AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY*

This paper is an econometric study of the Indonesian economy. Our intention is to evaluate the interactions within the Indonesian economy, to forecast the selected economic variables under given assumptions, and to measure the effects of various policies. This is to be achieved through an cconometric analysis which uses the available statistics and which provides an analytical framework for the present national income statistics.     

海南旅游客源市场的现状及发展对策

当前海南旅游接待总人数和旅游总收入在国内仍处于落后水平,入境游客数量相对较少,且客源覆盖面窄,增长十分缓慢。尽管国外客源市场的扩展空间极为有限,但国内高端客源潜力巨大,将成为海南高端客源市场的主体。要促进客源市场发展,就要以培育国内高端客源市场为核心,努力引领国内高端休闲度假和豪华消费潮流;用活用好国家各项支持政策,使广大游客切实从海南旅游特殊政策中受益;加强海南特色文化建设,树立特色鲜明的文化形象;充分发掘各地优势旅游资源,推进地方旅游品牌创建工程;以及创新旅游产品开发理念,提高休闲度假旅游产品质量等。     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF PEDAGOGIC INTERVENTIONS IN FIRST-YEAR ACADEMIC DEVELOPMENT AND MAINSTREAM COURSES IN MICROECONOMICS

This paper analyses the impact of pedagogic interventions in first-year academic development and mainstream courses in microeconomics on students' performance in the final examination. The data for six cohorts, covering the years 1999 and 2001-2005, are pooled, and the Heckman two-part procedure is used to account for those students who started the course but did not write the final examination. The results suggest that the pedagogic interventions have a positive impact on the performance of academic development students relative to the mainstream cohort and on the performance of mainstream students.     

SOCIAL NETWORKS AND ETHNIC NICHES: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper analyses the link between social networks and ethnic occupational niches in the manufacturing sector in South Africa. To this end, it employs the methodology of Bertrand et al. to minimise the omitted variable bias induced by standard approaches investigating network effects and adopts Model's concentration index to define an ethnic niche. The results indicate that 25% of the sample is employed in ethnic niches in the manufacturing sector, but that niche employment varies markedly by language group. In addition, certain language groups tend to be clustered in advantageous niches where monthly income and skill levels are relatively high, while others occupy disadvantageous niches where monthly income and skill levels are relatively low. A number of different econometric specifications find strong evidence of social network effects. This highlights the role that these networks play in forming ethnic niches in the manufacturing sector in South Africa.