Liquidity traps with global Taylor Rules

An important theme in the writings of Jess Benhabib is the global stability of equilibrium in monetary economies. A key result emerging from his research is that Taylor-type interest rate feedback rules that are bounded below by zero can lead to unintended liquidity traps. The present paper shows that even if the interest rate rule is not bounded below by zero, that is, even if the government could credibly commit to a globally active Taylor rule, self-fulfilling liquidity traps cannot be ruled out. This result is shown to obtain in models with flexible and sticky prices and under continuous and discrete time.     

开放经济条件下中国泰勒规则及其拓展形式的实证研究

文章从标准泰勒规则的内涵和适用条件出发,应用中国1995年第1季度到2010年第1季度的数估计了标准的线性泰勒规则,逐步从利率平滑、前瞻性变量、汇率因素和资产价格等方面放宽适用条件,根据开放经济条件下的货币政策数据对泰勒规则的拓展模型进行实证检验并验证泰勒规则在我国的适应性。     

Fiscal Deficits, Taylor Rules, and Price Dynamics

This paper reconsiders the issue of price level determination under interest rate feedback rules using an optimizing general equilibrium framework with overlapping generations and flexible prices. The analysis shows that under fiscal shocks, monetary policy commitment to instrument rules of the Taylor-type might be insufficient for inflation control. It is also demonstrated that the existence of a unique stable equilibrium path for the price level does not require active monetary rules.The author wishes to thank an anonymous referee, Barbara Annicchiarico, Giuseppe De Arcangelis, Giancarlo Marini, and Giorgio Rodano for useful comments and suggestions.The usual disclaimer applies.     

Testing the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America

Exchange rates forecasting performance is tested by a model which incorporates endogenous monetary policy through a Taylor rule reaction function. Other usual monetary and equilibrium empirical exchange rate models are also evaluated for comparison purposes. Predictability is tested by comparing the models to a benchmark random walk specification. We contribute to the recent literature in many ways. First, we include models of forward-looking endogenous monetary policy to the exchange rate forecasting exercise, the Taylor model. Second, our data, set across countries, is uniform in terms of economies adopting both inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate. Third, our study sheds light on exchange rate determinants for emerging economies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico. Our results show strong predictability evidence for the Taylor model and indicate that assuming models of endogenous monetary policy and the present value of expected fundamentals is a rewarding strategy to model exchange rate determination.     

Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty

In this paper we examine the prevalence of data, specification, and parameter uncertainty in the formation of simple rules that mimic monetary policymaking decisions. Our approach is to build real-time data sets and simulate a real-time policy-setting environment in which we assume that policy is captured by movements in the actual federal funds rate, and then to assess what sorts of policy rule models and what sorts of data best explain what the Federal Reserve actually did. This approach allows us not only to track the performance of alternative rules over time (hence facilitating a type of model selection among competing rules), but also to more generally assess the importance of the data revision process in the formation of macroeconomic time series models. From the perspective of real-time data, our results suggest that the use of data that are erroneous, in the sense that they were not available at the time decisions could have been made based on forecasts from the rules, can lead to the selection of quantitatively different models. From the perspective of finding a rule that best approximates what the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) has actually done (and hence from the perspective of finding a rule that best approximates what the Fed will do in the future), we find that (i) our version of “calibration” is better than naïve estimation, although both are dominated by an approach to rule formation based on the use of adaptive least-squares learning; (ii) rules based on data that are not seasonally adjusted are more reliable than those based on seasonally adjusted data; and (iii) rules based solely on preliminary data do not minimize mean square forecast error risk. In particular, early releases of data can be noisy, and for this reason it is useful to also use data that have been revised when making decisions using policy rules.     

International Capital Flows in the Model with Limited Commitment and Incomplete Markets

Recent literature has proposed two alternative types of financial frictions, i.e., limited commitment and incomplete markets, to explain the empirical patterns of international capital flows between developed and developing countries in the past two decades. This paper integrates these two frictions into a two-country overlapping-generations framework to facilitate a direct comparison of their respective effects. In our model, limited commitment distorts the investment made by agents with different productivity, which creates a wedge between the interest rates on equity capital vs. credit capital; while incomplete markets distort the investment among projects with different riskiness, which creates a wedge between the risk-free rate and the mean rate of return to risky capital. We show that the two approaches are observationally equivalent with respect to their implications for international capital flows, production efficiency, and aggregate output.     

环境规则、外资参与程度和贸易竞争力——来自中国工业的实证研究

本文将外商直接投资因素引入Cole等(2005)的分析框架,构建模型实证分析环境规则、外资参与程度等因素对贸易竞争力的影响。实证分析得出以下结论:贸易竞争力较强的行业大多属于低排放行业,中国在国际产业转移中没有成为污染产业避难所;环境规则强度对贸易竞争力具有U型效应;外资参与程度对贸易竞争力具有显著的正向影响;人力资本、资本密度并不是中国工业贸易竞争力的主要来源。本文的研究为中国制定合理环境规则、提升贸易竞争力提供了有益的启示。     

基于Logistic模型的深圳企业参与排污权交易意愿分析

通过问卷访问的形式,调查了深圳市776家试点企业参与排污权交易的意愿,结果显示,90%的受访企业能够认识到排污权交易的正面涵义,73%的企业有参与排污权交易的意愿。运用Logistic模型分析了影响深圳市企业参与意愿的主要因素,在问卷设计的多项因素中,企业成立时间、政策了解程度、分配方式的合理性判断、优惠政策的满意程度、有偿使用机制的选择以及对企业经营影响的预判能够显著影响深圳市企业参与排污权交易的意愿。     

Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union: A Short-Run Analysis

This article challenges the conventional result according to which an instrument-independent central bank able to strictly commit to price stability makes fiscal constraints unnecessary. We present a model of a monetary union with heterogeneous members where the inefficient policy mix resulting from the lack of coordination between the common monetary policy and national fiscal policies incites the governments to appoint excessively liberal delegates to the central bank's board. We characterize the fiscal restraints necessary to restore the central bank's ability to deliver the most desirable degree of price stability. It appears that even country-specific and state-contingent restraints may be counterproductive for some member states.     

基于有限理性重复博弈理论的碳配额分配机制研究*

在分析欧洲碳交易体系祖父制分配方法的基础上,本文以博弈论作为不完全信息条件下设计碳配额分配机制的理论基础,立足于深圳碳交易体系的实际情况,应用有限理性重复博弈理论,对深圳制造业碳配额分配进行了机制设计和实验设计,希望能为我国碳排放交易体系配额分配机制的发展提供参考。     

有限责任公司股权强制执行若干问题研究

在人民法院的执行案件中,申请人可以申请人民法院对被执行人持有的在有限责任公司的股权进行强制执行,将股权变现,偿付申请人的债权。虽然股权的强制执行是合理的,也是必要的,但是,由于股权的强制执行必然影响公司原有股东、公司债权人、公司自身的利益,因此在人民法院对有限责任公司股权进行强制执行的时候,要充分顾及各方的利益,最大限度地缩小股权强制执行所带来的负面影响。     

节能减排 全民参与

深入开展节能减排工作,对于缓解首都人口资源环境矛盾、实现首都经济社会又好又快发展具有十分重要的意义。为了进一步提高政府决策的科学化、民主化水平,了解市民对节能减排技术推广的需求,加大市民对节能减排技术推广工作的监督,市发改委于2007年11月21日-12月11日,将《2008年北京市节能节水减排技术推广计划》向社会公示,征求公众的意见和建议。     

论公共危机管理中的社区参与

社区作为城市社会的基层组织,在公共危机管理中承担基础性作用.广泛的社区参与是有效预防和应对危机的重要保证.西方国家较为重视社区在公共危机管理中的作用,并逐步形成以社区为基础的危机管理模式.我国也应进一步加强公共危机管理中的社区建设,包括加大政府的指导与支持;维持社区应急主体的运转;分步有序地开展社区应急工作等.     

推位让治:社会组织参与社会治理路径

基于法治的多元主体共同治理已成为我国社会治理创新的普遍实践。在众多地方多元共治的实践中,存在多种实现路径,"推位让治"是其中的一种。它以"推典型让项目"、"推模式让空间"、"推规范让职权"的方式,政府让渡空间和职权,培育和推动社会组织参与社会治理,实现多元共治的治理格局。     

Rules versus discretion in Central Bank communication

We propose a theoretical framework to study Central Bank communication and to assess the benefits of commitment to a disclosure rule. Our model features a coordination environment, where agents have dispersed private information and their interests are not aligned with those of the Central Bank. Public information can lead to undesirable coordination among agents. We show that anything goes when the Central Bank cannot commit; both its most and least preferred outcomes can be supported in equilibrium, and so can anything in between. We find that commitment does not necessarily implement the Central Bank's most preferred outcome. However, the Central Bank can avoid the least desirable outcomes by choosing an information structure with only two messages that act as action recommendations for agents. Furthermore, our results suggest a higher correlation between fundamentals and outcomes under commitment.     

宁夏全域旅游发展中的社区参与模式研究——以海原县李俊乡为例

宁夏作为全国第二个创建全域旅游示范(省)区,旅游发展目前进入了快车道.中卫市海原县李俊乡旅游资源丰富,在全域旅游发展中,坚持社区参与实现精准扶贫、 全民参与和共享理念等意义.为有力促进全域旅游发展,李俊乡应采取农户直接参与旅游经营服务,与精准扶贫相结合;土地租用、 流转和入股的社区参与模式.