of capitalism.     

A note on evolutionary stability of Bertrand equilibrium

It is shown that the equilibrium notion of an evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) does have predictive power for standard models of Bertrand competition. This is in contrast to a recent claim by Qin and Stuart (1997). The claim is based on the observation that the solution concept ESS behaves discontinuously when finite (discrete) action games approach an infinite (continuous) action game in the limit. Furthermore, it is argued that from a model-theoretic point of view evolutionary stability in prices (i.e. in the Bertrand model) is quite different from evolutionary stability in quantities (i.e. in the Cournot model).     

The Rate of Change in Evolutionary Systems and Evolutionary Economic Modeling

Evolutionary economics seeks to model socio-economic reality as an evolutionary system. This powerful approach entails the implication of the continuous loss of information through the evolutionary process. The implication corresponds to evolutionary biology, although the systems in evolutionary economics are different from those in evolutionary biology. The issue of the loss of information has not been extensively studied in economics. Many open questions remain: Which knowledge is lost under what circumstances? Can loss of information be harmful to the socio-economic system as a whole in the presence of runaway dynamics caused by, for example, network externalities? How can the development of knowledge in economic systems be studied? The present article examines these questions and more.     

Schumpeter's theory of economic evolution: a Darwinian interpretation

A general Darwinian framework is employed to arrive at an interpretation of Schumpeter's work that brings out clearly its specific evolutionary aspects. Schumpeter's theory of economic evolution is seen to be still highly relevant to evolutionary economics, because it sheds light on some fundamental issues: the relationship between evolutionary theory and equilibrium analysis, the usefulness of Darwinian theory for economics, and the precise nature of the evolutionary forces at work in economic systems.