中国对非洲直接投资与贸易的关系研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

文章从理论上回顾了对外直接投资的贸易效应,以非洲33个国家为样本,运用2002～2006年的数据,建立了中国对非洲直接投资与贸易之间关系的面板数据(Panel Data)模型,并进行了实证分析.研究发现,我国对非洲国家直接投资与贸易存在着互补效应;我国对非洲直接投资尚处于起步阶段,进一步拓展非洲市场有利于创造中非合作双赢局面.     

Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries

The paper examines the long run and causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that the stock market development is cointegrated with economic growth in Egypt and South Africa. Moreover, this test suggests that stock market development has a significant positive long run impact on economic growth. Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM) further shows that stock market development Granger causes economic growth in Egypt and South Africa. However, Granger causality in the context of VAR shows evidence of bidirectional relationship between stock market development and economic growth for Cote D’Ivoire, Kenya, Morocco and Zimbabwe. In Nigeria, there is a weak evidence of growth-led finance using market size as indicator of stock market development. Based on these results, the paper argues that stock markets could help promote growth in Africa. However, to achieve this goal, African stock markets need to be further developed through appropriate regulatory and macroeconomic policies.     

Inflation and west African sectoral stock price indices: An asymmetric kernel method analysis

Our work puts into perspective the relationship between inflation and West African sectoral indices between November 2001 and January 2020 using the asymmetric kernel method. The sectoral indices considered for the analysis include retail, finance, industry, utilities, agriculture, transportation, and other sectors. Our work reveals that while all sectors are sensitive to inflation, the utilities and agriculture sectors are more sensitive to changes in inflation. Moreover, we discover that the relationship between inflation and sectoral stock market indices is rather non-linear to support the hypothesis that the relationship between inflation and stock market indices varies across different inflationary economies. These results imply that investors modify the structure of their investment portfolio according to the variation in the levels of inflation to the extent that this variation ultimately affects future dividends.     

Business Regulations and Private Domestic Investment in Africa

In this article, the author seeks to complement the perception-based studies by utilizing the objective measures from the Doing Business project to analyze the relationship between business regulations and private domestic investment in Africa. He reports evidence that reforms in business regulations affecting contract enforcement, tax administration, firm entry, labor markets, and the private sector as a whole positively affect private domestic investment in Africa. These findings are important for assisting policy makers in creating a business regulatory environment that promotes domestic private investment and thereby encourages economic growth in Africa.     

Effect of financial development on international trade in Africa: Does measure of finance matter?

Although improving international trade on the back of financial sector development is one of the preoccupations of countries in Africa, empirical literature on financial development-trade nexus has not been rigorous in examining how finance shapes trade. In this study, we examine the effect of financial development on international trade in Africa relying on data for 46 countries over the period 1980–2015. Results from our system generalized method of moments reveal differential effects of finance on trade. In particular, we notice that, private credit does not promote trade while domestic credit positively affects trade. These effects are robust to measures of trade. Thus, improving the level of private (domestic) credit dampens (amplifies) exports and trade openness. However, we also find a U-shaped relationship between private credit and trade measures suggesting that financial sector development may be detrimental (helpful) to trade for economies with low (high) level of private credit.     

Housing wealth effect in emerging economies

In this paper I estimate the impact of changes in real and financial wealth on private consumption for a panel of 17 emerging economies from Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. Households' consumption, income and the two measures of real and financial wealth – proxied by house and stock market prices – are found to be difference-stationary and co-integrated; by means of recent econometric techniques for heterogeneous panels, i.e. the pooled mean group estimator, inference is drawn about the long- and short-run relationships between the variables of interest. The main result of the analysis shows that both real and financial wealth positively affect households' consumption in the long-run, with the elasticity of housing wealth being larger than that of stock market wealth. Moreover, there is also a significant short-run adjustment from income, stock prices and house prices on consumption, i.e. consumption adjusts to its long-run relationship with lags. When the model is run for the two groups of countries separately, the long-run impact of an increase (decrease) in house prices is generally higher in Central and Eastern European economies with respect to Asian ones, which make them more vulnerable to further adverse housing market developments.     

Does foreign direct investment promote institutional development in Africa?

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Africa have increased since the turn of the millennium, mainly due to FDI growth into African countries by multinational enterprises (MNEs) from developing economies. While African governments view this growth as a positive development for the continent, many governments in the West have raised concerns regarding the institutional impact of investments from developing economies. This paper examines the impact of FDI flows on institutional quality in African countries by distinguishing investments from developed versus developing economies. Previous empirical studies have found a significant relationship between FDI flows and institutional quality in African countries but regard the relationship as MNEs rewarding African countries for adopting institutional reforms. However, little attention has been paid to the reverse causality, i.e. that FDI can cause an institutional change in African countries. Using bilateral greenfield FDI flows between 56 countries during 2003?2015, we find no significant FDI effect from developed and developing economies on institutional quality in host countries. However, aggregate FDI flows from developed and developing economies have a significant positive effect on host country institutional quality but differ concerning the impact's timing. In contrast, we find no significant effect of FDI flows from China on host country institutional quality. Our results are robust to alternative measures of institutional quality.     

African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment

The author dissects, with great acuteness, the issues of convergence in financial performance dynamics in the African continent through the lenses of stock market capitalization, value traded, turnover, and number of listed companies. The empirical evidence is premised on 11 homogeneous panels based on regions (Sub-Saharan and North Africa), income levels (low, middle, lower-middle, and upper-middle), legal origins (English common law and French civil law), and religious dominations (Christianity and Islam). Findings provide partial support for the existence of absolute convergence in some dynamics. Only Sub-Saharan Africa reveals conditional convergence in relation to per capita number of listed companies. The speed of convergence for the most part is between 12% and 28% per annum. As a policy implication, countries should work toward adopting common institutional and structural characteristics that favor stock market development.     

Chinese cross‐border mergers and acquisitions in the developing world: Is Africa unique?

China has emerged as an important partner for Africa. Not surprisingly, Chinese business and investment relations with Africa have been growing. This article contends that Africa offers a different proposition to Chinese business interests in non‐African developing economies. In this optic, it takes a “comparative” institution‐based view treating factors that determine Chinese multinationals' cross‐border merger and acquisition (CBMA) decisions as comparatively different for Africa to the rest of the developing world. From a panel data estimation of the number of Chinese CBMAs from 2007 to 2016, we find among market size, natural resources, strategic assets, labor productivity, and institutional governance, only natural resources and market size have a distinctive effect, with Chinese investors being more attracted to African natural resources than the African market. The drive for natural resources provides impetus for Chinese MNEs to choose CBMAs over greenfield investment, and through majority ownership to exercise control. Our inference is that Africa is “significantly” different from other developing regions, in terms of CBMAs, as Chinese multinationals have a strong motive to control access to natural resources.     

FDI and Financial Market Development in Africa

The literature on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), financial market development (FMD) and economic growth focuses mainly on two aspects: the relationship between FDI and economic growth, and the role played by FMD in that linkage. The literature is almost silent on the relationship and the direction of causality between FDI and FMD. Although it has been established that FDI contributes more to growth in countries with a more developed financial market, it is not clear how FDI and FMD interact with each other. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap in the African context. Particularly, in Africa, where stock markets experience low liquidity and less transparency, FDI can be an impetus for financial market reforms and serve as a mechanism to improve the transparency and the depth of the financial markets. Also, well‐functioning financial markets can help channel foreign investments more efficiently into productive sectors, and therefore create more value for investors, hence making the countries more attractive to FDI. In short, both FDI and FMD will impact each other simultaneously, which is confirmed by our findings. We document a bidirectional causality between FDI and FMD. Furthermore, the multivariate regression results of the system of simultaneous equations also confirm the positive relationship between FDI and FMD in Africa. We also find that FDI contributes to economic growth in Africa after controlling for endogeneity between FDI, FMD and economic growth.     

African Women in the Entrepreneurial Landscape: Reconsidering the Formal and Informal Sectors

Informal and formal sectors can be seen as “dual economies” of African countries. This article discusses the entrepreneurial landscape in Africa considering both sectors, as well as the continuum from small to large within each. It queries whether there can be mobility within and between sectors and whether upward movement, as seen elsewhere, is possible for most African entrepreneurs. The landscape displays the range of women entrepreneurs from traditional microenterprises to large informal-sector traders, from small- to large-scale formal-sector companies, as well as emerging globalists (the “new generation of African entrepreneurs”). Paradigms compare and contrast these entrepreneurs in terms of demographic variables, types of typical enterprises and companies, product sources and markets, start-up capital, networks and associations, and mobility within and between the sectors. Findings show the informal?formal distinction is useful to disentangle the landscape, but that movement between informal sector categories is not substantial because of the entry requirements of education, capital, business networks, etc. Similarly, within the formal sector of small to large businesses, limited access to capital, networks, market niches, and product innovation hinders upward mobility for most. The new generation of African entrepreneurs form an endpoint of the continuum because their global business methods, networks, financial transparency, and business ethics propel them to success. Hence, while most African women entrepreneurs are lower on the scale, there is a growing cadre of women at the top who provide role models of achievement within their countries.     

Liquidity and macroeconomic management in emerging markets

Emerging markets have received considerable attention for foreign investment and international diversification due to the possibility of higher earnings and a low level of integration with global equity markets. These high returns often need to be balanced by the high liquidity costs of trading in illiquid emerging markets. Several studies have shown that central bank and government policies are significant determinants of market liquidity. We investigate the influence of monetary and fiscal policy variables on the market and firm level liquidity of eight emerging stock markets of Asia. Using four different (il)liquidity measures and nine macroeconomic variables, we find that changes in the money supply, government expenditure and private borrowing significantly affect stock market liquidity. Illiquidity is also strongly affected by the bank rate, short-term interest rate and government borrowing. We demonstrate that ‘crowding out’ and ‘cost of funds’ effects exist in these markets. Other major findings are that some markets are more sensitive to local macroeconomic news than world factors, the impact on size based portfolios largely depends on the instruments used by the central banks and government, the liquidity of the manufacturing sector is affected by changes in any policy variables, financial institutions are only influenced by monetary policy variables, and the service sector is least affected.     

Does mobile money use increase firms’ investment? Evidence from Enterprise Surveys in Kenya,Uganda, and Tanzania

Private investment can be an important engine of economic growth in East African countries that are plagued with adverse economic conditions, despite recent growth rates. Against this backdrop, there has been substantial penetration of mobile money, moving beyond simple person-to-person exchanges towards adoption by private firms. This study explores whether there is a relationship between firm adoption of mobile money and firm investment. Using firm-level data that are nationally representative of the private sector in three East African countries—Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda—a positive relationship is found between mobile money use and firm’s purchase of fixed assets. This relationship is attributed to reduced transaction costs, increased liquidity, and increased credit worthiness associated with the use of mobile phone financial services. The finding is largely driven by small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).     

Private Equity Finance as a Growth Engine: What It Means for Emerging Markets

Entrepreneurship has long been considered crucial for economic development. An important element of entrepreneurship is the willingness and ability to mobilize private capital from both domestic and foreign sources. The private equity sector in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) illustrates the role that private capital can play in the development of emerging markets. Data on the employment generation and growth performance of private equity provide evidence that it is an important driver of economic growth globally. This paper draws on initial evidence from the MENA region to illustrate the sector's potential there and in emerging markets generally. It then recommends a new generation of reforms to fuel this growth engine. A survey of MENA’s private equity industry survey conducted for this paper assesses these developments and the sector's need for proactive reforms to support it. It also shows that international financial market interest in private equity finance does not seem to have abated with the recent market bust. The paper concludes by identifying priority areas for future policy and research. JEL Classification O160     

Emerging Securities Exchanges in Africa

ABSTRACT

African securities markets have not received the academic attention of those in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Historically, capital markets have not played a significant role in financing the development of the African economy. Today, however, African governments are focusing on the importance of moving toward more market-oriented economies and developing the financial market infrastructure to mobilize funds from both the private and public sectors. This paper describes the institutional characteristics of a newly revitalized stock exchange in Nairobi, Kenya. The study concludes that historical and cultural factors play a significant role in the characteristics of the Nairobi Stock Exchange.     

Entering the last frontier: expansion by US multinationals to Africa

Literature on multinationalism, even that which focuses on economic development and incentives for foreign direct investment (FDI), largely ignores the African continent despite its market of over 700 million inhabitants and its unique challenges for foreign firms. However, the African continent provides an important arena for examining the effects of infrastructure, wealth, and political differentials across countries and the effects of these variables on the expansion decisions of US multinational corporations (MNCs). In this paper we examine the US stock market reaction to announcements of US firms entering African markets through both FDI and Non-FDI modes. Finally, we investigate the accounting performance implications of these expansions. Our results show that, on average, firms experience negative wealth effects when expanding to Africa. Further analysis shows that expansions to South Africa produce losses, while expansion to the rest of Africa produce positive gains. We also show that firms with higher return on equity perform better than firms with lower return on equity when they expand to Africa in countries other than South Africa.     

Determinants of corporate listings on stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ghana

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) economies have established stock markets to encourage the mobilization of domestic funds and attract foreign capital in-flows for corporate investment and growth. But domestic corporate listings on stock markets have been abysmal. This study examines the reasons behind the low patronage of stock markets by domestic firms in SSA using Ghana as a case study. Data for the study was obtained from 110 out of the 200 largest firms in Ghana and included firms which were listed on the stock market and unlisted firms over three time-periods from 2002 to 2009. The findings show that knowledge about stock market dynamics and financial institutions' support encourages listing on the stock market. However, extensive information and disclosure costs requirements, and loss of ownership and control discourage listing on the stock market.     

Internationalization strategies of emerging market banks: Challenges and opportunities

The greatly improved economic fundamentals of the major emerging economies over the last decade have propelled several emerging banks into the ranks of the world’s largest. Despite their importance in the global economy, the internationalization of emerging market banks remains an understudied phenomenon. This article examines factors that may influence the internationalization strategies of emerging market banks in the private banking sector, both when going abroad (take-off) and upon arrival in a host country (landing). The private banking sector is of significant interest given its importance in many leading financial centers around the world while undergoing major transformation due to the worldwide financial crisis, several recent scandals, and a fast-changing regulatory environment. We highlight the internationalization strategies of two banks from emerging countries, China and Brazil, and their experience in Switzerland’s traditional private banking sector. These two cases highlight factors that may influence successful internationalization such as prior industry experience, existing client base, entry strategy, ownership type, and the liability of foreignness. Our findings offer valuable implications for managers from other emerging economies by providing a better understanding of how emerging market banks expand internationally.     

我国股票市场功能的实证分析

本文认为,辩证、客观地认识我国股票市场并确定股票市场发展方向,对我国经济发展具有非常重要的意义。文章利用1987～2003年的数据对我国股票市场与经济增长的关系及我国股市功能进行实证分析。研究发现,境内外股票筹资率的上升对资源配置效率的改善和经济增长具有积极的作用;而由于市盈率过高和传导机制失灵,流通市价与GDP比率的上升对经济增长有明显的负作用。因此,证券市场发展规划既要大力促进境内外股票筹资率的上升,又要适当控制泡沫与过度投机,从而推进证券市场健康稳定发展。