Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Consumer Search: An Examination of the Retail Gasoline Market

This article proposes a new explanation for why retail prices respond more quickly to cost increases than cost decreases. I develop a search model that assumes consumers’ expectations of prices are based on prices observed during previous purchases. This model predicts that consumers search less when prices are falling, which results in higher profit margins and a slower price response to cost changes. I then empirically examine patterns of retail gasoline price response and price dispersion to show that this model predicts observed price behavior better than previously suggested explanations.     

Share,price and category expenditure—geographic market effects and private labels

Focusing on the interaction between national brands and private labels, this paper has two main empirical contributions: (i) a simultaneous system of demand (share), price and expenditure equations is estimated, and (ii) differences in the structure of the local geographic market are incorporated into the analysis. The former represents an important step in understanding the complete nature of private label and national brand interaction, while the latter is important for understanding the impact of the local retail environment on market behaviour. IRI scanner data from 1991 and 1992 are used to estimate a five‐equation system across 135 food product categories and 59 geographic markets. The results suggest that concentration at both the manufacturer and retailer level can significantly affect private label and national brand price. However, while increased retailer concentration is associated with higher national brand and private label prices, higher manufacturer concentration is associated with higher national brand but lower private label prices. Increases in national brand advertising has the effect of raising national brand price and share, but lowering private label price and share. This is consistent with previous research and suggests that advertising and local market conditions play a significant role in the ability of national brands to price at a premium over private labels. Finally, marketing decision variables, such as display activity and private label distribution, can have an important impact on total category expenditure. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Odd Prices at Retail Gasoline Stations: Focal Point Pricing and Tacit Collusion

This study empirically investigates the theory that odd‐numbered pricing points can be used as focal points to facilitate tacit collusion. Like other retailers, gasoline stations in the United States disproportionately sell at prices ending in odd digits. I show that station prices are higher and change less frequently in locations using more odd prices (particularly those ending in 5 or 9), even after controlling for other market characteristics. The evidence suggests that the use of pricing points can be an effective mechanism for tacitly coordinating prices, providing an alternative explanation for the widespread use of odd prices in retail markets.     

The Social and Revenue Effects of State Alcoholic Beverage Control

A bstract . The operation of a state monopoly on retail sales of alcoholic beverages is often viewed as an outdated relic of Prohibition. However, the control states have a significantly lower consumption rate per capita and the price level is lower than in open or competitive states. The alcoholism rate is also lower in the control states than in the open states. The alcoholism and consumption conclusions are valid even given regional socioeconomic differences. Even though the prices are lower in control states than open states, the competitive forces in neighboring states cause prices to be lower in the retail outlets on the border; hence, illegal transportation of liquor causes the official consumption rate of the in-state border counties to be lower than the interior counties. The social and revenue effects of state control make it an effective policy.     

基于供需平衡的卷烟零售户合理化布局规划探讨

目前国内大多数卷烟专卖部门在卷烟零售网点布局规划中所普遍使用的规划听证方案存在较大误差,不利于卷烟市场的健康稳定持续发展。卷烟专卖管理部门应该通过普查和抽样调查获得当地卷烟消费情况的基本数据,并在此基础上结合卷烟供应状况得出各辖区卷烟供需差异,通过对数据和当地实际情况进行分析计算解决该地区是否应该新增持证烟草专卖零售户以及具体增加户数的问题。     

A comment on gasoline prices and urban structure

The effect of higher gasoline prices on urban concentration and aggregate work travel is investigated with a simple closed-city general equilibrium model used by Robson and Scheffman. Their approximate solution is shown to be invalid at reasonable parameter values; for the case of a Cobb-Douglas utility function, numerical solution indicates a long-run reduction in average trip length of 1.4% to 2.9% from an increase in transportation cost of 0.5 cents per mile. It is noted that this is still much larger than estimates obtained by other means.     

Bounded rationality,anchoring-and-adjustment sentiment,and asset pricing

This paper presents a framework that incorporates an investor’s limited attention and anchoring and adjustment sentiment and their joint effects on asset pricing, with endogenous cost of neglecting part of the dividends and the asymmetric rationality levels of investors. We find that the combined effect of the two bounded rationality factors is often embodied in the “loss”, and the retail investors are insensitive to market sentiment and forced to pay more cognitive loss. A higher level of investor rationality and bullish market sentiment will jointly increase demand and then prices, while the effects of different bounded rationality factors are asymmetric.     

Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

Appropriate real‐time forecasting models for the US retail price of gasoline yield substantial reductions in the mean‐squared prediction error (MSPE) at horizons up to 2 years as well as substantial increases in directional accuracy. Even greater MSPE reductions are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most successful forecasting models. Pooled forecasts have lower MSPE than the US Energy Information Administration gasoline price forecasts and the gasoline price expectations in the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We also show that as much as 39% of the decline in gas prices between June and December 2014 was predictable. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-store competition: Market segmentation or interlacing?

This paper develops a model for multi-store competition between firms. Using the fact that different firms have different outlets and produce horizontally differentiated goods, we obtain a pure strategy equilibrium where firms choose a different location for each outlet and firms' locations are interlaced. The location decisions of multi-store firms are completely independent of each other. Firms choose locations that minimize transportation costs of consumers. Moreover, generically, the subgame perfect equilibrium is unique and when the firms have an equal number of outlets, prices are independent of the number of outlets.     

Pain at the pump: Gasoline prices and subjective well-being

In recent years, there has been growing interest in the health implications of rising gasoline prices. This paper considers the impact of gasoline prices on subjective well-being, as captured by survey questions on happiness and life satisfaction. Using rich data from the DDB Worldwide Communications Life Style™ survey, we document a negative relationship between gasoline prices and self-reported life satisfaction over the period 1985–2005. The estimated reduction in well-being, moreover, is found to be nearly twice as large among groups of likely car owners. Interestingly, although rising gasoline prices lead to an immediate deterioration in subjective well-being, analyses of lagged prices suggest that well-being almost fully rebounds 1 year later and changes very little each year thereafter. Our contemporaneous estimates imply that rising gasoline prices generate well-being losses comparable to faltering labor market conditions, and likely offset some of the physical health benefits found in previous research.     

Competition in large markets

This paper evaluates the simplifying assumption that producers compete in a large market without substantial strategic interactions using nonparametric regressions of producers' choices on market size. With such atomistic competition, increasing the number of consumers leaves the distributions of producers' prices and other choices unchanged. In many models featuring non‐trivial strategic considerations, producers' prices fall as their numbers increase. I examine observations of restaurants' sales, seating capacities, exit decisions, and prices from 222 US cities. Given factor prices and demographic variables, increasing a city's size increases restaurants' average sales and decreases their exit rate and prices. These results suggest that strategic considerations lie at the heart of restaurant pricing and turnover. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gasoline prices,transport costs,and the U.S. business cycles

The effects of gasoline prices on the U.S. business cycles are investigated. In order to distinguish between gasoline supply and gasoline demand shocks, the price of gasoline is endogenously determined through a transportation sector that uses gasoline as an input of production. The model is estimated for the U.S. economy using five macroeconomic time series, including data on transport costs and gasoline prices. The results show that although standard shocks in the literature (e.g., technology shocks, monetary policy shocks) have significant effects on the U.S. business cycles in the long run, gasoline supply and demand shocks play an important role in the short run.     

Vertical structure and the risk of rent extraction in the electricity industry

This paper studies how competition and vertical structure jointly determine generating capacities, retail prices, and welfare in the electricity industry. Analyzing a model in which demand is uncertain and retailers must commit to retail prices before they buy electricity in the wholesale market, we show that welfare is highest if competition in generation and retailing is combined with vertical separation. Vertically integrated generators choose excessively high retail prices and capacities to avoid rent extraction in the wholesale market when their retail demand exceeds their capacity. Vertical separation eliminates the risk of rent extraction and yields lower retail prices.     

Detecting speculative bubbles in an IT-intensive stock market

Using a battery of unit root test procedures and cointegration analysis with alternative null hypotheses we find some evidence of speculative bubbles in the Finnish stock market for monthly data on industry portfolio stock prices and returns from the 1990s. When analyzing the time series behavior of stock market prices and returns against the development of certain macroeconomic fundamentals, the bubbles seem to be present especially in the information technology (IT) prices and only during the latter half of the decade. (JEL C22, G12)     

Retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity

The paper investigates the relation between retail investors’ participation in trading and aggregate stock market liquidity. The findings show a positive and significant relation between retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity. Examination of the determinants of retail investors’ trading reveals that, on average, retail investors with more diversified trading activity tend to trade when liquidity is higher, the frequency of their arrival to the market is not affected by the level of liquidity, and retail investors are willing to trade at a lower liquidity level as sellers than as buyers. Moreover, retail investors’ trading does not create price noise at the aggregate market level. Overall, the evidence suggests that retail investors contribute to market quality.     

A study of measuring influence of advertising and forecasting cigarette sales

This study investigated the effect of advertising on cigarette sales, particularly after 1967. Data were collected using sources of the Statistical abstract of the U.S., the Historical Statistics of the U.S. and Vital Statistics between 1955 and 1979. A multiple regression model was used to analyze the data. Cigarette consumption was used as a dependent variable. Disposable Income, Death Rate due to cancer of the respiratory system/total cancer death, advertising outlays for cigarettes: Newspapers and television advertisement/total advertising cost, cigarette-production (including long and regular sizes), sales outlets, loyalty/total loyalty, average price for cigarettes and a dummy variable were used as independent variables. Analysis revealed that there is a significant negative relationship between cigarette-consumption and total cancer death and average prices on the one hand, and a significant positive association between loyalty and cigarette consumption on the other. Although advertising expenditures are not statistically significant, increased spending on advertising has an increasing effect on cigarette-consumption.     

Mixed random forest,cointegration, and forecasting gasoline prices

One of the most successful forecasting machine learning (ML) procedures is random forest (RF). In this paper, we propose a new mixed RF approach for modeling departures from linearity that helps identify (i) explanatory variables with nonlinear impacts, (ii) threshold values, and (iii) the closest parametric approximation. The methodology is applied to weekly forecasts of gasoline prices, cointegrated with international oil prices and exchange rates. Recent specifications for nonlinear error correction (NEC) models include threshold autoregressive models (TAR) and double-threshold smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models. We propose a new mixed RF model specification strategy and apply it to the determinants of weekly prices of the Spanish gasoline market from 2010 to 2019. In particular, the mixed RF is able to identify nonlinearities in both the error correction term and the rate of change of oil prices. It provides the best weekly gasoline price forecasting performance and supports the logistic error correction model (ECM) approximation.     

Anticipation,Tax Avoidance,and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

Least‐squares estimates of the response of gasoline consumption to a change in the gasoline price are biased toward zero, given the endogeneity of gasoline prices. A seemingly natural solution to this problem is to instrument for gasoline prices using gasoline taxes, but this approach tends to yield implausibly large price elasticities. We demonstrate that anticipatory behavior provides an important explanation for this result. Gasoline buyers increase purchases before tax increases and delay purchases before tax decreases, rendering the tax instrument endogenous. Including suitable leads and lags in the regression restores the validity of the IV estimator, resulting in much lower elasticity estimates. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions

Recently the proposal has been made to raise gasoline taxes in the United States to curb carbon emissions. The existing literature on the sensitivity of gasoline consumption to changes in price may not be appropriate for evaluating the effectiveness of such a tax. First, most of these studies fail to address the endogeneity of gasoline prices. Second, the responsiveness of gasoline consumption to a change in tax may differ from the responsiveness of consumption to an average change in price. We address these challenges using a variety of methods including traditional single‐equation regression models, estimated by least squares or instrumental variables methods, and structural vector autoregressions. Our preferred approach exploits the historical variation in US federal and state gasoline taxes. Our most credible estimates imply that a 10‐cent per gallon increase in the gasoline tax would reduce carbon emissions from vehicles in the United States by about 1.5%. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reverse Pricing and Revenue Sharing in a Vertical Market

Advancing in information technology has empowered firms with unprecedented flexibility when interacting with each other. We compare welfare results in a vertical market (e.g., manufacturers and retailers) for several types of pricing strategies depending upon the following: (1) which side (retailers or manufacturers) chooses retail prices; and (2) whether there is revenue sharing or linear pricing between the two sides. Our results are as follows. Under revenue sharing, retail prices (and thus industry profits) are higher if and only if they are chosen by the side featuring less competition. Under linear pricing, however, retail prices are higher if they are chosen by the side featuring more competition (for linear demand functions). Relative to linear pricing, revenue sharing always leads to lower retail prices, higher consumer surplus and social surplus. However, the comparison on industry profits depends on the demand elasticity ratios. Revenue sharing raises industry profits when the elasticity ratios are small, but the results are reversed when the elasticity ratios are large. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.