It happened again: A Minskian analysis of the subprime loan crisis

The advanced countries are now going through the worst crisis since the Depression, but today's dominant current theories and econometric models proved unable to predict the crisis. The paper investigates whether the financial instability hypothesis of Hyman P. Minsky offers a better explanation. Minsky argued that in a period of economic growth and tranquility economic agents are more prone to take risk, and banks are more willing to finance borrowers. Meanwhile, in the course of the boom over-indebtedness and financial innovations make the financial system more fragile, and more exposed to adverse effects. We show that both these effects made themselves felt in the subprime loan crisis. Specifically, the main determinants of the crisis have been the increasing appetite for risk and financial innovations. So, we conclude that, although this crisis differs in some of its features from previous crashes and from Minsky's account, the mechanisms underscored by Minsky were and are nevertheless at work.     

Charter value, Tobin's Q and bank risk during the subprime financial crisis

Charter value is important in the banking industry because of its ability to reduce the moral hazard incentives that result from government-provided deposit insurance. Previous research suggests that geographic deregulation in the 1970s and 1980s increased competition and eroded charter values. Yet, a common proxy for charter value, Tobin's Q, increased significantly in the 1990s and beyond even as bank deregulation continued. We show that Tobin's Q is a poor cardinal measure of charter value though it still has merit as an ordinal measure. Our findings suggest that charter value has been declining through time, contributing to the increase in risk-taking that led to the subprime financial crisis.     

Towards a theory of trade finance

Shipping goods internationally is risky and takes time. To allocate risk and to finance the time gap between production and sale, a range of payment contracts is utilized. I study the optimal choice between these payment contracts and their implications for trade. The equilibrium contract is determined by financial market characteristics and contracting environments in both the source and the destination country. Trade increases in enforcement probabilities and decreases in financing costs proportional to the time needed for trade. Empirical results from gravity regressions are in line with the model, highly significant and economically relevant. They suggest that importer finance is as important for trade as exporter finance.     

Enhancing market discipline in banking: The role of subordinated debt in financial regulatory reform

The increasing complexity of large financial firms has led to consideration of alternative regulatory structures. This has intensified recently because of the worldwide turmoil in financial markets. One important consideration has been to increase reliance on market discipline—most notably, increased reliance on subordinated debt (sub-debt) in the bank capital structure to discipline banks’ risk taking. This proposal, however, has been subject to criticism related to the quality of the signal generated in current sub-debt markets. We argue that previous studies evaluating the potential usefulness of sub-debt proposals have evaluated sub-debt spreads in a very different environment from that characterized by a fully implemented sub-debt program, where the market will become deeper, issuance will be more frequent, debt will be viewed as a more viable means to raise capital, bond dealers will be less reluctant to publicly disclose more details on debt transactions, and generally, the market will be more closely followed. As a test to see how the quality of the signal may change, we evaluate the risk-spread relationship—accounting for the enhanced liquidity and market transparency surrounding new debt issues. Our empirical results indicate a superior risk-spread relationship surrounding the period of new debt issuance due, we posit, to greater liquidity and transparency. Our results overall suggest that the degree of market discipline would be significantly enhanced by a mandatory sub-debt program, thus suggesting a potential role for sub-debt in the banking regulatory reform.     

The influence of bank ownership on credit supply: Evidence from the recent financial crisis

This study examines how bank ownership influenced the credit supply during the recent financial crisis in Russia, where the banking sector consists of a mix of state-controlled banks, foreign-owned banks, and domestic private banks. To estimate credit supply changes, we apply an original approach based on stochastic frontier analysis. We use quarterly data for Russian banks covering the period from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2009. Our findings suggest that bank ownership affected credit supply during the financial crisis and that the crisis led to an overall decrease in the credit supply. Relative to domestic private banks foreign-owned banks reduced their credit supply more and state-controlled banks less. This supports the hypothesis that foreign banks have a “lack of loyalty” to domestic actors during a crisis, as well as the view that an objective function of state-controlled banks leads them to support the economy during economic downturns.     

Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector

We use micro-level data to analyze emerging markets' private sector access to international debt markets during sovereign debt crises. We find that these crises are systematically accompanied by a decline in foreign credit to domestic private firms, both during debt renegotiations and for over two years after restructuring agreements are reached. This decline is large, statistically significant, and robust. We find that this effect is concentrated in the non-financial sector and is different for firms in the exporting and in the non-exporting sectors. We also find that the magnitude of the effect depends on the type of debt restructuring agreement.     

The impact of the financial and economic crisis on world trade and trade policy

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The impact of the financial and economic crisis on world trade and trade policy     

次贷危机后中美经贸合作博弈态势解构

中美经贸问题历来是我国学者关注的热点问题,目前随着美国次贷危机爆发并迅速演化为全球金融危机,全球经济格局呈现出其复杂多变的一面,理性思考中美经贸关系显得更为重要本文从全球经济失衡调整、全球金融体制改革、美国单边救市行为以及传统中美经贸问题等四个层面解析了目前中美经贸格局中存在的合作博弈态势,以期为后续研究提供借鉴.     

Institutional framework and capital structure of microfinance institutions

This article addresses the question of whether institutional frameworks matter in the capital structure of microfinance institutions. We studied a sample of 292 MFIs between 2004 and 2009. Our findings suggest that creditor rights, a country's legal tradition, and the level of financial sector development are significantly related to MFIs' level of external finance. Furthermore, the positive relationship between banking sector development and borrowings enables us to conclude that the microfinance sector and the formal banking sector are complementary. In addition, a split sample technique is used in order to assess the external validity of the model. Findings from this cross-validation strengthen the results obtained from the whole sample and indicate that our model seems to predict well the effect of institutional variables on the capital structure of MFIs.     

Cross-border banking,credit access,and the financial crisis

We study the sensitivity of credit supply to bank financial conditions in 16 emerging European countries before and during the financial crisis. We use survey data on 10,701 applicant and non-applicant firms that enable us to disentangle effects driven by positive and negative shocks to the banking system from demand shocks that may vary across lenders. We find strong evidence that firms' access to credit was affected by changes in the financial conditions of their banks. During the crisis firms were more credit constrained if they were dealing with banks that experienced a decline in equity and Tier 1 capital, as well as losses on financial assets. We also find that access to credit reflects the balance sheet conditions of foreign parent banks. The effect of positive and negative shocks to a bank is greater for riskier firms and firms with fewer tangible assets.     

Business cycles and monetary regimes in emerging economies: A role for a monopolistic banking sector

This study shows that the presence of imperfect competition in the banking system propagates external shocks and amplifies the business cycle. Strategic limit pricing, aimed at protecting retail niches from potential competitors, generates countercyclical bank markups. Markup increments during recessions directly increase borrowing costs for firms and indirectly damage the financial position of firms' balance-sheets, increasing the risk perception of lenders. I use Bayesian techniques and data from Argentina to show that the inclusion of monopolistic banking improves the fit of the New Keynesian small open economy model.     

The roles of news and volatility in stock market correlations during the global financial crisis

The global financial crisis has again brought the interdependencies of international financial markets to the fore, particularly during times of financial crises. This paper explores the relative roles of news and volatility in explaining the changes in correlations between national stock markets during the global financial crisis. Our results show that the majority of the correlations are more strongly explained by volatility rather than news. However as the global financial crisis evolves the relative role of news grows in importance.     

Trade Credit,Bank Credit,and Flight to Quality: Evidence from French SMEs

This paper investigates the impact of the global financial crisis on the allocation of credit to small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs). Using samples of French SMEs from four industries, we found support for the prediction of the flight‐to‐quality hypothesis that in bad times, credit flows away from smaller constrained firms to larger, higher grade firms. We also examined the relation between bank credit and trade credit in terms of two hypotheses: the substitution hypothesis and the complementary hypothesis. The results of fixed effects panel regressions showed that trade credit for small firms during periods of tight money acts generally as complement rather than substitute to bank credit, thus providing empirical support for the redistribution view of trade credit.     

Bank credit,public financial incentives,tax financial incentives and export performance during the global financial crisis

This paper investigates the extent to which access to credit, public financial incentives and tax financial incentives affect export performance using the EU-EFIGE/Bruegel-Unicredit data set, covering firms within Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Hungary and the UK during the 2008 global financial crisis. The results show that firms receiving credit or benefiting from public financial incentives display higher export intensity and export a greater number of product lines compared to those that did not, especially in countries with better access to credit and/or financial incentives during the crisis. Further, firms benefiting from tax financial incentives show a better export performance compared to those that did not, regardless of the degree of access to credit and/or financial incentives in the country in which they operate. In addition, the effect of access to credit and public finance incentives on export performance is found to be size-dependent, while the effect of tax financial incentives is not. We suggest that governments should promote publicly funded financial incentives along with conventional schemes, such as R&D subsidies, to promote exports, particularly during a period of financial crisis.     

浅析次贷危机对中国资本市场的影响及启示

2007年爆发次贷危机后,全球金融市场都受到很大的影响,我国的资本市场亦然.而我国作为新兴市场国家,资本市场亟待建设和完善,有必要从这次次贷危机中汲取发达国家资本市场的经验和教训.     

CEO incentives and bank risk

We investigate the relationship between CEO compensation and bank default risk predictors to determine if short-term incentives can explain recent excesses in bank risk. We investigate early warning off-site surveillance parameters and expected default frequency (EDF) as well as crisis-related risky bank activities. We find only modest evidence that CEO compensation structures promote significant firm-specific heterogeneity in bank risk measures or risky activities. Compensation elements commonly thought to be the riskiest components, unvested options and bonuses, are either insignificant or negatively correlated with common risk variables, and only positively significant in predicting the level of trading assets and securitization income.     

Globalization and financial development: A model of the Dot-Com and the Housing Bubbles

In the last decade the United States experienced the burst of the Dot-Com and the Housing Bubbles. I develop a model to study the relationship between globalization and the emergence of rational bubbles. I also analyze how the effect of globalization on house prices depends on the type of bubble. I show that bubbles cannot arise in a financially developed country in autarky. In contrast, as globalization progresses, bubbles are more likely to appear in the financially developed country. I also show that house prices increase with globalization only when the bubble is attached to houses. This prediction is consistent with empirical evidence for U.S. metropolitan areas.     

The role of innovation in driving the economy: Lessons from the global financial crisis

The global financial crisis hit nearly every country in the world, devastating their economies, decimating the financial resources of their companies and citizens, and nearly collapsing the banking systems in their countries. While risky financial instruments and bad home lending practices receive much of the blame for this downturn, too few innovations introduced in the years leading up to the crisis also contribute to this collapse or, at a minimum, deepening the resulting recession. This paper draws on theoretical literature and contemporary media accounts, building the argument for a significant impact of innovations on the economy and its potential role in pulling the US economy out of the financial crisis. The paper develops propositions based on this review and discusses implications for staving off future economic difficulties.     

Trade credit and determinants of profitability in Europe. The case of the agri-food industry

The objective of this paper is to analyse the effect that trade credit has on the determinants of profitability during the crisis period in Europe. We use panel data for a total of 24,177 European agri-food companies from 2010 to 2014. Among our main contributions, we highlight that we isolate the sector effect and study the country effect by separating the different policies and customs with respect to the granting of trade credit. The results confirm, in general, that trade credit affects profitability depending on the country and the characteristics of size, specificity, market power or reputation.