Modelling property values in Nigeria using artificial neural network

Unreliable and inaccurate property valuation has been associated with techniques currently used in property valuation. A possible explanation for these findings may be due to the utilisation of traditional valuation methods. In the current study, an artificial neural network (ANN) is applied in property valuation using the Lagos metropolis property market as a representative case. Property sales transactions data (11 property attributes and property value) were collected from registered real estate firms operating in Lagos, Nigeria. The result shows that the ANN model possesses a good predictive ability, implying that it is suitable and reliable for property valuation. The relative importance analysis conducted on the property attributes revealed that the number of servants’ quarters is the most important attribute affecting property values. The findings suggest that the ANN model could be used as a tool by real estate stakeholders, especially valuers and researchers for property valuation.     

A generalized method for valuing agricultural farms under uncertainty

The opacity of the farm market means that valuations are based primarily on expert estimates rather than on actual transaction prices. The valuation method based on the two cumulative distribution functions (VMTCDF), created by Ballestero (1971), improves the synthetic method based on estimating the market value of an asset by establishing a proportional relation between the asset and one external variable. However, in most cases the expert must consider multiple external variables. This paper proposes a definitive extension to k indexes with a methodology particularly applicable to the field of valuation of non-market goods or markets where little information is available as may be the case with the valuation of agricultural land. The contribution is illustrated with an empirical example.     

Land economic rent computation for urban planning and fiscal purposes

This article proposes an innovative methodology to compute economic rents of land designed to current or potential offices uses. It consists in the establishment of a cause-and-effect relation between offices’ price levels and correspondent levels of land rent, considering the main factors that influence property prices, the ones that guide public and private activities’ location decisions and the inter-dependencies between land and real estate property markets. The rationale subjacent to this research is that land economic rent is determined by the difference between offices market price and a set of costs correspondent to land acquisition, planning and building processes, and a profit margin. An assessment of surplus values is provided in order to compute it as the difference between total land market value (land economic rent plus economic return on land use) and correspondent tributary patrimonial-value according to legal valuation proceedings (settled on property law). In order to reach these goals, variables that exert influence on urban planning and municipal management were identified, an urban management information system was designed and implemented, and an integrated and interactive model to support decisions in urban planning – concerning real estate offices and land prices and characteristics – was developed. These tools were applied as a case study to Oporto city (Portugal). They embody updating functionalities, setting up as an on-going support to policies of municipal land use management (particularly applied to offices uses). A proposal is made to integrate similar models in territorial plans as valuation tools to support better approaches to assess the impact of planning decisions on real estate and land values, thus informing a more equitable, efficient and local-based tax basis. Implications of this analysis for urban planning and fiscal settings are proposed.     

3 Dimensional data research for property valuation in the context of the LADM Valuation Information Model

Property valuation is a process that promotes sustainable development as it supports and forms several land management activities. Access to information on the legal, geometric, physical, locational and environmental characteristics of property units together with the economic indicators are required for an effective property valuation system. Traditional cadastral systems generally provide only two-dimensional (2D) legal and geometric information about property units, however, today’s valuation practices would benefit significantly from three-dimensional (3D) information in order better to estimate and explain values of property units. The purpose of this paper is to examine how 3D spatial datasets and spatial analyses have been used in property valuation, and to develop 3D valuation unit profile(s) in line with the examination results for the recently proposed Valuation Information Model that extends the ISO 19152:2012 Land Administration Domain Model (LADM) from the valuation point of view. The study focuses more on 3D locational and environmental characteristics of property units; particularly visibility and especially viewshed analysis in terms of property valuation. By using open topography, building and height datasets of the Netherlands, a number of viewshed analyses are conducted to show how it can be utilized using different 3D data sources. The main contribution of the article is to present how 3D datasets and spatial analyses could be used to support property valuation activities and to investigate to what extent it is possible and meaningful to include derived 3D characteristics of property units in valuation registries.     

Complexity in valuation practice: an inquiry into valuers’ perceptions of task complexity in the Dutch real estate market

The aim of this paper is to examine valuer judgement behaviour, by exploring the manifestation of task complexity in Dutch commercial valuation practice. For this purpose, we adopted a grounded theory approach and undertook 18 in-depth interviews with senior valuation professionals across the Netherlands. Our findings indicate a strong presence of situational task complexity in commercial valuation practice, as professionals operating in large valuation teams perceive different elements of task complexity throughout commercial valuation practice in comparison to peers working in small valuation teams or self-employed valuers. Further, coping strategies used to deal with task complexity vary substantially by type of valuer as well. From our data, we deducted three types of task environment constructs in which valuers operate, which basically represent the various levels of professional standards required by clients as well as organisational settings composed to meet client standards. As such, we found that task environment settings strongly coincide with perceptions of task complexity. The presence of situational task complexity in commercial real estate valuation practice points to the need for customisation of professional valuer’s development programs to facilitate valuers to deal with task complexity in different stages of valuation practice and hence contribute to advancing valuer judgement skills.     

农村集体经营性建设用地价格影响因素的实证分析*——基于江西省余江县179份交易案例

[目的]确定农村集体商服用地、工业用地价格的影响因素,为科学评估农村集体经营性建设用地地价、构建城乡统一建设用地市场提供参考。[方法]利用全国农村土地使用制度改革试点之一的江西省余江县179个交易案例,运用特征价格模型分析农村集体商服用地、工业用地价格的影响因素及各类因素的贡献率。[结果](1)农村集体商服用地价格的主要影响因素依次为乡镇财政收入、人均纯收入、到客运站距离、到国道的距离、教育设施;农村集体工业用地价格的主要影响因素依次为人均纯收入、人均农村居民点面积、到客运站的距离、到国道的距离。(2)社会经济因素、区位交通因素和公共设施因素对集体商服用地价格的贡献度分别为69. 0%、20. 4%和10. 6%;社会经济因素和区位交通因素对集体工业用地价格的贡献度分别为52. 8%和47. 2%。[结论]总体上与国有城镇建设用地价格存在共性规律,但存在部分因素与国有建设用地价格规律存在差异,农村集体经营性建设用地估价不宜完全套用城镇建设用地的思路。     

农村宅基地使用权流转的公平与效率分析

研究目的：分析现行的禁止农村宅基地流转制度对农村宅基地利用效率与公平性的制度绩效。研究方法：文献资料法、对比分析法。研究结果：禁止农村宅基地流转的制度导致了农村宅基地超标利用、居民点布局分散和村容村貌差,存在严重的宅基地利用效率损失;同时在城乡居民市场主体地位、城乡土地产权地位、农民土地权益等方面也存在严重的不公平性。研究结论：基于对农村宅基地流转公平与效率的改进出发,取消限制农村宅基地流转的相关规定,允许农村宅基地入市交易,并严格管理农村宅基地。     

How to assess the impact of hope on a change in the use of land on market value?

This article is devoted to common yet quite specific approaches to valuation practice tasks that are involved in determining the market value of real properties in areas of possible land use changes. An intrinsic element of market value in such areas is the hope value, for which an option pricing model is used quite frequently.The authors propose a specially adapted Samuelson-McKean model for this task, which allows market value indication to be determined not only with the built-in development option, but also the dynamics of its components value in the current highest and best use and hope value – depending on the location of the given property. The greatest advantage of the Samuelson-McKean model is that it can be treated as universal for analyzing the range of possible indications of market value seeing as how its main task is to find a compromise between the interests of the buyer and the seller, which is the goal of any fair transactions and decisions.     

集体经营性建设用地统筹入市的模式选择

研究目的：比较分析两种集体经营性建设用地统筹入市模式的治理效率,为深化集体经营性建设用地市场化治理实践提供参考。研究方法：基于案例的交易成本比较分析。研究结果：不确定性是影响统筹入市模式选择的关键因素。村集体自组织的土地联营公司模式比政府主导的土地整备模式,更适于处理较高不确定性引致的交易成本,在促成集体行动、避免事后违反协议、促进收益分配公平等方面表现更好。研究结论：集体经营性建设用地入市的交易属性与所采用的治理模式之间的匹配程度决定统筹入市的治理效率。建议在农村经济较为发达的地区,发挥政府协调引导作用,鼓励各村集体在充分协商的基础上,成立联合委员会或者土地股份公司,合作开展集体经营性建设用地的统筹入市。     

威廉姆森分析范式下农地经营权抵押贷款问题研究——以山东枣庄市为例

山东枣庄是我国较早开展土地产权制度改革的试点城市,其土地经营权抵押贷款的改革尤为突出。在实践过程中,通过剥离农地经营权、创建担保公司等改革手段,为农地规模化经营提供融资保障。但在实践过程中,混合治理结构带来的交易成本过高问题也渐渐显露。本文引入威廉姆森范式理论,对枣庄市农地经营权抵押贷款中的治理结构、交易性质以及交易频率等进行了分析,得出一体化的治理结构可有效降低交易成本,最后从一体化组织构建、行政关系、合作方式与原则以及风险防范等角度提出一体化治理结构的政策建议。     

Evolution of the Amazonian frontier: Land values in Rondônia, Brazil

Patterns in property values provide strong signals about the future and sustainability of land use. This paper analyzes the determinants of land value in an Amazonian frontier settlement. We estimate hedonic price functions to identify factors that affect the value of farm properties in the western Brazilian Amazon. Distance to market explains nearly one-third of the variation in farm value, as predicted by the von Thünen model. After controlling for location relative to the central market and for municipality, we find that investment in the farms (as reflected in the stocking rate of pastures and the establishment of home gardens) has the next largest impact on land value. The value per hectare of land is negatively related to total lot size, suggesting that any economies of scale are outweighed by the cost of accessing remote corners of large properties. We do not find that land values are related to available measures of biophysical factors or to historic or current land use. Our results do not identify any premium for forest cover or for land uses considered to be more sustainable than pasture on the property itself. However, farm values are affected by neighboring land cover, specifically, the extent of barren land. Thus, local knowledge of factors contributing to future productivity, as summarized in land values, confirms that soil exhaustion can lead to a general decline in property values, while investments in a property both as a homestead and as a farm can help sustain frontier settlements.     

Inequity of land valuation in the highly developed city of Taipei,Taiwan

Taiwan has a wealth of experience in employing a graded, or split-rate, property tax. It is believed that a graded property tax can increase the capital intensity of improvements to land, and thus improve economic activities. In order to achieve this, land value needs to be extracted from the price of an improved property. Despite the long history of a graded property tax in Taiwan, the accuracy and corresponding equity issues of land valuation have so far received scant attention. This study adopts a linear regression model with data sets of both vacant land and improved property to separate land and structure values. This approach solves the common problem of scarce land sales and the empirical results turn out satisfactorily. The empirical findings suggest that the ratio of land value to total property price varies across property types and age of property. In addition, the current practice is likely to contribute to assessment inequity, and consequently tax inequity. All these observations call for the need to overhaul the present property assessment system.     

The assessment of land valuation in land consolidation schemes: The need for a new land valuation framework

There are principally two ways for quantifying the land value of parcels in land consolidation schemes. The first approach involves assigning an agronomic value based on soil quality and land productivity represented by a score while the second method determines the market value signified in monetary terms. In Cyprus, the market value is employed, which is defined through an empirical process based on visual inspection of all parcels and hence it constitutes a type of mass land appraisal. This process presents weaknesses regarding time, costs, transparency, accuracy, reliability, consistency and fairness. In addition, the lack of adequate sales transactions in rural areas further complicates the whole process. Consequently, these deficiencies have adverse effects in the preparation of land consolidation plans and cause arguments between landowners and the authorities carrying out each scheme. Although experts are aware of this issue, there is a lack of research investigating land valuation factors and the quality of this traditional process. Therefore, this paper discusses, explores and assesses the land valuation undertaken by the Land Valuation Committee (LVC) in a case study area in Cyprus and proposes a new framework for carrying out this process. The assessment of the current process is undertaken by employing advanced spatial analysis techniques, including multiple regression analysis (MRA) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) within a GIS. Results show that eight out of fourteen land valuation factors related to parcel location characteristics, legal factors, physical attributes and economic conditions are the most significant. In addition, although the basic regression fits are quite good, some of the assumptions required for testing the hypothesis are not met, indicating unreliability and inconsistency in the relationships modelled. Furthermore, the presence of spatial autocorrelation reveals important regional variation in these factors suggesting significant inconsistencies in the valuation policy applied by the LVC. The latter two findings confirm experts’ concerns and suggest the need for a new land valuation framework that is designed to overcome the problems of the current process. The application of this framework and the investigation of various critical relevant issues is the core of ongoing further research.     

Property tax inequity resulting from inaccurate assessment—The Taiwan experience

Real properties are periodically valued by governments in order to perform a variety of public functions. Time and resource constraints have often motivated a government to develop adhoc assessment rules to undertake expeditious valuation. The extent to which the properties are equitably valued, however, should be under constant scrutiny. Valuation equity is defined as properties being valued at the same, or similar, percentage of their sales price in the market. Violation of the equity criterion is deemed as evidence of valuation inequity. This study employs and expands the concept of assessment ratios to detect, and explain where possible, the property valuation inequity in Taipei City. Empirical evidence suggests no significant assessment regressivity or progressivity among individual properties. The assessment ratios between houses, low-rise condominiums, and high-rise condominiums, nevertheless, are found to be materially different. Spatial consideration is also explicitly added into the analysis. A distinct clustering of neighborhoods with similar assessment ratios is found. This non-random pattern infers valuation inequity in a spatial sense. The spatial inequity of assessment ratios suggests that certain location-associated social and economic price-determining factors are not properly accounted for in the assessment rules. The extraction method adopted by assessment rules to apportion land and structure values is believed to be responsible. A likely cause for the malfunction of the extraction method is thought to be the widely documented non-linear site size–land value relationship. After all, high buildings on sites that feature multi-ownership dominate the majority of areas in Taipei.     

Informal land registration under unclear property rights: witnessing contracts,redevelopment, and conferring property rights

The significance of informal land registration in property transactions and development has been discussed at length, but there are few examples of in-depth case studies of how this information accessing and collection institution relates to them and how it may create property rights. This paper examines the nature and operation of non-governmental and voluntary land transaction registration practices in Kowloon Walled City, an ideal example of a privately-planned and developed habitat under unclear property rights due to jurisdictional disputes between China and Britain and no state protection of property rights or intervention in building control existed. Based on documentary evidence interpreted from a Coasian and Hayekian stance, it advances the proposition that the contracts the Kowloon Walled City Kaifong Welfare Promotion Association (hereafter the Kaifong Association) sought to represent as a witness built up its political credibility as a representative body. Such a role not only reduced transaction costs of contract enforcement and, hence, facilitated redevelopment, but also became that of a quasi-government land registrar due to the popularity of its witnessing service, which, under specific circumstances, served as the basis for the assignment of de jure private property rights by the state.     

The Effect of Agricultural Zoning on Rural Residential Property Values: An Application to Ontario's Greenbelt

Although previous studies on property value effects of land use policies have focused primarily on agricultural properties and on residential properties in close proximity to preserved areas, this paper examines for the effect on rural residential property values within the preserved area. This effect is examined in the context of Ontario's Greenbelt legislation, which prohibits urban development of rural land within a large area around the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). This preserved area includes not only agricultural properties but also a substantial amount of rural residential properties due to proximity to the GTA. With the amenity value that rural residential properties derive from the surrounding rural landscape, the imposed development restrictions that permanently preserve this open space are anticipated to increase the values of these properties. This expectation is confirmed by the results of a hedonic approach, which indicate a positive effect on the values of rural residential properties within the Greenbelt's boundary. This effect is found to be greater for properties with more surrounding open space and those that are relatively closer to the GTA. These results also provide an estimate of the property value impact of converting all surrounding developable open space to permanently preserved open space.     

不同空间尺度下城市土地利用绩效评价指标体系的构建

指标选择是评价土地利用绩效的基础,目前许多学者从不同角度建立了土地利用绩效评价指标体系,为土地利用评价奠定了理论基础,然而构建土地利用绩效评价指标体系仍是学术界的重要任务。已有的一些城市土地利用评价指标忽视空间尺度,针对性、层次性、区域性等不明显,因此本文主要针对建成区和市辖区两个空间尺度建立城市土地利用绩效评价指标体系。     

Optimising adaptation decisions in macadamia production using contingent claim valuation

Altering production systems and land management of tree crops is a costly, disruptive and ultimately irreversible decision. Using traditional valuation methods to appraise long‐term land management outcomes ignores the full impact of irreversible or delayed decisions. We employ a variant of the real options decision process to examine uncertainties around climatic effects on macadamia growers and the explicit decision to adapt via cultivar replacement. We examine the trade‐offs between the timing of the decision to replace macadamia cultivars by considering both the value of flexibility as well as the value of new information that can be used to resolve uncertainty. We compare the relative responses that generate the most value for growers across four geographical locations. We show that simple switching decisions using traditional valuation methods are found to be suboptimal and initiate poor decisions, potentially undermining adaptation efforts. As the rate of orchard degradation increases, the need to transition to higher‐yielding cultivars becomes greater, especially for Hawaii, California and Australia where gross margins are leaner. Investment decisions are thus highly dependent on both local conditions and the economic structure of existing production systems.     

论中国集体林产权流转监管制度的完善

在分析中国集体林产权流转现状的基础上,对其中存在的资产评估体系不完善、交易不规范、登记发证存在缺陷和监督机制不健全等问题进行了探讨,并提出了完善的建议:从规范林权变动审核制度、健全森林资源资产评估体系、完善林权流转合同制度和改革森林资源档案管理4个方面来加强集体林产权流转监管,以保护森林资源产权主体合法权益。     

城镇土地估价的相关技术标准分析--<城镇土地估价规程>与<房地产估价规范>比较

研究目的比较分析<城镇土地估价规程>与<房地产估价规范>在技术标准上的差异性,确定未来城镇土地估价的技术规范方向.研究方法文献资料法和比较分析法.研究结果(1)两个技术标准都强调价格的正常性,但土地估价更多从权益角度考虑,突出出让土地使用权的地位,房地产估价更多地从正常市场交易的价格前提考虑,从而导致估价基础的差异;(2)二者估价的方法相近,但术语用词、应用要求存在差别,特别是基准地价的制定和应用在土地估价中有着重要的地位;(3)对土地权益和与之相关的估价目的,土地估价重视不同用途和各种权利状况下的估价操作,房地产估价则重视具体目的估价时对合法原则的遵循.研究结论两个技术标准应逐步统一,以适应规范市场的发展需要,其关键在于明确基准地价在中国估价技术中的重要地位；规范统一专业术语；统一估价目的方法应用要求。