The term structure of systematic and idiosyncratic risk

We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic, and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little indication of a time-varying term premium. Turning the focus to individual stocks, we cannot reject the expectations hypothesis for systematic variance, but we strongly reject it for idiosyncratic variance. Our results are robust to jumps and potential statistical biases.     

The Chinese interbank repo market: An analysis of term premiums

Because of the lack of short‐term government bonds, the interbank repo market in China has been providing the best information about market‐driven short‐term interest rates since its inception. This article examines the behavior of the repo rates of various terms and their term premiums. The work in this article supplements the study by F. Longstaff (2000), which reports supportive evidence for the pure expectations hypothesis over the short range of the term structure with the use of repo data from the United States. It is found that the pure expectations hypothesis is statistically rejected, although the term premiums are economically small. It is shown that the short‐term repo rate, repo rate volatility, repo market liquidity, and repo rate spreads are all important in determining the term premiums. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:153–167, 2006     

Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts

We evaluate the liquidity preference hypothesis (LPH) for the term structure of interest rates in a different way. Instead of using bond returns as traditional approaches, we use interest rate surveys with market expectations in order to evaluate LPH. This approach allows us to disentangle the effect of the changes in interest rate expectations from the liquidity premium. We found empirical support for the LPH with Brazilian data using both traditional and survey methods. However, the evaluation with interest rate surveys gives a higher statistical confidence level than the traditional approach when we perform tests for term premium monotonicity.     

Determinants of Japanese Yen interest rate swap spreads: Evidence from a smooth transition vector autoregressive model

This study investigates the determinants of variations in the yield spreads between Japanese yen interest rate swaps and Japan government bonds for a period from 1997 to 2005. A smooth transition vector autoregressive (STVAR) model and generalized impulse response functions are used to analyze the impact of various economic shocks on swap spreads. The volatility based on a GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) model of the government bond rate is identified as the transition variable that controls the smooth transition from a high volatility regime to a low volatility regime. The break point of the regime shift occurs around the end of the Japanese banking crisis. The impact of economic shocks on swap spreads varies across the maturity of swap spreads as well as regimes. Overall, swap spreads are more responsive to the economic shocks in the high volatility regime. Moreover, a volatility shock has profound effects on shorter maturity spreads, whereas the term structure shock plays an important role in impacting longer maturity spreads. Results of this study also show noticeable differences between the nonlinear and linear impulse response functions. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:82–107, 2008     

The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes,Mechanics and Outcomes

We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (i) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic fundamentals over 2001–09 to levels inconsistent with long‐term EMU participation; and (ii) a double shift in markets’ expectations, from a regime of credible commitment to future EMU participation under an implicit EMU/German guarantee of Greek fiscal liabilities, to a regime of non‐credible EMU commitment without fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. We argue that the risk of contagion to other periphery EMU countries is significant; and that without extensive structural reforms, the sustainability of the EMU is in question.     

Sources of variation in holding returns for fed funds futures contracts

This study relates predictable gains from positions in fed funds futures contracts to violations of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. Although evidence for predictable gains from positions in short‐horizon contracts is mixed, we find that gains in longer horizon contracts can be well described using Markov‐switching models, with predictability associated with particular episodes in which economic activity was weak and variability in the returns to these contracts was quite high. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:205–229, 2011     

Shifting economic regimes for retail in the Philippines: external impetus amidst the workings of domestic politics

In the prevailing globalized world order, economic regime shift is principally understood via the overriding-external-impetus lens where international demand holds sway over domestic policymaking. Considering the complexity of the process and the possibility of varying outcomes, the perspective evidently limits the function of domestic politics in changing regimes. In elucidating how the dynamics of domestic politics respond to external impetuses and play out in relation to regime shifts, this paper looks into the two cases of regime shifts in retail in the Philippines: Republic Act (RA) 1180, a protectionist regime enacted in 1954 and RA 8762, a liberalized regime legislated in 2000. The study examines the interface and convergence of three salient factors – external–internal impetus, presidential intervention, and the changing dynamics in the retail sector – that were pivotal in both regime shifts. Specifically, the external–internal impetus helped set off the move for regime shift; the sitting President played a crucial role in the success of the legislation in Congress, and the retail sector exemplified varying dynamics (e.g., consolidation in RA 1180 and fragmentation in RA 8762) which facilitated the enactment of the laws. The study also underscores two key points: (1) while the initiative to adopt or change economic regimes for a government will continue to have external impetus, the success of regime shift as well as the substance of its specific policy will be essentially determined by the workings of domestic politics and (2) the legislative experience characterizes the contemporary link between global influence and domestic dynamics in policy making. The paper closes with a note on the case study's implications for retail globalization in Southeast Asia.     

A monetary approach to measuring long-run inflationary expectations

In this paper, a model of long-term monetary equilibrium is used to construct an empirical model of long-run inflationary expectations. This model is estimated and used to construct out-of-sample estimates of long-run expected inflation. Comparisons of expectations measures from this model with those from commonly-used autoregressive models and with a model drawn from the term structure clearly favors the former.     

Regime switching and cointegration tests of the efficiency of futures markets

Many researchers have found that spot and futures prices are not cointegrated in some commodity markets, or they are cointegrated but not with a cointegrating vector (1, −1). One interpretation is that disturbances to excess returns have a unit root persistence, which implies that spot and futures prices do not move together one-for-one in the long run. To provide an alternative explanation for this finding, this article proposes a regime switching model of spot prices that can be viewed in the same framework as Fama and French (1988). Based on this model, Monte Carlo experiments are performed to show that tests for cointegration and estimates of the cointegrating vector are likely to be biased when a sample contains infrequent changes in regime. Taking these shifts into account, the null hypothesis that spot and futures prices are cointegrated and move together one-for-one in the long run can no longer be rejected. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:871–901, 1998     

Samuelson hypothesis,arbitrage activity,and futures term premiums

The Samuelson hypothesis asserts that futures volatility increases as maturity decreases. On the basis of 10 US commodity futures and by capturing the dynamics of the futures volatility terms structure with three factors, we show that in most markets the slope factor is strongly negative in certain periods and at best only weakly negative in other periods. High inventory levels are found to correspond to flatter volatility term structures in seven futures. This finding is consistent with the linkage between carry arbitrage and the Samuelson hypothesis. We also find that a flatter volatility term structure corresponds to lower absolute futures term premiums.     

An intertemporal capital asset pricing model under heterogeneous beliefs

An intertemporal CAMP under heterogeneous beliefs is derived. It is shown that an asset's risk consists of three components: the market consensus of volatility risk, the market consensus of the risk induced by changes in the investment opportunity set, and risk associated with uncertain shifts in investor's subjective expectations. The multiperiod market price of risk with heterogeneous beliefs defines a new structure of market risk that captures contemporaneous changes in investors' subjective expectations and the dynamics of the investment opportunity set. The investors' demand for risky assets also is examined under heterogeneous belief. In addition, the model derived provides a generalized version of other CAPM's, such as the classical CAPM, Merton's intertemporal CAPM, and Bredeen's consumption-based CAPM.     

Testing Forbearance Experimentally: Duopolistic Competition of Conglomerate Firms

Like Feinberg and Sherman (1985) and Phillips and Mason (1992), we test experimentally whether conglomerate firms, i.e. firms competing on multiple, structurally unrelated markets, effectively limit competition through forbearance. Unlike these authors, our more general analysis assumes differentiated rather than homogeneous products and distinguishes strategic substitutes as well as complements to test their forbearance hypothesis. We vary the duration of the interaction to disentangle effects of forbearance and repetition. Surprisingly, rather than limiting competition, conglomerate firms foster it. In line with our expectations, we find more cooperation with strategic complements than with strategic substitutes and also more cooperation with long term than with short term interaction.     

Black's Model of Interest Rates as Options, Eigenfunction Expansions and Japanese Interest Rates

Black's (1995) model of interest rates as options assumes that there is a shadow instantaneous interest rate that can become negative, while the nominal instantaneous interest rate is a positive part of the shadow rate due to the option to convert to currency. As a result of this currency option, all term rates are strictly positive. A similar model was independently discussed by Rogers (1995) . When the shadow rate is modeled as a diffusion, we interpret the zero-coupon bond as a Laplace transform of the area functional of the underlying shadow rate diffusion (evaluated at the unit value of the transform parameter). Using the method of eigenfunction expansions, we derive analytical solutions for zero-coupon bonds and bond options under the Vasicek and shifted CIR processes for the shadow rate. This class of models can be used to model low interest rate regimes. As an illustration, we calibrate the model with the Vasicek shadow rate to the Japanese Government Bond data and show that the model provides an excellent fit to the Japanese term structure. The current implied value of the instantaneous shadow rate in Japan is negative.     

Common risk factors in the U.S. and UK interest rate swap markets: Evidence from a nonlinear vector autoregression approach

This paper produces evidence in support of the existence of common risk factors in the U.S. and UK interest rate swap markets. Using a multivariate smooth transition autoregression (STVAR) framework, we show that the dynamics of the U.S. and UK swap spreads are best described by a regime‐switching model. We identify the existence of two distinct regimes in U.S. and UK swap spreads; one is characterized by a “flat” term structure of U.S. interest rates and the other is characterized by an “upward” sloping U.S. term structure. In addition, we show that there exist significant asymmetries on the impact of the common risk factors on the U.S. and UK swap spreads. Shocks to UK oriented risk factors have a strong effect on the U.S. swap markets during the “flat” slope regime but a very limited effect otherwise. On the other hand, U.S. risk factors have a significant impact on the UK swap markets in both regimes. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:221–250, 2004     

The emergence of co‐existing debt cycle regimes in an economic growth model

This paper aims to provide a modeling framework that keeps track of the interdependency between firms’ external financing structure and the state of the economy. Accordingly, it is based on the well‐known Kaleckian model which is combined with a modeling strategy of a sentiment index that was proposed by Franke (2012, 2014). The sentiment influences firms’ subjective sales expectations and thus their planned level of investment. As it turns out, the non‐linear model set‐up appears to be flexible in the sense that it is able to generate different interesting dynamic scenarios. It is shown that it may produce (a) sentiment‐driven business cycle fluctuations, including endogenously determined Minsky‐Koo‐kind recessions, and, more interestingly, (b) two distinct economic environments that exist contemporaneously: a ‘low‐’ and ‘high‐indebted’ regime.     

Scheduled announcements and volatility patterns: The effects of monetary policy committee announcements on LIBOR and short sterling futures and options

Both the UK spot and futures markets in short‐term interest rates are found to react strongly to surprises in the scheduled announcements of the repo rate and RPI. Therefore, these announcements should also affect the market for options on short‐term interest rate futures. Because the repo rate and RPI announcements are scheduled, the options market can predict the days on which announcement shocks may hit, and build this information into its volatility expectations. It is argued that the volatility used in pricing options should alter over time in a predictable nonlinear manner that varies with contract maturity and the number of forthcoming announcements; but is independent of announcement content. The empirical results support this hypothesis. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:773–797, 2003     

Japanese foreign direct investment in India: An institutional theory approach

This article charts the history of Japanese corporate engagement with India. While there has been a profound historic relationship between the two nations, economic interaction is commonly portrayed in the context of geographical and psychic distance. As institutions set the rules of corporate engagement, we analyse the evolving regulatory and policy regime for foreign direct investment (FDI) in post-independence India and the corporate strategies of Japanese multinational enterprises (MNEs) in response to this institutional change. Using a firm-level dataset we show that the trajectory of Japanese investment in India broadly follows that of other nationalities of foreign firms. Differentiated responses to institutional changes are detected by industry. Our analysis reveals important instances of Japanese firm flexibility and pragmatism vis-à-vis the rapidly growing Indian market.     

Dynamic analysis of a disequilibrium macroeconomic model with dual labor markets

We extend the general disequilibrium model of Malinvaud (1980) by using dual labor market theory. By considering two tiers of workers, we find that while the duality of the labor market expands an equilibrium regime in the short term, it does not always keep an equilibrium in the medium term. In the medium term, the business cycle converges toward a disequilibrium regime unless the goods market is potentially in equilibrium. Employment and wages at the steady state are affected by the size of the government expenditure, and the stability of wage bargaining is only a sufficient condition of the local stability of our dynamic system. Therefore, involuntary unemployment can be remedied only when goods demand is sufficiently large.     

Professional conduct and professional misconduct: A framework and its application to the accounting profession

Recently there has been increased attention paid to the behaviour of those who call themselves professionals. The idea of acceptable professional conduct incorporates the expectations of a number of groups affected by the activities of professionals. The framework of professional behaviour considered acceptable at a point in time is an equilibrium among these groups' expectations. This paper argues that shifts in the expectations of any of these groups will disturb this equilibrium. This process of disequilibrium and change leads to altered views of professional behaviour. Professional misconduct or unprofessional behaviour, that is, the failure to meet expectations, is inherent in the underlying framework of a profession.The framework is applied to the public (chartered) accounting profession, where the interacting groups are accounting professionals, their clients and the general public. Current issues of debate about professional behaviour are identifiable as consequences of altered expectations about acceptable behaviour. Acceptable conduct has become misconduct (and vice versa) and written rules of conduct conflict with unwritten rules.The paper concludes with two interrelated issues for further research. A new equilibrium is considered; and permanent change in the framework of the professions, the groups in the professional structure and the mechanisms of their interaction, is addressed.Ann Neale is a lecturer at The University of Auckland. Her research interests include the accounting profession, gender issues in accounting, in particular the position of women in the accounting profession, and professional ethics.     

The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market

We study the anatomy of recent financial crises in Mexico, East Asia, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina by investigating the efficiency and pricing of the emerging American depositary receipt (ADR) market. We use a non-parametric technique to test for persistent regime shifts in two basic structural relationships for ADR returns in 20 emerging countries — identified via arbitrage and capital mobility considerations — that should always hold in efficient and integrated capital markets. We find that those “normal” market conditions were instead often violated in proximity of financial crises: The law of one price often weakened (by 54% on average) and domestic sources of risk became more important (often by more than 100%) for many emerging ADRs. We also find the likelihood of these regime shifts to be related to proxies for uncertainty among investors, exchange rate volatility, trade linkages, and liquidity (but not stock market trends, currency devaluations, capital flight, or capital controls).