Myopic loss aversion,reference point,and money illusion

We use the portfolio selection model presented in He and Zhou [Manage. Sci., 2011, 57, 315–331] and the NYSE equity and US treasury bond returns for the period 1926–1990 to revisit Benartzi and Thaler’s myopic loss aversion theory. Through an extensive empirical study, we find that in addition to the agent’s loss aversion and evaluation period, his reference point also has a significant effect on optimal asset allocation. We demonstrate that the agent’s optimal allocation to equities is consistent with market observation when he has reasonable values of degree of loss aversion, evaluation period and reference point. We also find that the optimal allocation to equities is sensitive to these parameters. We then examine the implications of money illusion for asset allocation. Finally, we extend the model to a dynamic setting.     

Myopic loss aversion and margin of safety: the risk of value investing

Abstract

Most modern financial markets use a continuous double auction mechanism to store and match orders and facilitate trading. In this paper we develop a microscopic dynamical statistical model for the continuous double auction under the assumption of IID random order flow, and analyse it using simulation, dimensional analysis, and theoretical tools based on mean field approximations. The model makes testable predictions for basic properties of markets, such as price volatility, the depth of stored supply and demand versus price, the bid–ask spread, the price impact function, and the time and probability of filling orders. These predictions are based on properties of order flow and the limit order book, such as share volume of market and limit orders, cancellations, typical order size, and tick size. Because these quantities can all be measured directly there are no free parameters. We show that the order size, which can be cast as a non-dimensional granularity parameter, is in most cases a more significant determinant of market behaviour than tick size. We also provide an explanation for the observed highly concave nature of the price impact function. On a broader level, this work suggests how stochastic models based on zero intelligence agents may be useful to probe the structure of market institutions. Like the model of perfect rationality, a stochastic zero intelligence model can be used to make strong predictions based on a compact set of assumptions, even if these assumptions are not fully believable.     

Do the diversification choices of individual investors influence stock returns?

This paper shows that the diversification choices of individual investors influence stock returns. A zero-cost portfolio that takes a long (short) position in stocks with the least (most) diversified individual investor clientele generates an annual, risk-adjusted return of 5–9%. This spread reflects the combined effects of sentiment-induced mispricing, narrow risk framing, and asymmetric information, where the sentiment effect is the strongest. Furthermore, the influence on returns is stronger among smaller, low institutionally owned, and hard-to-arbitrage stocks. These results are robust to concerns about relatively short sample size, improper factor model specification, slow information diffusion, and high transactions costs.     

w-MPS risk aversion and the shadow CAPM: theory and empirical evidence

This paper presents the shadow capital asset pricing model (CAPM) of Ma [2011a. Advanced Asset Pricing Theory. London: Imperial College Press] as an intertemporal equilibrium asset pricing model, and tests it empirically. In contrast to the classical CAPM – a single-factor model based on a strong behavioral or distributional assumption – the shadow CAPM can be represented as a two-factor model, and only requires a modest behavioral assumption of weak form mean-preserving spread risk aversion. The empirical tests provide support in favor of the shadow CAPM over the classical CAPM, the consumption CAPM, or the Epstein and Zin [1991. “Substitution, Risk Aversion and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis”. Journal of Political Economy 99, 263–286] model. Moreover, the shadow CAPM provides a consistent explanation for the cross-sectional variations of expected returns on the stocks and for the time-varying equity premium.     

Common stock repurchases and market signalling: An empirical study

This paper examines the pricing behavior of securities of firms which repurchase their own shares. The results are consistent with a market in which investors price securities such that expected arbitrage profits are precluded. The results are also consistent with the hypothesis that firms offer premia for their own shares mainly in order to signal positive information, and that the market uses the premium, the target fraction and the fraction of insider holdings as signals in order to price securities around the announcement date. The observation that repurchases via tender offer are followed by abnormal increases in earnings per share and that mainly small firms engage in repurchase tender offers, provides further support for the signalling hypothesis.     

The effectiveness of the VaR-based portfolio insurance strategy: An empirical analysis

This paper proposes an approach to constructing the insured portfolios under the VaR-based portfolio insurance strategy (VBPI) and provides a comprehensive analysis of its hedging effectiveness in comparison with the buy-and-hold (B&H) as well as the constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) strategies in the context of the Chinese market. The results show that both of the insurance strategies are able to limit the downward returns while retaining certain upside returns, and their capabilities of reshaping the return distributions increase as the guarantee or the confidence level rises. In general, the VBPI strategy tends to outperform the CPPI strategy in terms of both the degree of downside protection and the return performance.     

Loan loss provision decisions: An empirical analysis of the Spanish depository institutions

Accountants and financial economists have long held concerns that inefficient loan loss accounting may have a material impact on reported capital and earnings, especially in the banking industry. Prior research has examined banks’ incentives to manipulate loan loss provisions (LLPs) and the resulting impact. However, most of this research has focused on management incentives and other determinants of LLP decisions without addressing the relevant factors associated with best-practiced or efficient LLP decision-making. In this paper, we identify a stochastic frontier model that examines the “efficiency” of the LLP decisions of bank managers. Further we explore the relationship between efficient LLP decision-making and relevant factors that could potentially explain any inefficiency. Our evidence indicates that there is considerable inefficiency in loan loss decision-making among the sample institutions. The research is based on data from the Spanish banking industry, which is particularly relevant in light of the recent deregulatory initiatives in Spain. The findings in this study with regard to the existence of inefficiency in loan loss decisions and the causes of such inefficiency have far-reaching implications for regulators throughout Europe.     

Socially responsible investing and stock performance: New empirical evidence for the US and European stock markets

This paper empirically examines the theoretically ambivalent relationship between socially responsible investing (SRI) and stock performance. It contributes to the existing literature by considering both the US and the entire European stock markets and by using consistent world-wide corporate sustainability performance data. Our portfolio analysis from 1998 to 2009 is based on the common four-factor model according to Carhart (1997), which comprises market return, size, value, and momentum factors. We show for the US and the European stock markets that SRI is associated with large-sized firms. The insignificant abnormal stock returns for SRI in both regions are the main result of our paper. Therefore, our study supports the view that SRI stocks are correctly priced by market participants, although we cannot rule out that a corresponding mispricing has existed before the beginning of our observation period in 1998.     

Institutional investors and corporate environmental costs: The roles of investment horizon and investor origin

Using an international data set that quantifies corporate environmental costs, we analyze the influence of institutional investor ownership, particularly investment horizon and investor origin, on the monetized environmental impact generated by their investee firms. Institutional investor ownership is negatively related to corporate environmental costs. This effect is driven by long-term foreign institutional investors, especially investors from advanced economies. Corporate environmental costs are negatively correlated with firm valuation and positively correlated with the cost of equity. Since corporate environmental costs are not reflected in environmental, social and governance ratings, our results shed new light on the role of institutional investors in shaping corporate environmental impact.     

Currency devaluation and stock market response: An empirical analysis

We study local stock market reaction to currency devaluation by a country's central bank. Devaluations appear to be anticipated by the local stock markets, and there are significant negative abnormal returns even one year prior to the announcement of the devaluation. A negative trend in stock returns persists for up to one quarter following the first announcement, and then becomes positive thereafter, suggesting a reversal. We explore whether changes in macroeconomic variables prior to currency devaluations are related to abnormal stock returns. We find that stock returns are significantly lower if the devaluation is larger and if the country is a developing nation. Furthermore, stock markets decline more around devaluations if reserves are lower, if the real exchange rate has depreciated over the prior years, if the capital account has declined, if the current account deficit has gone up, or if the country credit rating has deteriorated.     

Relative risk aversion once more: An analysis of Japanese households' financial asset holding pattern

It is widely accepted that as the total assets increse, households tend to diversify their portfolios. In other words, absolute risk aversion is decreasing. On the other hand, the proportion of risky assets may increase or decrease depending on whether relative risk aversion (RRA) is decreasing or increasing, and its direction is still left open as an empirical question. This study examines the constancy of RRA from Japanese individual households' financial asset holding data collected in 1984. Constant RRA implies that the proportion of risky assets in one's portfolio is constant regardless of the amount of total assets. A casual observation of household portfolio holding pattern suggests that this implication is clearly violated by the data, because there are substantial proportion of households which do not hold any risky assets. Zero-holding, however, may be interpreted as a result of fixed transaction cost incurred by individual investors when they hold risky assets. Then, we pose a question, ‘Do investors hold constant proportion of risky assets, when they decide to hold them?’ In order to explain a substantial number of zero risky asset holders in the sample, we propose a portfolio selection model with a transaction cost, and estimate the model using a variant of Heckman's two-step method. In estimation we control for individual investors' socioeconomic characteristics, as well as income and total assets. The construction of the model imposes nonlinear restrictions on the two estimators, from which we can test the specification of the model. The estimation results suggest that there is a statistically significant decreasing tendency linked to total assets but that its rate of change tapers off as total assets increase. Our results are consistent with the previous studies which tended to support constant RRA for the higher asset holders, and complement previous studies in explaining lower asset holders' investment behavior.     

The Japanese stock market and the macroeconomy: An empirical investigation

We investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables, such as the industrial production index, interest rate and inflation rate, and the stock market, using Toda and Yamamoto (1995)'s vector autoregressions (VAR) specification. The major findings are: (1) macroeconomic variables do Granger cause the stock market variable, while reverse is not so clear. (2) The lagged stock market variable affects its current value but its impact tend to diminish in the long-run. Policy implication we draw is that the price keeping operation by the Japanese government would not work, but appropriate macroeconomic policies would benefit not only the real market but also the stock market.     

An empirical study of the value-relevance of using proportionate consolidation accounting for investments in joint ventures

This research examines bond risk premiums to determine whether creditors of companies with investments in joint ventures reflect legal or implicit measures of the debts of joint ventures. The legal view suggests that the amount of potential loss from an investment in a joint venture is limited to the investment. The implicit view suggests that the operations of the joint venture and the venturer are interdependent. Equity method accounting reflects the legal view and proportionate consolidation reflects the implicit view.The study examines whether bond risk premiums are more highly associated with accounting numbers from proportionate consolidation than equity method accounting. The study uses data from 10Ks, the Wall Street Journal, and Moody's Bond Record from May 1, 1995 through April 30, 1998. These 4 years are used because US interest rates were fairly stable during this period, which is an important factor when examining bond risk premiums. Additionally, the companies in the study needed to remain stable across the window of study – no mergers, acquisitions, buy-outs, or liquidations – in order to maintain a comparative sample over the entire time period. The risk premium model uses measures of default that change between equity method accounting and proportionate consolidation. Differences in the explanatory power of the model determine how creditors view the joint venture debts.The study shows that approximately half of equity investments represent investments in joint ventures. Furthermore, the average joint venture uses debt to finance about two-thirds of the assets. The results show that proportionate consolidation fails to improve the explanatory power of the model when examining the entire set of companies that invest in joint ventures. However, the data reject the null hypothesis of no improvement with proportionate consolidation when examining companies who guarantee the debt of their joint venture. The policy implication of this study indicates that a change to proportionate consolidation would provide more value-relevant information to creditors when companies guarantee the debt of the joint venture.     

Allocation of shares to foreign and domestic investors: Firm and ownership characteristics in Swedish IPOs

In this article, we analyze underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) and holdings following offerings in Sweden. By exploiting a unique hand-collected data set with information on the ultimate holdings by institutional and individual investors, as well as boards of directors, we find, as most prior studies, that IPOs on average are underpriced. IPOs with low (high) initial return have higher (lower) holdings by individual investors. Institutional investors are, to a greater extent than individual investors, also able to identify underpriced firms.     

Sampling distribution of the relative risk aversion estimator: Theory and applications

Brown and Gibbons (1985) developed a theory of relative risk aversion estimation in terms of average market rates of return and the variance of market rates of return. However, the exact sampling distributions of the relative risk aversion estimators have not been derived. The main purpose of this paper is to derive the exact sampling distribution of an appropriate relative risk aversion estimator. First, we have derived theoretically the density of Brown and Gibbons' maximum likelihood estimator. It is shown that the centralt is not appropriate for testing the significance of estimated relative risk aversion distribution. Then we derived the minimum variance unbiased estimator by a linear transformation of the Brown and Gibbons' maximum likelihood estimator. The density function is neither a central nor a noncentralt distribution. The density function of this new distribution has been tabulated. There is an empirical example to illustrate the application of this new sampling distribution.     

Financial forecasts in the presence of asymmetric loss aversion, skewness and excess kurtosis

We present closed-form results for the out-of-sample forecasts under the joint presence of asymmetric loss and non-normality, extending the results of Granger [1969. Operations Research Quarterly 20, 199–207; 1999. Spanish Economic Review 1, 161–173] and Christoffersen and Diebold [1997. Econometric Theory 13, 808–817]. We consider the LinEx and Double LinEx loss functions and non-normal distributions in the form of the Gram–Charlier class. We show how the preference asymmetries interact with the distribution asymmetries to determine optimal forecasts which contain the optimal predictors under symmetry and normality as special cases. We also examine the implications of our results for the development of forecast rationality tests, extending the work of Batchelor and Peel [1998. Economics Letters 61, 49–54]. Our results are relevant for the design of efficient investment and risk management policies.     

Coexistence of disposition investors and momentum traders in stock markets: experimental evidence

Prior research documents that many investors disproportionately hold on to losing stocks while selling stocks which have gained in value. This systematic behavior is labeled as the “disposition effect”. The phenomenon can be explained by prospect theory's idea that subjects value gains and losses relative to a reference point like the purchase price (PP), and that they are risk-seeking in the domain of possible losses and risk-averse when a certain gain is obtainable. Our experiments were designed to test whether individual-level disposition effects attenuate or survive in a dynamic market setting. We analyze a series of 36 stock markets with 490 subjects. The majority of our investors demonstrate a strong preference for realizing winners (paper gains) rather than losers (paper losses). We adopt different reference points and compare the behavioral patterns across three main trading mechanisms, i.e. rules of price formation. The disposition effect is greatly reduced only within high-pressure mechanisms like a dealer market (DM) when the last price (LP) is assumed as a reference point, which is a more market driven (external) benchmark. If disposition investors use the PP as a reference point, which is a more mental-accounting driven (internal) benchmark, they die hard in all market settings. Interestingly, our markets do not collapse or become illiquid by disposition investors' reluctance to trade. A main reason for this is the coexistence of two or more groups of investors, e.g. momentum traders and disposition investors.     

An investigation of the benefits of portfolio investment in Central and Eastern European stock markets

This paper: (i) examines the potential benefits from diversifying into eight stock markets of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE); and (ii) quantifies the importance of country, industry and time factors in CEE equity returns. The findings suggest that substantial benefits exist from investing in CEE stock markets and that they accrue more from the geographical spread than from the industrial mix of the equities included in the portfolio. However, the returns earned by CEE equities vary dramatically over time. This variability may hamper the efforts of investors attempting to exploit the diversification “free lunch”.     

Decision making with Expected Shortfall and spectral risk measures: The problem of comparative risk aversion

We analyze spectral risk measures with respect to comparative risk aversion following Arrow (1965) and Pratt (1964) for deterministic wealth, and Ross (1981) for stochastic wealth. We argue that the Arrow–Pratt-concept per se well matches with economic intuition in standard financial decision problems, such as willingness to pay for insurance and simple portfolio problems. Different from the literature, we find that the widely-applied spectral Arrow–Pratt-measure is not a consistent measure of Arrow–Pratt-risk aversion. Instead, the difference between the antiderivatives of the corresponding risk spectra is valid. Within the framework of Ross, we show that the popular subclasses of Expected Shortfall, and exponential and power spectral risk measures cannot be completely ordered with respect to Ross-risk aversion. Thus, for all these subclasses, the concept of Ross-risk aversion is not generally compatible with Arrow–Pratt-risk aversion, but induces counter-intuitive comparative statics of its own. Compatibility can be achieved if asset returns are jointly normally distributed. The general lesson is that these restrictions have to be considered before spectral risk measures can be applied for the purpose of optimal decision making and regulatory issues.     

Overreaction to stock market news and misevaluation of stock prices by unsophisticated investors: Evidence from the option market

This paper examines investors' option activity on value and growth stocks before earnings announcements. The main finding is that unsophisticated investors enter option positions that load up on growth stocks relative to value stocks in the days leading up to earnings announcements. This occurs despite the fact that at earnings announcements value stocks outperform growth stocks by a wide margin. The paper's results provide evidence that unsophisticated option market investors (1) overreact to past news on underlying stocks and (2) mistakenly believe that mispriced stocks will move even further away from fundamentals at impending scheduled news releases.