Liquidity traps with global Taylor Rules

An important theme in the writings of Jess Benhabib is the global stability of equilibrium in monetary economies. A key result emerging from his research is that Taylor-type interest rate feedback rules that are bounded below by zero can lead to unintended liquidity traps. The present paper shows that even if the interest rate rule is not bounded below by zero, that is, even if the government could credibly commit to a globally active Taylor rule, self-fulfilling liquidity traps cannot be ruled out. This result is shown to obtain in models with flexible and sticky prices and under continuous and discrete time.     

Fiscal Deficits, Taylor Rules, and Price Dynamics

This paper reconsiders the issue of price level determination under interest rate feedback rules using an optimizing general equilibrium framework with overlapping generations and flexible prices. The analysis shows that under fiscal shocks, monetary policy commitment to instrument rules of the Taylor-type might be insufficient for inflation control. It is also demonstrated that the existence of a unique stable equilibrium path for the price level does not require active monetary rules.The author wishes to thank an anonymous referee, Barbara Annicchiarico, Giuseppe De Arcangelis, Giancarlo Marini, and Giorgio Rodano for useful comments and suggestions.The usual disclaimer applies.     

Testing the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America

Exchange rates forecasting performance is tested by a model which incorporates endogenous monetary policy through a Taylor rule reaction function. Other usual monetary and equilibrium empirical exchange rate models are also evaluated for comparison purposes. Predictability is tested by comparing the models to a benchmark random walk specification. We contribute to the recent literature in many ways. First, we include models of forward-looking endogenous monetary policy to the exchange rate forecasting exercise, the Taylor model. Second, our data, set across countries, is uniform in terms of economies adopting both inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate. Third, our study sheds light on exchange rate determinants for emerging economies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico. Our results show strong predictability evidence for the Taylor model and indicate that assuming models of endogenous monetary policy and the present value of expected fundamentals is a rewarding strategy to model exchange rate determination.     

International Capital Flows in the Model with Limited Commitment and Incomplete Markets

Recent literature has proposed two alternative types of financial frictions, i.e., limited commitment and incomplete markets, to explain the empirical patterns of international capital flows between developed and developing countries in the past two decades. This paper integrates these two frictions into a two-country overlapping-generations framework to facilitate a direct comparison of their respective effects. In our model, limited commitment distorts the investment made by agents with different productivity, which creates a wedge between the interest rates on equity capital vs. credit capital; while incomplete markets distort the investment among projects with different riskiness, which creates a wedge between the risk-free rate and the mean rate of return to risky capital. We show that the two approaches are observationally equivalent with respect to their implications for international capital flows, production efficiency, and aggregate output.     

环境规则、外资参与程度和贸易竞争力——来自中国工业的实证研究

本文将外商直接投资因素引入Cole等(2005)的分析框架,构建模型实证分析环境规则、外资参与程度等因素对贸易竞争力的影响。实证分析得出以下结论:贸易竞争力较强的行业大多属于低排放行业,中国在国际产业转移中没有成为污染产业避难所;环境规则强度对贸易竞争力具有U型效应;外资参与程度对贸易竞争力具有显著的正向影响;人力资本、资本密度并不是中国工业贸易竞争力的主要来源。本文的研究为中国制定合理环境规则、提升贸易竞争力提供了有益的启示。     

基于Logistic模型的深圳企业参与排污权交易意愿分析

通过问卷访问的形式,调查了深圳市776家试点企业参与排污权交易的意愿,结果显示,90%的受访企业能够认识到排污权交易的正面涵义,73%的企业有参与排污权交易的意愿。运用Logistic模型分析了影响深圳市企业参与意愿的主要因素,在问卷设计的多项因素中,企业成立时间、政策了解程度、分配方式的合理性判断、优惠政策的满意程度、有偿使用机制的选择以及对企业经营影响的预判能够显著影响深圳市企业参与排污权交易的意愿。     

Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union: A Short-Run Analysis

This article challenges the conventional result according to which an instrument-independent central bank able to strictly commit to price stability makes fiscal constraints unnecessary. We present a model of a monetary union with heterogeneous members where the inefficient policy mix resulting from the lack of coordination between the common monetary policy and national fiscal policies incites the governments to appoint excessively liberal delegates to the central bank's board. We characterize the fiscal restraints necessary to restore the central bank's ability to deliver the most desirable degree of price stability. It appears that even country-specific and state-contingent restraints may be counterproductive for some member states.     

Robust Taylor rules under heterogeneity in currency trade

It is demonstrated in this paper that the exchange rate should be included in the Taylor rule when there is heterogeneity in currency trade to have a determinate and least squares learnable rational expectations equilibrium that also is desirable in an inflation rate targeting regime. Moreover, for certain Taylor rule parameterizations, these properties of the interest rate rule are robust against the degree of technical trading in currency trading.     

基于有限理性重复博弈理论的碳配额分配机制研究*

在分析欧洲碳交易体系祖父制分配方法的基础上,本文以博弈论作为不完全信息条件下设计碳配额分配机制的理论基础,立足于深圳碳交易体系的实际情况,应用有限理性重复博弈理论,对深圳制造业碳配额分配进行了机制设计和实验设计,希望能为我国碳排放交易体系配额分配机制的发展提供参考。     

有限责任公司股权强制执行若干问题研究

在人民法院的执行案件中,申请人可以申请人民法院对被执行人持有的在有限责任公司的股权进行强制执行,将股权变现,偿付申请人的债权。虽然股权的强制执行是合理的,也是必要的,但是,由于股权的强制执行必然影响公司原有股东、公司债权人、公司自身的利益,因此在人民法院对有限责任公司股权进行强制执行的时候,要充分顾及各方的利益,最大限度地缩小股权强制执行所带来的负面影响。     

分步引进有限合伙制

创业投资在20世纪中期起源于美国．经过数十年的曲折发展．尤其是80年代以来的迅猛发展．成为推动美国高新技术产业发展的“发动机”。作为创业资本市场的主要组织形式——有限合伙公司的形成与发展是技术创新和金融创新相互作用过程中逐步形成的一种制度安排．适应了高新技术产业发展的特点．有力地推动了美国高新技术产业和经济的发展。美国．有80％的创业投资基金采取有限合伙模式。     

日本环境管理中的公众参与机制

公众参与是日本环境保护史中的一个重要“法定”。80年代以后，在环境管理方面，日本政府通过将公众环境权益法律化、制度化、将公众参与的程序纳入政策制定的过程中等手段进一步加强了社会制衡的作用，从公众参与机制的实施效果看，其对日本环境管理的作用是难以替代的。     

节能减排 全民参与

深入开展节能减排工作,对于缓解首都人口资源环境矛盾、实现首都经济社会又好又快发展具有十分重要的意义。为了进一步提高政府决策的科学化、民主化水平,了解市民对节能减排技术推广的需求,加大市民对节能减排技术推广工作的监督,市发改委于2007年11月21日-12月11日,将《2008年北京市节能节水减排技术推广计划》向社会公示,征求公众的意见和建议。     

网络政治参与对民主的负向作用

伴随着信息技术的迅猛发展,网络打开了民众政治参与的新途径。但由于网络政治参与还存在着参与主体的不平等性、参与的不规范性和欺骗性等问题,在它为民主化进程提供动力与机遇的同时,又给民主的发展带来了巨大的负向作用。作为技术手段的网络是中性的,网络政治参与能否推动民主的进程,不取决于网络自身,而取决于什么人,出于什么目的,怎样使用了它。     

推位让治:社会组织参与社会治理路径

基于法治的多元主体共同治理已成为我国社会治理创新的普遍实践。在众多地方多元共治的实践中,存在多种实现路径,"推位让治"是其中的一种。它以"推典型让项目"、"推模式让空间"、"推规范让职权"的方式,政府让渡空间和职权,培育和推动社会组织参与社会治理,实现多元共治的治理格局。