按照和谐社会要求推进社会主义新农村建设——“构建和谐社会与社会主义新农村建设研讨会”综述

由上海市经济学会社会主义经济理论专委会与上海金融学院经济发展研究所、党委宣传部、科研处联合举办的“构建和谐社会与社会主义新农村建设研讨会”，于2006年11月16日在上海金融学院召开。上海市经济学会领导、经济界专家学者、市政府职能部门的有关专家、上海金融学院经济发展研究所部分兼职研究员和经济系部分教师近三十余人出席了这次会议。大家联系各自研究特长和调研体会，就有关新农村建设所面临的问题及如何建设新农村等问题进行了热烈讨论。现将观点综述如下：     

县域金融推进新农村建设的若干问题

建设社会主义新农村是我国现代化进程中的重大历史任务，“十一五”时期是社会主义新农村建设打好坚实基础的关键时期。金融业作为现代经济的核心，在推进新农村建设中担负着极为重要的责任。如何发挥县域金融的重要作用，为社会主义新农村建设作出积极贡献，本对此进行一些较为深入的探讨。[第一段]     

支持社会主义新农村建设 促进农行县域业务发展

中央关于推进社会主义新农村建设的战略举措，为县域经济持续、快速发展带来了机遇，也为农业银行资产、负债和中间业务提供了广阔的发展空间。支持社会主义新农村建设，做大做强以县域经济为支撑的农村金融业务，是农业银行落实国家农村金融政策的要求、是支持“三农”、服务“三农”的重要举措，也是农业银行搞活地、县两级行经营，推进综合改革、加快有效发展的必然选择。本文通过对黔东南州县域经济以及农业银行在农村金融市场中业务发展情况进行调查分析，就如何支持县域经济发展、推进社会主义新农村建设谈点粗浅看法。     

新农村 新话题

党的十六届五中全会提出社会主义新农村建设以来，新农村建设已经成为我国政治、经济生活中的热点话题。特别是今年中央一号文件《关于推进社会主义新农村建设的若干意见》和“十一五”规划纲要中，用“生产发展、生活宽裕、乡风文明、村容整洁、管理民主”20个字描绘新农村的美好蓝图，不仅全面深化了解决“三农”问题的战略思想，而且做出了我国现代化建设的重大战略决策。     

整体推进农村金融改革 促进社会主义新农村建设

《中共中央、国务院关于推进社会主义新农村建设的若干意见》（2006年中央一号文件）提出要“切实把建设社会主义新农村的各项任务落到实处，加快农村全面小康和现代化建设步伐”。十届全国人大四次会议的《政府工作报告》也提出要“扎实推进社会主义新农村建设”。建设社会主义新农村，经济发展首当其冲，只有经济发展了，才能建成“生产发展、生活宽裕、乡风文明、村容整洁、管理民主”的社会主义新农村。金融是现代经济的核心，农村经济发展离不开农村金融的支持。     

建设新农村应构建“三大体系”

建设社会主义新农村，既是解决“三农”问题的现实需要，也是全面建设小康社会，加快推进社会主义现代化的必然要求。按照“生产发展、生活宽裕、乡风文明、村容整洁、管理民主”的目标，推进社会主义新农村建设，应注重构建“三大体系”。     

金融要成为推动新农村建设的“杠杆”

推进社会主义新农村建设是党中央统揽全局、着眼长远、与时俱进作出的重大决策，是一项不但惠及亿万农民，而且关系国家长治久安的战略举措。金融作为现代经济的核心，理应责无旁贷地围绕“三农”发挥好杠杆作用，担当起加快社会主义新农村建设的重任。在“新的历史起点”下，迫切需要解决的课题是如何发挥好金融杠杆作用，     

欠发达地区金融人才培育策略浅探

社会主义新农村建设推进了县域经济的发展，也为农行“面向三农，服务县域经济”提供了发展良机。服务新农村建设必然要求为之提供相应的金融服务，而金融服务层次的高低、质量的优劣很大程度上取决于金融从业人员的基本素质。     

长期的发展方向紧迫的现实任务--关于建设社会主义新农村的思考

党的十六届五中全会提出建设社会主义新农村的重大历史任务,科学地阐明了建设社会主义新农村的内涵：“生产发展、生活宽裕、乡风文明、村容整洁、管理民主”。温家宝总理在《政府工作报告》中进一步强调,要扎实推进社会主义新农村建设。建设社会主义新农村,是农村经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设和党的建设全面推进的系统工程,既是长期的发展方向,又是紧迫的现实任务。     

在支持建设社会主义新农村中不能忽视经营风险

建设“生产发展、生活宽裕、乡风明、村容整洁、管理民主”的社会主义新农村，是我们党领导社会主义现代化建设进程中的一项重大的历史任务，对发展现代农业、推进农业战略性调整及增加农民收入、深化农村改革有着极其重要的意义。“收粮不缴税，上学不交费，看病不太贵，贷款不费劲”，这是《中共中央国务院关于推进社会主义新农村建设的若干意见》为中国9亿农民描绘的美好前景。所谓“贷款不费劲”就是在社会主义新农村建设中，农村和农民能够自由、     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.