Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Relative agricultural productivity shocks emerging from climate change will alter regional cropland use. Land allocations are sensitive to crop profits that in turn depend on yield effects induced by changes in climate and technology. We develop and apply an integrated framework to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and land use for the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Crop-specific yield–weather models reveal crop comparative advantage due to differential yield impacts of weather across the region's major crops, that is, alfalfa, wheat, soybeans, and maize. We define crop profits as a function of the weather-driven yields, which are then used to model land use allocation decisions. This ultimately allows us to simulate the impact of climate change under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario on land allocated to the region's major crops as well as to grass/pasture. Upon removing the trends effects in yields, climate change is projected to lower yields by 33–64% over 2031–2055 relative to 1981–2005, with soybean being the least and alfalfa the most affected crops. Yield projections applied to the land use model at present-day input costs and output prices reveals that Dakotas’ grass acreage will increase by up to 23%, displacing croplands. Wheat acreage is expected to increase by up to 54% in select southeastern counties of North Dakota and South Dakota, where maize/soy acreage had increased by up to 58% during 1995–2016.     

Geographical downscaling of outputs provided by an economic farm model calibrated at the regional level

There is a strong need for accurate and spatially referenced information regarding policy making and model linkage. This need has been expressed by land users, and policy and decision makers in order to estimate both spatially and locally the impacts of European policy (like the Common Agricultural Policy) and/or global changes on farm-groups. These entities are defined according to variables such as altitude, economic size and type of farming (referring to land uses). European farm-groups are provided through the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) as statistical information delivered at regional level. The aim of the study is to map locally farm-group probabilities within each region. The mapping of the farm-groups is done in two steps: (1) by mapping locally the co-variables associated to the farm-groups, i.e. altitude and land uses; (2) by using regional FADN data as a priori knowledge for transforming land uses and altitude information into farm-groups location probabilities within each region. The downscaling process focuses on the land use mapping since land use data are originally point information located every 18 km. Interpolation of land use data is done at 100 m by using co-variables like land cover, altitude, climate and soil data which are continuous layers usually provided at fine resolution. Once the farm-groups are mapped, European Policy and global changes scenarios are run through an agro-economic model for assessing environmental impacts locally.     

“一带一路”典型区土地利用变化热点区判别与其影响因素

目的 土地利用与覆盖变化是监测区域变化的重要方法,而发生剧烈变化的热点区域更是研究的重要部分,有效识别热点区并分析其影响因素可以为保护土地生态环境、有效利用土地资源提供科学支撑。方法 文章利用欧洲航天局（ESA）气候变化倡议的长期时间序列土地覆盖数据集（CCI-LC）对“一带一路”典型区土地利用与覆盖变化进行分析,根据变化面积、相对变化速率及其聚集程度建立了热点区域的识别方法,并分析了影响因素。结果 （1）根据土地覆盖变化结果表明,1992—2020年“一带一路”典型区内总共有5.46%的面积发生了变化,建设用地净增加面积最多,为24.61万km²,相对变化速率在2000—2010年最高,为76.94%。（2）热点识别结果表明,2000—2010年土地覆盖变化最剧烈,不同时期的热点区域内主要的转型特征不同,1992—2000年主要表现为耕地的增加,2000—2010年主要表现为林地和建设用地面积扩张,2010—2020年主要表现为建设用地面积增多和林地的砍伐与恢复。（3）热点区域集中分布在0~200m的海拔范围内,热点区域内的像元数量随海拔升高不断减少。（4）热带多雨气候区域内热点占比最大,而其他气候类型对热点区域内的像元数量的影响较小。（5）社会经济因素对于热点区域内的像元数量有着显著的影响,其中城市人口数量和国内生产总值最重要,两者结合可以解释全部热点的86.46%。结论 研究探明的热点区域和影响因素可以为“一带一路”典型区土地利用格局演变、区域土地利用规划和土地资源可持续利用提供决策支持。     

Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia

This study compiles and analyses national-level data on land use change (LUC) and its causes in Indonesia and Malaysia over the past 30 years. The study also explores the role that palm oil has played in past LUC and that projected growth in palm oil production may play in LUC until 2020 and suggests strategies to minimize negative effects. Data collection for the study revealed that the quality and quantity of data on LUC on a national scale over time are low. Despite these uncertainties, the overview of past LUC indicates that large changes in land use have occurred in Indonesia and Malaysia. In Indonesia, LUC can primarily be characterized by forest cover loss on 40 million ha (Mha) of land, a 30% reduction in forest land. Deforestation in Malaysia has been smaller in both absolute and relative terms, with a forest cover loss of nearly 5 Mha (20% reduction in forest land). Other large changes in Malaysia occurred in permanent cropland (excluding oil palm), which has decreased rapidly since the early 1990s, and in land under oil palm cultivation, which experienced a sharp increase. Projections of additional land demand for palm oil production in 2020 range from 1 to 28 Mha in Indonesia. The demand can be met to a large extent by degraded land if no further deforestation is assumed. In Malaysia, expansion projections range from 0.06 to 5 Mha, but only the lowest projection of oil palm expansion is feasible when only degraded land may be used. The role of palm oil production in future LUC depends on the size of the projected expansion as well as agricultural management factors such as implementation of best management practices, earlier replanting with higher yielding plants, and establishment of new plantations on degraded land. The current use of degraded land needs to be investigated in order to reduce possible indirect LUC, land tenure conflicts, or other social impacts. In addition to minimizing direct and indirect LUC by the palm oil sector, measures that reduce deforestation triggered by other causes must also be implemented. A key element for doing so is better planning and governance of land use, which entails more appropriate demarcation of forest land and protection of land that still has forest cover, improved monitoring of land use, and more research to uncover the complexities and dynamics of the causes and drivers of LUC.     

中原经济区耕地压力时空演变及驱动因素研究

[目的]严守耕地红线、合理利用和保护耕地资源,保障国家粮食安全。[方法]文章采用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型,分析了2007—2016年中原经济区耕地压力时序变化特征,引入重心转移模型和变异系数,探究耕地压力重心的空间分布及迁移特征,并基于粮食生产因素和社会经济因素双重视角,选取10个指标运用灰色关联分析法对影响中原经济区耕地压力变化的驱动因素进行研究。[结果]2007—2016年中原经济区耕地压力指数呈现阶段性特征,总体处于波动递减的趋势,各地级市耕地压力离散程度和空间差异不断拉大,空间分布不均衡,东西分化趋势显著;耕地压力重心从西北向东南方向迁移,在郑州市区域移动;选取的影响因素指标对耕地压力变化均有影响,关联度大小依次为人均GDP城市化水平农民收入产业结构化肥投入灌溉水平复种指数粮食单产量耕地质量人均耕地面积。[结论]社会经济因素对耕地压力影响显著,是影响耕地压力变动的主导因素。     

Potential of woody biomass production for motivating widespread natural resource management under climate change

In this study we assessed the potential of woody biomass (short-rotation Mallee Eucalypts) for renewable energy generation as an economically viable way of motivating widespread natural resource management under climate change in the 11.9 million ha Lower Murray agricultural region in southern Australia. The spatial distribution of productivity of agricultural crops and pasture, and biomass was modelled. Average annual economic returns were calculated under historical mean (baseline) climate and three climate change scenarios. Economically viable areas of biomass production were identified where the profitability of biomass is greater than the profitability of agriculture under each scenario for three factory gate biomass prices. The benefits of biomass production for dryland salinisation, wind erosion, and carbon emissions reduction through biomass-based renewable energy production were also modelled. Depending on climate scenario, at the median price assessed ($40/tonne) biomass production can generate $51.4–$88 M in annual net economic returns, address 41,226–165,577 ha at high risk of dryland salinisation and 228,000–1.4 million ha at high risk of wind erosion, and mitigate 10.4–12 million tonnes of carbon (CO₂^−e) emissions annually. Economically viable areas for biomass production expanded under climatic warming and drying especially in more marginal agricultural land. Under the baseline, the area at high risk of dryland salinisation was more than double that at high risk of wind erosion. However, under climatic warming and drying the relative importance of these two natural resource management objectives switched with the area at high risk of wind erosion becoming much larger. As biomass production can achieve multiple natural resource management objectives, it may provide a land use policy option that is adaptable to changing priorities and economically resilient given climatic uncertainties. For such a significant and enduring land use change policy it is prudent to assess both the economic and environmental potential under climate change.     

Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling

Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land‐use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land‐use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10–38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change.     

Local biophysical effects of land use and land cover change: towards an assessment tool for policy makers

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) affects the climate through both biogeochemical (BGC) and biophysical (BPH) mechanisms. While BGC effects are assessed at global scale and are at the heart of climate treaties such as the Paris Agreement, BPH effects are totally absent despite their increasingly recognized impact, especially at local scale. This stems from the complexity in characterizing their climate impacts both at local and global scale, which makes it impractical to offer clear advices for the development of climate policies. To overcome this barrier, we built a prototype for an assessment tool to evaluate the local BPH impact of a series of land cover transitions. It relies on a dedicated methodology, based on satellite remote sensing data, that can estimate the local change in near surface air temperature associated with BPH effects of potential LULCC. This tool follows a tiered methodological approach, using transparent methods and mirroring what is currently provided by the IPCC to estimate the BGC effects, i.e. through different levels of increasing methodological complexity, from Tier 1 (i.e. default method and factors) to Tier 2 (i.e. similar to Tier 1 but with higher level of details and complexity) and Tier 3 (i.e. tailored solution to address national circumstances). The prototype tool enables the evaluation of the local impacts of land-related BPH effects, therefore facilitating a scientifically informed and comprehensive assessment of land-based climate policies.     

Evaluating the coupling effects of climate variability and vegetation restoration on ecosystems of the Loess Plateau,China

Restoring disturbed and over-exploited ecosystems is an important part of mitigating human pressures on natural ecosystems. An ambitious ecological restoration program, the Grain for Green Program (GFGP), was launched in 1999 in China. We selected the Loess Plateau (LP) as a case study, and evaluated ecosystem changes between 2000 and 2012 using biophysical models, observation records, and literature data. It was observed that both the warming and wetting of climate and the ecological program promoted vegetation growth and biomass production (i.e., carbon sequestration). Overall ecosystem patterns were relatively stable; grassland, residential land, and forest increased in area, while farmland area decreased slightly. Increasing precipitation throughout the study period was related to fluctuations in soil retention and hydrological regulation. Vegetation restoration induced by climate variability and the ecological program played a significant role in soil retention enhancement, which also substantially reduced sediment load. The land-use conversion in ecological restoration program promoted soil carbon sequestration, but featured differences in conversion types and rainfall zones. The ecosystem changes recorded in the LP, which resulted from both the ecological program and climate variability, might be temporary improvements rather than fundamental ecosystem shifts. The success of this ecological restoration in the LP exemplifies the positive effects of environmental policies and the necessity of adopting an adaptive management approach. However, the current assessment was not comprehensive, as it involved only three dominant regulating services, and there were still trade-offs among multiple ecosystem services. Therefore, a deeper understanding of the interactions and trade-offs among ecosystem services is required to explore in the context of emerging climate change, so as to support environmental management that maximizes ecosystem benefits to human well-being.     

中原现代农业科技示范区耕地保护问题与对策研究

[目的]中原现代农业科技示范区耕地面积占河南全省耕地总面积的45. 5%,是河南省小麦和玉米主产区,文章研究中原区的耕地保护现状和存在的问题,以期对促进中原区耕地保护提供借鉴。[方法]该研究通过时间序列分析、比较分析、空间分析等方法对当前中原区耕地数量分布、耕地质量等耕地资源状况,以及耕地占补平衡、永久基本农田划定与保护、高标准农田建设、耕地确权等耕地保护现状进行了分析。[结果]中原区耕地面积持续减少,未来耕地面积减少之势难逆转;耕地保护力度不够,非法占用耕地问题时有发生;耕地后备资源不足,耕地占补平衡落实难度加大;耕地重用轻管问题仍然突出,农田质量较低;耕地污染问题日益突出。[结论]该研究针对上述问题研究提出了强化耕地管护,确保耕地面积基本稳定;强化耕地建设,提升耕地生产能力;创新土地管理与保护机制等加强耕地资源保护的对策建议。     

Assessing the relationship between land tenure issues and land cover changes around the Arabuko Sokoke Forest in Kenya

Land as an essential resource is becoming increasingly scarce due to population growth. In the case of the Kenyan coast, population pressure causes land cover changes in the Arabuko Sokoke Forest, which is an important habitat for endangered species. Forest and bushland have been changed to agricultural land in order to provide livelihood for the rural population who are highly dependent on small-scale farming. Unclear land rights and misbalanced access to land cause uncontrolled expansion and insecure livelihoods. Secure land rights are crucial to improve living conditions for the local smallholders. Socio-economic and land tenure conditions were assessed in a study area close to Malindi in south-east Kenya to understand the human-induced changes in land cover. A combination between biophysical and socio-economic methods was used to identify the relationship between land cover change, land tenure and other socio-economic factors. Analyses in Geographic Information System (GIS) were chosen to examine in historical photographs and recent satellite imagery land cover changes between 1954 and 2017. This analysis was combined with quantitative questionnaires conducted on-site in 2017 and 2018 to identify factors influencing the land cover changes and especially to analyze the effects of land tenure on sustainable land use to reduce further land conversion. Moreover, this study statistically investigated the impact of land tenure issues on the tree population of the respective land plots using non-parametric tests as well as dependency analyses. We found significant relationships between the income of the interviewees and the tree population on land plots. It also appears that the fragmentation of land cover on a plot differs between respondents who have inherited their land and respondents who have purchased their land.     

云南边境地区近3O年土地利用与覆盖变化研究

利用1976年的MSS、1995年的TM、2004年的TM三个时期遥感影像数据对云南边境地区的土地覆盖动态变化进行监测。选取了土地变化幅度、单一动态度、绝对动态度、综合动态度、土地综合利用程度和马尔柯夫模型六个指标，利用RS、GIS信息技术和数理统计方法，对云南边境地区土地利用的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：土地覆盖主要以林地和裸地为主；土地覆盖变化幅度最显著的是建设用地和农田，而主导变化类型为林地和裸地；土地覆盖变化的主要方向是由林地向裸地和农田转化．     

Shifting patterns of oil palm driven deforestation in Indonesia and implications for zero-deforestation commitments

Oil palm plantations in Indonesia have been linked to substantial deforestation in the 1990s and 2000s, though recent studies suggest that new plantations are increasingly developed on non-forest land. Without nationwide data to establish recent baseline trends, the impact of commitments to eliminate deforestation from palm oil supply chains could therefore be overestimated. We examine the area and proportion of plantations replacing forests across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua up to 2015, and map biophysically suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. We created new maps of oil palm plantations for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, and examined land cover replaced in each period. Nationwide, oil palm plantation expansion occurred at an average rate of 450,000 ha yr⁻¹, and resulted in an average of 117,000 ha yr⁻¹ of deforestation, during 1995–2015. Our analysis of the most recent five-year period (2010–2015) shows that the rate of deforestation due to new plantations has remained relatively stable since 2005, despite large increases in the extent of plantations. As a result, the proportion of plantations replacing forests decreased from 54% during 1995–2000, to 18% during 2010–2015. In addition, we estimate there are 30.2 million hectares of non-forest land nationwide which meet biophysical suitability criteria for oil palm cultivation. Our findings suggest that recent zero-deforestation commitments may not have a large impact on deforestation in Sumatra, where plantations have increasingly expanded onto non-forest land over the past twenty years, and which hosts large potentially suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. On the other hand, these pledges could have more influence in Kalimantan, where oil palm driven deforestation increased over our study period, and in Papua, a new frontier of expansion with substantial remaining forest cover.     

2000—2018年西辽河流域植被覆盖度时空变化特征及影响因素研究

目的 研究“退耕还林”“退牧还草”及“镰刀弯”等生态政策实施以来西辽河流域植被覆盖时空变化趋势及驱动因素，探究各类驱动因子对区域植被覆盖的影响，为区域生态建设和环境保护提供参考。方法 文章采用像元二分模型，估算西辽河流域植被覆盖度，归纳了植被覆盖变化的驱动因素，利用一元线性回归和Pearson相关系数等方法，定性定量分析2000—2018年西辽河流域植被覆盖时空变化趋势及其与气候、地形、农村居民点分布和土地利用变化等驱动因子的响应关系。结果 19年来，西辽河流域植被覆盖度呈波动增加趋势。分区看，农区植被覆盖度最高，其次是半农半牧区，牧区植被覆盖度最低。全区植被覆盖空间变化趋势较为稳定，96.63%面积植被覆盖无明显变化，2.07%面积植被覆盖极显著改善，1.30%面积植被覆盖显著改善，基本无退化区域。结论 （1）植被覆盖度与降水、气温因子正向相关，降水对植被覆盖度的影响高于气温。（2）高程、坡度和农村居民点密度均与植被覆盖度正向相关，其中农区人类农业种植活动正向促进作用要大于生产建设活动的负向抑制作用。（3）林地和作物种植面积长势的增加促进了全区植被覆盖的改善。“退耕还林”和“镰刀弯”生态实施促进了全区植被覆盖的改善，但“退牧还草”生态工程效益有待提高。应注重区域植被覆盖变化监测与预警，充分发挥生态政策的积极导向作用，优化生态工程实施结构，提高生态脆弱区抵御风险能力。     

Dynamics and changes in spatial patterns of land use in Yellow River Basin,China

Rapid land use change has taken place in many arid and semi-arid regions of China over the past decade, such as in Yellow River Basin. In this paper, changes in the land use pattern of the Yellow River Basin were analyzed using Landsat TM data in 1990, 1995 and 2000. The aim was to improve the understanding of changes in land use with a view to identifying potentially more sustainable systems of land use. Firstly, the mathematical methodology was explored and developed for spatial pattern changes of land use, which include the degree index model of land use dynamic, index model of land use degree, mean center model of land use and transformation model of land use. Based on these models, the changing spatial patterns of land use were calculated and analyzed. During the period 1990–2000, the areas of cropland, built-up land and unused land all increased, the area of cropland increased dramatically by 2917 km², while the areas of grassland and woodland decreased by 4668 and 33 km², respectively. Meanwhile, the spatial pattern of land use also experienced a great change. Then the driving factors of land use change were investigated, the governmental policies on eco-environmental protection, population growth and meteorological conditions were the major factors that caused the land use change in the past decade.     

Changes in land requirements for food in the Philippines: A historical analysis

Land for food production is limited. We investigate how land demand for food develops as populations grow, diets change and agricultural practices become more intensive. The Philippines provide an excellent case: during the 20th century population grew tenfold implying similar increases in basic dietary needs. To quantify occurring changes, we link average dietary patterns to their arable land requirements. For this, we utilize data on population, dietary patterns and crop yields from 1910 to 2003. While average per capita food supply improved during the century, the amount of land required to feed a person declined, albeit not continuous: it was at about 2500 m² in 1910, at 2000 m² in 1960, at 1000 m² in 1985, and did not change greatly since then. Accounting for population growth, this translates to a fourfold increase in total land required for food from 1910 to 2003. When investigating what drove the observed developments at national level, we find that in the first half of 20th century population growth was linked to increased land requirements, before strong increases in yields were enabling constant land requirements for about two decades. Recently, the combined effect of dietary change and population growth led again to increased land requirements for food. Different yield developments in individual crops caused shifts in the relative land requirements of different food items. Our findings suggest that developments in land requirements for food and underlying factors are often non-linear. Caution is warranted when discussing futures of global food supply, based on assumptions of linear or continuous trends.     

Land‐use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro‐economic model comparison

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land‐use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro‐economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub‐Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.     

Effect of land-use conversion on C and N distribution in aggregate fractions of soils in the southern Loess Plateau,China

The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of grassland (GL) conversion to cropland (CL) and cropland conversion to forest (FL) and orchard (OL) on soil C and N distribution in dry aggregate size fractions in Nihegou catchment of the southern Loess Plateau, China. Four main land-use changes were analyzed in different agronomic management systems in 2006. The soil is wind-deposited loessial parent materials with a rather homogeneous silty clay loam texture classified as Calcic Cambosols. The GL was long-term over-used grassland. The CL was changed from GL after 33 years tillage with conventional tillage and fertilizer. The FL and OL originated from long-term CL after 23- and 7-year planted, respectively. Samples were taken at soil depths of 0–20 cm and 20–50 cm and were subjected to a physical fractionation process by way of aggregate size. Soil aggregate size fractions, total C and N contents and distributions were determined on all soil samples. Three dry aggregate fractions of very coarse (2.0–0.2 mm), coarse (0.2–0.05 mm) and fine (<0.05 mm) were obtained by shaking and sieving for 20 min. After 33 years of tillage, CL had 22% lower content of very coarse aggregates (2.0–0.2 mm) and 34% higher contents of fine aggregates (<0.05 mm) than GL. FL and OL soils had increased 9% and 10% contents of very coarse aggregates, and decreased 2% and 8% contents of fine aggregates compared to the CL. C and N losses in whole CL soils were 31% and 26% higher than those in GL. However, conversion of land uses from CL to FL (after 23 years) and OL (after 7 years) has increased C and N stocks by 76% and 40% in FL soils and by 66% and 63% in OL soils, respectively. This accessorial C and N stocks were higher in very coarse aggregate fractions (1.10 kg C m⁻² and 0.13 kg N m⁻² in FL soils, 1.43 kg C m⁻² and 0.17 kg N m⁻² in OL soils); moreover, the C and N stocks in fine aggregate fraction increased by 8% and 33% in FL soils and by 58% and 69% in OL soils, respectively. This results showed that C and N turnover and loss in aggregate fractions of this silty clay loam soils was very fast. Conversion of land uses from CL to FL and OL has obviously recovered the soil structure, and improved soil quality.     

An Empirical Analysis of Acreage Effects of Participation in the Federal Crop Insurance Program

The extent to which crop insurance programs have resulted in additional land being brought into production has been a topic of considerable debate. We consider multiequation structural models of acreage response, insurance participation, CRP enrollment, and input usage. Our analysis focuses on corn and soybean production in the Corn Belt and wheat and barley production in the Upper Great Plains. Our results confirm that increased participation in insurance programs provokes statistically significant acreage responses in some cases, though the response is very modest in every case. In the most extreme cases, 30% decreases in premiums as a result of increased subsidies provoke acreage increases ranging from 0.2% to 1.1%. A number of policy simulations involving increases in premium subsidies are considered.     

Mapping mountain diversity: Ethnic minorities and land use land cover change in Vietnam's borderlands

In the complex agro-ecological conditions of Vietnam's northern borderlands, attempts by ethnic minority farmers to create sustainable livelihoods, along with the impacts of state development policies, have direct consequences for land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this paper we analyse the degree to which LULC has changed and diversified from 1999 to 2009 in Lào Cai Province and the underlying relationships with ethnic minority livelihood diversification strategies. We examine the correlation between LULC diversity and various socioeconomic and biophysical proxies using a spatial autoregressive model. Our findings indicate two major changes in LULC: an increase in closed canopy forest and substantial urban growth. LULC diversity increased between 1999 and 2009, suggesting a transition between land uses and/or a diversification of livelihood strategies. Socioeconomic proxies are significant predictors of LULC diversity in both years, while biophysical proxies are only effective predictors in 2009. In-depth interviews regarding state-led policies and ethnic minority livelihoods reveal some of the underlying mechanisms of such LULC transitions and associations.