Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence

While virtually all currency crisis models recognise that the decision to abandon a peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, this is seldom modelled explicitly. We add the threat of an interest rate defence to the global game model of Morris and Shin (American Economic Review 88, 1998). With an endogenous defence, actions of speculators may become strategic substitutes instead of the usual complements. Nevertheless, our generalised model remains tractable and has a unique threshold equilibrium. It provides additional insights. For instance, the threat of an interest rate defence makes speculation riskier and this may be sufficient to keep speculators out when fundamentals are still relatively strong.     

Who's afraid of a globalized world? Foreign Direct Investments, local knowledge and allocation of talents

We study the distributional effects of globalization within a model of heterogeneous agents where both managerial talent and knowledge of the local economic environment are required in order to become a successful entrepreneur. Agents willing to set up a firm abroad incur a learning cost that depends on how different the foreign and domestic entrepreneurial environments are. In this context, we show that globalization fosters FDI and raises wages, output and productivity. However, not everybody wins. The steady state relationship between globalization and income is U-shaped: high- and low-income agents are better off in a globalized world, while middle-income agents (domestic entrepreneurs) are worse off. Thus, consistently with recent empirical evidence, the model predicts globalization to increase inequality at the top of the income distribution while decreasing it at the bottom.     

The specific factors continuum model, with implications for globalization and income risk

This paper embeds the specific factors model in the goods continuum approach of Dornbusch et al. (1977, 1980) and applies it to analyze the effect of globalization on income risk. Globalization amplifies sector specific income risk induced by idiosyncratic sectoral technology shocks, but tends to reduce income risk to both mobile and immobile factors induced by aggregate technology shocks that differ by country. Aggregate risk bears most heavily on the poorest specific factors.     

Monetary autonomy in emerging market economies: The role of foreign reserves

This paper examines trends in monetary autonomy and their interactions with financial integration, currency regimes and foreign reserves for recent decades in emerging Asian and Latin American economies. Our main findings are the following: First, most emerging Asian economies have increased monetary autonomy mainly due to changes in currency regimes toward floating regimes, while emerging Latin American economies have shown mixed results on monetary autonomy. Second, in all sample economies, the accumulation of foreign reserves has contributed to retaining monetary autonomy, probably implying the role of foreign reserves as an anchor for monetary autonomy in emerging market economies.     

International real business cycles with endogenous markup variability

The aggregate impact of decisions made at the level of the individual firm has recently attracted a lot of attention in both the macro and trade literatures. We adapt the benchmark international real business cycle model to a game-theoretic environment to add a channel for the strategic interaction among domestic and foreign firms. We show how the sum of strategic pricing decisions made at the level of the individual firm can have significant effects on the volatility and cross country co-movement of GDP and its components. Specifically we show that the addition of this one channel for strategic interaction leads to a significant increase in the cross-country co-movement of production and investment, as well as a significant decrease in the volatility of investment and the trade balance over the benchmark IRBC model.     

Political cycles under external economic constraints: Evidence from Cyprus

This paper examines the presence of political cycles in a small open economy using data from Cyprus over the period 1978–2006, and explores their conditionality upon external economic constraints, such as globalization and European integration. Two basic results emerge. First, we find evidence of partisan shifts in economic policies and outcomes, although these effects seem to decrease as globalization progresses, and to disappear in the run-up to EMU. This implies that, while partisan cycles can emerge under a certain domestic political setting, the sensitivity of an economy to globalization pressures and the challenges resulting from EU/EMU membership can lead to their weakening. Second, we find evidence of electoral shifts in certain, more visible, subcomponents of the fiscal balance. However, in contrast to partisan distinctions, these opportunistic effects become more pronounced as globalization proceeds. It seems that constraints imposed on the ability of politicians to ingratiate themselves with partisans, may actually strengthen their incentives to engage in electioneering.     

Do interest groups affect US immigration policy?

While anecdotal evidence suggests that interest groups play a key role in shaping immigration policy, there is no systematic empirical analysis of this issue. In this paper, we construct an industry-level dataset for the United States, by combining information on the number of temporary work visas with data on lobbying activity associated with immigration. We find robust evidence that both pro- and anti-immigration interest groups play a statistically significant and economically relevant role in shaping migration policy across sectors. Barriers to migration are lower in sectors in which business interest groups incur larger lobbying expenditures and higher in sectors where labor unions are more important.     

Treasury Bond risk and return, the implications for the hedging of consumption and lessons for asset pricing

All consumption-based models of asset pricing imply that the relation between the conditional mean and conditional volatility of any asset reflects the effectiveness of holding that asset as a hedge against intertemporal variation in the marginal utility of consumption. For Treasury Bonds of various maturities, we find significant positive relations. Our empirical findings support the conclusion that investors must sell bonds short to hedge shocks to marginal utility, because realized bond returns tend to be high (low) when investors least (most) desire an additional dollar of consumption. Implications for special cases of the general consumption-based model are also discussed.     

A state-dependent model of intermediate goods pricing

Recent analyses of transaction-level data sets have generated new stylized facts on price setting and greatly influenced the empirical open- and closed-economy macroeconomics literatures. This work has uncovered marked heterogeneity in price stickiness, demonstrated that even non-zero price changes do not fully “pass through” exchange rate shocks, and offered evidence of synchronization in the timing of price changes. Further, intrafirm prices have been shown to differ from arm's length prices in each of these characteristics. This paper develops a state-dependent model of price setting by strategic intermediate goods producers that anticipate and respond to their competitors' actions. The model, which allows for both arm's length and intrafirm transactions, is able to generate all of these empirical pricing patterns.     

Information, incentives and multinational firms

I present a model that explains a multinational firm's choice of organizational form. If a firm in the developed country outsources the production of its intermediate goods to a supplier in the developing country, it faces an adverse selection problem. If it chooses to produce the intermediate goods in its own subsidiary in the developing country, it faces an inefficient monitoring problem. My analysis of this tradeoff provides a new explanation for the observation that FDI is concentrated in capital intensive industries and yields two empirical hypotheses: more firms should adopt outsourcing instead of FDI after trade liberalization; the share of intra-firm trade in total trade should be increasing in the degree of productivity dispersion across intermediate goods suppliers in the developing country.     

Gravity, trade integration, and heterogeneity across industries

We derive a micro-founded measure of bilateral trade integration that is consistent with a broad range of leading gravity models. This measure accounts for cross-industry heterogeneity by incorporating substitution elasticities estimated at the industry level. We then use it to provide a theory-based ranking of trade integration across manufacturing industries in European Union countries. In addition, we explore the determinants of trade integration, finding that substantial Technical Barriers to Trade in certain industries as well as high transportation costs associated with heavy-weight goods are the most notable trade barriers.     

Financial liberalization, structural change, and real exchange rate appreciations

The last twenty years have witnessed periods of sustained appreciations of the real exchange rate in emerging economies. The case of Mexico between 1988 and 2002 is representative of several episodes in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe in which countries opening to capital flows experienced large appreciations accompanied by a significant reallocation of workers towards the non-tradable sector. We account for these facts using a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with frictions to labor reallocation and two driving forces: (i) A decline in the cost of borrowing in foreign markets, and (ii) differential productivity growth across sectors. These two mechanisms account together for 60% of the decline in the domestic relative price of tradables in Mexico and for a large fraction of the observed reallocation of labor across sectors. The decline in the interest rate faced by Mexico in international markets is quantitatively the most important channel. Our results are robust to the inclusion of terms of trade into the model.     

Why do most countries set high tax rates on capital?

We consider tax competition in a world with tax bases exhibiting different degrees of mobility, modeled as mobile and immobile capital. An agreement among countries not to give preferential treatment to mobile capital results in an equilibrium where mobile capital is nevertheless taxed relatively lightly. In particular, one or two of the smallest countries, measured by their stocks of immobile capital, choose relatively low tax rates, thereby attracting mobile capital away from the other countries, which are then left to set revenue-maximizing taxes on their immobile capital. This conclusion holds regardless of whether countries choose their tax policies sequentially or simultaneously. In contrast, unrestricted competition for mobile capital results in the preferential treatment of mobile capital by all countries, without cross-country differences in the taxation of mobile capital. Nevertheless our main result is that the non-preferential regime generates larger expected global tax revenue, despite the sizable revenue loss from the emergence of low-tax countries. By extending the analysis to include cross-country differences in productivities, we are able to resurrect a case for preferential regimes, but only if the productivity differences are sufficiently large.     

Regional financial integration in the GCC

We investigate the extent of regional financial integration in the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Interest rate data show that convergence exists and that interest rate differentials are relatively short-lived—especially relative to other unified currency area and comparable to those of the Euro Area post 1999. Equity data using cross-listed stocks confirm that stock markets are fairly integrated compared to other emerging market regions, although price equalization is hampered by market illiquidity. The limited volume data available suggests that intra-GCC capital flows are sizeable.     

Does corporate governance risk at home affect investment choices abroad?

Disparity between control and ownership rights gives rise to the risk of tunneling by the controlling shareholder, and is prevalent in many emerging market economies and present in some developed countries. At the same time, international investors come from different countries whose home markets are characterized by varying degrees of control–ownership disparity. This paper studies whether this difference in investors' home countries affects their portfolio choice in an emerging market. It combines two unique data sets on ownership and control in business groups, and investor-stock level foreign investment in Korea. A key finding is that investors from low-disparity countries disfavor high-disparity stocks in Korea, but investors from high-disparity countries are indifferent. Moreover, investors from low-disparity countries became averse to disparity only after the Asian financial crisis. These results suggest that the nature of corporate governance in international investors' home countries affects their portfolio choice abroad, and therefore these investors should not be lumped together in the analyses of their portfolio choice.     

Escaping a protectionist rut: Policy mechanisms for trade reform in a democracy

This paper analyzes the dynamics of trade policy reform under democracy. In an overlapping generations model, heterogeneous agents may acquire skills when young thereby determining the skill composition of their cohort. Current and anticipated trade policies influence education decisions and thus voters' trade policy preferences. We show that there may exist two political steady states: one protectionist and one liberal. Transition from the former to the latter can be achieved by government announcements, temporary educational subsidies, or tariff liberalization by trading partners, but generally not by transfer payments to adversely affected workers. We find additionally that reform is politically feasible only if the proposed liberalization is sufficiently large, suggesting that radical reform may be necessary for escaping a protectionist political rut.     

Habit formation and fiscal transmission in open economies

In this paper we analyze the ability of an open economy version of the neoclassical model to account for the time-series evidence on fiscal policy transmission. Revisiting the evidence, we find that i) government spending raises output, while inducing a simultaneous decline of investment and the current account and ii) the responses of output and investment are more muted in more open economies while current account deficits tend to be larger. Turning to the model, we explore the role of habit formation for fiscal policy transmission. Specifically, we show that the model can account for the evidence if consumption behavior is characterized by habit formation and the terms of trade adjust endogenously.     

Transportation, freight rates, and economic geography

We investigate the role of competitive transport markets in shaping the location of economic activity and the pattern of trade. In our model, carriers supply transport services for shipping manufactured goods, and freight rates are set to clear transport markets. Each carrier must commit to the maximum capacity for a round-trip and thus faces a logistics problem as there are opportunity costs of returning empty. These costs increase the freight rates charged to firms located in regions that are net exporters of manufactured goods. Since demand for transport services depends on the spatial distribution of economic activity, the concentration of production in one region raises freight rates to serve foreign markets from there, thus working against specialization and the agglomeration of firms. Consequently, a more even spatial distribution of firms and production prevails at equilibrium when freight rates are endogenously determined than when they are assumed to be exogenous as in the literature.     

Exchange rate exposure: A nonparametric approach

The typical conclusion reached when researchers examine exchange rate exposure is that only a few firms are exposed. This finding is puzzling since institutional knowledge and theory suggests a larger effect. In this paper, we compare results obtained using a linear approach with those from nonlinear and nonparametric models. Among firms that don't have a linear exposure, we find that a considerable proportion of these are exposed when nonlinear or nonparametric models are used. This exposure is most striking when a nonparametric model is used. We also find that firms' hedging activities decrease linear exposure but don't affect nonparametric exposure.