Economies in Transition: How Important Is Trade Openness for Growth?*

We investigate the effect of trade openness on economic growth in transition countries using a transparent statistical methodology that leads to data‐driven case studies. In particular, we employ synthetic control methods in a panel of transition economies and compare GDP growth in treated (that is, open) countries with growth in a convex combination of similar but untreated (that is, closed) countries. We find that trade liberalization tends to have a positive effect on the pattern of real GDP per capita. One of our most robust results shows that making the transition without opening up to trade considerably hampers growth.     

Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis

This paper explores whether natural resource abundance is a curse or a blessing. To do so, we firstly develop a theory consistent econometric model, in which we show that there is a long run relationship between real income, the investment rate, and the real value of oil production. Secondly, we investigate the long-run (level) impacts of natural resource abundance on domestic output as well as the short-run (growth) effects. Thirdly, we explicitly recognize that there is a substantial cross-sectional dependence and cross-country heterogeneity in our sample, which covers 53 oil exporting and importing countries with very different historical and institutional backgrounds, and adopt the non-stationary panel methodologies developed by Pesaran (2006) and Pedroni (2000) for estimation. Our results, using the real value of oil production, rent or reserves as a proxy for resource endowment, reveal that oil abundance has a positive effect on both income levels and economic growth. While we accept that oil rich countries could benefit more from their natural wealth by adopting growth and welfare enhancing policies and institutions, we challenge the common view that oil abundance affects economic growth negatively.     

Environmental taxes,reforms and economic growth: an empirical analysis of panel data

This paper explores the relationship between environmentally related taxes and the economic growth rate. The analysis also investigates whether this relationship differs between countries that have implemented environmental tax reforms (ETRs) and those that have not. Using panel data from 31 OECD countries over the period 1994–2013, the paper finds that when we allow environmentally related tax revenues to interact with an initial level of real GDP per capita, the overall revenues of these taxes are negatively associated with the economic growth rate in the short and long term. Furthermore, we show that the higher the initial level of GDP per capita, the more environmentally related tax revenues can promote the economic growth rate. The analysis also reveals that the relationship between environmentally related tax revenues and economic growth varies between countries that have a mechanism to redistribute environmentally related tax revenues and those that do not.     

International propagation of shocks: A dynamic factor model using survey forecasts

This paper studies the pathways for the propagation of shocks across the G7 and major Asia-Pacific countries using multi-horizon forecasts of real GDP growth from 1995 to 2017. We show that if the forecasts are efficient in the long run, the results obtained using these forecasts are comparable to those obtained from the actual outturns. We measure global business cycle connectedness and study the impacts of both country-specific shocks and common international shocks using a panel factor structural VAR model. Our results suggest that there is a strong convergence of business cycles within the group of industrialized countries, as well as within the group of developing economies during non-recessionary periods. In particular, we find an increased decoupling between the industrialized and developing economies after the 2008 recession. However, the direction of shock spillovers during recessions and other crisis periods varies, depending on the nature and origin of the episode.     

PURCHASING POWER PARITY FOR DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM NON‐STATIONARY PANEL DATA MODELS?

Abstract.  The aim of this paper is to apply recently developed panel cointegration techniques proposed by Pedroni ( Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61 (1999): Supplement, 653–670; Econometric Theory 20 (2004): 597–625) and generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (Working Paper 591, European Central Bank, February 2006) to examine the robustness of the PPP concept for a sample of 80 developed and developing countries. We find that strong PPP is verified for OECD countries and weak PPP for Middle East and North African countries. However, in African, Asian, Latin American and Central and Eastern European countries, PPP does not seem relevant to characterize the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate. Further investigations indicate that the nature of the exchange rate regime does not condition the validity of PPP, which is more easily accepted in countries with high rather than low inflation.     

Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models

We use a dynamic heterogeneous panel model to estimate real equilibrium exchange rates for advanced transition countries. Our method is based on out-of-sample estimations from middle-income and high-income countries, and we use a Pooled Mean Group estimator. We find that exchange rates in the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia have converged in recent years with real equilibrium exchange rates expressed in the US dollars. Yet, in 2002, they were overvalued in Hungary but undervalued in Slovenia. We also find that the currencies of the transition countries studied, except Slovenia, were overvalued in 2002 if real effective exchange rates were used. In particular, the Hungarian currency was found to have the largest extent of misalignment.     

Impact of financial development on SAARC’S human development

The objective of the study is to investigate the link between economic growth and financial development (i.e., broad money supply, credit to private sector (CPS) and bank deposit liabilities) in human development for a panel of selected South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries; namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka during 1988–2008; over the period of 1988–2008. The panel cointegration technique is employed for analysis of short and long-run relationship between the variables. The results of panel cointegration found that there is a long-run relationship between financial development indicators and economic growth in human development in SAARC region. The estimated results indicate that in the short run, bank deposit liabilities exerts the maximum impact (i.e., 0.425 %) on human development in SAARC region, subsequently, broad money supply (i.e., 0.301 %) and CPS (i.e., 0.128 %) respectively, while there is a negative relationship between real GDP growth and human capital (i.e., \(-\) 0.189 %). In the long-run, DOLS estimator constitutes broad money supply which increases by 0.912 %, followed by credit to private sector (i.e., 0.121 %) on human development. While, in case of FMOLS estimator, these results are disappear, as broad money supply does not have any significant impact on human development in SAARC region. The coefficient of real GDP per capita in both estimators, have a negative impact on human development, however, the intensity of both estimators are different in nature, as real GDP per capita decrease human development in FMOLS (i.e., \(-\) 0.828 %) and in DOLS estimators (i.e., 0.458 %). The results indicate that due to a low quality of human capital in SAARC region; the direct effect of economic growth becomes negative; however, financial development indicators act as an important driver for increase in human capital in SAARC region. The implications of present research relate to heightening the need for labor market reforms and making the educational system more flexible.     

Oil prices and exchange rates in oil-exporting countries: evidence from TAR and M-TAR models

The paper studies the long-run relation and short-run dynamics between real oil prices and real exchange rates in a sample of 13 oil-exporting countries. The purpose of the study is to examine the possibility of Dutch disease in these countries. Tests of cointegration using threshold and momentum-threshold autoregressive (TAR and M-TAR) models suggest the possibility of the disease in 3-out-of 13 countries??Bolivia, Mexico and Norway. For these countries, we also find that (a) oil prices have a long-run effect on the exchange rates; and (b) exchange rates adjust faster to positive deviations from the equilibrium; and (c) there is no evidence of short-run causality between real exchange rates and real oil prices in either direction. Over all, these findings suggest a weak link between oil prices and real exchange rates and thus limited evidence in favor of the Dutch disease.     

The effect of the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide emissions

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on world emissions of a greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. We use a large unbalanced panel data consisting of 177 countries from 1980 to 2006. The key finding of this paper is that there are structural breaks in the data that demonstrate the effects of the international agreement. While carbon dioxide emissions declined for industrialized (Annex B) countries since the signing of the international agreement, the effect of income per capita is much larger during these years. However in the same period, the effect of industrial production has declined not just for industrialized countries but for developing countries as well. The results are robust to the exclusion of the US and Australia as Annex B countries since they had not ratified the protocol by 2006.     

Penalized estimation of panel vector autoregressive models: A panel LASSO approach

This paper proposes LASSO estimation specific for panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) models. The penalty term allows for shrinkage for different lags, for shrinkage towards homogeneous coefficients across panel units, for penalization of lags of variables belonging to another cross-sectional unit, and for varying penalization across equations. The penalty parameters therefore build on time series and cross-sectional properties that are commonly found in PVAR models. Simulation results point towards advantages of using the proposed LASSO for PVAR models over ordinary least squares in terms of forecast accuracy. An empirical forecasting application including 20 countries supports these findings.     

External resources and economic growth: New evidence from EAGLE countries using PMG framework

This study attempts to explore the relationship between economic growth and external resources in the case of emerging and growth-leading economies (EAGLE). Among these economies, a panel of eight countries was studied over the period of 1986–2014. Empirical analyses were performed using panel cointegration and pooled mean group framework. Our findings support positive long- and short-run relationships between imports and gross domestic product (GDP). The results also reveal a negative and significant long-run relationship between foreign direct investment and GDP, whereas no significant evidence has been noted for the short run. Moreover, remittances in EAGLE countries have failed to justify any contribution to GDP in both long and short runs.     

Ethnic Fractionalization,Governance and Loan Defaults in Africa

We present a theoretical model of an imperfectly competitive loans market that is suitable for emerging economies in Africa. The model allows for variation in both the level of contract enforcement (the quality of governance) and the degree of market segmentation (the level of ethnic fractionalization). The model predicts a specific form of nonlinearity in the effects of these variables on loan default. Empirical analysis using African panel data for 110 individual banks in 28 countries over 2000–08 provides strong evidence for these predictions. Our results have important implications for the conditions under which policy reform will enhance financial development.     

The effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on real macroeconomic performance in the CEE countries

This paper analyzes the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real output growth, excess credit, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU member states. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2008, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth, higher stocks of FDI, higher current account deficits, and higher excess credit. At the same time, the recent evidence seems to suggest that following the global financial crisis, “hard peg” countries may have experienced a more severe adjustment process than “floaters”. The results are economically and statistically significant and robust.     

Structural FECM: Cointegration in large‐scale structural FAVAR models

Starting from the dynamic factor model for nonstationary data we derive the factor‐augmented error correction model (FECM) and its moving‐average representation. The latter is used for the identification of structural shocks and their propagation mechanisms. We show how to implement classical identification schemes based on long‐run restrictions in the case of large panels. The importance of the error correction mechanism for impulse response analysis is analyzed by means of both empirical examples and simulation experiments. Our results show that the bias in estimated impulse responses in a factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is positively related to the strength of the error correction mechanism and the cross‐section dimension of the panel. We observe empirically in a large panel of US data that these features have a substantial effect on the responses of several variables to the identified permanent real (productivity) and monetary policy shocks.     

Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence

This paper tests for long-run ex post real interest parity (RIP) among the major European Union (EU) countries over the period 1979–1998 using a new test, due to Im, Pesaran, and Shin (1997), that allows one to confirm or reject RIP depending on whether a panel data set comprising real interest differentials is stationary or not. This methodology offers substantial advantages over the univariate Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests that might accept the null of non-stationarity on account of low test power. Strong evidence of onshore RIP occurs during 1986–1990 and 1993–1998 with the half life of a random shock to parity estimated at 2–3 months. There is no evidence of RIP during 1990–1993 despite the easing of remaining capital controls in 1990.     

Is there a unit root in the inflation rate? Evidence from sequential break and panel data models

Using sequential trend break and panel data models, we investigate the unit root hypothesis for the inflation rates of thirteen OECD countries. With individual country tests, we find evidence of stationarity in only four of the thirteen countries. The results are more striking with the panel data model. We can strongly reject the unit root hypothesis both for a panel of all thirteen countries and for a number of smaller panels consisting of as few as three countries. The non-rejection of the unit root hypothesis for inflation is very fragile to even a small amount of cross-section variation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does foreign aid procurement in resource-rich countries depend on these countries’ financial development and institutional quality? Evidence from PVECM and quantile-on-quantile regression

The underlying structure of the global economy has undergone major structural changes over the last two decades. These transformations have been powered by globalisation, technological development and multilateral trade agreements. The more open global economy has benefitted the global community, but many resource-rich developing countries are struggling to keep pace with more developed countries. As these resource-rich countries attempt to catch up with more developed economies, many rely on foreign aid to develop their institutions of governance and financial sector for a more knowledge-intensive economy. This study analyses the long- and short-run associations between foreign development aid procurement, financial development, and institutional quality in resource-rich countries from 2005 to 2020, employing the panel vector error-correction (PVECM) model and Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR). Our analysis shows that, in the short run, there is a strong endogenous nexus between foreign aid procurement, quality of institutions and financial development. Furthermore, the results reveal that financial development and higher institutional development assist resource-rich countries in procuring foreign developmental aid in the long run. These findings suggest that a financial system which functions well, and favourable institutional governance are critical for these countries to secure foreign aid to put them on a path to sustainable development.     

Real estate collateral value and investment: The case of China

Previous research on the United States and Japan finds economically large impacts of changing real estate collateral value on firm investment that amplified the business cycles of those countries. Working with unique data on land values in 35 major Chinese markets and a panel of firms outside the real estate industry, we estimate investment equations that yield no evidence of a collateral channel effect. Further analysis indicates that China’s debt is not characterized by the frictions that give rise to collateral channel effects elsewhere. Essentially, financially constrained borrowers appear able credibly to commit to repay debt in China. While there is no impact on investment via the collateral channel, our results should not be interpreted as implying there will be no negative fallout from a potential real estate bust on the Chinese economy. There likely would be, but through different channels.     

A PANEL DATA APPROACH FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION: MEASURING THE BENEFITS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF HONG KONG WITH MAINLAND CHINA

We propose a simple‐to‐implement panel data method to evaluate the impacts of social policy. The basic idea is to exploit the dependence among cross‐sectional units to construct the counterfactuals. The cross‐sectional correlations are attributed to the presence of some (unobserved) common factors. However, instead of trying to estimate the unobserved factors, we propose to use observed data. We use a panel of 24 countries to evaluate the impact of political and economic integration of Hong Kong with mainland China. We find that the political integration hardly had any impact on the growth of the Hong Kong economy. However, the economic integration has raised Hong Kong's annual real GDP by about 4%. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.