Consumption effects of genetic modification: what if consumers are right?⋆

This paper develops a model of differentiated consumers to examine the consumption effects of genetic modification (GM) under alternative labelling regimes and segregation enforcement scenarios. Analytical results show that if consumers perceive GM products as being different than their traditional counterparts, GM affects consumer welfare and, thus, consumption decisions. When the existence of market imperfections in one or more stages of the supply chain prevents the transmission of cost savings associated with the new technology to consumers, GM results in welfare losses for consumers. The analysis shows that the relative welfare ranking of the ‘no labelling’ and ‘mandatory labelling’ regimes depends on: (i) the level of consumer aversion to GM products; (ii) the size of marketing and segregation costs under mandatory labelling; (iii) the share of the GM product in total production; and (iv) the extent to which GM products are incorrectly labelled as non‐GM products.     

Market and Welfare Effects of Second-Generation, Consumer-Oriented GM Products

We examine the economic effects of the introduction of consumer-oriented genetically modified (GM) products into the food system by developing a model of heterogeneous consumers and producers that allows for vertical and horizontal differentiation between the products available to consumers. The model facilitates the estimation of consumer and producer surpluses in the product/utility and product/net returns spaces. Results show that the introduction of consumer-oriented GM products can change the relationship between GM and conventional and organic products from one of vertical to one of horizontal product differentiation and can enhance both economic welfare and the market acceptance and growth of agricultural biotechnology.     

On the Segregation of Genetically Modified,Conventional and Organic Products in European Agriculture: A Multi‐market Equilibrium Analysis

Evaluating the possible benefits of the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops must address the issue of consumer resistance as well as the complex regulation that has ensued. In the European Union (EU), this regulation envisions the co‐existence of GM food with conventional and quality‐enhanced products, mandates the labelling and traceability of GM products and allows only a stringent adventitious presence of GM content in other products. All these elements are brought together within a partial equilibrium model of the EU agricultural food sector. The model comprises conventional, GM and organic food. Demand is modelled in a novel fashion, whereby organic and conventional products are treated as horizontally differentiated but GM products are vertically differentiated (weakly inferior) relative to conventional ones. Supply accounts explicitly for the land constraint at the sector level and for the need for additional resources to produce organic food. Model calibration and simulation allow insights into the qualitative and quantitative effects of the large‐scale introduction of GM products in the EU market. We find that the introduction of GM food reduces overall EU welfare, mostly because of the associated need for costly segregation of non‐GM products, but the producers of quality‐enhanced products actually benefit.     

Inserting GM Products into the Food Chain: The Market and Welfare Effects of Different Labeling and Regulatory Regimes

The purpose of this article is to examine the system-wide effects of the introduction of genetically modified (GM) products with and without labeling and to compare these two regimes to a third regime where GM products are not present either because they have not yet been developed or because they have been banned. For each regime, the decisions and welfare of consumers, producers, and life science companies are examined. The article explicitly incorporates the consumer response to the introduction of GM technology and considers different market structures of the life science sector.     

EU and US Regulations for Handling and Transporting Genetically Modified Grains: Are Both Positions Correct?

Differences in the way GM grains are treated in the US and the EU motivate the question of whether there is a single correct policy towards identification of such products. This issue is addressed here, based on a mathematical model that assumes that the cost of maintaining identity on non-GM markets is borne by the non-GM industry. The economic welfare impacts of introducing GM technology depend on the levels of consumer concern and production cost savings, and the cost of maintaining non-GM grain identity. The introduction of a new cost-reducing GM technology often increases total welfare as one might expect. However, society loses when GM production cost-savings are small and consumers are highly concerned about GM grain because introducing GM technology creates a need to preserve the identity of non-GM grain. Taken together, the results suggest that the US may have maximized welfare by not requiring labeling of GM corn and soybeans, and that the recently approved EU legislation enforcing labeling of GM crops also makes sense in the EU. The reason for this is that consumer concern in the EU appears to be greater than in the US, and fewer EU producers stand to benefit from cost savings in GM corn and soybean production.     

A latent class approach to investigating demand for genetically modified banana in Uganda

This study explores consumer acceptance and valuation of a genetically modified (GM) staple food crop in a developing country prior to its commercialization. We focus on the hypothetical introduction of a disease‐resistant GM banana variety in Uganda, where bananas are among the most important staple crops. A choice experiment is used to investigate consumer preferences for various attributes related to the banana (such as bunch size, technology, producer benefit, and price) and examine their opinions on GM foodstuff. Choice data come from 421 banana‐consuming households randomly selected from three regions of Uganda. A latent class model is used to investigate the heterogeneity in consumers’ preferences for selected attributes related to the banana and to profile consumers who are more or less likely to accept GM bananas. Our results reveal that there is significant heterogeneity in consumer preferences across our sample. GM bananas are valued the most by poorer households located in the rural areas of the Eastern region. These food‐insecure households would experience the highest benefits (i.e., welfare gains) from the commercial release of GM bananas. In contrast, urban consumers are less accepting of GM bananas, and they would experience significant welfare losses if GM banana is released. According to our welfare estimates, both the total welfare benefits acquired by the gainers and the total welfare losses borne by the losers of this technology are significant and large. These results suggest the need for further investigation of the overall welfare effects of the introduction of GM bananas on the Ugandan society as a whole.     

The Effect of Cooperatives on Quality‐Enhancing Innovation

This paper develops game‐theoretic models of heterogeneous consumers to analyse the effect of cooperatives on quality‐enhancing product innovation activity, the pricing of food products and the welfare of the groups involved, in the context of a mixed duopoly where an open‐membership consumer co‐op competes with an investor‐owned firm in markets for horizontally differentiated products. Analytical results show that the involvement of the member welfare‐maximising co‐op in innovation activity can change the nature of product differentiation and the structure of the market, and be quality and welfare enhancing by increasing innovation activity and reducing the prices of food products. The effects of co‐operative involvement are shown to depend on the degree of consumer heterogeneity and the size of innovation costs.     

Welfare impacts of new demand-enhancing agricultural products: The case of Honeycrisp apples

Agricultural research and development programs on new demand-enhancing products have become increasingly important over the past decade. Large numbers of new agricultural products have been developed and commercialized in the United States to meet consumers’ increasingly diverse expectations for food quality. However, little is known about their economic benefits. Focusing on the apple market, we investigate the welfare impacts of the introduction of Honeycrisp apples in a market equilibrium framework. We use market data on apple sales from 61 cities across the United States between 2009 and 2015. We find the introduction of Honeycrisp increased consumer welfare, which is mainly explained by the increased number of total apple varieties. We also find that the introduction of Honeycrisp apples has increased overall market size and total apple sales. To extrapolate our results to the entire U.S. apple market, we perform a back-of-the-envelope analysis and find that the introduction of Honeycrisp apples has increased total consumer welfare by about 859 million dollars during the study period. This corresponds to approximately 19% of the annual average domestic expenditures on public food and agricultural R&D.     

A Conjoint/Logit Analysis of Consumers’ Responses to Genetically Modified Tofu in Taiwan

We use data collected from a consumer survey of face‐to‐face interviews to determine consumer demand for genetically modified (GM) tofu attributes in Taiwan. Conjoint analysis using logit models reveals that, on average, brand is the most important attribute in terms of influence on consumers’ preferences, followed by price, with GM content having the least influence. However, the analysis also reveals three distinct market segments for tofu. Apart from the largest segment (which reflects the average lack of concern about GM food), the remaining two segments are split according to their preference or antipathy towards GM tofu. This result suggests that GM labelling is helpful to Taiwanese tofu consumers.     

Consumers’ Preferences for Bread: Transgenic,Cisgenic, Organic or Pesticide‐free?

Consumers are apprehensive about transgenic technologies, so cisgenics, which limit gene transfers to sexually compatible organisms, have been suggested to address consumer concerns. We study consumer preferences for rye bread alternatives based on transgenic or cisgenic rye, grown conventionally or without the use of pesticides, relative to traditionally bred rye, grown with conventional or organic farming methods. Stated preference (SP) data from a choice experiment are combined with revealed preference (RP) data from market purchases from the same respondents. Results show that respondents prefer pesticide‐free production methods, and that while cisgenics is preferred over transgenics, the majority of respondents favour traditional breeding methods. The distribution in preferences suggests that some respondents prefer bread from cisgenic crops produced without pesticides over traditional crops produced using pesticides. Preferences for organic bread are stronger than for pesticide‐free products. From a policy perspective results suggest that excluding cisgenics from mandatory labeling in the EU, or including it in the voluntary non‐GM labelling in the US, would cause welfare losses for consumers.     

Mandatory versus voluntary labelling of genetically modified food: evidence from an economic experiment

Opponents of the voluntary labelling scheme for genetically modified (GM) food products often argue that consumers have the “right to know” and therefore advocate mandatory labelling. In this article, we argue against this line of reasoning. Using experimental auctions we show that the quality of the signal generated by a mandatory labelling scheme is affected by the number of labels in the market. If there are two labels, one for GM products and one for non‐GM products, mandatory and voluntary labelling schemes generate a similar degree of uncertainty about the quality of products that do not carry a label.     

Markets and welfare effects of food fraud

This study develops a theoretical framework of heterogeneous consumers and producers and imperfectly competitive food companies to analyse the system‐wide market and welfare effects of food fraud in the form of food adulteration and mislabelling. The results show that, while the price impacts of food fraud are product‐specific with the equilibrium prices of high‐quality and low‐quality products moving in different directions, the equilibrium quantities depend on the relative magnitude of the demand and supply effects of food fraud. Regarding the welfare effects of food fraud, they are shown to be highly asymmetric across different consumers and producers. In addition to enabling the disaggregation of the welfare effects of food fraud, the explicit consideration of agent heterogeneity, asymmetries in the probability of fraud detection and the endogeneity of the producer quality choices also enables the derivation of a key result of this study; contrary to what is traditionally believed, both low‐quality and high‐quality producers can have economic incentives to commit fraud. The group that is more likely to cheat is determined by the social attitudes towards fraudulent behaviour, the enforcement policy parameters and the relative magnitude of the demand and supply effects of food fraud. A comparison of the market effects of mislabelling and food adulteration reveals that, while the equilibrium quantity of the high‐quality product is higher in the presence of mislabelling, producers are more likely to mislabel than adulterate their products.     

How important are tariffs and nontariff barriers in international markets for fresh fruit?

International markets for agricultural products are often subject to a range of trade barriers, and horticultural products are no exception. This article examines the economic implications of tariffs and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) regulations that are applied to global markets for fresh apples and fresh oranges. We calculate regional‐level tariff rates and ad valorem equivalents for SPS barriers following the price‐wedge approach. A simulation model is developed and used to assess the price, quantity, and welfare implications of reducing tariffs, removing SPS barriers, and removing SPS barriers that have been identified as a Specific Trade Concern (STC) by the World Trade Organization. Results suggest that a 36% reduction in global tariffs would lead to greater welfare gains than would the elimination of SPS measures in apple markets. However, in orange markets, we find that SPS measures have much larger economic implications for producers and consumers. Here, a 36% reduction in tariffs would lead to smaller overall welfare effects compared to removal of all SPS measures, and only slightly larger effects than those from removal of STCs alone.     

Labelling Genetically Modified Food: Heterogeneous Consumer Preferences and the Value of Information

One facet of public debate associated with genetically modified (GM) food focuses on labelling policy for products derived from GM processes. This paper reports on the analysis of effects on consumers' choices of pre-packaged sliced bread under different GM food labelling policies. Substantial heterogeneity is found to exist among consumers' tastes for various bread attributes, including the presence/absence of GM ingredients in bread products. A simulation-based bias-adjusted measure is applied to estimate the value of information, as opposed to the value of the presence or absence of GM ingredients, revealed to consumers by different labelling procedures for the GM attribute. The information that is provided in a mandatory labelling context is considerably more valued by consumers than the information provided in a voluntary labelling context. In a final section, estimated consumer benefits from labelling policies are expressed in terms of average market prices for bread products, providing a measure of benefits against which potential cost increases that may be associated with labelling policies may be compared in the context of any future benefit–cost analysis of GM labelling.     

Comparative Advantage in Demand: Experimental Evidence of Preferences for Genetically Modified Food in the United States and European Union

The United States (US) exports more than US$6 billion in agricultural commodities to the European Union(EU) each year, but one issue carries the potential to diminish this trade: use of biotechnology in food production. The EU has adopted more stringent policies towards biotechnology than the US. Understanding differences in European and American policies towards genetically modified (GM) foods requires a greater understanding of consumers’ attitudes and preferences. This paper reports results from the first large‐scale, cross‐Atlantic study to analyse consumer demand for genetically modified food in a non‐hypothetical market environment. We strongly reject the frequent if convenient assumption in trade theory that consumer preferences are identical across countries: the median level of compensation demanded by English and French consumers to consume a GM food is found to be more than twice that in any of the US locations. Results have important implications for trade theory, which typically focuses on differences in specialization, comparative advantage and factor endowments across countries, and for on‐going trade disputes at the World Trade Organization.     

Genetically Modified Crops: Their Market and Welfare Impacts

A framework is developed for examining price and welfare effects of the introduction of genetically modified (GM) products. In the short run, non-GM grain generally becomes another identity-preserved product. However, more profound market effects are observed under some reasonable parameterizations. When calibrated to reflect the U.S. corn market, introducing GM technology increases aggregate welfare over a wide range of scenarios, unless the corresponding production cost savings are small and consumers are seriously concerned about GM products. The possibility that GM technology may reduce aggregate welfare is interesting because the model assumes rational agents and does not include regulatory constraints.     

Consumers’ Perceptions and Behaviors Regarding Organic Fruits and Vegetables: Marketing Trends for Organic Food in the Twenty-First Century

ABSTRACT

Organic food market is very challenging in Europe and developing rapidly with different rates between the western and eastern parts. The objective of this report is to gain knowledge about attitudes toward organic fruits and vegetables among Slovenian consumers. Results indicated that organic buyers tend to be younger and higher educated than those who do not buy them. In addition, consumers’ trust in the authenticity of the goods and price are also issues. However, the main barrier to increase the market share of organic products is consumer information. According to the research results an important task for the producers will be to increase consumers’ knowledge of what an organic product is and how to differentiate it in the marketplace. Along with knowledgeable and educated consumers, consumption could be raised on another level. The results of the research could be used for planning further marketing activities.     

Consumer Acceptance of Second‐Generation GM Foods: The Case of Biofortified Cassava in the North‐east of Brazil

Biofortified staple foods are currently being developed to reduce problems of micronutrient malnutrition among the poor. This partly involves use of genetic modification. Yet, relatively little is known about consumer acceptance of such second‐generation genetically modified (GM) foods in developing countries. Here, we analyse consumer attitudes towards provitamin A GM cassava in the north‐east of Brazil. Based on stated preference data, mean willingness to pay is estimated at 60–70% above market prices for traditional cassava. This is higher than the results from similar studies in developed countries, which is plausible given that micronutrient malnutrition is more severe in developing countries. GM foods with enhanced nutritive attributes seem to be well received by poor consumers. However, the results also suggest that acceptance would be still higher if provitamin A were introduced to cassava through conventional breeding. Some policy implications are discussed.     

Food fraud: economic insights into the dark side of incentives

In this review, we contextualise the articles in this special issue, relating them to existing food fraud research, and identify food fraud research trends, challenges and priorities for the near term. We accomplish these aims through a comprehensive review of research by food scientists, economists, other social scientists, legal experts, government research groups and international trade organisations. Existing food fraud research is heavily weighted towards food science, packaging and labelling, and legal areas of knowledge discovery. Moving forward, research is needed pertaining to general economic welfare outcomes from food fraud incidences, economic incentives to deter frauds, economic spillovers from fraud incidences to other food products and markets (domestic and international) and further delineation of the effect of different types of food fraud on consumer and producer welfare. The articles in this special issue make significant contributions to understanding of the role of food fraud in consumer decisions, measuring consumer welfare losses from fraud, food fraud spillover effects to other markets and new frameworks for fraud analysis.     

The Elusive Price Premium for Ecolabelled Products: Evidence from Seafood in the UK Market

Ecolabelling is an increasingly important tool used in the promotion of sustainable forestry and fishery products around the world. Whether the consumer is actually paying a price premium for ecolabelled products is of fundamental importance as it indicates a return on the investment of sustainable practices, providing an incentive for producers to undertake such practices. This article seeks to address the question of whether or not an actual premium is being paid by consumers for ecolabelled seafood by conducting a hedonic analysis of Marine Stewardship Council (MSC)‐certified frozen processed Alaska pollock products in the London metropolitan area in the UK market using scanner data. Regression results show a statistically significant premium of 14.2%. This implies the presence of market differentiation for sustainable seafood and the potential of the MSC’s fisheries certification programme to generate market incentives for sustainable fisheries practices.