The Market Timing Ability of UK Mutual Funds

Abstract:  We apply a recent nonparametric methodology to test the market timing skills of UK equity and balanced mutual funds. The methodology has a number of advantages over the widely used regression based tests of Treynor-Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson-Merton (1981) . We find a relatively small number of funds (around 1%) demonstrate positive market timing ability at a 5% significance level while around 19% of funds exhibit negative timing and on average funds miss-time the market. However, controlling for publicly available information we find very little evidence of market timing ability based on private timing signals. In terms of investment styles, there are a small number of successful positive market timers amongst Equity Income and 'All Company' funds but not among either Small Stock funds or Balanced funds, although a few small stock funds are found to time a small stock index rather than a broad market index.     

Exploiting International Stock Market Correlations with Open-end International Mutual Funds

Investors can exploit the correlations between international stock markets by trading no-load, open-end, international mutual funds. These investors in effect cheat passive investors because they buy the mutual funds at their net asset values, which do not reflect information released during the US trading day. The strategy we examine yields an annual rate of return 800 basis points above the S&P500, over a period of almost eight years.     

Seasonality, Market Timing and Performance Amongst Benchmarks and Mutual Fund Evaluation

Abstract:  Mutual fund performance is normally measured by comparing results of active management with those obtained by one or several benchmarks that should represent the fund's investment. In this context, this paper examines the effect on mutual fund assessment if a relevant benchmark is omitted. This effect is analysed in three elements of active management: stock selection, market timing, and seasonality. The latter is defined as fund management at specific moments of time with the objective of achieving positive abnormal returns to improve performance. For a sample of Spanish mutual funds, we find that the omission of style benchmarks, particularly that corresponding to small-cap stocks, leads to greater evidence of negative market timing and positive seasonality at year beginning. However, the positive abnormal returns of the seasonality at year end, month end and especially at the beginning of July hold regardless of benchmark omission. The paper therefore also analyses the relation between performance and seasonality, finding that positive seasonality at year beginning and at July beginning improves performance; however, at other moments it implies a possible window dressing strategy in mutual fund management.     

Fund Manager Succession in Closed-End Mutual Funds

Managing the succession process by the hiring and firing of key executives is one of the important functions of a board of directors. In this research we study successions of fund managers in the closed‐end mutual fund industry. The agency issues inherent in closed‐end mutual funds makes them a unique laboratory for such a study. Our results suggest that while the overall abnormal returns of these manager changes are statistically insignificant, that the returns are more positive for funds with large expense ratios and for funds trading at a discount. We also find the abnormal returns are negatively related to the percentage of inside director stock ownership. Corporate bond funds and international equity funds react more negatively to these announcements than other types of funds. The abnormal returns do not appear to be related to board composition, but board composition does vary across fund type, and may therefore indirectly influence the results.     

Risk Transmission from Oil and Natural Gas Futures to Emerging Market Mutual Funds

This study evaluates the impacts of energy markets on emerging market mutual funds (EMMFs). In particular, we investigate the volatility transmission between these funds and the oil and natural gas prices. The findings suggest significant risk spillover from the energy markets to EMMFs. Furthermore, we find a large number of EMMFs’ risk transmitting to oil prices and almost all of the EMMFs’ risk transmitting to natural gas prices. By dividing the sample into two (before and after 2008), we find the EMMFs’ influence on the oil market decreasing after this turbulent period. Our results have important implications for mutual fund managers and investors.     

Assessing Selectivity and Market Timing Performance of Mutual Funds for an Emerging Market: The Case of Turkey

This paper derives and analyzes the selectivity and market timing performance of the mutual funds for the Turkish economy for the financial crisis period by employing high-frequency data. The determinants of these derived abilities are investigated within a regression analysis. The results suggest weak evidence about selection ability and some evidence about superior market timing quality. They also indicate that management fees are negatively correlated with the ability measure, which is quite surprising. Experience emerges as an important factor, especially for market timing ability.     

中国开放式基金营销研究

营销是开放式基金的重要业务之一。本文试从我国开放式基金的发展历程入手,借鉴成熟资本市场的经验,探讨我国开放式基金营销中存在问题及形成原因,在结合我国资本市场的发展状况基础上,提出开放式基金营销的对策建议。     

Selectivity and Market Timing Performance of Fidelity Sector Mutual Funds

In this paper, we test the selectivity and timing performance of the Fidelity sector mutual funds during the 1989–1998 time period. We use the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industry Group Total Return Indexes, and the Dow Jones Subgroup Total Return Indexes as benchmarks. When we use the Dow Jones Industry benchmarks, our results indicate that many sector fund managers have positive selectivity but negative timing ability. We also find that the results are sensitive to our choice of benchmark and timing model.     

Risk-Adjusted Performance of Mutual Funds: Evidence from China

In this article, we evaluate the performance of mutual funds in China between 2006 and 2014. We first estimate time-varying abnormal returns of each mutual fund using an active peer benchmark-augmented factor pricing model. An index of riskiness is then estimated and used to calculate the augmented performance measure (APM). By construction, the APM separates the managerial premium of the fund from systematic risk premium, so it is better than the economic performance measure. The APM incorporates information beyond the first and second moments of the distribution of fund abnormal return; therefore, it is more informative than the Sharpe ratio.     

Credit ETFs in Mutual Funds and Corporate Bond Liquidity

We show that high yield (HY) mutual funds own and trade ETFs to manage liquidity needs driven by fund flows, whereas investment grade (IG) funds do not. The use of ETFs by HY mutual funds to manage liquidity shifts some trading away from bonds and into ETFs, which reduces the liquidity of the underlying bonds. This substitution effect outweighs the better-understood inclusion effect, whereby bond liquidity benefits from increased ETF ownership, such that the net effect of ETFs is to reduce HY liquidity. In IG, the substitution effect is not significant and ETFs result in increased bond liquidity.     

Arbitrage Bounds and the Time Series Properties of the Discount on UK Closed-End Mutual Funds

Abstract:  In a dataset of weekly observations over the period since 1990, the discount on UK closed-end mutual funds is shown to be nonstationary, but reverting to a nonzero long run mean. Although the long run discount could be explained by factors like management expenses etc., its short run fluctuations are harder to reconcile with an arbitrage-free equilibrium. In time series terms, there is evidence of long memory in discounts consistent with a bounded random walk. This conclusion is supported by explicit nonlinearity tests, and by results which suggest the behaviour of the discount is perhaps best represented by one of the class of Smooth-Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models.     

Relative Performance Evaluation of Mutual Funds: A Non-Parametric Approach

We propose an alternative mutual fund performance index which addresses the benchmark problem and controls for economies of scale in managing mutual funds. We advance a new concept of 'return-cost' efficiency as another important element in evaluating portfolio management, in addition to the mean-variance efficiency concept. Our index based on a non-parametric estimation is shown to be similar to the Sharpe index with multiple slopes (or factors). We have shown that all fund categories, except income funds, have similar average efficiency scores after controlling for economies of scale. Most funds operate in increasing returns to scale and seem to be successful in holding mean-variance efficient portfolios, but unsuccessful in allocating transaction costs efficiently, evidenced by excessive turnovers and loads.     

A Portfolio's Country Exposure Management: The Case of Latin American Mutual Funds

This study empirically examines the forecasting ability and performance of Latin American fund managers by evaluating changes in portfolio country exposure. It employs a methodology based on attribution returns. An attribution return is defined as the difference between the actual monthly fund return and the return that would have been generated by the previous month portfolio's country exposure. The study finds three major results. In the aggregate, Latin American fund managers demonstrate forecasting ability as evidenced by a positive and statistically significant attribution return. The fund managers outperform a regional benchmark when measured with Jensen's alpha, and the attribution return is positively correlated with alpha. Attribution returns are mostly negative during periods of financial instability in the region.     

Flow-Performance Relationship and Star Effect: New Evidence from Chinese Mutual Funds

In this paper, we reexamine the mutual fund flow-performance relationship and star effect using mutual funds in China that have unique features of high risk and low performance persistence. Confirming prior studies, we find that fund performance is positively related to flows in subsequent periods. However, our results show that funds that performed well in the past do not attract additional inflows after controlling for performance. In addition, a star fund, a fund with a five-star Morningstar rating, does not have any significant effect on the fund's flows. These results suggest that it is important to recognize the difference in investor groups and factors that affect performance persistence when analyzing the mutual fund flow-performance relationship.     

Emerging Market Bond Funds: A Comprehensive Analysis

We analyze U.S.‐based emerging market bond funds over a ten‐year (1996–2005) complete cycle of ups and downs in the dominant emerging bond markets. Emerging market bond funds outperform comparable domestic and global bond funds. The results are robust across both conditional and unconditional models. The funds also provide international diversification benefits to U.S. and international bond and equity portfolios. The funds exhibit persistence in performance and seasonality. Active funds, large funds and funds with high minimum purchases perform better on a total return basis but not on a risk‐adjusted basis.     

Running From a Bear: How Poor Stock Market Performance Affects the Determinants of Mutual Fund Flows

Abstract:  Using a proprietary data set to study how past performance affects the determinants of mutual fund flows for a sample of load fund investors, I provide evidence that the determinants of fund flow depend on market conditions for both redemptions and purchases. Specifically, I show that, for redemptions, relative performance and risk adjusted performance are important determinants during a period of record flows into mutual funds. Conversely, during a period of poor performance, absolute performance becomes much more important and relative performance and risk adjusted performance become less important. For purchases, absolute performance, risk adjusted performance, and most relative performance measures become more important during the bear market.     

The Corporate Governance Premium,Returns, and Mutual Funds

Mutual funds with a preference for strong corporate governance (CG) have performance similar to mutual funds with a preference for weak CG. We find a direct relation between overall mutual fund CG preference and the corporate governance premium (CGP). Furthermore, the investment preferences of mutual funds forecast the change in the CGP. We provide evidence that the investment activities of institutional investors can affect stock performance, and that shifts by institutional investors in CG preference impact the appearance of the CGP.     

Smart Money and Small Funds

This study extends the literature on the relationship between recent performance and the movement of managed funds' assets by investigating the effects of fund size and age. The results confirm a size effect, as well as an age effect. Tests distinguishing between the two favor a size rather than an age interpretation. The evidence that flows of small funds are more sensitive to recent performance than flows of large funds is consistent with Gruber's (1996) notion of sophisticated investors using information in past performance to identify superior funds. Zheng's (1998) evidence that the good performers tend to be small funds suggests that the smart money should be following small funds, as confirmed in this study. Support for the 'smart money size effect' is also provided here with evidence confirming that small funds tend to be superior performers.