居民用电的需求模型构建及节能效果研究--基于广东省阶梯电价改革的实证分析

阶梯电价制度作为重要的节能政策手段,在全国范围内的推广实施已经超过两年。论文基于广东省2011-2013年21城市改革前后两年的面板数据,利用计量经济学的方法,构建居民用电的需求模型,对影响居民用电的可能因素：用电价格、家庭收入、人口数量以及地区差异的显著性程度,相关性关系进行了拟合估计,得出如下研究结论及建议：地区变量对用电量的影响不显著,在广东省内珠三角与非珠三角地区设置不同阶梯电价标准的意义不大;价格对居民用电有显著的抑制作用,价格调节能起到节能效果;广东省的阶梯电价标准相当于对原统一电价每度提价0.07元,以2012年为例阶梯电价实施可节能约58亿千瓦时;收入因素、人口因素是导致居民用电增加的重要因素,二者成为居民用电的刚需性因素,其中,收入因素对用电量的影响可分解为收入预算在用电消费支出以及电器使用数量增加两个方面。     

我国汽车制造投资项目节能减排评价——以某汽车投资项目为例

为加强固定资产投资项目节能管理,促进科学合理利用能源,从源头上杜绝能源浪费,提高能源利用效率、降低碳排放.本文根据节能法规、标准,选择评价模型,以我国某汽车整车制造投资项目为例,评价该项目的能源科用是否科学合理,结果显示,该项目的单位产品年综合能耗为0.305吨标准煤;项目年综合节能量为4394.66吨标准煤;年综合节电量为550万千瓦时;节能率为12.01％;减少CO2排放量10986.65吨;与国内同行业单位产品能源消耗比较,该项目处于国内同行业较好水平,但仍有拓展空间;最后本文提出具体的节能减排措施.     

Long- and short-run elasticities of residential electricity consumption in China: a partial adjustment model with panel data

While it has stabilized in developed world, the per capita residential electricity consumption (REC) in developing countries such as China is growing very rapidly and this trend is very likely to continue. Built upon a provincial level panel data, we employ a partial adjustment model to investigate the future trend of REC in China and factors that affect it. We estimate the income and price short-term and long-term elasticities for urban and rural China, respectively and compare the results with REC studies in other countries or regions. The findings provide useful information to understand how the REC would grow in China as household income increases and how effective that price could be as an intervention tool.     

星级酒店推行节能新举措探析

新时期降低能耗发展绿色经济已经成为全国上下的共识，面对日益激烈的市场竞争星级酒店出台节能举措也是势在必行。本文正是从这一大背景出发阐述了星级酒店推行节能措施的重要意义，同时结合西湖大酒店的实际详细论述了适合酒店开展节能活动的相关措施，旨在为酒店行业节能行动提供粗浅思路。     

Time-saving innovations, time allocation, and energy use: Evidence from Canadian households

Time and energy are major inputs into the production of household goods and services. As a result, the market penetration of time-saving technologies for general household use is expected to affect both a household's (i) allocation of time across home production and leisure activities; and (ii) energy use. For example, with a household's adoption of a microwave or a dishwasher, cooking food and washing dishes will require less time, and therefore in-home meal preparation may increase. Households with microwaves or dishwashers may also opt to spend more time undertaking other production activities, inside or outside the home, or engage in more leisure (watching TV, reading, exercising). To the extent that time is reallocated from less to more energy-intensive activities in the home, residential energy use will increase as households adopt appliances that embody time-saving technology. Furthermore, an adoption of time-saving technologies for basic household chores, such as meal preparation and laundry, can impact energy use due to the fact that many time-saving technologies are more energy intensive than alternative technologies that require larger time commitments. In this paper, we use the Canadian Survey of Household Energy Use data from 2003 to examine the extent to which ownership of products that embody time-saving innovations affects time allocation and energy use at the household level.     

温度驱动、经济增长与居民生活能源消费

在1阶段Becker-Grossman模型的基础上,引入日平均降雨量、人均总产出和地域虚拟变量,分析水旱灾害、温度、经济增长和地域差别因素对我国居民能源消费的影响。采用2004年~2011年30个省域数据建立面板模型,研究发现:(1)各省居民基础生活能源消费存在的明显的个体差异,欠发达地区和高海拔地区的生活能源消费基数较高;(2)我国居民能源消费形式已不同于上世纪90年代之前的灾害驱动型,而达到了与发达国家相似的温度驱动型时期,能源消费量与温度关系曲线呈U型,且温度调节的成本差异导致曲线左右不对称;(3)经济增长效应大于温度驱动效应,是近年来我国居民生活能源增加的主要原因,收入能源消费弹性系数仅为0.39,未来能源消费还会进一步增加。最后本文对模型进行了6种形式的扩展,发现模型具有良好的稳健性。     

能源利用效率的区际比较及对策分析

本文对我国能源利用效率的现实状况及其影响因素进行历史纵向分析和地区层面的横向比较,发现：能源消费结构调整、产业结构是能源消耗强度的重要影响因素;我国的能源利用效率与美日等发达国家,巴西、墨西哥等发展中国家相比都存在较大差距,改进和提高能源利用效率已成为我国的当务之急;国内能源利用效率较高的省份主要是北京、上海和广东,与其经济发展水平、能源消费结构密切相关。因此,我国应提高优质能源消费比重,推动产业结构的优化升级以优化能源消费结构;推动对外贸易结构的转变,提升我国在全球价值链分工中的地位,通过技术进步提高我国的能源利用效率和降低环境污染强度;制定有区别的区域节能目标和政策措施,既要考虑一般性影响因素,也要考虑本地区特殊影响因素,促进地区经济、能源和环境社会的协调发展。     

Energy prices, energy conservation, and economic growth: Evidence from the postwar United States

The effects of energy prices and energy conservation on economic growth have been examined empirically for the postwar U.S. economy. A vector autoregressive model includes real GDP, real capital, labor, real energy prices, and the Divisia energy index. A key feature of our finding is that some damaging effects of energy conservation on the macroeconomy are statistically insignificant in the short run, and the insignificant short-run effects are quickly enervated over time. Alternative measures of energy use also suggest that energy conservation has no significant impact on real output growth. The findings are generally consistent with the neoclassical position that real economic growth of the United States is neutral with respect to changes in energy use. One exception is the case that energy prices are omitted from the model.     

我国石化企业绿色竞争力的评价研究--以某石化企业为例

文章根据石化行业的特点,从生态环保、节能减排、盈利、持续发展四个维度构建了我国石化企业绿色竞争力的评价指标体系和评价模型,并以某石化企业为例进行了实证性研究。结果显示：案例企业绿色竞争能力从2005年到2013年总体上呈现出增强的趋势,年均增长率为5.8%;但这四个因素的影响作用有较大差距,生态环保能力最大为42.16%,其次是节能减排能力为29.32%,盈利能力与发展能力影响作用相对较小,分别为17.31%与11.20%。最后为有效提升石化企业的绿色竞争力,文章提出了四个方面的政策建议：一是需要着力提升持续发展的能力;二是需要着力扭转盈利能力的下降趋势;三是需要进一步提高节能降耗能力;四是需要进一步提高技术创新能力的投入。     

General equilibrium impact of an energy-saving policy in the public sector

We analyse a disregarded environmental policy instrument: a switch in government expenditure away from energy (or other natural resources) and toward a composite good which includes energy-saving expenditure. We first develop two variants of an analytical general equilibrium model. A composite good is produced with constant returns to scale, and energy is imported or produced domestically with diminishing returns, yielding a differential rent to its owners. The government purchases energy and composite goods from private firms. Such a policy unambiguously increases employment. It also raises private consumption and welfare under two conditions: (i) it is not too costly and (ii) the initial share of the resource is smaller in public spending than in private consumption, or the difference is small enough. We then run numerically a model featuring both importation and domestic production of energy (oil, gas and electricity), for the OECD as a whole. Simulations show that employment, welfare and private consumption rise. We provide magnitudes for different parameter values. Earlier versions of this paper have benefited from conference participants at the European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, International Society for Ecological Economics World Congress, CIRED seminar and EUREQua environmental economics seminar. We especially thank Michèle Sadoun and two anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Socio-ecological regime transitions in Austria and the United Kingdom

We employ the concepts of socio-ecological regime and regime transition to better understand the biophysical causes and consequences of industrialization. For two case studies, the United Kingdom and Austria we describe two steps in a major transition from an agrarian to an industrial socio-ecological regime and the resulting consequences for energy use, land use and labour organization. In a first step, the coal based industrial regime co-existed with an agricultural sector remaining within the bounds of the old regime. In a second step, the oil/electricity based industrial regime, agriculture was integrated into the new pattern and the socio-ecological transition had been completed. Industrialization offers an answer to the input and growth related sustainability problems of the agrarian regime but creates new sustainability problems of a larger scale. While today's industrial societies are stabilizing their resource use albeit at an unsustainable level large parts of the global society are in midst of the old industrial transition. This poses severe problems for global sustainability.     

Preferences for change: Do individuals prefer voluntary actions, soft regulations, or hard regulations to decrease fossil fuel consumption?

Pittsburgh residents (n = 209) reported their preferences for voluntary actions, soft regulations, and hard regulations to (a) limit the number of SUVs and trucks and (b) increase green energy use for household energy consumption. These two goals were presented in one of two motivating frames, as addressing either environmental or national security issues. For the goal of limiting SUVs and trucks, results indicated that participants favored voluntary actions over hard regulations, and soft regulations over voluntary actions. For the goal of increasing green energy, results indicated that participants preferred both voluntary actions and soft regulations over hard regulations, but had no significant preference between voluntary actions and soft regulations. How the problems were framed did not significantly affect participants' willingness to accept voluntary actions or regulations. Participants' environmental attitudes (as assessed using the New Ecological Paradigm scale) had a strong positive relationship with support for regulatory strategies intended to change the behaviors in question. Women were more likely to support voluntary actions than men. The loss of personal freedom was frequently mentioned as a reason for saying no to hard regulations.     

能源经济与政策研究中的数据问题

近年来,能源经济与政策研究文献大幅增长,其中绝大多数属于经验研究或政策模拟分析,所使用的基础数据大多来源于政府部门或者国际组织发布的宏观统计资料或者在线数据库。目前有的研究存在较多基础数据问题,从而可能导致结论出现偏误。为厘清各统计量之间的逻辑关系、减少数据滥用或者误用的可能性、增强研究过程的透明度和研究结果的可比性,本文从经济学和国民经济核算等视角讨论了能源经济与政策研究中的数据问题。在开展能源经济研究时,需要明确界定系统的边界,明晰输入量和输出量,传统的发电煤耗法等线性加总方法可能会导致研究结论出现偏误,应用Divisia能源加总方法要更为精准。不同的数据源口径往往不同,来自统计部门的能源数据与经济数据可能并不完全匹配,国内外能源数据口径及其核算方法也存在较大差异。如果不注意这些差异,直接进行数据大小比较是不可取的,甚至可能会导致一些没有科学意义的争议。     

The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany

This paper estimates the impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Since old people display different consumption patterns than young people, an increase in the proportion of old people affects overall consumption patterns. Micro data from a household survey are used to identify age-specific consumption patterns and to project the impact of demographic change on the structure of total consumption expenditure up to the year 2030. The resulting final demand vectors are entered into an environmental input-output model, which allows the calculation of sectoral production, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The model results suggest that until 2030, demographic change raises the share of methane in total greenhouse gas emissions and does not contribute to reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. The model is also used to explore the effects of redistributing income between age groups and a policy-induced switch from motor vehicle use to public transport.     

山西省应对气候变化的对策研究

气候变化问题是当今21世纪对人类最大的考验。山西省要紧紧抓住国家资源型经济转型综合配套改革试验区的政策机遇,提升应对气候变化的综合竞争力。本文首先阐述了世界各国在应对气候变化方面所做的实践及中国的态度和努力,然后分析了全球气候变化对山西带来的影响和挑战,提出了山西省应对气候变化的主要任务,在此基础上,围绕“十二五”期间,山西省单位 GDP 能耗降低16%,单位 GDP 二氧化碳排放降低17%的减排目标,从健全管理体系,加强组织领导;完善法规政策,强化制度保障;加强监督考核,落实发展目标;创新科技体系,提高研发能力;建立应对体系,提高民众意识;扩展对外合作,发展山西经济等六个方面提出了应对气候变化的对策建议。     

Convergence of the world’s energy use

This paper uses the sequential panel selection method to examine the convergence of the energy use of 107 countries. It contributes by analyzing the order of convergence and the factors affecting the difference in convergence using improved methods. We provide robust evidence to indicate that seven out of ten countries have been convergent during the period examined, and strong decoupling across countries does not exist. Additionally, high-income and upper-middle-income countries show convergence characteristics earlier than lower middle-income and low-income countries. This means that high-income and upper-middle-income countries are the first to achieve steady-state levels by adjusting their industrial structure and adopting new technologies, and energy exporters have dominant control over energy use. We find that energy-exporting countries converge before energy importers do. These results mean that the energy use of most countries is in accordance with the convergence theory. It also shows that GDP per capita, industrialization level and latitude have great impacts on convergence, especially for industrialization. Our research provides a reference for countries around the world to adjust their energy use policies and to realize a rational flow of energy resources.     

Decreasing energy use in buildings by 50% by 2050 — A backcasting study using stakeholder groups

This paper describes a backcasting study focusing on fulfilment of a national target to decrease energy consumption in residential and commercial buildings by 50% by 2050 compared with the consumption in 1995, and identifying possible measures for achieving it. A method based on a combination of backcasting methodology and focus group methodology was used. Two different scenarios were developed. They were used in discussions with stakeholders in the building sector, to explore and identify measures and actors important for target fulfillment. The main outcomes were ideas for strategies and measures needed to achieve the target. The current potential for target fulfilment was also analysed and discussed. The discussions in the different stakeholder groups were mainly concerned with changes in attitude and behaviour and the need for radical changes in social structures. For example, enhanced communication between actors in the building chain, and the need for relevant feedback in order to illustrate the link between the effort in decreasing energy use and actual outcome. The findings suggest that there is sufficient technical potential to achieve the target by 2050 but that this potential will not be realised to a sufficient extent. Achieving the target would be facilitated by policy that is oriented more towards identifying actors with direct influence to promote change. An analysis of incentives for these actors to act, and how different actors can cooperate for energy-efficient solutions should be integrated into the process of suggesting and implementing policy measures.