棉花期货面面观

作为事关“三农”和纺织品生产的大宗农产商品,棉花在国民经济中居于重要地位;棉花种植和纺织业(涉棉产业)在新疆兵团、黄淮海平原及长江中下游平原的农垦企业中具有较重要地位。5月20日,中国证监会批准中国期货市场1996年以来的8年中第一个新品种——棉花期货在郑州商品交易所上市。6月1日,棉花期货在郑州商品交所顺利挂牌交易。棉花期货上市对期货市场发展、完善棉花市场体系、提升中国在国际棉花市场地位等都有深远影响。为此,本刊综合有关资料整理成文,供读者更好地了解机遇与风险并存的期货市场。     

中国棉花市场格局中的新疆棉花营销策略

新疆作为中国最大的棉花主产省区,所生产的棉花和种植的面积都会对中国棉花市场产生巨大影响。伴随国外优质棉花的涌入,新疆棉花在中国棉花市场的垄断地位受到挑战,“卖难”问题El渐显现。面对新疆棉花在中国棉花市场上销售不畅的问题,实施科学、合理、有效的新疆棉花市场营销策略,提升新疆棉花市场竞争力十分重要。     

新疆棉花生产、流通现状及发展方向

新疆棉花在中国棉花产业中乃至世界棉花生产中都具有举足轻重的地位。近几年,随着棉花基地的不断培育和发展,新疆的棉花品质、单产水平都有了明显提高,竞争力不断增强,有效地促进了新疆棉花产业的健康发展,并为带动相关产业的发展和农民收入的稳步增长发挥了重要作用。新疆棉花种植面积、总产、单产、国内销售量均居全国第一,为稳定国内棉花市场、     

培育棉花期货市场 完善棉花市场体系

温家宝总理在第十一届全国代表大会第一次会议上所作的政府工作报告中指出要“稳步发展期货市场”。这一要求符合我国棉花市场的实际需要。随着我国棉花流通体制改革不断深化，多元化的市场格局已经逐步形成，棉花市场正在逐步与世界接轨，从无序走向规范，从幼稚走向成熟。培育和发展棉花期货交易市场，成为完善我国棉花市场体系建设的重要课题。     

2011棉花年度市场形势分析报告

本文将从棉花市场供求关系、经济及政策层面因素分析以及麦棉比价、产业链各方预期、期货市场走势等对棉花市场价格形成影响的其他因素等方面对2011年度棉花市场形势进行初步分析判断,期冀能够为新年度的棉花信贷资金供应和管理工作提供一点参考。一、棉花市场供求关系分析(一)棉花供给情况1.国内棉花产量。从国内棉花生产来     

开展棉花期货交易 扩大棉花流通市场的探索

棉花在我国农业经济发展中具有重要的经济地位，也是关系国计民生的重要商品。改革开放以来，我国棉花流通市场经营主体多元化的格局已经形成，棉花期货市场的交易也有了新的发展。我们认为，深化我国棉花流通体制改革，是在国家宏观调控下，主要依靠市场机制实现棉花资源合理配置的新体制。开展棉花期货交易，对促进棉花流通体制改革，完善棉花市场价格体系，比较真实地反映出未来商品价格变动的趋势，涉棉企业则可以利用期货价格来指导现货经营，这对生产者、经营者都具有较强的指导作用和重要的经济功能。     

基于因子分析法的新疆棉花物流发展因素分析

棉花产业是关系到我国国计民生的重要支柱产业,但滞后的棉花物流发展已成为制约棉花产业增效的瓶颈。本文就新疆棉花物流发展现状,运用因子分析方法,利用SPSS对棉花物流发展过程中的影响因素进行分析,测算出各个因素在棉花物流发展中的影响程度,并提出了发展新疆棉花物流的建议。     

我国棉花市场前景与新疆棉花基地建设风险分析

农业是国民经济的基础,棉花是关系国计民生的战略性物资,棉花生产稳定与否,直接关系到整个农业生产、农民收入水平和棉纺工业的发展。受棉花播种面积和产量提高,国外进口棉花冲击、棉纺行业压缩规模等因素的制约,我国棉花的市场供求关系将逐步发生变化。建设新疆棉花...     

“洋棉花”涌入对我国棉花产业构成冲击

棉花历来是国家一级战略性物资，棉花产业对国计民生、纺织工业以至整个国民经济发展都具有举足轻重的作用。随着近年来国内外棉花市场的需求变化和我国棉花生产的剧烈波动，国内棉花产需格局迅速逆转，新疆乃至全国棉花产业的可持续发展正面临着前所未有的重大挑战和战略抉择。     

新疆棉花购销政策运行分析

棉花购销政策是确保新疆棉花产业持续、健康、稳定发展的基本保障,也是应对棉花市场需求变化、实现产销平衡的重要举措。本文通过介绍新疆棉花购销政策的历史沿革及其对棉花生产的影响,分析了当前新疆棉花购销中存在的问题,在此基础上提出了新时期构建新疆棉花购销政策体系的建议。     

Elasticity of demand for Australian cotton in Japan

Although a relatively small producer, Australia exports more than 90 per cent of its cotton production, making it the world's third largest cotton exporter in recent years. This means that export performance plays a major role in determining the profitability of the Australian cotton industry. The primary aim of this study was to determine the competitive position of Australian cotton in the Japanese market, based on the original non-linear Almost Ideal Demand System model using data from 1972 to 1998. The main findings are that the USA had a relatively strong market position and that Australia needs to improve its cost competitiveness and quality image to advance its market standing.     

Ecosystem impacts of pesticide reductions through Bt cotton adoption

This article examines the ecosystem impacts of transgenic Bt cotton technology resulting from reduced chemical pesticide use. Employing unique panel data from smallholder farmers in India, negative environmental and health effects of pesticide use are quantified with the environmental impact quotient (EIQ), with and without Bt technology. An environmentally sensitive dynamic production function is estimated, treating the environmental risk of pesticide toxicity as an undesirable output in the production process. Negative externalities are significantly lower in Bt than in conventional cotton. The reduction in EIQ through Bt technology adoption has increased from 39 per cent during 2002–2004 to 68 per cent during 2006–2008. Bt adoption has also contributed to higher environmental efficiency. Environmental efficiency is influenced by the quality of Bt technology: high‐quality Bt seeds are associated with higher environmental efficiency than lower‐quality seeds.     

国家宏观政策对棉花市场的影响

我国棉花流通基本上实现了主要依靠市场机制配置棉花资源的新体制,运用多种宏观政策对棉花市场进行调控取得了长足进步,特别是在运用棉花进出口和棉花国家储备调节市场需求方面做得更为突出。该文主要对国家宏观政策特别是进出口和国家专项储备两个手段对市场的实际影响做以绩效分析,并对棉花产业长期稳定发展,建立宏观调控长效机制提出一些看法及建议。     

Transgenic varieties and productivity of smallholder cotton farmers in China

Genetically modified cotton varieties have greater production efficiency for smallholders in farming communities in China. We also find that the adoption of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton varieties leads to a significant decrease in the use of pesticides. Hence, we demonstrate that Bt cotton appears to be an agricultural technology that improves both production efficiency and the environment. In terms of policies, our findings suggest that the government should investigate whether or not they should make additional investments to spread Bt to other cotton regions and to other crops.     

新疆棉花期货套期保值的有效性实证分析

本文通过分析传统套期保值法和最小方差套期保值法,对两种套期保值法的有效性进行实证分析。得出最小方差套期保值法比传统保值方法更加有效,不仅可以降低风险,还能减少资金的占用量,让涉棉企业参与套期保值时,更合理灵活的安排资金。     

Prices,institutions, and determinants of supply in the Malian cotton sector

Cotton, both a source of livelihood for millions of poor rural households and a major source of export revenues, is a vital commodity for the economic and social development of Mali. Inefficiencies in the Malian cotton system at the ginnery and producers’ cooperative levels (e.g., late payment to farmers and poorly functioning credit schemes) have recently led to an important decline in supply, threatening the sustainability of the sector. Using regional data from 1998/1999 to 2008/2009, this study aims to quantitatively assess the contribution of key determinants, such as cotton prices and timely payment, toward the downward trend in cotton area. A dynamic supply model, based on adaptive expectations and partial adjustment, is employed to estimate the effects of prices and institutional factors, such as credit recovery rates and date of payment to farmers, on the Malian cotton supply. Results show that supply responds significantly to cotton prices relative to cereal and fertilizer prices. Date of payment varies across agricultural cycles and late payment negatively influences land devoted to cotton. Low credit repayment rates create disincentives to grow cotton. Therefore, the revitalization of the Malian cotton sector depends upon getting both prices and institutions right.     

Valuing financial,health, and environmental benefits of Bt cotton in Pakistan

Data from a farm survey and choice experiment are used to value the benefits of Bt cotton in Pakistan. Unlike previous research on the economic impacts of Bt, which mostly concentrated on financial benefits in terms of gross margins, we also quantify and monetize health and environmental benefits associated with technology adoption. Due to lower chemical pesticide use on Bt cotton plots, there are significant health advantages in terms of fewer incidents of acute pesticide poisoning, and environmental advantages in terms of higher farmland biodiversity and lower soil and groundwater contamination. Farmers themselves value these positive effects at US$ 79 per acre, of which half is attributable to health and the other half to environmental improvements. Adding average gross margin gains of US$ 204 results in aggregate benefits of US$ 283 per acre, or US$ 1.8 billion for the total Bt cotton area in Pakistan.