Microdata: a critical source for policy evaluation

The FLINT project (Farm Level Indicators for New Topics in policy evaluation) was aimed at testing the feasibility of collecting data on the sustainability performance of farms through the European Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). The project defined a list of sustainability themes based on an assessment of policy needs, the existing literature and a review of national initiatives to measure sustainability. Data were collected in nine Member States (Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain) from 1,100 farms of different types. Although some problems were encountered, mainly due to the initial pilot project character of FLINT, we conclude that data collection is feasible, whatever the way a Member State has organised its data collection for FADN. The FLINT project has investigated options for upscaling the results from 9 to 28 Member States to create a representative panel with farm‐level sustainability data. This leads to the conclusion that the most attractive option is to reduce the current FADN sample in order to provide the sustainability data that are urgently needed for improved policy evaluation. This could be done without sacrificing information on other important indicators, such as income from farming.     

A rural typology for strategic European policies

The role that the agricultural sector plays in rural areas has considerably changed in the last five decades, and is reflected in a major shift towards multi-dimensional, multi-sectoral land use. Existing European rural typologies are mostly one-dimensional, based on a rather coarse administrative scale data and are unable to define adequately the diversity of the regions involved. The rural typology presented in this paper has been produced as a response to a new policy need for typologies addressing the diversity in regional rurality. This paper describes the method developed and explores the relevance of the results for future rural policies. This new rural typology incorporates two dimensions identified by statistical screening of a range of geographical and socioeconomic data related to the territorial variation of European rural land. The use of high-resolution raster data at 1 km² resolution provides large flexibility for the construction of individual classifications, with a variable number of classes for a variety of objectives. In the example presented, nine divisions were produced, which were subsequently summarised into three rural classes termed Peri-urban, Rural and Deep Rural. The rural typology enables the consistent identification of comparable rural areas and intergradations with urban land in the European territory, and describes the degree of generalisation that is possible. In addition, it provides a spatially explicit framework for scientific analysis and communication to both European policy makers and local stakeholders.     

The Land Use Impacts of the EU Biodiesel Policy: Assessing the Direct,Indirect and Induced Effects

This paper deals with the controversial measure of indirect land use changes of the European biodiesel policy. Two studies sponsored by the European Commission find significant, but contrasted, land use impacts for the different vegetable oils used for biodiesel production. The first study uses an aggregate computable general equilibrium model capturing direct, indirect and induced effects. The second more recent study uses a biotechnical partial equilibrium model providing a detailed representation of the indirect effects occurring through the livestock sectors. We develop an original economic emulator to understand the diverging key results of these studies and test their sensitivity. We find that the direct and indirect effects on vegetable oil and land markets explain most of the differences. We also find that indirect effects on the feed markets and the induced effects have less influence on the biodiesel results. We finally argue that the development of emulators as done here can help to understand complex policy assessments.     

Land change variability and human-environment dynamics in the United States Great Plains

Land use and land cover changes have complex linkages to climate variability and change, biophysical resources, and socioeconomic driving forces. To assess these land change dynamics and their causes in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary changes across 16 ecoregions using Landsat satellite data and statistical analysis. Large-area change analysis of agricultural regions is often hampered by change detection error and the tendency for land conversions to occur at the local-scale. To facilitate a regional-scale analysis, a statistical sampling design of randomly selected 10 km × 10 km blocks is used to efficiently identify the types and rates of land conversions for four time intervals between 1973 and 2000, stratified by relatively homogenous ecoregions. Nearly 8% of the overall Great Plains region underwent land-use and land-cover change during the study period, with a substantial amount of ecoregion variability that ranged from less than 2% to greater than 13%. Agricultural land cover declined by more than 2% overall, with variability contingent on the differential characteristics of regional human-environment systems. A large part of the Great Plains is in relatively stable land cover. However, other land systems with significant biophysical and climate limitations for agriculture have high rates of land change when pushed by economic, policy, technology, or climate forcing factors. The results indicate the regionally based potential for land cover to persist or fluctuate as land uses are adapted to spatially and temporally variable forcing factors.     

Sustainability impact assessment using integrated meta-modelling: Simulating the reduction of direct support under the EU common agricultural policy (CAP)

Assessing the impact of macro-level policy driven land use changes on regional sustainability is an important task that can facilitate complex decision making processes of introducing reforms. The research work demonstrates the ability of Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT), a meta-model, in conducting ex ante spatially explicit cross sectoral impact assessments of changes in common agricultural policy (CAP). The meta-model is able to appraise impacts of CAP amendments on land use and their repercussions on multiple indicators of sustainability. The presented study comprehensively analyses the possible impacts of discontinuing direct financial support to farmers under CAP. The simulations of the meta-model are able to reveal the land use changes both at EU and regional levels as well as to bring forth the subsequent changes in a number of indicators representing the regional sustainability (for five case study regions). In a nutshell, the simulations indicate that a reduction in direct support brings in general, a decrease in farmed area, an increase in forested land, less fluctuation in natural vegetation coverage, increase in abandoned arable land area and negligible changes in built-up area despite regionally diverging land use trends. The simulated changes in sustainability indicators for the study regions in consequence to these land use changes show that the discontinuation of subsidies evokes responses that are in general climate friendly (reduction in methane and N₂O emissions, diminishing energy use and reduction in global warming potential), economically beneficial (increase in gross value of agriculture) and socially desired (decrease in unemployment rate) as well as environmentally harmful (increase in pesticide use). Even though the appraisals of diversity indicators such as forest deadwood and farmland birds are not conclusive for all regions, the changes are positive for the former indicator and slightly negative for the latter in general. The trade-offs among these regional sustainability indicators using their directional associations are also presented for a comprehensive assessment of the impacts.     

Environmental impact assessment of urban land use transitions—A context-sensitive approach

Land consumption due to residential development, economic growth and transportation belongs to the most serious environmental pressures on landscapes worldwide, in particular in urbanised areas. Accordingly, the aim of containing the development of land is rated increasingly high on the agenda of environmental policy, at least in densely populated countries such as Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands or the UK. As a result, different strategies and instruments to prevent excessive land consumption are being discussed. However, many of these strategies and instruments adopt a rather general approach, while it seems more effective to define the particular areas where the goal of reducing land consumption is to be pursued. Such an approach must draw on information about how detrimental specific land use transitions are with regard to, for instance, the functionality of soils, water balance or habitat quality at specific locations. This paper introduces a conceptual framework for the impact assessment of land use transition in urban areas which highlights how such information can be acquired. This framework includes the differentiation of two levels of impact assessment: the level of the single land unit and the context level which takes into account regional and aggregated impacts of land use transition bound to the spatial context. The conceptual framework provides a basis to disaggregate (supra-)national policy targets regarding land use, to scale them down to the regional level, and thus to clarify the spatially explicit implications of land use policies.     

Towards the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive?: Lessons learned from water quality simulations in an agricultural watershed

The main objective of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) is the achievement of a good ecological and chemical status of the water environment (water bodies). This status corresponds to the limit value of Germany's Working Group of the Federal States on Water Problems Issues (LAWA) for water quality class II (3 mg/l total nitrogen). The rivers in the intensively cropped Upper Ems River basin (northwestern Germany) show total nitrogen concentrations in excess of 5–10 mg/l. Hence, the objective of our study was to find a land use and land management scenario that would reduce the total nitrogen concentration to meet the WFD requirements for good ecological and chemical status. We developed consecutive land use and management scenarios on the basis of policy instruments such as the support of agro-environmental measures by Common Agricultural Policy and regional landscape development programs. The model simulations were done by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results of SWAT scenario calculations showed that drastic measures, which are unrealistic from a socio-economic point of view, would be needed to achieve the water quality target in the basin (reduction of arable land from 77.2% to 46% [13% organic farming], increase of pasture from 4% to 15%, afforestation from 10% to 21%, increase of protected wetlands from 0% to 9%, etc.). The example shows additionally that the achievement of the WFD targets is only possible with a consideration of regional landscape and land use distinctions. A related problem yet to be addressed is the general lack of measured water quality data with which to calibrate and validate water quality models such as SWAT. This adds considerable uncertainty to already complicated and uncertainty situations. Thus, improved strategies for water quality monitoring, and data accessibility must be established.     

Using participatory mapping and a participatory geographic information system in pastoral land use investigation: Impacts of rangeland policy in Botswana

Since the 1980s, the spatial extent of communal grazing lands in Botswana has been diminishing due to rangeland privatisation and fencing associated with animal health policies. Spatial comparisons of pastoral land use transformations are particularly important where accessibility to grazing and water resources remains at the core of sustainable pastoralism policies. Achieving success in pastoral development research requires a sound understanding of traditional pastoralists’ information systems, including the nature of local spatial knowledge. This study explores local spatial knowledge through participatory mapping and a Participatory Geographic Information System to understand and analyse pastoralists’ grazing patterns, spatial mobility and the impacts of subdivisions and privatisation policies in Botswana’s Ngamiland rangelands. The study uses focus group discussions, historical analysis through key informant interviews, and participatory mapping exercises along with community guided transect walks. The resulting maps provide insights into the traditional tenure patterns of land use and the impacts of rangeland policy on traditional livestock spatial mobility and access to grazing lands. Privatisation and rangeland enclosures have resulted in the restricted movement of livestock and overstocking of floodplains and riparian rangelands, with some natural water pans becoming inaccessible to local communities. We conclude that the integration of local spatial knowledge can be used to foster better articulation and understanding of pastoralists’ tenures, which are often lacking in communal land administration systems. Such integrated analysis can contribute to sustainable pastoral land management policy toolkits in semi-arid rangeland environments and enable better land tenure and management decision making for sustainable land management.     

Cap towards 2020 and the cost of political choices: The case of Emilia-romagna region

The paper assesses the different schemes of regionalisation and greening implementation according to both the preliminary proposals presented to the Trilogue and the CAP Reform adopted on 16 December 2013. The objective is to compare the different potential impacts on production (land use) and on the economic revenue of farm holders in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). The assessment is performed by a regional positive mathematical programming (PMP) model and is carried out for single farms appearing in the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data. Sampling weights are used to make the simulation results consistent with the production structure of the region. The findings confirm a big weakening in what would have been the impact of the Commission’s proposal. In terms of lower gross margin incurred by farmers for fulfilling the greening requirements in the final CAP scenario, the model estimates a reduction corresponding to 20 €/ha. The greatest economic effects of the new CAP appear to be mainly due to the redistribution of direct payments.     

An indicator to reflect the mitigating effect of Common Agricultural Policy on soil erosion

This study presents the updated version of the recently published LANDUM model [Land Use Policy 48, 38–50 (2015)]. LANDUM is integrated into the 100 m resolution RUSLE-based pan-European soil erosion risk modelling platform of the European Commission. It estimates the effects of local land use and management practices on the magnitude of soil erosion across each NUTS2 region of the European Union. This is done based on a spatially explicit estimation of the so-called cover-management factor of (R)USLE family models which is also known as C-factor. In this updated version, the data on soil conservation measures (i.e., reduced tillage, cover crops and plant residues) reported in the latest EU Farm Structure Survey (2016) were integrated and elaborated in LANDUM in order to estimate the changes of the C-factor in Europe between 2010 and 2016. For 2016, a C-factor of 0.2316 for the arable land of the 28 Member States of the European Union was estimated. This implies an overall decrease of C-factor of ca. -0.84 % compared to the 2010 survey. The change in C-factor from 2010 to 2016 could be an indication for the effectiveness of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) soil conservation measures in reducing soil erosion in Europe, especially key CAP policies such as Good Agricultural and Environmental Conditions and Greening.     

Dynamic land use and land cover changes and their effect on forest resources in a coastal village of Matemwe,Zanzibar, Tanzania

Recent land cover change estimates show overall decline of tropical forests at the regional and global scales caused by multiple social, cultural and economic factors. There is an overall concern on the prevailing land use practices, such as shifting cultivation and extraction of forest materials as agents of forests losses, but also new, emerging land uses are threatening tropical forests. Understanding of the long-term development and driving forces of forest changes are needed, especially at local levels where many decisions on forest policies and land uses are made. This paper addresses the importance of such information for improved estimates of forest dynamics by studying local level land cover and land use changes during the last 50–70 years in the Eastern African tropical island of Zanzibar, Tanzania. The paper discusses the role of traditional and new land uses mainly subsistence farming, tourism and government interference through tree planting, in the long-term development of the forests at the village level. The material for the study is gathered from the interpretation of archival maps and aerial photographs combined with contemporary digital aerial photographs. The analyses are based on the mapping, spatial sampling and spatio-temporal change trajectory analysis (LCTA) of forest land cover, forest land uses and settlement patterns with GIS and statistics. Six distinct forest land cover change trajectories were identified and these illustrate dynamic and heterogeneous nature of the forests. Closed forest cover has dominated throughout due to cyclical land use patterns, but over 70% of the land area has been continuously transforming between closed, semi-open and open land cover conditions. Land use turnover rates indicate that hardly any forest areas are left untouched from the forces, which remove and re-establish forest vegetation in the long run. Land cover and land use change trajectories are spatially fragmented in the studied landscape. Majority of forest loss-gain dynamics is caused by shifting cultivation, while forest losses are most dramatic along the coast, where traditional and new land uses meet and land uses pressures are highest. The study suggests that landscape change trajectory analyses, where contemporary and historical information on land uses and land cover changes are spatially linked, can provide valuable aspects into local level forest land use planning and management strategies. For the case study, the findings suggest the following key forest management strategies for consideration: (1) establishment of a protected forest/scrubland in participation with the local stakeholders, especially the farmers, (2) promotion of areas for permanent agricultural practices, while simultaneously introducing management controls in the traditional slash-and-burn farming areas, and (3) promoting new livelihood opportunities for the farmers, who have traditionally been dependent on forest resources, meanwhile introducing alternatives for fuel wood for cooking.     

Replacement of Agricultural Price Supports by Area Payments in the European Union and the Effects on Pesticide Use

This article determines the contribution of recent European Union agricultural policy reforms on the use of pesticides. Our theoretical model extends the multioutput generalization of the Lichtenberg–Zilberman damage control technology model developed by Chambers and Lichtenberg . Our empirical analysis uses farm-level data for a sample of French farms. Results suggest that price effects on the use of pesticides are always more elastic than area payment effects. This indicates that policy reforms consisting of a reduction in price supports in favor of area payments, may reduce application of crop protection inputs. Such policy changes, which represent a certain degree of decoupling, took place under the 1992 Common Agricultural Policy reforms.     

Ethanol expansion and indirect land use change in Brazil

In this paper we analyze the indirect land use change (ILUC) effects of ethanol production expansion in Brazil through the use of an inter-regional, bottom-up, dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated with the 2005 Brazilian I-O table. A new methodology to deal with ILUC effects is developed, using a transition matrix of land uses calibrated with Agricultural Censuses data. Agriculture and land use are modeled separately in each of 15 Brazilian regions with different agricultural mix. This regional detail captures a good deal of the differences in soil, climate and history that cause particular land to be used for particular purposes.Brazilian land area data distinguish three broad types of agricultural land use, Crop, Pasture, and Plantation Forestry. Between one year and the next the model allows land to move between those categories, or for unused land to convert to one of these three, driven initially by the transition matrix, changing land supply for agriculture between years. The transition matrix shows Markov probabilities that a particular hectare of land used in one year for some use would be in another use next period. These probabilities are modified endogenously in the model according to the average unit rentals of each land type in each region.We ask whether biofuel expansion is consistent with new laws, limiting forest clearing in Brazil. A simulation with ethanol expansion scenario is performed for year 2020, in which land supply is allowed to increase only in states located on the agricultural frontier. Results suggest that each new hectare of sugar cane requires only 0.14 ha of new land, with another 0.47 ha converted from pasture use. Hence policies limiting deforestation are unlikely to prevent greater ethanol production. Finally, regional differences in sugarcane productivity are found to be important elements in ILUC effects of sugar cane expansion.     

Modelling and Mapping Agricultural Output Values Using Farm Specific Details and Environmental Databases

Ongoing concerns regarding the economic losses associated with the CAP and the negative environmental impacts of present land use have led to calls for land use change and consequent efforts to identify areas which are, from both a financial and social perspective, most appropriate for such conversion. This paper develops and applies an output value modelling methodology in which site-specific biophysical factors are combined with farm level data in order to predict input usage and, subsequently, farm profit. The spatial analytic capabilities of a geographical information system (GIS) are used to combine the variety of data employed to permit analysis of a large study area (the entirety of Wales) and yield models of both the market and shadow value of output from the two principal agricultural sectors of the area: dairying and sheep farming. The GIS is then used to produce readily interpretable maps of these values across the study area. The resulting maps are highly compatible both with value maps of alternative land uses given in the recent literature and with approaches to policy formulation currently under development by a range of UK agencies. Such maps may be used to assist estimation of the extent and location of farming response to land use policy change.     

Causal chains,policy trade offs and sustainability: Analysing land (mis)use in seven countries in the South

The need to enhance sustainable development of land use is more urgent than ever; specifically in developing countries where poverty and land degradation are often interlinked. To promote a common understanding of land use problems by experts, stakeholders and decision makers, it is essential to understand the system characteristics, including the complex feedbacks between drivers and impacts. To enhance sustainable development, appropriate policies need to be identified. In this paper, we analysed and compared seven case studies in Kenya, Mali, Tunisia, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil, representing different biophysical and socio-economic conditions and challenges. We analysed Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) story lines of the land use problems, policy priorities and value trade-offs as identified by stakeholders and experts in National Policy Forums. Important drivers of land use change impacting main land use problems among the case studies were economic growth, technological development, immigration and agricultural intensification, in addition to existing policies. Of the latter the most important were related to domestic support through various forms of subsidies or access to credit, land tenure polices and liberalization policies. In the policy prioritization, the value trade-offs made by the National Policy Forums emphasize the environment rather than increased economic production. It is recognized that the environment needs to be improved to maintain and improve economic production in the long term, both in agriculture and in other sectors.     

Land use and biodiversity relationships

The relationships between land use and biodiversity are fundamental to understanding the links between people and their environment. Biodiversity can be measured in many ways. The concept covers not only the overall richness of species present in a particular area but also the diversity of genotypes, functional groups, communities, habitats and ecosystems there. As a result, the relationships between biodiversity in its broadest sense and land use can be complex and highly context dependent. Moreover, the relationships between them are often two-way, so that simple relationships between cause and effect can be difficult to identify. In some places, specific land uses or land management practices may be important in sustaining particular patterns of biodiversity. Elsewhere, the uses to which land can be put are highly dependent on the biodiversity resources present.The review will consider how changes in the quantity, quality and spatial configuration of different aspects of land use can impact on different components of biodiversity, and what direct and indirect factors might drive these changes. The need to distinguish between land cover and land use will be discussed in relation to the economic and social drivers of land use change. The review will also consider whether framing biodiversity objectives involves society in placing constraints upon the types of land use and management practice that are possible, and will consider such arguments in relation to assessments of the costs of biodiversity loss. It would seem that while considerable progress has been made in mapping out plausible futures for land use and biodiversity at global and regional scales, closer integration of modelling, scenario and field-based monitoring is needed to strengthen the evidence base available to decision makers. Challenges that face us include how we take account of the qualitative changes in land cover, and the impacts of such modifications on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Broader perspectives on the value of biodiversity and ecosystem services are also needed as the basis for developing adaptive and flexible approaches to policy and management.     

Factors affecting municipal land use cooperation

This paper evaluates the factors affecting voluntary municipal land use cooperation in Michigan where neither substantial mandates nor incentives for such cooperation exist. Cooperation is conceptualized as the formality of land use cooperation. This paper uses quantitative data obtained through surveys of chief elected officials and finds that the extent of internal municipal support for cooperation, whether elected officials anticipate benefits from cooperation, and the effectiveness of regional institutions at providing supportive services for cooperation have positive impacts on the formality of land use cooperation. The amount of cooperation on services and a regional cooperative culture impact the formality of land use cooperation negatively.     

How feasible is regional integration for reconciling land use conflicts across the urban–rural interface? Evidence from Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei metropolitan region in China

Competition among different uses for land is becoming acute under the process of urbanization, and conflicts related to this competition are becoming more frequent and more complex. This article presents a methodology for confronting this issue. By applying an integrated framework, we explore the implicit role of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Regional Integration (BRI) policy in land use conflicts by focusing on the urban-rural interface, and try to address the research question: “How feasible is BRI for reconciling land use conflicts across the urban-rural interface?” An original structure of the analysis is developed based on the identification of three types of conflicts, namely, conflicts over land use structure, conflicts over land conversion and conflicts over landscape pattern. According to the interactions and relationships among these conflicts, we define broad categories of land use conflict areas. Indeed, these conflicts are all related to the unplanned use of agricultural land reserves, which competes with other more immediate uses, and the over-exploitation of land resources caused by unsustainable urban practices. This policy is clearly a critical objective for optimizing the land use structure. It, however, fails to reconcile the conflicts over land conversion and landscape pattern, especially for considerable agricultural land conversion to non-agricultural uses, and low-density development pattern with mixed residential and industrial land uses. Hence, alternative strategies involving public participation, spatial equity, rural revitalization, land-use system reform, and new type of urbanization, can be identified as viable solutions for land use conflict management, which may be complementary to regional integration. The findings of our paper may also contribute to the policy debate on BRI concerning land use planning and regional sustainability.     

Property rights,land use and the rural environment: A case for reform

English Law confers extensive land use rights as an integral attribute of property entitlements and land ownership. Property rights have, however, been subject to incremental reform by a number of different legal and policy instruments since 1945. Many have been introduced since the UK's accession to the European Community in 1972 and are derived from European Union environmental law, and from the law of the Common Agricultural Policy. Others derive from planning law and policy. There has, as a consequence, been an extensive modification to the allocation of land-based utility recognised in property rights, although the common law theory of property entitlements has remained unaffected. This paper considers the impact of these developments on property rights theory, and anticipates the further modifications to property concepts that will be required by a land use policy increasingly focussed on the promotion of environmental stewardship in the countryside. It makes the case for the introduction of a general duty of environmental stewardship as an attribute of property ownership in the law of England and Wales. It considers the contribution that this would make to the delivery of a stable and effective environmental policy for rural land use, and towards a recognition of the wider community interest in, and reliance upon, the sustainable management of land.     

The use of ex-ante modelling tools in European Impact Assessment: What role does land use play?

Impact Assessment was introduced by the European Commission in 2002 in order to make policy development more transparent and improve the ‘quality’ of European policies. Cross-sectoral consultation, broad participation and the quantitative assessment of the impacts of policies are significant elements of this process. This article specifically addresses the role of tools modelling the impact of policies on land use in Impact Assessment. The choice of a specific modelling tool is conceptualised as an action situation interlinked with other action arenas. The article aims to uncover the institutions structuring the action situation. The outcome of the empirical work suggests that two types of Impact Assessments can be distinguished. Impact Assessments either substantively contribute to the specific policy that the Commission proposes or they legitimise policy choices ex post that have already been adopted. The legislative procedure that applies to a specific policy sector, the policy making culture in the DG and the stakes that are at issue seem to influence whether Impact Assessments contribute to policy development, or legitimise it. Furthermore, the article describes the situation in which desk officers choose a modelling tool throughout Impact Assessment. To advance their careers desk officers aim to produce policy proposals which respond to the issues raised by the actors involved in Impact Assessment and specifically in policy development and, later on, adoption. Therefore, desk officers’ preferences are shaped by the community that is involved in policy development and Impact Assessment. The article describes what role modelling tools play in European Impact Assessment procedures and it names the heuristic of criteria which desk officers use to choose a modelling tool. Besides several technical and data problems of modelling land use impact, it seems to be unlikely that land use will become a significant dimension of Impact Assessment and modelling as it is confronted with an unfavourable institutional environment at the European level.