城乡低保对失业人员劳动意愿的影响 ——基于CFPS2014数据

本文使用CFPS2014数据,探究城乡低保对失业人员劳动意愿的影响。使用OLS及Probit估计结果表明:总体而言城乡低保对失业人群劳动意愿无显著影响,仅农村最低生活保障制度对于失业人员的工作意愿有着显著负向影响。为了克服样本选择问题,本文进一步采用了倾向值匹配方法,并使用了卡尺内最邻匹配和核匹配两种匹配方法增强结论的稳健性。基本结果显示,我国的城乡低保对于失业人员的劳动意愿均无显著影响。     

东盟五国通货膨胀的成因分析

本文通过建立Pooled Probit模型,对东盟五国1972年以来经历的26次通货膨胀周期和总体经济环境进行分析,探讨五类宏观经济变量对通货膨胀发生上升概率的贡献率.估计结果显示经济增长、当期石油价格、本国政府前期的财政赤字和美国通货膨胀是这五国通胀上升的主要推动力量.     

基于明瑟收益模型的城镇居民职业教育收益率研究

教育收益率的高低既是教育对于经济发展作用的具体体现，也是引导个人投资教育的重要依据。本文运用明瑟收益率模型对2005年我国城镇居民的个人职业教育收益率进行了测算估计，并对造成差异的原因进行了分析。研究指出，劳动力市场的流动、非农业经济的发展以及职业教育的发展是推动我国城镇居民教育收益率提高的重要力量。     

婚姻市场的教育分层与女性人力资本投资

在经济转轨时期,中国女性的劳动力供给表现出"非理性"现象:在劳动力市场的性别歧视越来越严重的情况下,女性人力资本投资却不降反升.婚姻市场的教育匹配和分层趋势,说明女性人力资本投资不但在劳动力市场上有收益,在婚姻市场上也有收益.劳动力市场上的性别歧视导致女性人力资本投资在劳动力市场的收益率下降,但只要这一投资行为在婚姻市场的收益率上升足以弥补这种损失,女性增加其人力资本投资就是一种理性的选择.     

教育扩张能否改善收入差距？——基于2014年云南省流动人口动态监测调查数据的分析

教育作为人力资本形成的主要因素直接影响个体收入,但对欠发达地区流动人口收入差距的影响鲜有研究。基于2014年云南省流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用工具变量法纠正内生性估计偏误后,分位数回归结果显示,教育收益率显著为正,但随着收入水平条件分位点的提高,教育收益率呈现“U型”变化。即尽管教育扩张能够提升收入整体水平,并不能有效改善收入差距,最终将导致“均值高、方差大”的“二元分配格局”。这意味着仅仅依靠增加教育经费实现的教育扩张并不能有效改善流动人口的收入差距,而应谋求由注重速度和规模的外延式扩张向注重质量和差别对待的内涵式扩张转变。     

我国货币和银行共生危机发生概率测算研究

本文通过构建发展中国家货币危机和银行危机共生基本面的Probit和Logit模型,对我国20世纪90年代以来共生性货币银行危机的发生概率情况进行近似模拟.危机发生及演进的趋势大致为:以1993年和1999年为分界点,1990年以来中国货币危机与银行危机共生概率总体上呈现由正"U"型向倒"U"型转变的分布特征,2008年出现微弱反转;样本期内我国共生危机发生概率总体处于[0.25%,2.5%]的区间范围内,但危机生成的结构分析却表明,这种极低的概率事实上为近年来我国高速的经济增长所覆盖.另外,发展中国家货币银行危机共生的基本规律显示出:GDP增长率、货币增长率、金融自由化和汇率制度对共生危机生成影响显著;金融自由化条件下共生危机发生的概率大干非自由化时期,无论自由化还是非自由化阶段,其他汇率制引发共生危机的概率均明显大于固定汇率制.     

中国铅期货最优套期保值比率估计及实证分析

本文通过运用基于OLS估计模型、BGARCH模型和ECM模型,对中国铅期货市场的最优套期保值比率进行估计,并对以上各种方法的套期保值效果进行了比较分析,经过套期保值的组合收益率方差都比没经过套期保值的组合收益率方差小,说明用套期保值是有效的.且基于BGARCH的动态套期保值比基于OLS的静态套期保值有更好的保值效果.     

涨跌幅限制与投资者过度反应:一个基于均衡价格估计的经验研究

本文修正了 Sutrick提出的涨跌停限制发生时证券均衡价格的估计方式 ,新估计方式可降低估计误差。本文利用均衡价格估计方法 ,以中国股市 A股股票为研究对象 ,研究了涨跌停发生时投资者是否存在过度反应。结论是 :涨停后次日的平均异常收益率显著为负 ,而跌停后次日的平均异常收益率显著为正 ,证实中国股市存在比较明显的过度反应现象     

抽样技术在旅游外汇收入评估中的可靠性研究

以2011年我国31个省市自治区和2012年部分省份的旅游外汇收入统计数据为基础,运用多种估计方法,估计了2012年我国旅游外汇总收入、抽样方差及在95%的概率保证程度下旅游外汇收入总量的置信区间。经过对几种方法的比较发现,PPS抽样估计值与当年的外汇总值相当,说明在总体单元差异大的情况下,技术上采用PPS抽样方法,可以以较低的成本完成更精确的估计。     

学历对劳动者创业决定的影响——基于中国微观数据的实证研究

文章基于中国综合社会调查数据库(China General Social Survey,CGSS) 2010、2012和2015年的调查数据,采用Probit模型探讨了个体受教育年限对创业选择的影响,并引入性别、家庭背景两个调节变量分析其对二者关系的影响。由于模型存在内生性,选取个体英语水平作为工具变量。研究结果表明:个体的学历对创业倾向有抑制效果,即受教育年限越长,其创业倾向越低;男性个体的受教育年限对其创业行为的抑制效果相较于女性明显减弱;所处家庭背景较好的个体的受教育年限对其创业行为的抑制效果明显增强。文章的研究结论对于我国推动"大众创业,万众创新",制定相关创业鼓励政策具有参考作用。     

Does Education Still Pay Off in Rural China： Revisit the Impact of Education on Off-farm Employment and Wages

The present study considers how education affects off-farm job participation and wages. We use a nationally representative dataset from a survey conducted in 5 provinces, 101 villages and 808 households by the authors in early 2005. The empirical results show that educational attainment, skill training and years of experience of rural residents have positive, statistically significant effects on off-farm employment. The average return to a year of education is 7percent, which is higher than those observed in previous studies. We also find the return to an additional year of schooling to be higher for post-junior high schooling than for junior high and below schooling： 11.8 versus 3.2 percent. We conclude that not only does education still pays off in rural China, but also the rate of return to education is increasing over time.     

Do more highly educated entrepreneurs matter?

This paper uses a unique micro dataset of Chinese private firms surveyed in 2000 to investigate whether having a more highly educated entrepreneur affects a firm's performance. Identifying educational effects has been shown to be empirically challenging because it is difficult to overcome the likely omitted variable bias problem. We use the propensity score matching method to get around this identification problem. Matching results imply that on average, the firms whose owners received higher education had 5.2–5.8 percentage points higher return on equity, 115–126 percentage points higher profits, and 102–111 percentage points higher sales revenue, respectively, than firms that did not have higher educated entrepreneurs.     

寒门难出贵子?——基于“家庭财富-教育投资-贫富差距”的实证研究

文章首次从教育选择的角度出发,探讨了人力资本投资与收入差距之间的关系,作者首先建立了教育回报的代际交迭模型,推断出富裕家庭教育回报率高这个事实会拉大社会的贫富差距。作者使用1992年至2009年的中国城镇住户调查数据对理论推论进行了论证,实证结果表明出身"寒门"的子女期望教育回报率更低,这拉大了与富裕家庭群体的收入差距,也是"寒门难出贵子"的原因。自2001年来,家庭因素带来的教育回报差异能够解释19.1%的城镇居民收入差距,引入工具变量的结果表明,真实的情况可能更加严重。作者进一步模拟了"新常态"下的贫富差距状况,结果表明,经济潜在增速下降会使得基尼系数扩大6.1%。     

Changes over time in the return to education in urban China: Conventional and ORU estimates

Studies of the return to education in urban China have reported that this has increased over time, and that females typically have a higher return than males. In this paper we adopt a framework provided by the over education/required education/under education literature, and the decomposition developed by Chiswick and Miller (2008), to investigate the reasons for these findings. The finding by Chen and Hamori (2009), from analysis of data for 2004 and 2006, of the return to schooling for males exceeding that for females, is also examined using this decomposition.     

Rates of return to education and income distribution

Summary This paper examines the relationship between rate of return to education and income distribution with the help of cross-nation data on 30 developing and developed countries. The results indicate that the higher income groups in the society benefit the higher the rate of return to any level of education, and the bottom 40 percent and the middle 40 percent income groups lose; and the disadvantage for the poor income groups is the least at the primary level of education. As higher rates of return to education suggest higher levels of income inequalities, rapid expansion of the education system may reduce income inequalities through decline in rates of return to education. Secondly, it is also argued here that since high income groups benefit from all levels of education, education investments targeted specifically towards the poor may be preferred to overall investment in education.The author is Consultant, the World Bank, Washington D.C., 20433 (USA), while on leave from the National Institute of Educational Planning and Administration, New Delhi. The incisive comments of George Psacharopoulos, Rati Ram, and the Editor(s) of this Journal on earlier versions of this study are gratefully acknowledged. However, the views expressed here and the errors that remain are the responsibility of the author alone and should not necessarily be attributed to anyone else, including the World Bank.     

学校教育投资、家庭内知识外部性与农户收入回报：来自苏北农村的证据

本文运用苏北农村农户层面的微观数据,并结合农业生产和农户家庭特征,来估计农民的教育回报率。农户以家庭为单位进行联合劳动的特征导致农户收入贡献的不可分性以及家庭内教育投资具有正的外部性,使得个人教育投资回报小于家庭回报。然而,由于家庭内部更多成员的教育投资的外部性具有递减的特征以及婚姻市场存在的匹配现象,可能会出现由知识拥挤带来的教育投资过度问题。本文的实证分析表明：农户家庭内成员的教育投资的确存在外部性;教育投资回报会随着受教育人数的增加而减少;农村婚姻中存在教育匹配效应;户主配偶的教育投资存在动态不足。     

Economic returns to schooling in urban China: OLS and the instrumental variables approach

This paper examines economic returns to schooling in urban China using ordinary least square (OLS) and instrumental variable (IV) methodologies. First, we find that OLS estimates of the returns to education are lower in China than in other transition economies, whereas IV estimates are higher in China. Second, we find that OLS, a method for estimating the returns to education without control for endogeneity bias, may underestimate the true rates of return for men. In addition, if we do not control for endogeneity bias and the sample selection bias, we may further underestimate the true rates of return for women. Finally, we find that OLS estimates of the returns to education for men are slightly higher than for women. The IV estimates for women are higher than those for men, and this difference increases after correcting for selectivity biases.     

分成制教育金融制度模拟实证研究——以分成租佃制为借鉴

信息不对称理论是分成制教育金融制度的理论基础。分成租佃制的运行,为分成制教育金融制度提供了实践上的证明。文章选取回报率较高的特定投资对象为例,模仿分成租佃制下的投资回收分析方法,探讨了纯“分成制”下的分成比例状况。研究表明,教育金融契约的性质选择与期限选择,都会影响契约主体的“风险-收益”评价。这一结论,是在一定的假定下得出的。分成制的大面积实施还有赖于放松假定,不断出产趋于实际的研究成果。     

Declining rates of return to education: evidence for Indonesia

In 1977, American labour economist Richard Freeman documented a fall in the return to education in the US, and attributed it to the expansion of the country's education sector. This article shows, similarly, that the returns to education in Indonesia generally declined between 1993 and 2007–08, following the large-scale expansion of the sector. The changes, however, were reasonably modest, and sometimes differed between males and females. This suggests that both recent growth in the education sector (which by itself could depress the return to education) and uneven growth across the Indonesian economy (which could differentially increase demand for graduates at various levels of education) have played a role in determining the pattern of change over time in the profitability of education in Indonesia.     

Women's higher education in Japan: Family background,economic factors,and the Equal Employment Opportunity Law

Since the mid-1980s there has been a striking increase in the propensity of young Japanese women to attend four-year universities. During this same period, the Japanese Diet, in 1985, passed the Equal Employment Opportunity Law, which focused on improving women's access to career employment. This paper uses micro-data from the Japanese Panel Survey on Consumers (JPSC) to investigate the importance of socio-economic and demographic factors, as well as the EEO Law, in determining the higher education decisions of young women in Japan.We find that one of the most important factors in determining whether or not a young woman attends university is whether or not her mother attended university. Other important factors we identify include whether or not her father attended university, whether or not the young woman attended juku in high school, family income, and attendance at private secondary school. Data limitations prevent drawing strong conclusions about the role of the passage of the EEO Law, but our results suggest that the passage of the law was associated with an increase in the propensity of young women to choose university over junior college.