Is Oregon's land use planning program conserving forest and farm land? A review of the evidence

Planners have long been interested in understanding ways in which land use planning approaches play out on the ground and planning scholars have approached the task of evaluating such effects using a variety of methods. Oregon, in particular, has been the focus of numerous studies owing to its early-adopted and widely recognized statewide approach to farm and forest land protection and recent experiment with relaxation of that approach in 2004 with the passage of ballot Measure 37. In this paper we review research-based evidence regarding the forest and farm land conservation effects of Oregon land use planning. We document the evolution of methods used in evaluating state land use planning program performance, including trend analysis, indicator analysis, empirical models, and analysis of indirect effects on the economic viability of forestry and farming. We also draw on data documenting Measure 37 claims to consider the degree to which Measure 37 might have altered land use and development trends had its impacts not been tempered by a subsequent ballot measure – Measure 49. Finally, we provide a synthesis of the current state of knowledge and suggest opportunities for future research. Common to nearly all of the studies we reviewed was an acknowledgement of the difficulty in establishing causal relationships between land use planning and land use change given the many exogenous and endogenous factors involved. Despite these difficulties, we conclude that sufficient evidence does exist to suggest that Oregon's land use planning program is contributing a measurable degree of protection to forest and farm land in the state.     

Trust-A monolithic panacea in land use planning?

Although trust research has been extensive and substantial, the constitution and actual merits of trust in land use planning remain nebulous. What do participants of a local land use planning process actually mean when they say they trust the planning committee? How important is participants’ trust in the planning committee in shaping their perceptions of the planning process and their cooperation in it? To explore the everyday meaning of trust in the specific context of local land use planning, semi-structured interviews with the participants of a local planning project in Switzerland were conducted (n = 9). Based on these results, the constitution and the relevance of trust in the responsible planning committee among a wider circle of participants were assessed (n = 66). The results show that participants trust the planning committee if they perceive its members as competent, honest, open, fair, reliable, reciprocating, respectful and committed. Interestingly, a considerable part of trust in the planning committee hinges explicitly on whether the committee incorporates the personal interests of the participant. Trust is indeed vital to participants’ belief that a meaningful discussion and cooperation with the members of the planning committee is possible. However, trust is neither a guarantee for people's approval of planning decisions nor for their cooperation. One implication of the findings is that in order to evaluate trust-building practice comprehensively, it is necessary to first understand the specific everyday meaning of trust for ‘real people’ in real planning processes.     

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the experiment, we tested three combinations of scenarios across two time periods, comparing survey responses of individuals reading a set of scenarios with individuals who did not read scenarios. Reading scenario narratives increased willingness to participate in land use planning activities and perceived self-efficacy. Measures of interest and sense of community also increased willingness to participate. Tests of an indirect mediation model found self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of reading scenarios on willingness to participate. This latter relationship may be a mechanistic explanation for the effect of reading scenarios. Envisioning the future with brief, bulleted scenarios of land use change in a print format appears to increase self-efficacy in planning for the future. Our results suggest scenarios can serve as a vehicle for changing public participation in land use planning.     

Do high property taxes influence family forest land Tenure decisions?

Studies have repeatedly documented high property taxes as being a major determinant of a landowner's decision to divest of its forest land. To empirically investigate the relationship between property tax burden and forest land sale activity, property tax data and over 5300 Minnesota forest land sale records from 2000 to 2008 were assembled. Analyses were carried out to identify statistically significant relationships between several measures of private forest land sale activity and forest land property tax burden. The analyses failed to find a statistically positive relationship between the two. Statistically significant negative associations were found between some measures of forest property tax burden and forest land sale frequency, indicating forest land sales activity actually decreased with increasing property tax burden. While high property taxes, no doubt, influence forest land sale decisions, the findings from this study suggest its influence may not be as pervasive as once thought.     

Lost in participation: How local knowledge was overlooked in land use planning and risk governance in Tōhoku,Japan

This article aims to identify gaps in public participation in land use planning to improve risk governance, using the case of the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) in 2011. Overreliance on technical information and on the opinion of experts is occurring side by side along with negligence of local knowledge and lack of effective public participation in decision-making, creating a sense of overconfidence regarding scientific knowledge and new infrastructure's abilities to withstand future disasters. Using the case study method in GEJE, our research identified three main overall gaps in participation. Firstly, a lot of local knowledge from previous experiences was not incorporated into land use plans in the region even after similar events in the past. Secondly, there was technical information that alerted to possible risks for land use in certain areas, but this information did not impede development in risk areas due to lack of effective participation in the land use planning processes. Finally, Japan allows participation in many land use planning process, but some of the most important decisions, such as on the sitting of nuclear plants had little or any local participation. Thus, strengthening public participation in land use by closing those three gaps could improve risk governance and resilience of localities to cope with large natural and technological disasters in the future.     

Urban environmental amenities and property values: Does ownership matter?

This study examines if open space ownership, and ownership of the land on which water resources are located, has a different effect on the sale price of nearby single-family residential properties using an OLS and spatial lag modeling approach. Estimated coefficients for the percentage of land with publicly and/or privately owned water resources in the spatial lag model are mixed with significantly negative coefficients for privately owned land with wetlands or streams and a significantly positive coefficient for publicly owned land with wetlands. These results may reflect differences in accessibility, the current quality of these resources, and beliefs about future management. The spatial lag model has fewer significant coefficients than the OLS model, but the signs of key parameters are consistent across models. The average absolute difference between coefficients in the OLS and spatial lag models is 30.2%.     

The iLUC dilemma: How to deal with indirect land use changes when governing energy crops?

Due to land use effects, bioenergy use may cause adverse effects on biodiversity, soil and water and may even fail to guarantee a GHG emissions reduction compared to fossil fuel use. Accounting methodologies and policy instruments were elaborated to prevent these effects, but there is still no sound and consensual methodology to take into account indirect land use change that substantially contributes to GHG emissions as well as a loss of biodiversity. While the iLUC hypothesis, that is the potentiality of adverse effects arising from indirect land use change related to biomass cultivation, is hardly subject to dispute, the quantification of these effects and especially their policy implications are however contentious. Hence, bioenergy policies worldwide face a dilemma: Neglecting iLUC effects that do in fact exist or taking them into account although no sound methodology is available? The article covers the current state of the discussion and also analyses the approaches developed for taking indirect land use change into account. Assessment criteria for coping with the iLUC dilemma are developed and policy recommendations are derived from that.     

China’s local governments breaking the land use planning quota: A strategic interaction perspective

In China, the planning quota, i.e., the binding target of construction land (BTCL) in land use planning for 15 years (2006–2020), was exhausted within only 7 years, which represents a very serious problem. This result not only nullifies the meaning of the plan itself but also threatens China's food and ecological security and poses great challenges to sustainable development. Here, we develop an analysis framework for local governments that break the BTCL in view of the strategic interactions of transferring newly increased construction land (NCL) among local governments and perform an empirical analysis of data on 262 prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2016. The two main conclusions are as follows. First, adjacent local governments engage in positive strategic interactions regarding the quantity of NCL transferred. Second, positive strategic interactions regarding the quantity of NCL transferred are important reasons why local governments break the planning quota. In addition, we find that better economic development corresponds to more obvious positive strategic interactions. We also find that fiscal incentives and land misallocation play a significant role in promoting the increase in NCL, while strengthening land law enforcement can effectively constrain the increase in NCL. This paper enriches the literature on the reasons for planning failures, extending the research perspective to the level of interaction effects among local governments, and this paper provides new evidence regarding the strategic interaction among Chinese local governments. Moreover, this paper provides an important new path for the central government to constrain urban land expansion and to control the behavior of local governments that break the planning quota.     

An assessment of stakeholders’ participation in land use planning process of Luapula Province Planning Authority

The legal framework of Zambia has laws that support participatory land use planning process but there are no guidelines on how it should be done. Thus, the research aims at assessing if the Luapula Province Planning Authority (LPPA) has a land use planning process that incorporates effective stakeholders’ participation.The research is based on secondary data, especially the land use planning process in the Urban and Regional Planning (URP) Act No. 3 of 2015 of the Laws of Zambia and the participatory land use planning process of Kilimanjaro Region.The data analysed show that there is lack of effective stakeholders’ participation in the LPPA land use planning process; the LPPA land use planning process does not have the provision to capacity build stakeholders during the land use planning process; lack of participatory land use planning guidelines; the institutional framework under customary authority is not part of the land use planning process and the LPPA land use planning process is a top-down approach.The conclusions state that the legal and institutional frameworks in existence are inadequate for effective stakeholders’ participation in land use planning process of LPPA. In addition, the stakeholders are not incorporated in the LPPA land use planning process in terms of decision making but incorporated as reactants to the decisions made by the public authorities.The recommendations are that a National Land Use Planning Commission composed of representatives from stakeholder groups needs to be established. In addition, some sections of the URP Act No. 3 of 2015 of the Laws of Zambia need amendment inorder to have continuous feedback between the land use plan makers (planning firm(s) and planning authority) and the stakeholders. Furthermore, Village Councils must be given power to make decision by establishing them as Village Planning Authorities.     

Compliance of land cover changes with municipal land use planning: Evidence from the Lisbon metropolitan region (1990–2007)

In the past few decades, urbanisation has become a major phenomenon in European cities, thus representing one of the key human land cover changes with socio-economic and environmental impacts. In the Lisbon metropolitan region it is estimated that 17% of natural and farmland have been transformed into artificial areas. Since the end of 1990s, specific EU guidelines have been issued to contain urban sprawl and preserve agricultural land. Spatial planning in Portugal obviously is integrating these assumptions into the statutory land-use master plans. But what is the performance of this land use planning system regarding land cover evolution itself? Based on the Lisbon metropolitan region (LMR), one of the major areas of urban growth in Portugal, we examine spatio-temporal land cover patterns between 1990 and 2007 by integrating cross-matrix analysis, spatial metrics, and gradient analysis. Additionally, we overlay these land cover dynamics with municipal master plans that regulate land development in order to assess the compliance levels of this land-use regulatory system. Results indicate that: artificial areas are growing by coalescence and/or by scattered development along an urban–rural gradient; agricultural land is reducing and fragmentation is increasing to enlarge peri-urban spaces; there are high levels of conversion of agricultural land into urban land in protected areas, thus showing a lack of compliance to the land use regulatory system visible in the existing gaps between the original land-use assignments of the master plan and the actual developments.     

Water resources and land use planning systems in Portugal—Exploring better synergies through Ria de Aveiro

The paper discusses the relevance of a stronger articulation between land use and water resources systems to enhance the success of the Water Framework Directive. Using article 11 of the WFD, this paper assess (i) how the Spatial Planning and Urban Development Law as well as the Portuguese Water Law converge to promote better integration of water resources into spatial planning, (ii) how their prospects are developed at the regional basis, namely through the Regional Spatial Development Plan and River Basin Management Plan, and (iii) how these are prepared to inform other planning instruments at the local level. It shows through a spatial analysis of the regional land-use plan and the river basin plan as applied over the Ria de Aveiro estuary area, the conflicts and opportunities for stronger synergies. The paper concludes with a critical analysis of the integration of the spatial planning and water resources planning systems in Portugal, and reveals new insights and challenges for more productive synergies between these systems.     

How to assess the impact of hope on a change in the use of land on market value?

This article is devoted to common yet quite specific approaches to valuation practice tasks that are involved in determining the market value of real properties in areas of possible land use changes. An intrinsic element of market value in such areas is the hope value, for which an option pricing model is used quite frequently.The authors propose a specially adapted Samuelson-McKean model for this task, which allows market value indication to be determined not only with the built-in development option, but also the dynamics of its components value in the current highest and best use and hope value – depending on the location of the given property. The greatest advantage of the Samuelson-McKean model is that it can be treated as universal for analyzing the range of possible indications of market value seeing as how its main task is to find a compromise between the interests of the buyer and the seller, which is the goal of any fair transactions and decisions.     

Strategic public land use assessment and planning in Victoria,Australia: Four decades of trailblazing but where to from here?

While various attempts have been made to establish strategic environmental assessment (SEA) processes and institutions in various jurisdictions within Australia, the success of these often short lived attempts at institutional approaches for managing public land use conflict has been patchy. The experience in the State of Victoria has been somewhat different, with public land use assessment and planning having been informed by a series of independent statutory bodies since 1970 (the Land Conservation Council, Environment Conservation Council, and Victorian Environmental Assessment Council). These SEA bodies have played a major role in mediating environmental conflict over public land use, and have significantly contributed to the increased size and coverage of Victoria's protected area system. However, while there has always been a statutory body in operation, the roles and responsibilities of these bodies have been subject to significant legislative change, with existing bodies replaced by new bodies in 1997 and 2001. Justifications for these reforms included changing circumstances and new understandings about environmental management, as well as changing views about public administration. As a way of contributing to enhancing the design of institutions and processes for strategic environmental assessment, this paper provides an assessment of Victoria's approach and discusses possible future directions.     

Changing land use in the countryside: Stakeholders’ perception of the ongoing rural planning processes in Flanders

Rural areas in densely populated regions face increasing competition for land. Consequently, land use planning processes must attempt to balance the goals of diverse stakeholders and the process of reaching consensus becomes more complicated. By investigating the perception of the actors involved in rural planning, this research contributes to the knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of such processes. We have focused on the case of rural planning processes in Flanders in which proponents of nature and agriculture are competing for land. Data are collected through open interviews with key actors such as farmers, representatives of nature preservation organisations, farmers’ unions, and employees of the relevant governmental policy areas. Data analysis according to the grounded theory approach resulted in six categories and 26 concepts that represent the stakeholders’ perception of difficulties in the Flemish rural planning approach. Three points where difficulties arise are (1) the link between envisioning, drawing up the plan and implementation, (2) the need for data, and (3) the role of sectors. We use three concepts from literature (procedural justice, distributive justice and value conflicts) to frame the difficulties observed. Based on this analysis, we discuss several ways to improve rural planning processes.     

Land use planning policies and market forces: Utopian aspirations thwarted?

This paper asks the question, to what extent do market forces limit planning policies? It delves into the constraining relationship of market forces on planning by reference to urban policies in the UK. In this context market forces are defined as dominant long term spatial economic trends which promote decentralisation. The essay uses policy case studies to develop its arguments. In general planning is shown to suffer from the lack of a systematic analysis of land use markets. Yet at its heart planning not only regulates/constrains the property market it also shapes and stimulates it. Planning is found to be most successful when it is shaping urban growth and decentralisation. It is a fundamentally different task to stem market flows and the probability of success is very different. Market forces do limit routes to Utopian aspirations but planners need the motivation, understanding and means to work with the market to produce desired outcomes.     

Are municipal land use plans keeping pace with global climate change?

Published research on municipal climate change plans to date has been strictly cross-sectional: it reveals the status of plans at particular points in time, but does not examine whether and how plans are evolving over time to keep pace with our understanding of climate change. We build on a 2011 study of plans in the Canadian province of British Columbia by examining updated versions of those plans as of 2015. We find that the climate change content in the plans did not change much from 2011-2015 and that there is much room for improvement. Our findings suggest that municipalities can possibly strengthen their plans by: (1) investing resources into creating and maintaining a detailed inventory of factual information regarding local climate risk and vulnerability, and (2) fostering political support among elected officials and residents for developing climate change planning goals and implementation mechanisms to help achieve the goals.     

Changes in coastal city ecosystem service values based on land use—A case study of Yingkou,China

The valuation of ecosystem services is intended to facilitate the rational and sustainable utilization of natural resources. However, calculating the values of natural resources is complex, and research is underway in this regard. The change of land use types can reflect the changes in the area of each ecosystem; therefore, in this study, land use changes in Yingkou (located in the south of Liaoning Province and an important port city) over a 10-year period (2004–2014) are assessed using a geographic information systems platform and the 2004, 2009 and 2014 Thematic Mapper remotely sensed images of the area. The Costanza calculation method and classification system are used to estimate changes in the total values of ecosystem services in the Yingkou area from 2004 to 2014 and to investigate the causes of these changes. The “change tendency” of particular ecological communities is calculated using the Variable coefficient, the Gini coefficient, and the Theil index. The results reveal the following: (i) The total value of ecosystem services in the Yingkou area decreased drastically (i.e., from $2567.60 million to $2127.26 million, representing a 17.2% decline) between 2004 and 2014. (ii) Aquatic ecosystem services are valued greater than terrestrial services. In Yingkou, a decline in the value of aquatic ecosystem services accounts for 88.6% of the total decrease in ecosystem service value. (iii) Land reclamation in the Yingkou urban area emerges as the primary factor influencing ecosystem service values for the various ecological communities in the region. The ecosystem service value of each ecological community is different, and the differences between the contributions made by the various communities to the total ecosystem services value are increasing over time. (iv) The decline in ecosystem service values in Yingkou is linked to urban development. Following widespread land reclamation, an increase in land area intended for urban construction is associated with a decrease in water area.     

Logs or permits? Forestry land use decisions in an emissions trading scheme

Negative carbon emissions options are required to meet long-term climate goals in many countries. One way to incentivise these options is by paying farmers for carbon sequestered by forests through an emissions trading scheme (ETS). New Zealand has a comprehensive ETS, which includes incentives for farmers to plant permanent exotic forests. This research uses an economy-wide model, a forestry model and land use change functions to measure the expected proportion of farmers with trees at harvesting age that will change land use from production to permanent forests in New Zealand from 2014 to 2050. We also estimate the impacts on carbon sequestration, the carbon price, gross emissions, GDP and welfare. When there is forestry land use change, the results indicate that the responsiveness of land owners to the carbon price has a measured impact on carbon sequestration. For example, under the fastest land use change scenario, carbon sequestration reaches 29.93 Mt CO₂e by 2050 compared to 23.41 Mt CO₂e in the no land use change scenario (a 28% increase). Even under the slowest land use change scenario, carbon sequestration is 25.89 Mt CO₂e by 2050 (an 11% increase compared with no land use change). This is because, if foresters decide not to switch to permanent forests in 1 year, carbon prices and ultimately incentives to convert to permanent forests will be higher in future years.     

The use of ex-ante modelling tools in European Impact Assessment: What role does land use play?

Impact Assessment was introduced by the European Commission in 2002 in order to make policy development more transparent and improve the ‘quality’ of European policies. Cross-sectoral consultation, broad participation and the quantitative assessment of the impacts of policies are significant elements of this process. This article specifically addresses the role of tools modelling the impact of policies on land use in Impact Assessment. The choice of a specific modelling tool is conceptualised as an action situation interlinked with other action arenas. The article aims to uncover the institutions structuring the action situation. The outcome of the empirical work suggests that two types of Impact Assessments can be distinguished. Impact Assessments either substantively contribute to the specific policy that the Commission proposes or they legitimise policy choices ex post that have already been adopted. The legislative procedure that applies to a specific policy sector, the policy making culture in the DG and the stakes that are at issue seem to influence whether Impact Assessments contribute to policy development, or legitimise it. Furthermore, the article describes the situation in which desk officers choose a modelling tool throughout Impact Assessment. To advance their careers desk officers aim to produce policy proposals which respond to the issues raised by the actors involved in Impact Assessment and specifically in policy development and, later on, adoption. Therefore, desk officers’ preferences are shaped by the community that is involved in policy development and Impact Assessment. The article describes what role modelling tools play in European Impact Assessment procedures and it names the heuristic of criteria which desk officers use to choose a modelling tool. Besides several technical and data problems of modelling land use impact, it seems to be unlikely that land use will become a significant dimension of Impact Assessment and modelling as it is confronted with an unfavourable institutional environment at the European level.