Global market inefficiencies

Using point-in-time accounting data, we estimate monthly fair values of 25,000+ stocks from 36 countries. A trading strategy based on deviations from fair value earns significant risk-adjusted returns (“alpha”) in most regions, especially Asia-Pacific, that are unrelated to known anomalies. The strategy's 40–70 basis point per month alpha difference between emerging and developed markets contrast with prior research findings. A country's pre-transaction cost alpha is positively related to its trading costs, but exceeds country-specific institutional trading costs. Thus, global equity markets are inefficient, particularly in countries with quantifiable market frictions, like trading costs, that deter arbitrageurs.     

The CDS‐bond basis

We investigate the cross‐sectional variation in the credit default swap (CDS)‐bond bases and test explanations for the violation of the arbitrage relation between cash bond and CDS contract, which states that the basis should be zero in normal conditions. The evidence is consistent with “limits to arbitrage” theories in that deviations are larger for bonds with higher frictions as measured by trading liquidity, funding cost, counterparty risk, and collateral quality. Surprisingly, we find the basis to be more negative when bond lending fee is higher suggesting that arbitrageurs are unwilling to engage in a negative basis trade when short interest on the bond is high.     

Consumption,asset wealth,equity premium,term spread,and flight to quality

We link transitory deviations of consumption from its equilibrium relationship with aggregate wealth and labor income to equity returns on the one hand, and to two characteristics of bond investors—the premium demanded to hold long‐term assets, and “flight to quality” behavior—on the other hand. Using a panel of 10 euro area countries over the period 1984Q1–2017Q4, we show that a rise in the consumption–wealth ratio predicts both higher equity returns and the future term spread, while a fall in the consumption–wealth ratio explains a large fraction of the rise in the spread between the “risky” and the “safe‐haven” bond.     

The role of two frictions in geographic price dispersion: When market friction meets nominal rigidity

This paper empirically investigates and theoretically derives the implications of two frictions, market friction and nominal rigidity, on the dynamic properties of intra-national relative prices, with an emphasis on the interaction of the two frictions. By analyzing a panel of retail prices of 45 products for 48 U.S. cities over the period 1985–2009, we make two major arguments. First, the effect of each type of friction on the dynamics of intercity price gaps is quite different. While market frictions arising from physical distance and transportation costs have a positive impact on volatility and persistence of intercity price dispersion, nominal rigidities have a positive impact on persistence but a negative impact on volatility. This empirical evidence is different from what is predicted by standard theoretical cross-country models based on price stickiness. Second, complementarities exist between market frictions and nominal rigidities such that the marginal effect of a market friction dwindles as nominal rigidities increase. We provide an alternative theoretical explanation for this finding by extending the state-dependent pricing (SDP) model of Dotsey et al. (1999) and show that our two-city model with nominal rigidity and market frictions can successfully explain the salient features of the dynamic behavior of intercity price differences that have not been captured in previous analysis.     

Stock‐Split Post‐Announcement Returns: Underreaction or Market Friction?

We explore the relationship between stock splits and subsequent long‐term returns during the period from 1950 to 2000. We find that, contrary to much previous research, firms do not exhibit positive long‐term post‐split returns. Instead, we find that significant positive returns after the announcement date do not persist after the actual date of the stock split. We also observe that abnormal returns are correlated with the price‐delay or market friction. We conclude that the stock‐split post‐announcement “drift” is only of short duration, and it is attributable to trading frictions rather than behavioral biases.     

Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model

The basic inability of standard theoretical models to generate a sufficiently large and variable nominal bond risk premium has been termed the “bond premium puzzle.” We show that the term premium on long-term bonds in the canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used in macroeconomics is far too small and stable relative to the data. We find that introducing long-memory habits in consumption as well as labor market frictions can help fit the term premium, but only by seriously distorting the DSGE model's ability to fit other macroeconomic variables, such as the real wage; therefore, the bond premium puzzle remains.     

企业金融化与劳动收入份额变动

本文从企业金融化的角度解释了上市公司劳动收入份额的变动,虽然基准结果显示,企业金融化能够促进劳动收入份额提升,但基于欧拉方程分解和中介变量法的验证发现,企业金融化一方面对工资水平产生正向溢出并提升了劳动收入份额,即表现出“盈利溢出”效应;另一方面,企业金融化却会抑制企业劳动生产率的改进,客观上造成劳动要素在生产中的地位上升进而带来劳动收入份额的提升,即表现出“技术抑制”效应。进一步分析发现,高管的劳动收入份额获益幅度小于普通员工(私营企业中更明显),说明经典的“委托-代理”框架并不能有效地解释中国企业的金融化行为;与此同时,企业金融化的影响和金融市场收益率具有强相关性,表明企业金融化的动力来自金融市场的收益激励。本文研究结论表明,企业金融化是企业在金融市场超额收益时期的“理性选择”,伴随金融市场回归并运行在合理区间,企业金融化对劳动收入份额的提升作用不仅不可持续,而且会对劳动生产率产生持续损害,借助趋利性的企业金融化来获得劳动收入份额的提升无异于“饮鸩止渴”。本文的研究结论可为我国进一步深化金融体系供给侧结构性改革,引导金融回归本源,更好地服务于实体经济提供有益参考。     

Is Beta Dead or Alive?

The debate about whether beta is dead or alive has heated up once again. We believe the empirical work supporting either side of the argument is limited because market frictions are not adequately addressed. This study clarifies the controversy about the issue by creating a new moving-average beta and analyzing two market anomalies: the turn-of-the-year and the Monday effects. What is discovered in this research is (1) that a fundamental source of the problem underlying the two types of market anomalies is the persistence of market frictions that retard the arbitrage process; (2) that beta is seriously ill if the effects of market frictions are ignored; and (3) that beta is alive and well if the effects of market frictions are accommodated. Also, we show, by using an optimal lead/lag structure, the moving-average beta provides significantly higher explanatory power for the turn-of the-year and the Monday effects than betas created from ordinary least squares regression and Scholes-Williams and Fama-French methods because the moving-average beta accommodates the effects of market frictions into the body of beta itself. This new type of beta, a moving-average beta, is demonstrated to be robust.     

Is Beta Dead or Alive?

The debate about whether beta is dead or alive has heated up once again. We believe the empirical work supporting either side of the argument is limited because market frictions are not adequately addressed. This study clarifies the controversy about the issue by creating a new moving-average beta and analyzing two market anomalies: the turn-of-the-year and the Monday effects. What is discovered in this research is (1) that a fundamental source of the problem underlying the two types of market anomalies is the persistence of market frictions that retard the arbitrage process; (2) that beta is seriously ill if the effects of market frictions are ignored; and (3) that beta is alive and well if the effects of market frictions are accommodated. Also, we show, by using an optimal lead/lag structure, the moving-average beta provides significantly higher explanatory power for the turn-of the-year and the Monday effects than betas created from ordinary least squares regression and Scholes-Williams and Fama-French methods because the moving-average beta accommodates the effects of market frictions into the body of beta itself. This new type of beta, a moving-average beta, is demonstrated to be robust.     

Real exchange rates and time-varying trade costs

This paper re-examines the empirical modeling of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) deviations in the presence of commodity market frictions. First, we show that a specific type of smooth transition models can closely approximate the functional form of the theoretical adjustment mechanism derived by Dumas (1992) [Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World, Review of Financial Studies,5:2153-180] for the case of constant as well as changing trade costs. Second, we develop, for the first time, an empirical model of the real exchange rate which allows for changes in the degree of market integration. By employing a long span of data on the Dollar-Sterling real exchange rate and a micro-founded proxy for trade frictions, we provide novel evidence of a significant relationship between the persistence of the real exchange rate and the level of trade costs. This finding suggests that both the difficulty of detecting PPP and the extend of Rogoff’s puzzle vary over time with the degree of trade restrictiveness. Finally, we highlight policy repercussions of our results.     

市场摩擦对特质风险溢价的影响效应——基于A股主板市场的实证分析

与国外发达市场相比,我国A股主板市场的市场摩擦因素对市场微观结构和资产定价的影响更大。在防范和化解系统性风险的过程中,进一步分析市场摩擦如何作用于特质风险定价效应的问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文通过采用多维市场摩擦指标来代理信息不对称、交易成本、买卖限制、卖空限制、风险对冲和外部冲击,检验中国股市特质风险和预期收益率的关系,并判断出市场摩擦因素间的差异性影响机制。回归发现,市场摩擦和特质风险因子(特质波动率和特质偏度)都具有定价效应。各维度市场摩擦因素降低了股票流动性,进而增强了特质波动率的负向定价效应,部分解释了“特质波动率之谜”,但市场摩擦对特质偏度因子溢价的影响较为微弱。同时,基于特质波动率和特质偏度因子的投资策略能够产生超越CAPM、三因子和五因子模型的绝对收益,并印证了市场摩擦对特质风险因子绝对收益的影响作用。     

Housing “Beta”: Common Risk Factor in Returns of Stocks

This study proposes the housing “beta” and tests whether the housing “beta” is a significant determinant for stock returns in a multifactor framework. We hypothesize that the housing market is a systematic risk factor given the impact of the housing market on the overall economy and economic growth of most countries, as well as the effect of homes in the overall wealth of individual investors. The housing market directly affect GDP growth through residential fixed investment and housing services. In addition, the housing market indirectly impacts economic activities via consumption. Our results show that the housing “beta” is positive and significant in explaining stock returns after controlling several other factors from the prior literature. This relationship is stronger, as expected, during the financial crisis period. We conducted several robustness checks using a different study period and housing market indices and obtain results which are consistent with our main findings.

     

Earnings Volatility,Post–Earnings Announcement Drift,and Trading Frictions

We find that lower ex ante earnings volatility leads to higher Post–Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD). PEAD is a function of both the magnitude of an earnings surprise and its persistence. While prior research has largely investigated market reactions to the magnitude of the earnings surprise, in this study we show that the persistence of the earnings surprise is equally important. A unique feature of the anomalous PEAD returns documented here concerns the association between abnormal returns and trading frictions. Besides demonstrating that firms with lower earnings volatility have higher abnormal returns, we also find that lower earnings volatility firms have lower trading frictions. Taken together, these findings imply that higher abnormal returns are associated with lower trading frictions. We exploit this implication to empirically demonstrate that PEAD returns due to earnings volatility are not concentrated in the firms with the largest trading frictions, which is in contrast to the findings in prior anomaly studies.     

基于上证50ETF期权的“定价核之谜”研究

基于上证50E T F和上证50E TF期权数据,本文经验研究了中国市场是否存在“定价核之谜”,并对“定价核之谜”与市场走势之间的关系进行了探讨。实证结果显示,中国市场存在“定价核之谜”,且“定价核之谜”与下期市场收益率呈显著负向关系、与下期市场振幅呈显著正向关系。本文首次给出了“定价核之谜”在中国金融市场存在的经验证据,并且证实了“定价核之谜”对下期市场走势具有一定的预测作用。     

Banks' consumer lending reaction to fintech and bigtech credit emergence in the context of soft versus hard credit information processing

Access to credit information and the ability to process this information effectively determine the conditions of competition in the credit market. Traditionally, local banks have had an advantage in relationship lending (based on soft credit information), whereas foreign banks are considered to base on hard credit information. With the advent of financial technology (or “fintech”) companies (or “fintechs”) and giant technology (or “bigtech”) companies (or “bigtechs”) providing alternative credit, the conditions of competition in the credit market have changed. In this empirical study, we shed light on the nature of the information advantages fintech and bigtech companies have compared to banks and how alternative lenders use them. We analyze competition in the consumer lending segment between banks and fintechs as well as bigtechs providing alternative lending. We used a database combining bank-level characteristics and country-level proxies for 72 countries from 2013 to 2018. We find that in developed markets, the relationships between fintech and bigtech credit providers and banks are similar and competitive in nature. However, banks' consumer lending grows simultaneously with fintech credit market development in emerging economies, but decreases in the aftermath of the emergence of bigtech credit. Fintech credit seems to penetrate market segments not serviced by banks; thus, it plays a complementary role, however only in emerging economies. Bigtech companies compete even more with banks and push some banking offers out of the market, both in emerging and developed economies. Furthermore, we show that domestic and privately-owned banks are more negatively affected by competition from technology-based lending, particularly bigtech, than foreign banks. Thus, bigtech lending may be treated as a serious competition for banks' relationship lending based on soft credit information processing, traditionally provisioned by local banks.     

Capital Market Regimes and Bank Structure in Europe

We hypothesize that fundamental features that distinguish European capital markets have predictably influenced emerging national differences in bank capitalization and loan growth. Using bank‐level data from 13 European countries, 1998 to 2004, we find evidence of positive effects of “equity‐friendly” market features on bank capitalization and positive effects of both “equity‐friendly” and “credit‐friendly” market features on loan growth. The findings are strongest in small banks and in banks with cooperative charters. Our results suggest that ongoing and prospective integration of European banking markets is mitigated by relatively static features of the equity and credit markets on which banks rely.     

“好”的不确定性、“坏”的不确定性与股票市场定价——基于中国股市高频数据分析

不确定性并不是都是“坏”的,“好”的不确定性也同样存在。本文采用Barndorff-Nielsen et al.(2010)提出的已实现半方差作为股票市场“好”的不确定性和“坏”的不确定性的代理指标,并在此基础上构建了相对符号变差(RSV),分析RSV对中国股市定价的影响。基于2007-2017年中国A股5分钟高频数据的实证研究发现:(1)与理论解释相一致,RSV与股票收益之间呈现负相关关系。无论是基于单变量分组、双变量分组还是公司层面的截面回归,这种影响在经济上和统计上都显著。(2)RSV是独立于已实现偏度的一个重要定价因子,且RSV对股票的定价能力强于已实现偏度的定价能力。(3)RSV对中国股市的影响是状态依存的,相对于经济景气程度高的状态,在经济景气程度低的状态下RSV定价影响更大。(4)基于RSV构建的投资组合的表现明显优于市场超额收益率组合、SMB组合和HML组合的表现。     

Political institutions,stock market liquidity and firm dividend policy: Some international evidence

In this cross-country study, we draw on the dividend liquidity hypothesis and the political economy literature to examine whether political institutions affect the relationship between stock market liquidity and a firm’s dividend policy. In countries with weak political institutions, we expect that investors are less able to demand higher dividends for stocks with low liquidity. Using a sample of 52 countries, we show that the negative association between stock market liquidity and dividends is more pronounced in countries with sound political institutions, consistent with the “outcome” model of dividends. These results are stronger in countries with better legal institutions and weaker for firms with financial constraints.     

信任被定价了吗？ ——来自债券市场的证据

仅依赖法律等正式制度无法确保金融或经济的长期发展,信任等非正式制度在其中的作用不可或缺。鉴于此,本文研究信任这一非正式制度在债券市场中的价值。研究发现,信任不仅有助于提高债券信用评级,还有助于降低债券信用利差。同时,利用最高法“失信被执行人”数据还发现,失信及失信程度的增加会降低债券信用评级,提高债券信用利差。此外,本文还利用路径分析法发现,信任不仅会直接影响债券评级和定价,还会通过提升公司财务报告质量间接地发挥作用,即不仅投资者主观上更愿相信高信任度地区的企业,客观上这些企业也的确更为可信。进一步地,信任对债券评级和定价的积极作用在国有企业、金融业更发达地区的企业以及发债次数更多的企业中更为显著,即投资者与发行人之间的重复博弈机会越多,信任的价值也越大。本文研究结论提醒政府在推动企业融资成本下降时,应着重加强对信任这种地区乃至国家公共品的培育和建设。     

Macroeconomic dynamics in a model of goods,labor, and credit market frictions

Goods market frictions drastically change the dynamics of the labor market, both in terms of persistence and volatility. In a model with three imperfect markets – goods, labor, and credit – we find that credit and goods market imperfections are substitutable in raising volatility. Goods market frictions are unique in generating persistence. Two key mechanisms in the goods market generate large hump-shaped responses to productivity shocks: countercyclical goods market tightness and prices alter future profit flows and raise persistence; procyclical search effort of consumers and firms raises amplification. Goods market frictions are thus key in understanding labor market dynamics.