Farmer-specific relationships between land use change and landscape factors: Introducing agents in empirical land use modelling

Traditional empirical land use change models generally assume one average land use decision-maker. Multi-Agent System (MAS) models, on the other hand, acknowledge existence of different types of agents, but their poor empirical embedding remains a serious handicap. This paper demonstrates how agent information can also be incorporated into empirical, biophysical land use models.     

Analysing how drivers of agricultural land abandonment affect biodiversity and cultural landscapes using case studies from Scandinavia,Iberia and Oceania

Agricultural land abandonment (ALA) is widespread in many countries of the global north. It impacts rural communities, traditional landscapes, biodiversity and ecosystem services. It is an opportunity for ecosystem restoration or new landscape functions. We explored ALA in study areas in Australia, Portugal and Sweden. In each, we assessed plant species diversity, historical trajectories of land cover change; and the socioeconomic past, present and future in interviews with farmers. The ALA data was integrated and analysed by identifying the drivers of change. The relative importance of each driver and its scale of action was estimated, both in the past (1950–2010) and in the future (2010–2030). ALA has transformed rural landscapes in the study areas of Portugal and Sweden. It is at a much earlier stage with potential to increase in the Australian case. We identified a set of driving forces, classified into pressures, frictions and attractors that clarify why ALA, noting its temporal and spatial scale, occurs differently in each study area. The effect of the drivers is related to social and historical contexts. Pressures and attractors encouraging agricultural abandonment are strongest in Portugal and Sweden. Generally more (institutionalized) frictions are in place in these European sites, intended to prevent further change, based on the benefits assumed for biodiversity and aesthetics. In Australia, the stimulation of driving forces to promote a well-managed abandonment of some cleared areas could be highly beneficial for biodiversity, minimally disruptive for current dairy farming operations and would bring opportunities for alternative types of rural development.     

Identifying the driving forces of non-grain production expansion in rural China and its implications for policies on cultivated land protection

The rapid expansion of non-grain production (NGP) on cultivated land is of increasing concern regarding grain security in China. Characterizing the developmental mechanism of different NGP types and their responses to current policies is essential for providing critical references for the improvement of cultivated land protection policy. This study was conducted to explore the driving forces of NGP expansion in Tongxiang during three periods (2000–2008, 2008–2012, and 2012–2015). We first mapped the distributions of four types of NGP using multi-temporal high-resolution aerial photos. Then, we identified the driving forces of different NGP types at the parcel level using multinomial logistic regression modelling with geophysical, proximate, neighbourhood and policy variables. Our results showed that the total NGP area in Tongxiang increased from 31.16 ha to 2491.84 ha from 2000 to 2015. Farming conditions, such as soil type and distance to rivers, contributed more than settlements networks to the expansion of NGP in the Tongxiang region. A continuous and significant neighbourhood effect was found among pond fish farming, nursery plantations and duck rearing, demonstrating the strong stimulation of converted NGP parcels to surrounding farmers. Surprisingly, the implementation of policies such as basic farmland and standardized farmland failed to inhibit and actually encouraged NGP expansion. The planning of the main-functional region of grain production had a positive effect on inhibiting the expansion of some NGP types at certain stages. Our study provides valuable insights into the driving forces of NGP expansion at the parcel level and its response to current policies. This study supplements existing research to fully understand the phenomenon of NGP from the perspective of land use decision-making.     

Intensity and spatial pattern of urban land changes in the megacities of Southeast Asia

Knowledge about intensity and spatial pattern of urban land changes (ULCs), i.e., changes from non-built-up to built-up lands, is important to a wide range of issues, from understanding of human–environment interactions and provision of urban ecosystem services, to land use policy development for landscape and urban planning toward sustainable urbanization. In this context, this paper aims to provide better understanding of the geospatial dimensions of the urbanization and landscape changes in two megacities of Southeast Asia. Specifically, we examine and compare the intensities and spatial patterns of ULCs in Metro Manila, Philippines and Bangkok Metropolitan Region (Bangkok MR), Thailand, during the 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 periods, using remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and techniques. In the measurement of ULC intensity, an intensity scale is proposed to determine whether the rate of ULC during a particular time interval, i.e., 1990–2000 or 2000–2010, relative to the uniform intensity that is based on the whole time extent, i.e., 1990–2010, is very slow, slow, medium slow/fast, fast and very fast. To characterize the spatial patterns of ULCs, the concepts of the diffusion-coalescence urban growth theory were applied. The results revealed that for Metro Manila, its ULC was more intense during the 1990s (fast) than in the 2000s (slow). For Bangkok MR, it was more intense during the 2000s (medium fast) than during the 1990s (medium slow). The results also revealed that Metro Manila has been in the process of coalescence, while Bangkok MR is still largely in the process of diffusion and expansion. In this paper, we also discuss some of the possible factors influencing ULC intensity trends and spatial patterns, the advantages of the methods used for ULC analysis and some land use policy-related development plans for the two megacities.     

Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: An assessment of 42 Indian cities

Urban development induced land transitions affect urban hydrology, resulting in increased flooding risks. Climate change-related precipitation changes are an added complexity to the flood risks of cities. This study examines the role of land use changes in determining the occurrence of urban flooding events across 42 Indian cities under current and future climate change scenarios. Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017 have been processed using a hybrid classification technique to determine the land use shares for all cities. A typical event-count study using newspaper archives has been conducted to create a flooding event database. A multilevel model employing logistic mixed-effects approach was used. Future projections of the occurrence of flooding events for nine models under three climate change-related Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—2.6, 4.5, and 8.5—and three urban development scenarios have been carried out. The results suggest that cities should preserve the land uses that act as a sponge—the green, open and blue spaces. As these spaces decrease, the projected flooding events increase. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the number of flooding events is significantly lower (95 % confidence) than under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The expected flooding occurrences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are not significantly different (95 % confidence) for many scenarios, suggesting that Indian cities should aim for a world temperature increase of below 2 °C, or devastating consequences are imminent. This study highlights the need for Indian cities to undertake integrated spatial planning measures for a resilient, sustainable urban future.     

Conversion of agricultural and forest land to other purposes in the context of land protection: Evidence from Polish experience

The protection of agricultural land and forests is a relatively new concept in Poland, and it began with forest protection in the 1920s. The first regulations on the protection of agricultural land were introduced only in the 1960s. Agricultural land and forests received comprehensive protection pursuant to the provisions of the Act of 26 October 1977 on the protection of agricultural land, forests and land recultivation. This legal act set the foundations for the protection of farmland and forests in successive decades.The aim of this study was to determine the influence of farmland and forest protection on spatial planning and to highlight the loss of agricultural and forest land resulting from conversion to other purposes. Legal regulations pertaining to spatial planning and the protection of agricultural and land forests were analysed. The scale of the problem was identified, and future land-use types were forecast based on the data developed by Statistics Poland (GUS). The existing spatial plans (municipal master plan - MMP) were analysed to determine the conversion loss index (CLI) associated with the conversion of agricultural land and forests to other uses. Legal regulations pertaining to the protection of agricultural land and forests were also analysed, and the extent of the relevant conversion measures was determined. The study demonstrated that urban development and the inevitable urbanization of rural areas contribute to the loss of agricultural and forest land that are converted to other uses.     

Urbanization strategies, rural development and land use changes in China: A multiple-level integrated assessment

This paper links urbanization strategies to changes in land use and associated impacts on rural communities and agro-ecosystems in a rural area of China. Energy, monetary and human time variables as well as information on environmental pressures, have been combined to compare different typologies of households and the metabolism of different patterns of land use from an integrated perspective. The results show that urbanization strategies, aimed at shifting the current land use and at displacing the local population, while increasing the economic efficiency is also associated with an increase in fossil energy consumption and environmental pressure, as well as a reduction of the multifunctional characteristic of the area under investigation. Based on these findings the paper also offers a critical discussion of the Chinese rural development policy arguing that the multifunctionality of rural areas should be taken into account by Chinese policy-makers and planners as a viable strategy to achieve rural development targets.     

Land change in the Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado), 1986–2002: Comparative analysis and implications for land-use policy

The Brazilian Cerrado, a biodiverse savanna ecoregion covering 1.8 million km² south and east of the Amazon rainforest, is in rapid decline because of the expansion of modern agriculture. Previous studies of Cerrado land-use and land-cover (LULC) change imply spatial homogeneity, report widely varying rates of land conversion, use ambiguous LULC categories, and generally do not attempt to validate results. This study addresses this gap in the literature by analyzing moderate-resolution, multi-spectral satellite remote sensing data from 1986 to 2002 in two regions with identical underlying drivers. Unsupervised classification by the ISODATA algorithm indicates that Cerrado was converted to agro-pastoral land covers in 31% (3646 km²) of the study region in western Bahia and 24% (3011 km²) of the eastern Mato Grosso study region, while nearly 40% (4688 km² and 5217 km², respectively) of each study region remained unchanged. Although aggregate land change is similar, large and contiguous fragments persist in western Bahia, while smaller fragments remain in eastern Mato Grosso. These findings are considered in the current context of Cerrado land-use policy, which is dominated by the conservation set-aside and command-control policy models. The spatial characteristics of Cerrado remnants create considerable obstacles to implement the models; an alternative approach, informed by countryside biogeography, may encourage collaboration between state officials and farmer-landowners toward conservation land-use policies.     

Loss of water availability and stream biodiversity under land abandonment and climate change in a Mediterranean catchment (Olzinelles,NE Spain)

In the north rim of the Mediterranean region, where forest cover is increasing as a result of land abandonment and temperatures are rising as a result of climate change, there is increasing interest for the effects of such changes on the runoff of water courses. This is a paramount issue for the conservation of many freshwater habitats and species. In this work we studied the effects of both an increase in forest cover after depopulation and land abandonment and an increase in temperature on the runoff of a Mediterranean catchment and on the aquatic and semi-aquatic fauna species of the stream (Olzinelles valley, NE Spain). Although in our simulation no decreasing trend in runoff is detected, the monthly runoff-rainfall ratio is now 15% lower than 30 years ago, a fact that may be attributed to a drier period rather than to the small afforestation experienced by the catchment in the last decades. Other factors such as increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and increasing canopy cover are discussed. The observed decrease in the water flow has caused the disappearance of white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes), Mediterranean barbel (Barbus meridionalis), chub (Squalius cephalus), European eel (Anguilla anguilla), and southern water vole (Arvicola sapidus). Our results suggest that in a progressively warmer climate, and especially after land abandonment processes, management of Mediterranean mountain areas should be oriented towards an appropriate distribution of agrarian and forest land-covers in terms of water availability. Down to the stream scale, the pools that keep water throughout the year should be conserved and extended to enhance its potential to maintain aquatic and semi-aquatic species populations.     

Toward a systemic monitoring of the European bioeconomy: Gaps,needs and the integration of sustainability indicators and targets for global land use

The contribution of the EU bioeconomy to sustainable development depends on how it is implemented. A high innovation potential is accompanied by considerable risks, in particular regarding the exacerbation of global land use conflicts. This article argues that a systemic monitoring system capable of connecting human-environment interactions and multiple scales of analysis in a dynamic way is needed to ensure that the EU bioeconomy transition meets overarching goals, like the Sustainable Development Goals. The monitoring should be centered around a dashboard of key indicators and targets covering environmental, economic, and social aspects of the bioeconomy. With a focus on the land dimension, this article examines the strengths and weakness of different economic, environmental and integrated models and methods for monitoring and forecasting the development of the EU bioeconomy. The state of research on key indicators and targets, as well as research needs to integrate these aspects into existing modeling approaches, are assessed. The article concludes with key criteria for a systemic bioeconomy monitoring system.     

Progressive fragmentation of a traditional Mediterranean landscape by hazelnut plantations: The impact of CAP over time in the Langhe region (NW Italy)

Land use change is strongly modifying the traditional landscape of hilly productive Mediterranean sites. An example of these circumstances is the Langhe region (Piemonte, NW Italy), where woody plantations such as vineyards and orchards have been cultivated on hillslopes for centuries. In this paper we assess landscape changes occurred in the Diano study area (2651 ha) in the 1954–2000 period and we ascertain land use transition paths and rates of this rural ecosystem. Land use mapping obtained from object-oriented analysis of aerial photographs was used to quantify land use changes between 1954 and 2000. To examine the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change over time, a set of spatial statistics capturing different dimensions of landscape change was identified. An increase of landscape heterogeneity from 1954 to the present was observed due to the expansion of orchards and the fragmentation of field crops. A significant portion (55%) of current orchards surface is represented by former field crops, 24% by vineyards and 15% by forests. The strong expansion of hazelnut orchards concurred to the fragmentation of traditional rural landscape was dominated by vineyards, field crops and forests. Hazelnut orchards expansion was mainly located in places where grapes cultivation was less remunerative. A further expansion of hazelnut in the area should be planned, discussed and carefully monitored through change detection studies in order to avoid potential unsustainable use of the land.     

Smallholder participation in the land rental market in a mountainous region of Southern China: Impact of population aging,land tenure security and ethnicity

Rural land rental markets in China play an increasingly important role in the transformation of the agricultural sector. This study focuses on the rural land rental market in the Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture in Southern China, a mountainous region, where rapid changes in land use have taken place with the transition from traditional agriculture and a tropical rainforest to rubber monoculture. Notably, we assess the impacts of population aging, land tenure security, and ethnicity on the participation of smallholders in the land rental market. The analysis suggests that a higher proportion of older people in a household increases the likelihood of renting out land and reduces the probability of renting in land, implying that population aging fosters land rental market development by transferring land from older to younger farmers. We also confirm that the availability of a land tenure certificate has a significant and positive impact on the renting out of land. Furthermore, ethnic minority groups are less likely to rent out land, indicating that land rental markets are ethnic sensitive. Additionally, specialization in rubber farming, household wealth and the altitude of household location also influence participation in the land rental market.     

Spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of construction land change in a poverty-stricken county of China and implications for poverty-alleviation-oriented land use policies

Sustainable land use, targeted poverty alleviation (TPA) and integrated urban/town development are key issues for the poverty-stricken counties of China. This paper explored the spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of construction land change in Longzhou, a typical poverty-stricken border county in southwest China, based on high-resolution remote sensing images and field investigations. The results showed that, from 2011 to 2016, the construction land in Longzhou increased by 10.08%. The largest increase shown by urban built-up areas (37.74%) followed by rural residential (25.48%), industrial and mining (20.96%), and transportation areas (15.49%) as well by tourist facility areas (0.33%). The accelerated urban development, rural housing construction, and construction of industrial parks and transportation facilities are main factors driving construction land expansion, while the implementation of TPA strategy and the booming of border trade activities are important policy drivers of the construction land expansion. Some of the major implications for improving poverty-alleviation-oriented land use policies were further discussed. The authors argue that land use policy innovation could play a key role in breaking the Matthew effect (poor get poorer, rich get richer) of China's uneven regional development and generating and accelerating the transformation development of poverty-stricken counties. It is fundamental to meet the demand of construction land for TPA, meanwhile raise the intensive level of land utilization. The authors suggest that the government need to further improve and implement preferential land use policies for poverty-stricken counties from the provincial level, appropriately increase the quotas of construction land, and effectively strengthen the rational, efficient and intensive use of the quotas of construction land, and provide solid land policy support for poverty alleviation and thus achieve the Sustainable Development Goals with higher quality.     

Causal chains,policy trade offs and sustainability: Analysing land (mis)use in seven countries in the South

The need to enhance sustainable development of land use is more urgent than ever; specifically in developing countries where poverty and land degradation are often interlinked. To promote a common understanding of land use problems by experts, stakeholders and decision makers, it is essential to understand the system characteristics, including the complex feedbacks between drivers and impacts. To enhance sustainable development, appropriate policies need to be identified. In this paper, we analysed and compared seven case studies in Kenya, Mali, Tunisia, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil, representing different biophysical and socio-economic conditions and challenges. We analysed Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) story lines of the land use problems, policy priorities and value trade-offs as identified by stakeholders and experts in National Policy Forums. Important drivers of land use change impacting main land use problems among the case studies were economic growth, technological development, immigration and agricultural intensification, in addition to existing policies. Of the latter the most important were related to domestic support through various forms of subsidies or access to credit, land tenure polices and liberalization policies. In the policy prioritization, the value trade-offs made by the National Policy Forums emphasize the environment rather than increased economic production. It is recognized that the environment needs to be improved to maintain and improve economic production in the long term, both in agriculture and in other sectors.     

Global food demand,productivity growth,and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach

In the coming decades, an increasing competition for global land and water resources can be expected, due to rising demand for food and bio‐energy production, biodiversity conservation, and changing production conditions due to climate change. The potential of technological change in agriculture to adapt to these trends is subject to considerable uncertainty. In order to simulate these combined effects in a spatially explicit way, we present a model of agricultural production and its impact on the environment (MAgPIE). MAgPIE is a mathematical programming model covering the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types in 10 economic regions worldwide at a spatial resolution of three by three degrees, i.e., approximately 300 by 300 km at the equator. It takes regional economic conditions as well as spatially explicit data on potential crop yields and land and water constraints into account and derives specific land‐use patterns for each grid cell. Shadow prices for binding constraints can be used to valuate resources for which in many places no markets exist, especially irrigation water. In this article, we describe the model structure and validation. We apply the model to possible future scenarios up to 2055 and derive required rates of technological change (i.e., yield increase) in agricultural production in order to meet future food demand.     

Land use conversion in metropolitan areas and the permanence of agriculture: Sensitivity Index of Agricultural Land (SIAL), a tool for territorial analysis

In the past few years, urban growth has affected vast agricultural areas, especially in some European regions (EEA, 2006). In peri-urban areas, land consumption is particularly intense, exposing agriculture to the risk of land loss. Assuming the action of different factors, both exogenous and endogenous, on the agricultural system, the potential risk of land use conversion is measured by the Sensitivity Index of Agricultural Land (SIAL), an innovative tool for territorial analysis. In the following paper, the SIAL will be presented with an application for a metropolitan area. In this case study, the exogenous variables of urban proximity seem to be those most involved in the processes of conversion from agricultural to urban land use.     

Temporal and spatial variability of agricultural land loss in relation to policy and accessibility in a low hilly region of southeast China

The temporal and spatial patterns in land use change in a low hilly region in southeast of China was analyzed from maps of converted agricultural land for 1999–2006. The factors driving farm land conversion was analyzed using logistic regression models. The amount of agricultural land loss varied temporally, and the spatial distribution of converted agricultural land patches decreased from low to high altitudes in the study area. Analysis using logistic regression models showed that good accessibility sped up the conversion of agricultural land to other uses, the elevation of a parcel lowered the risk of conversion, and agricultural land conversions are highly correlated with its adjacent or neighboring parcels’ land use, with the probability of being converted decreasing as the distance to nearest construction land increases. In addition, land use policy, especially the land use regulation policy issued by the central government decreased the agricultural land loss, and the more stringent regulation on cultivated land conversion lowered the possibility of conversion from cultivated land to other use.     

Dynamics of agricultural land use change in Kerala: a policy and social-ecological perspective

Land-use change is a phenomenon highlighting significant shifts in human interaction with the natural environment. Different patterns of agriculture and a trend towards non-agricultural land use challenge the sustainability of farming systems. This study aims to identify the causes of changes in land use and cropping patterns, with a special focus on paddy, the staple crop in Asia. In the case of Wayanad, a district in Kerala, South India, we argue for an interdisciplinary analysis of rapid land-use change to unpack the multiple dimensions of sustainability: economic, ecological and social factors, aggregating up to 70% reduction in the area under paddy by 2010. The results rest on empirical field research, participatory rural appraisals and stakeholder workshops conducted during the 4-year period from 2010 to 2013, along with state- and district-level data covering the 1983–2011 period. Reduced economic viability, labour shortages and population pressure on land are the major drivers for the transformation of paddy fields to other land uses. Changes in land use and agrarian structure reflect not only the livelihood strategies adopted by farmers in response to these drivers, but also the impacts of unintended policy idiosyncrasies. At a more fundamental level, they are the consequences of policy conflicts and inadequate sectoral integration of policies and implementation strategies.     

Consistent Estimation of a Censored Demand System and Welfare Analysis: The 2012 VAT Reform in Spain

This paper analyses the effects that the 2012 VAT reform in Spain had on households’ welfare, focusing on a major expenditure group: food and non‐alcoholic beverages. Households’ demands are modeled as a two‐stage Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, which is then estimated by means of a consistent two‐step estimator introduced in Tauchmann ( 2010 ) and not previously used in studies of this type. This procedure allows consistent imposition of the traditional parameter restrictions that utility maximisation requires in the context of a censored model. Our results show that the welfare loss and the increment in the tax bill increase with income. We also show that expenditure on food and non‐alcoholic beverages grows less than proportionately with income. Consequently, households with lower income experience a greater welfare loss relative to their income levels. In short, the 2012 VAT reform in Spain, focusing on this expenditure group, can be considered as regressive.     

Landownership Distribution,Socio‐Economic Precariousness and Empowerment: The Role of Small Peasants in Maresme County (Catalonia,Spain) from 1850 to the 1950s

I present fresh data that show the leading role played by smallholder peasants in land‐use intensification, technical improvement and landscape transformation in Maresme County (province of Barcelona, Spain) between 1850 and the 1950s. As a reaction to their precarious situation, caused by an unequal landownership distribution (which is assessed by looking at the minimum‐income and maximum workable farm sizes), smallholders drove agrarian changes in this coastal Mediterranean area. The results of their individual efforts, and their collective action through social mobilization and cooperatives, entailed a socio‐economic and political improvement, especially in denser populated areas closer to markets, until the arrival of Franco's regime.