Agricultural exports and economic growth in less developed countries

This article examines the contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth in less developed countries (LDCs). A sources‐of‐growth equation is developed from a dual economy model where agricultural and nonagricultural sectors are both divided into export and nonexport subsectors. This is then estimated using panel data for 62 LDCs for 1974–1995. Results provide evidence that there are significant structural differences in economic growth between low, lower‐middle, and upper‐income LDCs. Investment in the agricultural export subsector has a statistically identical impact on economic growth as investment in the nonagricultural export subsector. The marginal productivities in nonexport subsectors are over 30% lower than those in respective export subsectors. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that export‐promotion policies should be balanced.     

An Analysis of the Linkage Between Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Pakistan

Summary

This article examines the relationship between agricultural exports and economic growth. Pakistan is used as a case study due to its large amounts of agricultural exports which have competed with industry for government support. This study estimates three simultaneous equations representing GDP, agricultural exports, and total imports while incorporating factors such as income remittances from abroad, investment, and manufactured exports as independent variables. The timing of this information is critical as Pakistan's policy makers now face major agricultural reforms in their quest for development. The estimation results show that a favorable relationship exists between agricultural exports and growth in GDP.     

基于二元边际和贸易关系的中国农产品出口动态研究

[目的]文章基于动态的视角,测度中国农产品出口的贸易关系和二元边际变化,对农产品出口整体情况以及出口源地维度和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行研究。[方法]基于2000—2016年中国海关贸易库数据,测算出口贸易关系、贸易二元边际和区位基尼系数,对农产品出口动态的整体情况及其在出口源地和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行描述,并进行聚类分析。[结果]（1）从出口动态整体情况看,农产品出口增长迅速,集约边际占据主导,贸易关系“大进大出”。（2）从时空演化格局看,在出口源地维度,东部省份出口优势明显,空间格局高度集中,近年来集聚程度有所下降。（3）在出口目的国维度,东亚、东南亚、北美是主要的出口目的地和出口扩展地,集聚水平长期下降,原因是出口格局由“一超”变“多强”且中国出口到了更多的国家。（4）当同时考虑两个维度时,中国城市的出口扩展结构高度相似,绝大多数城市的扩展边际的贸易在全球分布相对均匀,东亚和东南亚为主要的出口扩展市场。[结论]为了保障农产品出口的稳定增长,既要努力维护贸易关系、实现集约边际增长,也要积极扩展新贸易联系;为了优化农产品出口格局,要推进中西部地区因地制宜挖掘特色农产品、开拓新...     

Structural transformation away from agriculture in growing open economies

Understanding how and why economies structurally transform away from agriculture as they grow is crucial for developing sensible growth strategies and farm and food policies. Typically, analysts who study this and related structural change issues focus on sectoral shares of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. This article draws on trade theory to focus as well on exports. It also notes that the trade costs of some products are too high at early stages of development to make international trade profitable, so a nontradables sector is recognized. The general equilibrium model presented in the theory section provides hypotheses about structural transformation in differently endowed open economies as they grow. Those hypotheses are tested econometrically with a new annual endowments dataset covering 1995–2018 for more than 130 countries. The results are consistent with long run de-agriculturalization in the course of national economic growth in terms not only of sectoral shares of GDP and employment but also of exports. We find those shares are not significantly affected by either differences across countries in relative factor endowments or relative rates of sectoral assistance from government; but the agricultural GDP and employment shares are higher the higher is the share of agriculture in national exports.     

AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: ESTIMATES OF INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY

This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand and supply of agricultural exports from developing countries, on the basis of (a) a consistent and fully specified supply and demand model, and (b) statistical estimation procedures not frequently used in the estimation of agricultural export functions. Estimates of price and income elasticities of demand for aggregate agricultural exports for all developing countries taken together — as distinct from individual exporting countries — are found to be low; moreover, export price as distinguished from non-price factors plays a relatively insignificant role in increasing export supply. Hence, an attempt by all developing countries to expand traditional agricultural exports with low price elasticity of demand may not yield rising earnings for all; but in fact may result in falling export revenues. Insofar as individual exports of all developing countries (not individual countries) are concerned, income and price elasticities of demand for such tropical commodities as tea, coffee, cocoa and bananas are also found to be low, except for new, non-traditional exports like pineapples. This indicates the importance of diversification of agricultural exports as a vehicle for their future growth.     

Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa. We choose nine Sub‐Saharan African countries that are heavily dependent on a single agricultural commodity for a significant portion of their income. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a structural non‐linear dynamic model. The novel aspect of this study is that we determine whether the response of per capita GDP for the selected Sub‐Saharan African countries is different to unexpected increases in agricultural commodity prices as opposed to decreases in prices. We conclude that there is very little evidence that an unanticipated price increase (decrease) will lead to a significantly different response in per capita incomes.     

The effects of China's growth on the food prices and the food exports of other developing countries

This article explores the impacts of China's growth in the international markets of agricultural products along two dimensions: food price inflation and export growth in other developing countries. China's food imports of vegetable oils have grown dramatically over the last decade, linking China's economic growth to the recent increases in global food prices. If China is a source of global food price inflation, exporting countries will benefit whether they sell directly to China or not. These direct and indirect linkages are explored using a short‐run, partial‐equilibrium model of international trade in agricultural products in which consumer prices and trade costs are derived from bilateral trade flows. China's effects on food prices and exports are estimated by reducing Chinese food expenditures in 2007 by half, roughly China's level of expenditures in 1995. Results indicate that food prices as measured by CES price indexes in developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America would have been reduced by 1.27%, 0.32%, and 0.22%, respectively. China has been an important source of growth for exporters selling directly to China. There is no evidence of export growth due to an overall increase in food prices caused by China's growth.     

CAUSALITY BETWEEN PRODUCTIVITY AND EXPORTS IN AGRICULTURE: EVIDENCE FROM ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA

This paper examines the causal relationship between agricultural productivity and exports for selected Asian and Latin American countries. Alternative views about the causal relationship between these variables of economic interest exist. Economic theory provides no firm basis to judge whether productivity causes exports or exports cause productivity (export-led growth). Since this issue is empirical, econometric tests are utilised to investigate the nature of this causality. Test results are mixed although the export-led growth hypothesis is validated in a few cases.     

Externalities in the agricultural export sector and economic growth: a developing country perspective

For years economists have ignored the diversity in agriculture and its potential to increase long run growth rates by enhancing a country's knowledge base. Non-traditional agriculture requires significant investments in the infrastructure and knowledge; and therefore, has the potential to increase long run growth rates. Policy makers in developing countries have tended to enact macroeconomic policies designed to enhance the manufacturing sector at the expense of the agricultural sector. A theoretical model is developed to explain the dynamics between two non-traditional export sectors and the long run economic growth of the country. The model illustrates that growth in highly perishable agricultural exports, not domestic production of manufactured goods, can potentially lead to higher long run growth rates. The model is applied to the fruit and flower industries in Colombia to bring forth an example with real world relevance.     

U.S. Agricultural Trade with Mexico

Abstract

This study examined the effects of exchange rates, economic growth, trade liberalization, and export assistance programs on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico. The Commodity Credit Corporation's GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program reduces the risk associated with export financing and payment. The impact of the export credit guarantee program on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico was estimated in an import demand model using quarterly data from 1980 to 1996. The results indicate that for every $1 of export credit guarantees, Mexican imports of U.S. farm products increased $0.30. Real income growth in Mexico, however, was the most important factor in the expansion of U.S. exports. Trade liberalization under NAFTA also increased U.S. exports to Mexico.     

The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets

Short‐run responses of export and domestic shares of total agricultural output to changes in stocks of domestic savings (SAV), development assistance (ODA), private foreign commercial capital (PFX) and other variables is investigated. A profit function approach is used. Time series data for 19 sub‐Saharan African countries are pooled into three panels using similarities in changes in economic policy regime. Statistical evidence suggests that for the panel of countries that were undertaking liberalized economic reforms, the slope coefficients of some of the variables in the models have changed significantly between 1970–1980 and 1981–1993. For the 1981–1993 period, the impacts of ODA, PFX and SAV on export and domestic shares were different for this panel. The effect of increases in agricultural labor was different across the three panels. There is also evidence that productivity growth in the export agriculture sub‐sector is negative in all the groups. It is recommended that to halt the decline in export share of agricultural output in the group of countries that have undertaken substantial improvements in economic policy environment, efforts must be made to reduce the negative impact of domestic savings and agricultural labor, while at the same time working to reduce the bias of development assistance against food security.     

THE EROSION OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN AN OIL ECONOMY: THE CASE OF NIGERIA

After several years of oil production and exports with attendant revenue influx, the sector is yet to make a significant impact in Nigeria's economic growth. Contrary to the hopes and expectations that greeted the oil discovery, the non-oil export sector of the economy, more specifically the agricultural sector, has been declining consistently with further increases in oil exports. This paper is intended to provide an empirical analysis of an aspect of structural change that has taken place in the Nigerian economy. The hypothesis investigated is that an increase in oil exports results in higher relative prices on non-tradeable to tradeable goods and an appreciation of the domestic currency, hence a loss of the competitiveness of the agricultural export sector in the international market. This phenomenon, popularly known as the ‘Dutch disease’, has been vigorously discussed in the United Kingdom, Norway and the Netherlands, has also received much attention from Australian economists in relation to minerals.     

The Current State of the Russian Agricultural Sector

Russia's agriculture produces around 3.7 per cent of the country's GDP, employs 9.2 per cent of the national workforce and contributes around 6 per cent of the country's exports. The sector has shown remarkable resilience in the face of wider economic turbulence. Self‐sufficiency rates for the main agricultural commodities are relatively high. Agricultural exports have grown very significantly since 2000 especially for wheat and meslin (wheat and rye mixture). Meat production has been growing steadily, particularly in the poultry and pork sectors. Whilst the agri‐food sector has great potential to play an even more prominent role in Russia's economy, it suffers from relatively low productivity and an outdated technological base. The main drive for efficiency has come mainly from the relatively large‐scale agricultural firms, who generated more than half of the total value of agricultural output in 2016. Foreign policy instability, including economic sanctions, the devaluation of the national currency and declining economic growth have weakened the sector and caused an increase in the prices of imported goods and equipment. At the same time Russian products have replaced high value‐added imports and Russia's agricultural producers are expanding into new markets.     

中国经济增长要素的实证分析

消费、投资、进出口被喻为拉动中国国民经济增长的三大要素。本文通过建立多元线性回归模型和创新模型，利用1990年到2010年的国民生产总值（GDP）、最终消费支出（FC）、资本形成总额（I）、货物进口总额（IM）、货物出口总额（EX）净出口（t）的数据，分析各个要素对中国GDP增长的贡献率的大小随着时间的变化规律，进而发现中国经济的主要影响因素，最终来确定不同时期GDP增长的主要贡献要素。     

Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration

This article presents evidence concerning the pattern of New Zealand dairy exports duration and survival from 1989 to 2017. It also analyses the influence of a set of supply, demand and gravity‐type drivers on the hazard rate for New Zealand dairy export relationships. The findings are summarised as follows. First, New Zealand dairy export relationships are dynamic with numerous entries and exits to and from foreign markets. Around half of the relationships survived for only 1–2 years at the sequence level. Second, duration of sequence, left‐censoring, initial export, decomposed sequences, New Zealand export price index, the number of cows available for dairy production, the number of origins and destinations, and destination partner’s GDP are the most significant factors reducing the hazard rate of export relationships. As regards the effects of the non‐tariff measures, it is interesting that technical barriers of trade are found to significantly decrease the hazard rate. Only pre‐shipment inspection and contingent trade protective measures are significant impediments to New Zealand dairy export relationships. Finally, hazard probabilities for New Zealand dairy export relationships are estimated to be ‘L‐shaped’ over time, whether or not non‐tariff measures are applied to New Zealand dairy products.     

中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易空间关联与溢出效应——基于RCEP框架下的实证

目的 探讨中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜的空间关联与溢出效应,揭示中国辛辣类蔬菜外销竞争力情况,促进我国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易发展,并为相关农产品贸易政策提供借鉴。方法 文章基于反距离平方的权重矩阵测度了各伙伴国经济空间关联程度,并以2011—2020年中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜的贸易额为面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型,分析中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易的空间溢出效应。结果 中国GDP、RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜总产量、RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜单产和绿色贸易壁垒程度的空间溢出效应显著为负,且贸易距离整体上对RCEP伙伴国的出口贸易额呈现正向的促进作用,RCEP伙伴国GDP和中国辛辣类蔬菜总产量的空间溢出效应显著为正,中国辛辣类蔬菜单产对中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易的空间影响不显著。结论 中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易存在空间负相关关系,即表现出一定的空间聚集现象,建议强化伙伴国空间关联度、优化产品出口结构和完善质量标准体s系。     

Trade and agricultural development in the 1980s and the challenges for the 1990s: Asia

Asian developing countries have had varying experiences in trade and agricultural development in the 1980s, attributable in part to their differing stages of economic development and structural characteristics. Other important influences relate to the external economic environment and the policy choices made by their governments not only during the period but also in the preceding decade. The achievements of Asian developing countries under the adverse external conditions of the 1980s are discussed in terms of their macrocconomic and agricultural growth, the commodity structure of agricultural growth, their food production and trade, the expansion and diversification of their agricultural exports, and the policy and nonpolicy factors affecting them. Special attention is given to the role of policy reforms implemented in China and the South Asian countries, following similar policy developments in Northeast and Southeast Asia in the 1960s and 1970s, toward greater openness in their trade regime and increased private-sector participation in the economy. These reforms have contributed to the observed acceleration in gup , agricultural, and export growth in the 1980s. However, macroeconomic imbalances have emerged that threaten the sustainability of economic liberalization in those countries. The major challenges for the 1990s also differ among the Asian developing countries. In the industrially advanced Northeast economies of Taiwan and South Korea, the primary need is to ease the transition of the remaining rural population as farm incomes continue to fall and workers move to industrial and service activities. This challenge has to be addressed in the context of growing external pressure to further open their domestic market for agricultural imports. Among the Southeast and South Asian countries, there is a need to reduce the existing policy biases against agriculture, particularly against export crop production. Moreover, China and the South Asian countries face the additional challenges of continuing to deregulate their trade regime and internal markets, and of promoting macroeconomic stability. Despite the external trend recently toward regionalism, Asian developing countries generally seem committed to an open trading system, on which in fact their past impressive economic performance has been predicated. An important challenge for them in the 1990s is to play an active role in arresting and reversing any protectionist tendencies arising from the formation of regional trading blocs and to support multilateral initiatives such as the Uruguay Round that promote global trade liberalization.     

黑龙江省农业碳排放、科技投入与经济增长关系研究

[目的]以黑龙江省为例,首先对其农业碳排放总量进行测度,再研究农业碳排放同经济增长、科技投入之间的关系。[方法]利用1996~2013年的统计数据,从4个方面估算了黑龙江省农业碳排放量,进而采用自回归滞后分布模型(ARDL模型)对农业碳排放量、经济增长以及科技投入之间的关系进行实证分析。[结果]农业碳排放量、GDP增长和科技投入存在长期稳定关系,但长期来讲农业碳排放量增长速率远大于GDP增长速率;GDP增长对农业碳排放总量存在显著的正向影响,且长期影响程度远大于短期;科技投入对农业碳排放具有抑制作用且存在滞后效应,其中长期的抑制作用为12.4%,短期为3.9%,当滞后期为两年时,抑制作用尤为显著。[结论]经济增长会促进黑龙江省农业碳排放的增加,而科技投入则能对农业碳排放产生有效地抑制作用,因而黑龙江省可以通过增加农业科技投入来降低农业碳排放。     

Does China's demand boom curb Australian iron ore mining depletion?

Australia's resources boom is underpinned by increased demand from industrialising China and a rise in export prices. Current depletion rates will soon exhaust currently known reserves of iron ore and coal. This paper presents a dynamic optimisation model of a growing open economy where a social planner chooses the time path for depletion of a non‐renewable resource during a demand‐led resources boom. We find that for particular functional forms and in the absence of extraction and social costs, the optimal depletion rate equals the difference between the price elasticity of export demand times the world interest rate and growth in export demand. In contrast to the existing literature, we show that the optimal depletion rate is unaffected by a temporary increase in price, but reduced by growth in demand which is in turn sustained by offshore steel production and urbanisation. The main theoretical implication is that growth in export demand from China reduces the depletion rate. Australian iron ore exports, simulated using this theory, move together with actual volumes over the period 1995–2011, and the error between simulated and actual iron ore exports is lower for the model in this paper than it is for the model without growth in export demand.     

National policies and the sectoral pattern of economic growth

This article presents tests of whether the kinds of "national" policy variables used to explain cross-country variation in the growth of aggregate GDP per capita can also successfully explain per capita growth in the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors of developing countries. There are four main results of interest. First, relative to nonagriculture, convergence is much slower in agriculture and the burden of population growth is generally much higher. Second, while orthodox economic policies share positive associations with economic growth in the nonagricultural sectors of developing countries, such policies fail to robustly predict variation in agricultural growth. Third, size of government indicators often yield an "unexpected" positive association with agricultural growth. And finally, although there is some evidence that fewer price controls are associated with faster agricultural growth, these associations are statistically quite weak and quantitatively quite small.