对我国货币政策有效性的分析

文章对在开放条件下我国货币政策传导机制存在的各种约束进行了阐述，并实证分析了我国近年来的货币政策效果。实证结果表明，我国货币供应量的增长不能解释近年来的GDP的增长，我国可以实施通货膨胀目标制以替代目前状况。     

通胀目标制：功能机理、政策绩效与启示

通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代初西方发达国家兴起的一种货币政策框架。文章从理论阐释了通胀目标制的功能机理,运用48个国家的相关数据对通胀目标制的绩效进行了实证分析,实证结果表明:通货膨胀目标制有助于锚住通胀预期,降低通货膨胀,稳定产出,是一种比较成功的货币政策框架。这一结论对货币政策框架需要调整的我国具有一定的政策启示。     

新兴市场国家通货膨胀目标定位与目标偏离问题研究

目标定位和目标偏离是通货膨胀目标制实施过程中的中心问题。本文对巴西、捷克、波兰和南非这4个典型的新兴市场国家实施通货膨胀目标制的经验,特别是通货膨胀目标定位的合理性、目标偏离的情况及其对应政策进行比较分析,以探寻各国在实施通货膨胀目标制时的经验教训和启示。     

信息不完全、通货膨胀目标制与货币政策声誉:跨国经验

20世纪90年代以来通行的通货膨胀目标制被认为是极具透明性、灵活性的货币政策框架，受到很多国家的推崇。本文验证通货膨胀目标制是否有助于建立货币政策声誉，构建一个基于信息不完全基础上的动态预期形成模型，通过对通货膨胀目标制能否引起结构性变化的七个发达国家的实证研究，发现政策声誉的建立是一个学习过程。通货膨胀目标制实行的时间越长，该政策对降低通货膨胀率，实现经济稳定增长越有效。     

金融危机后我国货币政策何去何从

本文通过对通货膨胀目标制的基本框架和实施条件的分析,认为在我国短期内不适合采用通货膨胀目标制,并对我国长期内采用通货膨胀目标制提出了一定的政策建议.     

通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性分析

本文从央行操作技能、制度保障体系、市场传导机制和宏观经济环境等四个方面对通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性进行了分析。结论表明我国已基本具备实施通货膨胀目标制的前提条件．中央银行应尽快实现由当前货币政策操作框架向通货膨胀目标制的转变。     

泰国的反通货膨胀目标制及其对我国的启示

本文通过对泰国中央银行货币政策目标变化的分析,揭示了泰国银行实施反通货膨胀目标制的深刻原因,并且简要介绍了泰国银行反通货膨胀目标制的具体内容.泰国中央银行采用反通货膨胀目标制实际上是以经济的内部均衡为主,并以汇率政策作为解决一国经济外部失衡的主要政策工具,这种政策取向对我国经济发展具有借鉴意义.     

我国实行通货膨胀目标制的适用性分析

20世纪90年代以来,通货膨胀目标制货币政策成为一种趋势。文章从通货膨胀目标制的基本框架入手．阐述了通货膨胀目标制在各国的实践特点。针对我国政策中介目标的选择．对我国目前是否应该实行通货膨胀目标制进行适用性分析．提出了虽然短期之内我国暂不适合采用通货膨胀目标制,但从长期来看仍不失为一种合理选择这些看法。     

中央银行的独立性、政策信誉与通货膨胀目标制

通货膨胀目标制作为一种新兴的货币政策框架，近年来备受推崇。实行通货膨胀目标制国家的一个显著特点是大都实施了加强中央银行独立性的改革。本文依据不同的方法测算出实行通货膨胀目标制国家的中央银行独立性指数，分析了通货膨胀目标制框架下中央银行独立性加强与政策信誉之间的关系。     

通货膨胀目标制在我国建立的可行性分析

上个世纪90年代,货币政策实践开始出现新变化,很多国家相继宣布实行通货膨胀目标制度的货币政策框架。而当前我国货币政策的操作方式和效果受到广泛争议。本文在介绍通货膨胀目标制及其实施的前提基础上,分析了我国目前尚不具备全面建立通货膨胀目标制的条件。     

Inflation targeting in India: A comparison with the multiple indicator approach

The empirical literature on identification and measurement of the impact of monetary policy shocks on the real side of the economy is fairly comprehensive for developed economies, but very limited for emerging and transition economies. In this study, we propose an identification scheme for a developing economy (taking India as a case study), which is able to capture the monetary transmission mechanism for that economy without giving rise to empirical anomalies. Using a VAR approach with recursive contemporaneous restrictions, we identify monetary policy shocks by modelling the reaction function of the central bank and structure of that economy. The effect of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables is consistent with the predictions of a broad set of theoretical models. This set-up is used to build a hypothetical case of inflation targeting where the monetary policy instrument is set after assessing the current values of inflation only. This is in contrast with the ‘multiple indicator approach’ currently followed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The results in this study suggest that the demand effects of interest rate are stronger than the exchange rate effects. There is also evidence of the mitigation of potential conflict between exchange rate and interest rate, one of main monetary policy dilemmas of the RBI in inflation targeting.     

ZONE‐TARGETING MONETARY POLICY PREFERENCES AND FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS: A FLEXIBLE NON‐LINEAR POLICY REACTION FUNCTION OF THE SARB MONETARY POLICY

We estimate a flexible model of the monetary policy reaction function of the South African Reserve Bank based on a representation of the policymaker's preferences that capture asymmetries and zone‐targeting behaviours. We augment the analysis to allow for responses to financial market conditions over and above inflation and output stabilisation to address the current debate on the importance of financial asset prices in monetary policy decision making. The empirical results show that the monetary authorities' response to inflation is zone symmetric. Secondly, the monetary authorities' response to output is asymmetric with increased reaction during business cycle downturns relative to upturns. Thirdly, the monetary authorities pay close attention to the financial conditions index by placing an equal weight on financial market booms and recessions.     

Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience

This paper examines the performance of Turkey's inflation targeting (IT) experience. We find the IT regime to be an effective framework. Our judgment is based on three broad conclusions supported by empirical analyses. First, fiscal stability is an effective tool for a successful monetary policy. Second, the overnight policy of the Central Bank of Turkey rate is a significant determinant of the changes in market lending rates, which is the preliminary step in the monetary transmission mechanism. Third, recent developments on the broader issue of the effectiveness of interest rate policy in controlling inflation through aggregate demand management and through other channels are encouraging. Based on our findings, we argue that the impact of policy rate changes on economic activity and inflation have become more predictable and changed in the direction in line with theory, improving the transmission capacity of monetary policy.     

What to Aim for? The Choice of an Inflation Objective when Openness Matters

Inflation targeting countries generally define the inflation objective in terms of the consumer price index. Studies in the academic literature, however, reach conflicting conclusions concerning which measure of inflation a central bank should target in a small open economy. This paper examines the properties of domestic, CPI, and real-exchange-rate-adjusted (REX) inflation targeting. In one class of open economy New Keynesian models there is an isomorphism between optimal policy in an open versus closed economy. In the type of model we consider, where the real exchange rate appears in the Phillips curve, this isomorphism breaks down; openness matters. REX inflation targeting restores the isomorphism but this may not be desirable. Instead, under domestic and CPI inflation targeting the exchange rate channel can be exploited to enhance the effects of monetary policy. Our results indicate that CPI inflation targeting delivers price stability across the three inflation objectives and will be desirable to a central bank with a high aversion to inflation instability. CPI inflation targeting also does a better job of stabilizing the real exchange rate and interest rate which is an advantage from the standpoint of financial stability. REX inflation targeting does well in achieving output stability and has an advantage if demand shocks are predominant. In general, the choice of the inflation objective affects the trade-offs between policy goals and thus policy choices and outcomes.     

MONETARY POLICY IN RWANDA: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Countries in Africa are increasingly becoming similar in outlook, especially as regards monetary policy. With a view to conducting a long‐term study of monetary policy in Africa, we apply an empirical test for the coherence of inflation targeting, first conducted by Nell (2003 ) for South Africa, to data from Rwanda. We find that like South Africa, Rwanda has a stable money demand function and the adoption of an inflation target is a wise policy option. Also, the Rwandan money market needs just over five quarters to eliminate half of any monetary disequilibrium. These results are of some interest to economists and policy makers for all the countries in the increasingly interconnected continent of Africa.     

A NOTE ON THE TRIMMED MEAN MEASURE OF CORE INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper constructs and analyses the properties of a trimmed mean inflation rate for South Africa. Based on an analysis of the distributions of the consumer price index component price changes, a measure is constructed that provides an estimator of core inflation, which may be particularly useful to policymakers in an inflation‐targeting environment. The trimmed mean estimator focuses on the price movements of individual components that have a strong bearing on the current and future trend of the headline inflation rate, allowing monetary policy to be directed at the persistent or underlying sources of inflationary pressures.     

Targeting Rules for an Open Economy

This study extends the formal analysis of inflation targeting monetary policy using the standard New Keynesian framework to a small open economy by adding inflation and output persistence as well as a direct exchange rate channel to domestic inflation. We find that output variability is lower under CPI inflation targeting than under domestic inflation targeting. However, CPI inflation results in higher variability of the real exchange rate than domestic inflation targeting. Output and the nominal interest rate are less volatile under flexible inflation targeting than under almost-strict inflation targeting. We also find that almost-strict domestic inflation targeting cannot completely insulate domestic inflation from foreign shocks due to a direct exchange rate channel. The model is calibrated to Canadian data.     

Assessing the performance of inflation targeting in East Asian economies

This paper examines the implementation and performance of inflation targeting (IT) in four East Asian emerging market economies: Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. It also examines monetary policy in Malaysia, a country that has not adopted IT. The study estimates policy reaction functions to test the links between the adoption of IT and use of a monetary policy rule. The impulse responses of prices to a monetary policy shock are also estimated to identify monetary policy impacts on prices. The findings on the monetary policies of the five economies can be summarised as follows. Korea has taken an inflation‐responsive and forward‐looking policy stance under inflation targeting, which has had an effect on the stability of prices. Indonesia and Thailand have conducted inflation‐responsive but backward‐looking policy stances, which have had no impact in terms of price stabilisation. The Philippines (which adopted IT but under a pegged exchange rate regime) and Malaysia have neither followed inflation‐responsive rules nor had policy impacts in terms of controlling inflation.     

Monetary Aggregates Targeting,Inflation Targeting and Inflation Stabilization in Ghana

The central bank of Ghana (BoG) has operated monetary aggregates targeting and inflation targeting since the 1980s, to ensure enhanced output growth, low unemployment and stable, low inflation. Under inflation targeting, the inflation rate averaged 13.26 per cent per annum between 2007 and 2015, compared with 29.22 per cent per annum under monetary aggregates targeting. The relatively lower inflation rates notwithstanding, an average inflation rate of 13.2 per cent per annum is far above the medium‐term target of 8 per cent. This paper has examined the effectiveness of monetary aggregates targeting and inflation targeting in keeping inflation at moderate levels. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied to the data covering the period 1970–2015. The results show that monetary targeting has steered inflation to moderate levels only in the short run while inflation targeting has maintained low inflation rates in both short run and long run. But neither regime has kept inflation at stable levels and within the target band, due to the sluggish transmission of broad money supply and prime rate changes to inflation. We implore the monetary authorities to strengthen the institutional setup for steering short‐term interest rates in Ghana. They should also enhance the BoG Act 2002 (Act 612), to develop secondary anchors and rules around output, money supply and fiscal deficit. Finally, the monetary policy committee should monetary policy credibility and transparency through strengthening its communication framework.