Beyond national and technological styles of innovation diffusion: a dynamic perspective on cases from the energy and transport sectors

This article argues that styles of innovation diffusion dynamics depend on both national and niche-specific factors and that their respective influence changes during the innovation diffusion process. Based on a review of approaches, dealing on the one hand with differences in national innovation and technology systems and on the other with process of niche formation and development, a theoretical synthesis and pattern of analysis is suggested for interpreting and comparing empirical findings from two different technology examples. The analysis of combined heat and power (CHP) in Germany, UK and the Netherlands, and of electric vehicles in Germany, Sweden and France allows us to identify different styles of innovation diffusion dynamics. These styles are determined by the relative importance of national and niche-specific factors in different phases of the process of technological change. Support in lent to the hypothesis that a style which combines impulses for innovation at both structural and niche is particularly conducive to radical change.     

Technological similarity in national styles of innovation in a historical perspective

The paper examines some issues related to different styles of innovation in some advenced countries. The statistical work carried out is an attempt to answer the questerion: to what extent do countries' styles of innovation differ and how often do similarities arise? The issue of similarity/dissimilarity of countries' styles of innovation is investigated in the last 100 years for a group of selected countries. The evidence provided is based on a US patent database held at the University of Reading and countries' styles of innovation are measured with the use of the RTA index in four historical periods. The conclusions of the paper are consistent with the theory of national systems of innovation. Countries show very different styles of innovation and, what is more important, this difference is stable over time. However, a selected combination of similar countries occurs in every period, thus underlining the existence of regional groups. These regional groups are the only pairs of countries showing technological similarity historically.     

The dynamic evolution and technological diffusion in Taiwan's TFT-LCD industrial cluster: a network perspective

Industrial clusters evolve dynamically as the external environment changes. To better understand the nature of cluster evolution, which has nurtured economic growth in early 2000s, strategy and organisation scholars have attempted to unpack contributors to cluster evolution from the perspective of the ‘environmental uncertainty’ and ‘resource abundance’ effects. The paper adopts and extend an earlier extant model through empirical testing of the thin-film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) industrial cluster in Taiwan, a developing country. This study modifies the extant network model by adding a diffusion of technological innovation index to cluster evolving. Using the extended case study, the study examines the dynamic evolutionary process in the TFT-LCD industrial cluster. It was found that the evolution of the TFT-LCD industrial cluster resembles the theoretical argument in some respects. The characteristics of network change are modified according to these results. Implication for policymakers and decision-makers of developing countries are also discussed.     

Why study national systems and national styles of innovation?

Many consider that product specialization reflects variations in factor proportions rather than in the knowledge base, but to focus purely on resource allocations would result in stagnant economic development. Therefore a vibrant economy is one where innovation takes place. This shifts the focus of attention away from rational decision-making to learning and recognition that the future has an uncertain outcome. Learning involves four institutional components: the time horizon of the agents, the role of trust, the actual mix of rationality, and the way authority is expressed. Research shows a strong correlation between specialization in trade and specialization in the knowledge base. The National Systems of Innovation approach concludes that important parts of the knowledge base are tacit and emerge from routine basic learning-by-doing, using and -interacting rather than from science and technology search activities. A sociological system approach is functional and deterministic, whereas an innovation style approach refers to patterns of behaviour. To understand the style of innovation better a four-fold taxonomy of knowledge is proposed: knowledge about facts, knowledge about principles and laws of nature, the skills and capability to do something, and knowledge about who knows how to do what. The mix of these four knowledge factors will characterize the style of innovation.     

The dynamic of innovation networks: a switching model on technological change

In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model where heterogeneous firms compare and modify their innovation strategies, so generating an evolving network structure. By implementing dynamic behavioral switching via a fitness mechanism based on agents’ performance, companies can endogenously modify their tactics for technological change and switch among three groups: stand-alone innovators, collaborative innovators and imitators. On the one hand, we study the properties of the emerging networks and we show that they reproduce the stylized facts of innovation networks. Moreover, we focus the analysis on the impact of these three innovation categories on the macro economic aggregate, finding that collaborative companies are those having the highest positive impact on the economic system. On the other hand, we use the model to study the effect of different economic innovation policies in increasing macroeconomic performance.     

Legacy sectors: barriers to global innovation in agriculture and energy

The US national innovation system has a dual structure: part suited to rapid innovation, and part stubbornly resistant to change. The complex, established ‘Legacy sectors’ that resist change, particularly disruptive innovation, share common features that obstruct the market launch of innovations, over and above the ‘valley of death’ and other obstacles that have been the traditional focus of innovation policy. Innovations in Legacy sectors must penetrate a well-established and well-defended technological/economic/political/social paradigm that favours existing technology, characterised by (1) ‘perverse’ subsidies and price structures that create a mismatch between the incentives of producers and broader social goals, such as environmental sustainability, public health and safety, and geopolitical security; (2) established infrastructure and institutional architecture that imposes regulatory hurdles or other disadvantages to new entrants (3) market imperfections beyond those faced by other innovations: network economies, lumpiness, economies of scale, split incentives, needs for collective action, and transaction costs (4) politically powerful vested interests, reinforced by public support, that defend the paradigm and resist innovations that threaten their business models (5) public habits and expectations attuned to existing technology and (6) an established knowledge and human resources structure adapted to its needs. Beyond these obstacles, more socially desirable technologies that are driven by environmental or other non-market considerations must overcome the lack of agreed replacement standards against which putative alternatives can be judged. We have developed a new, integrative analytic framework for categorising the obstacles to market launch faced by Legacy sectors, and earlier applied this method to energy, health delivery, the long-distance electric grid, building, and air transport. In energy especially, the requirement for innovation is sufficiently urgent that large-scale domestic and collaborative international research should take place even at the cost of possible competitive disadvantage and even if it is some time before the USA adopts carbon charges and thereby puts pressure on the prevailing paradigm of fossil fuel use. We now extend this method to sustainable agriculture. American paradigms in agriculture and in energy are exported worldwide, delaying the development and spread of needed innovations that are not consistent with them. Foreign manufacturers wishing to enter US markets must suit their products in these sectors to American paradigms, while American exports of technology may be insufficiently cost conscious or respectful of environmental sustainability. Developing countries are technology takers and suffer from asymmetric innovative capability. They need to choose sources of technology best suited to their situation. India and China constitute new competitive threats, but also represent ‘innovative developing countries’ that have large domestic markets in which they are launching innovations aimed at their lower income populations.     

技术创新扩散动力机制及测度研究

本文基于技术创新扩散传播和驱动的双重视角下研究技术创新扩散的动力机制。首先,围绕创新主体和创新客体基于技术创新扩散方式的视角提出了技术创新扩散传播机制,并应用Bass模型对其传播机制进行测度;围绕创新主体、创新客体和创新中介基于技术创新扩散驱动要素的视角提出了技术创新扩散的驱动机制,并应用空间计量模型对其驱动机制进行测度。其次,运用2001-2018年中国五类城市(288个地级以上城市)的ICT数据对其创新扩散传播机制和驱动机制进行实证分析。结果表明：Bass模型能够有效测度五类城市ICT创新扩散的传播机制,且五类城市之间存在显著差异;面板数据固定效应动态SAR模型能够更全面测度五类城市ICT创新扩散驱动机制,时间、空间和时空滞后效应驱动显著,同时从宏观、中观和微观等视角测度并分析了对五类城市的驱动效果,得出一系列有价值的研究结论。     

How technology policy facilitates technology diffusion and improves firm capability: a dynamic survey from a network perspective

Strategic alliances have been regarded as a potent tool of technology policy for the advancement of research and development (R&D) in developing countries. However, the effectiveness of this ‘visible hand’ has not been dynamically understood as a useful means of building up firm capability. To see how strategic alliances help small-sized firms improve their competitive advantage, this research investigates a government-supported strategic alliance for technology development. Using a two-stage model from the network perspective and methodology, the results show that via a government-sponsored strategic alliance, the network factors embedded in the alliance significantly help the firm develop a competitive advantage by facilitating technology diffusion among alliance members and improved firm-level technology capability. Thus, technology policy in the form of strategic alliances appears to serve as a ‘visible hand’ that homogenously upgrades firm technology capability and diffuses technology.     

Demographic processes in a model of innovation diffusion with dynamic market

In this paper we study a binomial innovation diffusion model for a variable size market by modelling the demographic process of entrance-exit from each market compartment. We examine from a theoretical point of view the effect of the simultaneous presence of economic and demographic parameters under the exponential market growth hypothesis, by presenting some general results on the adoptions and sales time path. We also enlighten the relevance of considering these variables in relative terms and show how, in presence of a dynamic, the diffusion process never saturates the market. Finally, we test our model on a data set for cellular phones market in different countries.     

On the mechanism of international technology diffusion for energy technological progress

As a needed methodological complement to the existing large-scale complex policy modelling for energy technology diffusion, this paper contributes to an analytical exposition of the fundamental mechanism of international technology diffusion (ITD) for energy technological progress. We offer two different and complementary perspectives to explore the dynamics of energy technology diffusion and progress. We first develop a Solow-type efficiency-improving model of energy technological progress which is described by improvements in primary energy-augmenting efficiency. We further provide a Romer-type variety-expanding model of energy technological progress which is represented by the expansion of differentiated varieties of primary energy technology blueprints. Analysis based on two different models reaches consistent results: there are potential forces in the world economy – working through ITD – that pull individual countries to advance energy technology, ensuring a cross-country convergence in the growth rates of energy technology in the balanced growth path. While ITD plays a role in a cross-country convergence in technological growth rates, cross-country differences in the efficiency of undertaking indigenous research and the capacity of absorbing foreign technology spillovers would lead to a cross-country divergence in the absolute levels of energy technology.     

Patterns in UK company innovation styles: New evidence from the CBI innovation trends survey

This paper reports on the results of an analysis at Centre for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC) of the data from the 1996 and 1997 Survey of Innovation Trends conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) in conjunction with the NatWest Bank in the UK. This is one of the few, direct surveys of innovation activity, as opposed to R&D and patenting actvity, which is conducted in the UK It is characterized by the fact that it asks responding firms to report on trends in a wide variety of aspects of their innovative behaviour. The central feature of the analysis in this paper is a factor analysis of the answers to a set of 15 questions on different aspects of innovative behaviour. This results in a three-factor solution which reveals three distinct ‘styles’ of innovation in the behaviour of respondents. These three styles are shown to be broadly applicable to both manufacturing industry firms and service industry firms in the sample, thus revealing a dimension of innovation in the service sector which is not so readily disclosed by analysis of R&D or patent statistics. Statistical modelling of the constraints and incentives influencing innovation shows that while constraints do not appear to be very significant, competitive pressure and the utilization of collaborative linkages are strongly positively associated with innovation, and especially with a more radical s o b of innovation. Ihe paper concludes that the CBI survey provides data about innovation in the UK which are not easily provided through other means. Its format allows certain aspects of innovation—particularly the similarities and differences between manufacturing and services —to be examined in an interesting way.     

Patterns in UK company innovation styles: New evidence from the CBI innovation trends survey

This paper reports on the results of an analysis at Centre for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC) of the data from the 1996 and 1997 Survey of Innovation Trends conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) in conjunction with the NatWest Bank in the UK. This is one of the few, direct surveys of innovation activity, as opposed to R&D and patenting actvity, which is conducted in the UK It is characterized by the fact that it asks responding firms to report on trends in a wide variety of aspects of their innovative behaviour. The central feature of the analysis in this paper is a factor analysis of the answers to a set of 15 questions on different aspects of innovative behaviour. This results in a three-factor solution which reveals three distinct 'styles' of innovation in the behaviour of respondents. These three styles are shown to be broadly applicable to both manufacturing industry firms and service industry firms in the sample, thus revealing a dimension of innovation in the service sector which is not so readily disclosed by analysis of R&D or patent statistics. Statistical modelling of the constraints and incentives influencing innovation shows that while constraints do not appear to be very significant, competitive pressure and the utilization of collaborative linkages are strongly positively associated with innovation, and especially with a more radical s o b of innovation. Ihe paper concludes that the CBI survey provides data about innovation in the UK which are not easily provided through other means. Its format allows certain aspects of innovation—particularly the similarities and differences between manufacturing and services —to be examined in an interesting way.     

Patterns of innovation diffusion and technological competition in Portuguese manufacturing and service industries

This article uses data from the Portuguese Community Innovation Survey (CIS III) to analyse the inter‐industry heterogeneity in the diffusion of innovations and level of technological competition in Portuguese manufacturing and service industries. The industries are classified with reference to the relationship between the level of participation in innovation and the strategies of innovative firms. Methods of multivariate statistics are used to synthesize the data and to group the observations into subsets. Four distinctive innovation patterns are identified, defined along the following dimensions: output‐orientation of innovation, importance of disembodied innovation, role of technologically advanced innovation and level of innovation opportunities. It is also found that high levels of technological competition tend to occur in sectors with relatively low dimension, productivity and overall investment.     

Identification of effective opinion leaders in the diffusion of technological innovation: A social network approach

Opinion leaders are the people in a social network who have the greatest influence on other people's acknowledgment or adoption of products/services in the diffusion process of technological innovation. In this research, we investigate which opinion leader is the best marketing choice in terms of diffusion speed and maximum cumulative number of adopters, using a social network approach and threshold model. On the basis of the simulation result, we find that opinion leaders with high sociality are the best ones for fast diffusion, whereas those with high distance centrality are the best ones for the maximum cumulative number of adopters. Moreover, we conclude that the characteristics of effective opinion leaders selected as initial adopters could vary depending on the characteristics of the social network and type of innovation. Finally, we find that opinion leaders affect the diffusion process only when the percentage of initial adopters reaches a critical mass.     

Managing technological and social uncertainties of innovation: The evolution of Brazilian energy and agriculture

This paper explores how technological, commercial and social uncertainties shaped the development of Brazilian biofuels. Technological innovation allowed the country to emerge as a global leader, but Brazil continues to struggle with major social uncertainties due to poverty and environmental concerns common in many emerging economies. Contemporary approaches to development within the innovation literature focus primarily on overcoming technological and commercial uncertainties, but only peripherally explore social uncertainties. To fill this void, we draw on Martin and Hall's framework for managing innovative uncertainties, which is based on Kuhn and Popper's approaches to the evolution and methodology of science, and extend it with Aldrich and Fiol's concept of cognitive versus socio-political legitimacy. Based on qualitative data collected in Brazil, we outline the evolution of automotive fuel ethanol and flex-fuel technology, the development of Brazilian soybean production, and castor for socially inclusive biodiesel production. We show how innovation solved some technological and commercial uncertainties and generated new opportunities, but also created additional social uncertainties that are now being addressed. Through this process, Brazil has acquired capabilities in alternative energy technologies and more sustainable agriculture, becoming an exemplar for other emerging economies. We conclude with implications for policy and industry.     

A regional perspective on the structural transformation of China's national innovation system since 1999

Observing the structural transformation of China's National Innovation System (NIS) since 1999 is useful for understanding the rapid economic growth experienced in China and for adjusting the development strategies of other late-industrializing countries. The following article uses the regional specialization coefficient (RSC) method to analyze the structural transformation of China's NIS from the perspective of eight large economic regions (8LERs) from 1999 to 2006. The NIS has achieved its initial objectives and two of the three major characteristics of China's NIS identified in Sun's (2002) [1] paper have changed since 1999: the funding structure — from a government- to an enterprise-centered model; and the performing structure — from a double-centered model divided into enterprises and research institutions, to one solely led by enterprise. The regional structures of China's innovation system conform to the macro structure on a national level, while regionally, a wide variety of changing models of RSC affect different locales. The Chinese central government remains the leading force in reforming its innovation system with “Chinese Characteristics”.     

Firm persistence in technological innovation: the relevance of organizational innovation

Organizational innovation favors technological innovation, but does it also influence persistence in technological innovation? This paper empirically investigates the pattern of technological innovation persistence and tests the potential impact of organizational innovation using firm-level data from three waves of French Community Innovation Surveys. The evidence indicates a positive effect of organizational innovation on persistence in technological innovation, according to the various measures of organizational innovation. Moreover, this impact is more significant for complex innovators, i.e. those who innovate in both products and processes. The results highlight the complexity of managing organizational practices with regard to the technological innovation of firms. They also add to understanding of the drivers of innovation persistence through the focus on an often forgotten dimension of innovation in a broader sense.     

Business model ambidexterity and technological innovation performance: evidence from China

By applying an ambidexterity perspective to the business model context, this study examines the effects of efficiency and novelty – two conflicting business model design themes – on technological innovation performance and the relationship between these themes as it relates to enhancing technological innovation performance. From an analysis of data on 173 Chinese manufacturing firms, it is found that both efficiency and novelty themes are positively related to technological innovation performance; the combined dimension (CD) of business model ambidexterity (the interaction between efficiency and novelty themes) is positively related to technological innovation performance; and the balance dimension (BD) of business model ambidexterity (the balance between efficiency and novelty themes) positively moderates the relationship between CD and technological innovation performance.     

Modeling technological innovation risks of an entrepreneurial team using system dynamics: An agent-based perspective

Continuous technological innovation has been playing a vital role in ensuring the survival and development of an enterprise in today's economy. This paper studies the problem of technological innovation risk-based decision-making from an entrepreneurial team point of view. We identify the differences between this team decision-making and a traditional individual decision-making problem, where decisions are mainly affected by the decision-maker's risk and value perceptions, and risk preferences. We create a modeling framework for such a new problem, and use system dynamics theory to model it from the agent-based modeling perspective. The proposed approach is validated by a case study of the technological innovation risk decision-making in a Chinese automobile company.     

The patterns of induced diffusion: Evidence from the international diffusion of wind energy

Recent years have seen growing academic interest in the concept of induced diffusion as efforts to address concerns about energy security and climate change have intensified. Research on induced diffusion explores whether policy tools or interventions can incentivise the diffusion of innovations. This body of literature has explored the effectiveness and efficiency of various policy interventions and as such has been mainly concerned with the determinants of diffusion. This paper is, by way of contrast, concerned with the patterns of diffusion when diffusion is induced. Drawing on the Bass and Davies models of innovation diffusion we develop a number of propositions that suggest that the patterns of diffusion are different when policy plays a role in the diffusion process. These propositions are then econometrically tested in the context of the international diffusion of wind energy in 25 OECD countries. We find that, as predicted, without effective and strong policy interventions, countries will have conventional logistic diffusion with very similar speeds of diffusion. However, as expected the patterns of diffusion take on a different functional form (Bass curve) when there is a strong policy inducement. We conclude by discussing the implications and limitations of these results and suggesting avenues for further research.